NAPSNET Week in Review 18 May, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 18 May, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 18, 2001,


1. US Policy towards DPRK

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher urged the DPRK to continue its moratorium on missile tests and said, “We will conduct our review in a thorough manner and we’ll anticipate completing it in a timely fashion.” US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage stated that it is the DPRK’s financial problems that are driving it to sell missiles and missile technology. ROK officials and analysts said that the US is unlikely to dismantle the framework of the engagement policy toward the DPRK pushed under former President Bill Clinton.
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)
“DPRK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)
“US Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, ROK)

The DPRK threatened to pull out of a 1994 nuclear deal with the US, saying the US has failed to uphold terms of the Agreed Framework. Due to funding and contractual problems, as well as political tensions, completion of the reactors have been delayed by several years. The DPRK claimed that if the US failed to compensate its nation for the loss from the delayed construction of two light water reactor, it would have to resort to reviving the old graphite reactor.
“DPRK Warning on Agreed Framework” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)
“DPRK on Missile Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, ROK)

An ROK government source said that DPRK’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan will visit the US early next month to attend a seminar on the Korean Peninsula.
“DPRK Officer to Visit US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, ROK)

2. Commentary on US Policy towards DPRK

An opinion article by James P. Rubin, former assistant secretary of state under President Clinton and currently teaching US foreign policy at the London School of Economics, said that US President George W. Bush is right to focus world attention on new threats we all face from the spread of missiles and nuclear weapons, but his administration’s approach to DPRK missiles raises some troubling questions.
“Commentary on US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, US)

Edwin J. Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation, said that a reduction in the number of DPRK troops deployed along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) should lead the agenda for future talks between the US and the DPRK.
“US on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, ROK)

Victor Gilinsky, former US nuclear regulatory commissioner and Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center argue that the US Bush administration cannot put off the verification of the DPRK’s compliance with the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The authors argue that, “Insisting on starting the verification process now is critical to sound relations with Pyongyang and the only sure way to reduce North Korea’s potential for mass destruction.” The authors also noted that it appears that US allies think that when there is immense pressure, the US will compromise on the verification process rather than risk further antagonizing the DPRK.
“Commentary on Agreed Framework” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

3. EU-DPRK Relations

The EU representative office in the ROK announced on Monday that the European Union (EU) decided to establish formal diplomatic relations with the DPRK. The European Commission said Monday that it hopes its decision to establish diplomatic ties with the DPRK will prompt an early start to a dialogue on human rights.
“EU-DPRK Diplomatic Ties” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

4. ROK-DPRK Talks at ASEAN

ROK diplomatic sources said that the two Koreas and the US do not intend to hold formal talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Diplomats said Monday that the PRC and the DPRK were expected to confront the US over its planned missile defense system when officials meet in Vietnam for an ASEAN Regional Forum this week. ROK Unification Minister Lim Dong-Won, one of the architects of a historic inter-Korean summit last year, said he had urged a top US official to resume talks with the aim of setting up normal relations with the DPRK.
“ASEAN Forum” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, ROK)
“US-DPRK Talks at ASEAN” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)
“PRC-DPRK Missile Defense Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)
“ROK Presses US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, US)

DPRK and ROK representatives held an unofficial meeting before the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Ri Young-ho, a DPRK Foreign Ministry official, told the press, “The attitude of the United States is so hard-line that it obstructs inter-Korean dialogue. The timing of the dialogue will be decided after watching the attitude of the United States.” The DPRK’s Radio Pyongyang claimed Thursday that the US should take responsibility if the Mount Keumgang tourism project is suspended.
“DPRK on Talks with US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, ROK)
“DPRK on Keumgang Tourism” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, ROK)

5. ROK-US Relations

The ROK Joint News Agency published a commentary that said that the US failure in the UN Human Rights Committee election is a result of its national egoistic activity.
“ROK Media on US Human Rights Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)

An ROK government official said that US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will visit the ROK as early as July to discuss issues of mutual concern, including the new US defense policy.
“ROK-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, ROK)

6. Inter-Korean Relations

The ROK government is busily preparing to resume by late May the inter-Korean dialogue that has been stalled since the cancellation of the fifth cabinet-level talks on March 13.
“Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, ROK)

7. Russia on Korean Peninsula

ROK National Assembly Speaker Lee Man-sup has proposed parliamentary talks involving Russia and both Koreas to promote economic cooperation among the three nations.
“Russia on Inter-Korean Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, ROK)

The DPRK has sent a ranking official to Moscow to negotiate a contract to buy weapons in a follow-up to their defense agreement signed in late April.
“DPRK-Russia Arms Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, ROK)

An ROK state official said schedule coordination is underway for PRC President Jiang Zemin to visit the DPRK this fall.
“DPRK-PRC Talks Expected” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, ROK)

8. DPRK Humanitarian Conditions

DPRK Deputy Foreign Minister Choe Su Hon at a UNICEF conference presented a report which said famine and economic collapse cut the life expectancy of DPRK Nationals by more than six years in the 1990’s. Choe stated that 220,000 people died of famine for past four years in the DPRK from 1995-1998.

“DPRK Condition Report” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)
“DPRK Famine” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, ROK)

US State Department officials said it will donate 100,000 tons of food to the United Nations’ World Food Program for distribution in the DPRK despite the nation’s sales of missile technology to Iran and other rogue nations.
“US Food Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark said on Tuesday her country will donate US$84,000 to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in the DPRK.
“New Zealand Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, US)


1. US Strategic Planning in Asia

A confidential US Defense Department strategy review directed by Andrew W. Marshall has cast the Pacific as the most important region for military planners and calls for the development of new long-range arms to counter the PRC military power. The review concluded that US bases in the Pacific are likely to become increasingly vulnerable as the PRC and other potential adversaries develop more accurate missiles. Admiral Dennis C. Blair, the head of the US Pacific Command. While supporting the call for change, criticized the review, stating that the PRC will present less of a military threat to US military bases and naval forces in the region.
“US Strategic Planning in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)

Admiral Dennis C. Blair, the head of the US Pacific Command spoke in a May 16 press roundtable in Bangkok, Thailand, said the key question for the Asia-Pacific region is whether or not the PRC will develop its power and influence “in a cooperative way that follows international rules.” Singapore’s senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew said in an interview Friday that the PRC is going to become a major player in the world and there is nothing the US can do to prevent it. Lee said the biggest threats to global stability will be “the challenges to the status quo from China and India” while the “tinderbox” is Islamic extremism coupled with “a Muslim nuclear weapon that will travel.”
“US Military View of PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, US)
“Lee Kuan Yew’s View of PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, US)

According to a US Defense Department sponsored study by the Rand Corporation released on May 14, the US should shift the focus of its military presence in Asia toward the Philippines and other nations closer to Taiwan. The study recommended creating new arrangements in Southeast Asia to give the US military access to ports and airfields that could be used to support Taiwan if PRC attacked. US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld announced last week that Japan will become the pivotal player in the new US global security strategy.
“US Military Focus in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, US)
“Japan in US Global Security Strategy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

Business Week- Asia Edition reported that US President George W. Bush’s plan to redraw the Asian region’s security map have caused leaders in the PRC and defense analysts around the Pacific Rim to view the US action as the coordination of a region-wide effort to check the growing PRC military might.
“US Strategy in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, US)

PRC Ambassador to the US, Yang Jiechi, told reporters that the PRC was not a threat to the US. Yang said, “I believe at the moment there are problems in the relationship. The major problem now is how to view China. Any idea regarding China as a threat does not square with reality.”
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)

2. US Spy-plane Incident

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi stated on May 10 that PRC and the US are planning to hold additional talks on the US EP-3 spy plane. The Washington Times has learned that the PRC learned important US intelligence-gathering capabilities from the downed US Navy reconnaissance plane, including that US eavesdroppers can identify individual PRC military officers by the sound of their voices.
“US Spy-plane Incident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, US)
“PRC View on Air Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)

3. PRC Military Exercises

The Washington Times reported that the PRC is preparing to conduct large-scale military exercises in the South China Sea from Hainan and Woody Island. US defense officials said preparations for the exercises, including amphibious warfare drills, were detected by US intelligence agencies over the past two weeks.
“PRC Military Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)

4. PRC Foreign Policy

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reports that the PRC is struggling to cope with huge social change at home and a major upheaval in foreign policy caused by developments in the US, Taiwan and the ROK. The report said the PRC was distracted during 2000 by “an accelerating drift” by Taiwan towards independence and a realignment in power in North Asia following the rapprochement on the Korean peninsula.
“PRC Foreign Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)

5. Taiwan-US Relations

Analysts said that Taiwan and the US are enjoying better relations and exploiting the shift in perspective created by changes in both administrations.
“US Relations with Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Monday that the US will give Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian a visa to transit on his way to Latin America later this month.
“US Grants Taiwan President Transit Visa” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

6. Cross-Strait Relations

Experts say that if the trend continues of social and economic integration between the PRC and Taiwan, Taiwan’s government will soon be unable to afford antagonizing the PRC, and that the cost to the PRC of attacking Taiwan may become prohibitive.
“Cross-Strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, US)

Su Chi, former chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), told a seminar on May 13 sponsored by the leading opposition Kuomintang that he had been told by his successor Tsai Ing-wen that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government was continuing to implement the statehood policy which has enraged the PRC.
“Cross-Strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said in a video-taped address that he hoped to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shanghai in October and hold talks with PRC president Jiang Zemin.
“Cross-Strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, US)


1. Japanese Constitution Revision

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said on May 10 that Japan’s anti-war constitution was not immutable and promised to take a hard look at the controversial question of expanding the role of Japan’s military.
“Japanese Constitution Revision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)

2. Japan’s Role in Asia

Japan’s trade ministry said in its annual white paper released on Friday that Japan’s role as a leader of industry in East Asia is waning as the PRC’s economic growth boosts its competitive power in the region.
“Japan’s Role in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 18, US)

South Asia

1. US Sanctions Against India

US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met in India with Indian officials to consult on missile defense, but also sought assurances that India would limit its nuclear weapons development program to enable the Bush administration to end sanctions against India.
“US-India Security Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

2. Regional Security Issues

Jyotsna Bakshi examines the implications for India of the changing role of Russia and the PRC in Central Asia. Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee and Tajikistan President Emomali Sharifovich Rakhmonov signed five agreements and a joint declaration on their bilateral relations. Sanjana Joshi writes that India is expanding its security perimeter to areas of the Asia-Pacific where it comes into contact with Japan’s similarly expanding security perimeter.
“Regional Security Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

3. Pakistan-PRC Economic Relations

PRC Premier Zhu Rongji visited Pakistan as part of a five-nation tour of Asia. Pakistan and the PRC are expected to sign seven agreements improving their economic relations. The PRC Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation announced that it was ending ‘soft’ loans to Pakistan and would instead be offering concessional state loans.
“Pakistan-PRC Economic Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

4. Sri Lankan Peace Process

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar took a step towards peace talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by asking Norway to assist in arranging a pre-negotiations truce with the LTTE.
“Peace Process” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)


1. Russian Early-Warning System

Geoffrey Forden writes that of the four known recent, false alerts for nuclear war, all four show the importance of both the US and Russia having reliable space-based early-warning systems.
“Russian Early-Warning System” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

Nuclear Weapons

1. NATO Nuclear Policy

BASIC issued an article exploring the relationship between the likely 2002 NATO enlargement and the resulting increase in importance of the ‘nuclear umbrella’ for continued security in Europe.
“NATO Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

2. Indian Minimal Deterrent

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee stated that India would support US plans for nuclear arms cuts, but reiterated India’s goal of deploying a minimum nuclear deterrent as a basic security umbrella. India’s Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) stated in its annual report that it would continue development of a “minimum” nuclear deterrent.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

3. Algerian Nuclear Program

David Albright and Corey Hinderstein write in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that Algeria’s nuclear program appears too extensive for civilian needs.
“Algerian Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

4. Nuclear Policies

Jasjit Singh, Director of the New Delhi-based Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, discusses India’s nuclear command and control options. P.K. Gosh, a Research Fellow with the New Delhi-based Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, argues that most nuclear states are now moving towards a minimalist deterrent force with implications for their force structures.

“South Asian Nuclear Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

Missile Defense

1. Bush Speech on Missile Defense

The Acronym Institute released a document with the full text of US President Bush’s speech outlining US intentions on missile defense and arms control. Accompanying are relevant excerpts of statements by officials in the Bush administration, US Congressmen, and heads of foreign governments and international institutions.
“US Missile Defense Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

The Council for a Livable World said in a statement that President Bush’s speech on missile defense on May 1 only vaguely discussed the threats with which missile defense is to cope, while ignoring the cost, technological readiness, or effect on arms control. James Lindsay and Michael O’Hanlon stated that the proposed US missile defense program will divert resources from other defense needs and would increase the nuclear and missile threats facing the US.
“Missile Defense Commentary” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

2. US Missile Defense Consultations

Envoys from the US traveled to many countries to meet with officials to discuss the proposed US missile defense program and other aspects of US President George Bush’s proposed strategic framework, including nuclear arms cuts and efforts in nonproliferation and counter-proliferation. Protesters against the US missile defense proposal met US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage when he traveled to the ROK to consult with officials there. Armitage also met with Japanese officials, who were more positive about working with the US on Theater Missile Defense (TMD) than with National Missile Defense (NMD). Armitage then met in India with Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh and National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra. US Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz will meet with senior officials in France, Germany, Poland, and Russia, while a separate delegation visited the Netherlands.
“US Missile Defense Consultations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)
“US Consultations in Asia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)
“US Consultations in Europe” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)
“World Opinion on Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)

3. US Consultations with Russia, Europe

Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko reported that Russia has formed a special panel to formulate Russia’s response to US plans for a limited missile defense system. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice explained in media interviews the US intention to consult with Russia on the US missile defense program. Analysts argued that it would be a much better bargain for US security if the US diverted a small percentage of the funding for missile defense towards controlling Russia’s “loose nukes.”
“US Consultations with Russia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)
“Russian Nonproliferation Programs” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)
“US-Russian Talks over NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)

Andrew J. Pierre argues in the current edition of Arms Control Today European leaders have tactically chosen to avoid a fight with the US over missile defense and wait to see a detailed plan before committing themselves, but generally remain unconvinced.
“Commentary on European Consultations” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

4. US Consultations in Asia

The Center for Defense Information states that according to a report in the South China Morning Post, a survey of 31 Asian defense experts in South, Southeast and East Asia found overwhelming displeasure with US missile defense programs.
“US Consultations in Asia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

James Kelly, the US assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific affairs, met with PRC arms control and foreign policy officials. The PRC government on May 15 publicly called the US proposal on missile defense a fruitless step that would endanger global security.
“US-PRC Missile Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 17, US)
“US-PRC Missile Defense Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, US)
“PRC View on NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 15, PRC)
“US-PRC Missile Defense Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 14, US)

5. Commentary on US Consultations

The Asahi Shimbun reports that if TMD deployment becomes subsumed within the US global defense strategy, TMD deployment by Japan would create diplomatic problems and raise the issue of Japan’s right to exercise collective self-defense.
“Issues in Asia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

C. Raja Mohan writes that India is signaling its desire for a significant shift in India-US bilateral relations with its support for the US missile defense proposal. K.K. Katyal states that this policy decision was like many others in that the opposition party was not consulted, but also states that the opposition’s position on missile defense could balance the government’s support enough to draw attention to the less desirable implications of missile defense.
“Commentary on Armitage Visit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf said missile defenses would stimulate a new arms race. He also said, “It would undermine international efforts aimed at arms control and disarmament.”
“US Missile Defense Proposal” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #20)

Patrick E. Tyler writes that during negotiations over what became the 1972 ABM Treaty, both Russia and the US were convinced that the best defense against global nuclear war was mutual exposure to each other’s offense, but they agreed that each side could deploy a single antimissile site to eliminate the threat posed by a rising PRC.
“Issues in Asia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

Arms Control

1. US Arms Control Policy

The US Senate confirmed John R. Bolton as Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, the chief US arms-control official.
“US Arms Control Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #19)

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