Korean Peninsula
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1. DPRK Missile Program
The Russian news agency ITAR-TASS reported that sources in the DPRK has said that North Korea had confirmed its intention not to launch long-range missiles. Leon Sigal said that he believes the DPRK is about to agree a new deal on its missile program that could see aid “compensation” of between US$1-2 billion dollars, but warned that there would not be major changes in the DPRK as long as the ruling Workers’ Party seeks to maintain its hold on the country.
“Missile Threats” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34)
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 19, US)
Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono held talks with Belgium’s Deputy Prime Minister Michel Louis ahead of ministerial meetings to prepare the third Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM). Kono welcomed rapidly unfolding Korean peace moves and called on the international community to press the DPRK to resolve the issues of its suspected missile program and nuclear arms development.
“Japanese View of DPRK Diplomacy” (Daily Report, October 19, US) |
2. Light-Water Reactors Project
ROK Representative Kim Deog-ryong claimed that the ROK and the US had reached a “secret” agreement to replace one of the two nuclear reactors they are building in the DPRK with a thermal power plant. Nucleonics Week quoted diplomatic sources as saying that US and Japanese officials considered modifying the DPRK light-water reactor project to build a fossil-fueled plant instead.
“Light-Water Reactor Construction” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (Daily Report, October 19, US) |
3. DPRK Military
The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) warned Thursday that the DPRK’s gradual emergence from its isolated shell could strain ties between DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and the military.
“DPRK Military” (Daily Report, October 19, US) |
4. ROK Military
The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) said that the improved climate on the Korean peninsula had not affected military spending in the ROK.
“ROK Military Spending” (Daily Report, October 19, US) |
5. ROK-US Military Talks
The ROK and the US have almost completed a deal that enables the ROK not only to produce and deploy missiles with a 300-km range and 500-kg warhead, but also to develop missiles with a range of up to 500 km for research purposes.
“ROK-US Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 18, ROK)
“ROK-US Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 16, ROK)
The ROK and the US reaffirmed the importance of the ROK-US security alliance and the need to revise the SOFA as soon as possible to reinforce that alliance. The two delegations had useful and substantial discussions on several significant issues.
“US-ROK Status of Forces” (Daily Report, October 20, US) |
6. US-DPRK Diplomacy: Cho, Albright, Clinton
At the end of a visit to US by DPRK Vice-Marshal Cho Myong-rok, the US and DPRK issued a joint statement declaring that two countries are determined to adopt measures to improve bilateral relations and to promote peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhu Bangzao said that the PRC hopes that Cho’s visit can finally thaw relations between the two sides.
“US-DPRK Joint Statement” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
“PRC View over US-DPRK Ties” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said she would make an historic trip to the DPRK from October 23-24 to meet DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. An advance party of forty US officials crossed into the DPRK via Panmunjom to prepare her visit, led by Thomas Hubbard, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. After her visit to the DPRK, she will meet in the ROK with foreign ministers from the ROK and Japan to coordinate policies toward the DPRK. Albright’s visit is believed to pave the way for a trip by US President Bill Clinton.
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 18, US)
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“ROK-US-Japan Talks on DPRK” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
“Albright’s DPRK Trip” (Daily Report, October 20, US)
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK) |
7. ROK-DPRK Economic Relations
The ROK and the DPRK failed to begin working-level economic talks set to open Wednesday in Pyongyang, as the DPRK asked for the meeting to be postponed. There had been mounting suspicions that the DPRK could be stalling joint projects with the ROK while concentrating on its rapprochement with the US. ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that he completely supports and welcomes progress in US-DPRK relations.
“Inter-Korean Relations” (Daily Report, October 18, ROK)
“DPRK-ROK Economic Talks” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“ROK View on DPRK-US Ties” (Daily Report, October 17, ROK)
“ROK View of DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency said in a report that the removal of the DPRK from the US list of terrorism-sponsoring states would contribute to the economic development of that country and the expansion of trade with the ROK.
“ROK-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
The Korea Development Institute, an ROK think tank, and the London Business School will jointly introduce a program to provide academic assistance and practical training for market-driven development for DPRK economic officials based on the national economic development model that has been run by the ROK since 1960.
“DPRK Economic Training” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
Representative Eom Ho-sung claimed that ROK investments amounting to US$5.2 million have little chance of being recovered. An official at the ROK Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOICE) said that if the DPRK were to propose joint exploration for crude oil or natural gas reserves in its waters, the ROK government would not hesitate to encourage domestic businesses, the Korea Petroleum Corporation, and foreign firms to form a consortium to undertake exploration.
“Investment in DPRK” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK)
“DPRK Maritime Development” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK) |
8. DPRK-Japan Talks
Hidenao Nakagawa, the chief cabinet secretary, said Japan and the DPRK will hold another round of normalization talks at the end of the month in Beijing. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori said that Japan had no plans to immediately follow Britain and Germany’s move in opening relations with the DPRK until the DPRK has given reassurances over its missile program. The Japanese government admitted that Mori met a Korean journalist alleged to have delivered a secret letter from Mori to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il in August, but denied that Mori sent any letter to Kim.
“DPRK-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
“Japan-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 20, Japan)
“DPRK-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“DPRK-Japanese Relations” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
“Japan-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 20, US)
“Japanese Prime Minister’s Letter to Kim Jong-il” (Daily Report, October 20, Japan)Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori said he proposed to the DPRK to solve the abduction issue by making up a story that the abducted Japanese civilians were discovered in a third country, such as the PRC.
“DPRK Abduction Issue” (Daily Report, October 20, Japan) |
9. PRC Diplomacy
Railway freight services between the DPRK and the PRC may have been suspended, giving rise to speculation that this is a security precaution for a visit to the DPRK by PRC leader Jiang Zemin.
“Jiang Zemin’s Alleged DPRK Visit” (Daily Report, October 19, US)
During talks with ROK President Kim Dae-jung, PRC Premier Zhu Rongji promised to play a “constructive role” in attempts to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The two agreed to expand ties between their countries. Zhu reportedly expressed support for Kim’s proposal that the ROK, DPRK, US, and PRC work together to establish a permanent Korean peace mechanism.
“PRC View of Korean Peninsula” (Daily Report, October 18, US)
“PRC’s View on Korean Peninsula” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
“ROK-PRC Talks” (Daily Report, October 18, ROK)
“ROK-PRC Talks” (Daily Report, October 17, ROK)
Xinhua News Agency reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel Peace Prize on October 13 for his drive for democracy and closer ties with the DPRK.
“Kim Dae-jung Wins Nobel Peace Prize” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC) |
10. DPRK in Asian Regional Institutions
The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) member countries, prior to their scheduled October 20-21 meeting, have agreed to revise a document which guides the ASEM process to allow the DPRK to participate in its projects. The ROK and the PRC have each proposed language on weapons of mass destruction. ASEM adopted the “Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula,” supporting the rapprochement process between the ROK and the DPRK. The European Union also pledged financial support to the DPRK, including a US$17 million aid package to develop farming, a relaxation of restrictions on DPRK textile imports, and plans to send EU experts to improve forestry, coal mining and management.
“Asia-Europe Meeting” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
“Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM)” (Daily Report, October 18, ROK)
“ROK-PRC Talks” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“ASEM Resolution on Korean Peninsula” (Daily Report, October 20, US)
A three-day conference of the Inter-session Support Group on Confidence Building Measures is scheduled to open in Seoul November 1, attended by about 100 officials from 23 member countries of the security-oriented ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The DPRK is unlikely to attend.
“DPRK’s Participation in ARF” (Daily Report, October 17, ROK) |
11. DPRK Foreign Relations: Russia, European Union
A Russian Foreign Ministry official was quoted as saying that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il would visit Moscow at the beginning of next year.
“DPRK-Russian Relations” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
Britain and Germany announced that they would establish relations with the DPRK. The Netherlands was expected to announce that it planned to follow Great Britain and Germany in opening up diplomatic relations with the DPRK. However, a senior French diplomat said that his government believes that the moves were “premature.” The Belgian foreign ministry on Thursday also criticized such moves, saying it should be left to the European Union (EU) presidency “to take the initiative in this matter.”
“DPRK-British Relations” (Daily Report, October 19, US)
“DPRK-UK Relations” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK)
“DPRK-German Relations” (Daily Report, October 19, US)
“DPRK-Germany Relations” (Daily Report, October 19, ROK)
“DPRK-EU Relations” (Daily Report, October 20, US)
“EU-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK) |
12. Inter-Korean Projects
ROK Defense Ministry said that the military has cleared land mines in about 190,000 square meters of land south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) for the inter-Korean rail link and adjacent highway projects. The figure represents about 44 percent of the total area needed.
“Inter-Korean Project” (Daily Report, October 18, ROK)
The UN Command (UNC) has delivered a letter to the DPRK relegating its negotiating power to the ROK military concerning safety measures for inter-Korean projects in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The DPRK’s stated their desire to sign an accord on the delegation of jurisdiction in the Demilitarized Zone directly with the UN Command (UNC), demonstrating that the DPRK may be trying to bypass the ROK and deal with the US directly under its traditional foreign policy.
“Inter-Korean Project in the DMZ” (Daily Report, October 16, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Relations” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK) |
13. Humanitarian Assistance to DPRK
A team of ROK doctors from Shinchon Severance Hospital will visit the DPRK’s Pyongyang Medical University and conduct operations on DPRK patients for the first time since the partition of the Korean peninsula.
“ROK Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 17, ROK)
The ROK criticized the DPRK’s for delays in inter-Korean humanitarian exchanges and called for the DPRK to speed up preparations for reunions of separated family members.
“Reunion of Separated Families” (Daily Report, October 20, ROK) |
China
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1. PRC Proliferation
A senior Ministry of External Affairs official said that the PRC was a problem for India, not because of the disputed border, but because of the PRC’s sale of missiles and nuclear materials to Pakistan.
“Foreign Relations: PRC, ASEAN” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38) |
2. Alleged PRC Espionage
A senior US official said that a new review of PRC military documents has led US intelligence agencies to conclude that PRC espionage has gathered more US missile technology than nuclear weapons secrets. The documents from the 1980’s showed that the PRC had gathered classified information about US ballistic missiles and reentry vehicles, most likely from defense officials or missile builders and not from US nuclear weapons labs.
“Alleged PRC Espionage” (Daily Report, October 19, US) |
3. PRC Security Policy
The PRC Information Office of the State Council released a white paper on the PRC’s policies on national defense and international security issues on October 16. It stressed that the PRC pursues a national defense policy that is defensive in nature and the main aspects of defense policy are consolidating national defense, resisting aggression, curbing armed subversion, and defending state sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity and security. US scholars and former US military officials, including George Washington University’s David Shambaugh and retired US Navy Rear Admiral Eric McVadon, praised the white paper and said that the PRC has made progress towards meeting demands for transparency in its military planning to minimize the potential for conflict in Asia.
“PRC National Defence White Paper” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
“PRC Defense White Paper” (Daily Report, October 16, US)
“US View of PRC White Paper” (Daily Report, October 16, US)
“PRC Defense White Paper” (Daily Report, October 18, US)
White House National Security Adviser Sandy Berger on Thursday played down the threat in a PRC defense white paper on Monday to use “drastic force” to prevent Taiwan from moving toward independence.
“US View of PRC Threat to Taiwan” (Daily Report, October 20, US)
Philippine Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado said on Thursday that the PRC is initiating military-level dialogues with countries that claim the Spratly group of islands in the South China Sea.
“Spratly Islands” (Daily Report, October 20, US)
A PRC military think tank weighed in on the US presidential elections Tuesday warning that if Republican candidate George W. Bush wins next month’s vote he would undermine the “one China” policy, destabilize the global balance of power and restart the Cold War.
“PRC View of US Election” (Daily Report, October 17, US) |
4. PRC Military
PRC President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission Jiang Zemin, with other over 100 military generals, observed a four-day military exercise by 10,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Taiwanese military authorities dismissed fears that the PRC’s biggest military exercise in 36 years posed a threat, saying that it was not targeting the island.
“PRC Military Show” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
“PRC Military Exercises” (Daily Report, October 18, US)
The PRC Defense Ministry has officially applied to the Russian government to purchase two Type-956 destroyers from the Russian Navy. If the contract is concluded, the PRC Navy will have four Type-956 destroyers.
“Russian Military Sales to PRC” (Daily Report, October 19, US) |
5. Cross-Straits Relations
Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian urged the PRC to stop threatening the island and adopt a “sunshine policy,” a term borrowed from ROK president Kim Dae-jung. Within the past few months, more than a third of the 221 members of Taiwan’s legislature have traveled to PRC at its invitation. Taiwan Premier Chang Chun-hsiung, in his first state-of-the-nation address to parliament, said, “The moment for reconciliation has come. The two sides must replace criticism and invective with rational dialogue.”
“Cross-Straits Relations” (Daily Report, October 18, US)
“Cross-Straits Relations” (Daily Report, October 16, US) |
6. PRC Premier’s Japan Visit
PRC Premier Zhu Rongji received poor press reviews in Japan on the final day of his six-day visit; the issue of Japan’s wartime atrocities in China soured a ground-breaking visit that was otherwise applauded as a success. The two countries formally launched a telephone hotline between the two governments, and agreed to strengthen and expand dialogue on bilateral security issues, increase military exchanges, and realize exchange visits of navy vessels. However, Zhu warned Japan of repercussions if it allowed former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui to go ahead with his plan to visit this year.
“PRC Premier’s Japan Visit” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“PRC-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, October 16, US)
“Cross-Straits Relations ” (Daily Report, October 17, US)
“PRC-Japanese Relations” (Daily Report, October 17, PRC)
PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan told his Japanese counterpart Yohei Kono on the sidelines of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) on Friday that the PRC opposed Japan’s plan to join the US Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system.
“PRC View of Japanese Participation in TMD” (Daily Report, October 20, US) |
Japan
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1. Japanese Domestic Politics
Yasuhisa Shiozaki, head of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s foreign relations panel, criticized Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono on Wednesday over the cost of proposed rice aid to the DPRK, demanding that he quit if he does not know how much the aid will cost the Japanese taxpayer.
“Japanese Food Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 18, US) |
2. Japan-PRC Relations
The Japanese government decided on October 18 not to issue a visa for Lee Teng Hui, former Taiwan leader.
“Former Taiwan Leader’s Visit to Japan” (Daily Report, October 20, Japan)
Japanese Cabinet Secretary Hidenao Nakagawa said on October 17 that Japan has no plans to make any further written apologies to the PRC for its wartime aggression. PRC Prime Minister Zhu Rongji said Japan has never officially apologized to the PRC and he does not intend to demand such an apology.
“Japanese-PRC Issue of History” (Daily Report, October 20, Japan) |
3. Japanese Peacekeeping
US Ambassador to Tokyo Thomas Foley said that the 5 principles of Japanese peacekeeping operations constrain Japan’s further contribution to international peace. Foley expressed his expectation that the principles be revised.
“US View on Japanese Peacekeeping” (Daily Report, October 20, Japan) |
Nuclear Weapons
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1. US Nuclear Program
The US National Ignition Facility project will continue development after Congress this week nearly tripled its original budget for the 2001 fiscal year. The US Navy awarded Lockheed Martin a contract for the production of 12 Trident II D5 fleet ballistic missiles to modernize four strategic submarines operating in the Pacific.
“US Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
2. Russian Nuclear Program
Russia had conducted three sub-critical nuclear weapons tests this year compared with eight in 1999. Russia conducted a second test of its Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile. Russia’s strategic nuclear forces faces the decline of maintenance and the ending of modernization in the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, the Navy, the Air Force, and command-and-control capabilities.
“Russian Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
3. Russian Nuclear Policy
Lawrence Freedman argues that the NATO air dominance over Yugoslavia increased Russia’s reliance on its deterrent force, dangerous because of the small Russian budget that is devoted to the nuclear weapons program and therefore maintaining the deterrent.
“Deterrence” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34)
Russian intentions behind the Memorandum of Understanding signed with India on atomic energy imply a message to other nuclear weapons states regarding the futility of their blockade of India or any other aspiring nuclear power.
“Indian Nuclear Energy Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38) |
4. Nuclear Policy in South Asia
Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said that despite the economic problems created by sanctions, India would not give up its nuclear program. US Republican candidate for president, George W Bush, has indicated that if elected, he will lift sanctions against India and will not press India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38)
Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf said Pakistan would use its nuclear weapons against India if Pakistan’s security was jeopardized.
“Pakistan Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38) |
US National Missile Defense (NMD)
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1. NMD Test
The US Defense Department conducted two tests of elements of the proposed NMD system in preparation for another attempt to shoot down a target in space.
“NMD System Tests” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
2. NMD Diplomacy
A new report from BASIC concludes that the next election in Britain is less likely to affect the NMD issue than the outcome of the US presidential elections in November.
“Missile Defense Diplomacy: UK” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34)
The October/November edition of Arms Control Today included essays on the proposed US NMD program by several experts on US foreign policy.
“NMD Commentary: US” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
3. NMD and Arms Control
Arms control issues have returned to the forefront as a result of the debate over NMD. Several arms control experts offer their perspectives.
“US Debate on Arms Control” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
Arms Control
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1. US-Russian Arms Control Talks
US President Bill Clinton and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to the “Strategic Stability Cooperation Initiative,” which reaffirms several arms control goals. Undersecretary of state for arms control and international security John Holum met with a Russian team led by Yuri Kapralov, head of the Russian arms control directorate, to discuss nuclear weapons cutbacks under a START III agreement and the proposed US NMD system.
“US-Russian Arms Control Talks” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
2. NATO Policy on Arms Control
BASIC reports argue that NATO has been unable to convince other states that its arms control efforts are as comprehensive as possible, and another stated that NATO defense ministers should discuss NATO nuclear policy and the proposed US NMD system.
“NATO Nuclear Policy” (NPP Flash, V.2 #34) |
South Asia
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1. Indian Policy on Pakistan
C Raja Mohan argues that Indian policy toward Pakistan cannot be based on anticipation of Pakistan’s imminent collapse because it is the threat of collapse that leaves Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf as the source of stability in Pakistan and gives Pakistan leverage over the international community.
“Security Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38) |
2. Sri Lankan Election Results
The party of Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga, the ruling People’s Alliance (PA), won 107 of 225 seats in the October 11 parliamentary elections, and has been asked by Kumaratunga to form a government. The opposition United National Party won 89 seats. Commentary on the election said that Kumaratunga will have difficulty pushing her devolution proposals through the parliament because of the narrow majority she will have once a ruling coalition is formed.
“Election Results” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38)
“Election Commentary” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38)
Former Prime Minister of Sri Lanka Sirimavo Bandaranaike, the world’s first female prime minister and mother of President Chandrika Kumaratunga, died shortly after the election.
“Bandarnaike Funeral” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38) |
3. Afghanistan
The India-Russia joint statement called for stronger sanctions against the Taliban, highlighting the importance of the situation for regional stability. Atul Aneja suggests that if the Taliban sweeps Afghanistan, they are more likely to focus on entrenching their power domestically than on spreading revolution to Central Asia or Kashmir.
“Afghanistan” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #38)
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