NAPSNET Week in Review 18 June, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 18 June, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, June 18, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-18-june-2001/

Korea


1. Agreed Framework

The Korean Central News Agency released a commentary, saying that the US should bear inescapable responsibility for the delay of DPRK’s two light-water reactors’ construction. If the US side does not compensate the DPRK for its loss, the commentary warned, DPRK will have to restore its construction of graphite reactor to defend its right of survival.
“DPRK Light-Water Reactors” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)

ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung Soo said his talks with White House and US State Department officials last week convinced him that the administration “will abide by” the agreement the Clinton administration worked out with the DPRK in 1994 to provide civilian nuclear reactors to the DPRK.
“ROK on Agreed Framework” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 11, US)


2. DPRK Missile Moratorium

Selig Harrison reported after concluding talks with four senior DPRK officials that the DPRK will not maintain its two-year moratorium on missile tests unless the US signals a willingness to discuss normalizing relations.
“DPRK Missile Moratorium” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)


3. US-DPRK Missile Talks

US Ambassador to the ROK, Thomas Hubbard, told The Korea Times that the US is seeking to restrict DPRK production and deployment of missiles exceeding certain ranges, as well as a complete ban on its exports of missiles.
“DPRK Missile Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 11, US)

US President George Bush announced on the eve of a visit here by ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo that the US would resume negotiations with the DPRK regarding its production and exporting of missiles and the deployment of troops along the border. Bush said that he had directed his national security team to “undertake serious discussions with North Korea on a broad agenda.” Bush said in a written declaration that if DPRK responds actively and takes proper activities, the US will enlarge its aid to DPRK and loosen sanction and adopt other political measures.
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)
“DPRK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 12, US)
“DPRK-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, RF)

Diplomats from the US and DPRK met in New York on June 13 for low-level talks that the US State Department called a useful beginning to a dialogue between the two countries. The ROK government reacted favorably to promptness and willingness of the DPRK to meet the US. However, an ROK official also quickly added that the ROK hoped the talks between the US and the DPRK would move “outside the United Nations channel.”
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 14, US)
“ROK Response to US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)


4. ROK-US Relations: NMD

Quoting leaked official documents from a senior US National Security Council official, the Hankook Ilbo reported that the US has put pressure on the ROK to explicitly support its controversial missile defense ahead of a recent visit by ROK President Kim Dae-jung to Washington.
“ROK Pressured to Support US NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, US)


5. Inter-Korean Relations

ROK Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Han Sun-soo told the Mainichi Shimbun on June 10 in Washington that he is optimistic about the prospect for DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s visit to the ROK.
“Kim Jong-il’s Visit to ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, Japan)

The DPRK and the ROK have agreed to open the first regular ground route between the two countries as a result of negotiations between top executives of the Hyundai Group and DPRK officials on reducing the cost of tours to the DPRK. Tourists would be permitted next year to travel by car or bus over a little more than eight miles of roads from ROK’s unification observatory to the base of Mount Kumkang.
“Inter-Korean Commerce Routes” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 11, US)


6. DPRK Drought Conditions

The DPRK experienced its worst spring drought in more than eighty years and needs more international aid to feed its people. Researchers in the ROK estimated the DPRK’s potato and corn 2001 harvest would be halved unless there are rains by the end of June, while barley and wheat crops could drop 80 percent.
“DPRK Drought and Food Crisis” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 14, US)


China


1. US-PRC Military Contacts

PRC naval officers joined US naval officers aboard the US Navy warship USS Inchon to observe military exercises in the South China Sea. They did not discuss recent tensions.
“US-PRC Military Contacts” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 14, US)
The Russian daily Izvestia reported that the US Navy reconnaissance EP-3 plane in Hainan will be delivered back to the US in four pieces. The whole operation is to take a month. The US$80 million plane cannot be restored. “PRC to Return US Reconnaissance Plane in Four Pieces” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, RF)


2. PRC Arms Sales to Cuba

The Washington Times reported that according to US intelligence officials, the PRC is shipping arms and explosives to Cuba. At least three arms shipments were traced from the PRC to Cuba over the past several months. The PRC government denied these claims. Zhang Yuanyuan, a PRC Embassy spokesman, said, “China and Cuba have diplomatic relations, and the two countries’ militaries have relations. For some years, China has supplied the Cuban military with logistics items — never arms.”
“PRC Arms Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 12, US)
“PRC Arms Sales to Cuba” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 14, US)


3. Space Militarization Proposal

At the 44th session of the UN Peaceful Use of Outer Space Committee on June 6, PRC delegation leader Huang Huikang called for negotiation to conclude international agreement on preventing arms race in outer space (PAROS) as part of the PRC’s opposition to the US missile defense plan.
“PRC Calls for PAROS Agreement” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)
“PRC on Outer Space Militarization Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, RF)


4. Sino-US Relations

The PRC foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the PRC and the US are holding talks about a possible visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State Colin Powell.
“Sino-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 12, US)

The New York Times published an editorial that said that although the US George W. Bush administration has yet to articulate a fully formed PRC policy, there are unsettling indications that it may be inclined to see the PRC primarily as an emerging military threat.
“Editorial on Sino-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 11, US)


5. ROK Premier to Visit PRC

The PRC announced that ROK Prime Minister Lee Han-Dong will visit the PRC from June 19 to 22 at the invitation of PRC Premier Zhu Rongji. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi did not give an agenda for Lee’s visit, but noted improving ties between the DPRK and the ROK since an historic meeting between the leaders last year.
“ROK Premier to Visit PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 12, US)


6. Macedonia Recognizes PRC

Taiwan denied that Macedonia had already decided to break off diplomatic ties with it and recognize the PRC instead as the sole representative of China. Taiwanese foreign ministry spokeswoman Chang Siao-yueh acknowledged that Taiwan had launched a last-ditch campaign as Macedonia mulls restoring its diplomatic links with the PRC.
“Recognition by Macedonia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, US)
“Macedonia Recognizes PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 12, US)


Japan


1. Japanese-US Foreign Ministerial Talk

The US State Department said in a statement that Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka will meet Secretary of State Colin L. Powell in Washington next week to discuss security and other issues and to prepare for a summit between US President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Washington on June 30. Sources said Tanaka’s visit was once threatened with cancellation over her alleged controversial remarks on the US missile defense plan but the itinerary was renegotiated at Tanaka’s strong urging.
“Japan-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, US)
“Japanese-US Foreign Ministerial Talk” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, Japan)


2. US Forces in Japan

The Japanese government presented to prefectural and municipal governments eight options for constructing a facility in Nago to replace the US Futenma Air Station in Okinawa Prefecture. The anticipated construction periods ranged from six years to over 18-1/2 years, and the costs were estimated at between 140 billion yen and 1 trillion yen. A demand by local governments that a time limit be set on the US military forces’ use of the new airport has not been resolved. Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka indicated she will “make specific proposals” on the US training activities in Okinawa during upcoming talks with Secretary of State Colin Powell.
“US Forces in Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, Japan)


Russia


1. Air Force Reform

A representative of RF Air Force Chief Headquarters told media men that by the end of 2004 RF Air Force personnel was to be reduced by more than 36 thousand. Those structures not directly relevant to combat readiness are to be reduced in order to save funds to be spent on equipment upgrading and training.
“RF Air Force Reform” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, RF)


2. Shanghai Five Group

According to Russian military experts, Russia’s intentions about the newly born Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) (or “Shanghai Five”) include not only dealing with terrorism and separatism but also deterring US dominance and securing a new weapons market.
“Russia’s Policy Toward SCO” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, Japan)


South Asia


1. India-Russia Defense Issues

External Affairs Jaswant Singh, in Russia for the first meeting of an India-Russia joint commission on defense cooperation, sought to allay Russia fears regarding India’s position on the US missile defense program. He said, “We have not supported the US proposal for building the NMD system.” India will acquire ballistic missile defenses from Russia, including the S-300MV and S-300 PMU2 systems as part of a $10 billion package.
“India-Russia Defense Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)


2. India-Pakistan Relations

Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani expressed optimism regarding the potential outcomes of the proposed summit talks between Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee and Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf. The News reports that India and Pakistan have been in talks to prepare concrete issues for the proposed summit. Indian and Pakistani press reported that Pakistani rangers, firing across the Line of Control at Indian border outposts, killed one soldier and injured another person.
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)
“India-Pakistan Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)

All-Parties Hurriyat Conference chairman Abdul Gani Bhat stated that the upcoming Vajpayee-Musharraf summit should look towards a permanent solution to Kashmir rather than devising a temporary one. An APHC statement said that the group would stop holding strikes and rallies in order to help prevent any derailment of the proposed India-Pakistan summit. It also demanded its participation in the summit.
“All-Parties Hurriyat Conference Statements” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)

The News reports that Pakistan is set to reduce the import duty on 200 products of Indian origin under the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA).
“Pakistan-India Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)

The Pakistani media has been supportive of Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf’s attempts to rein in “irresponsible statements” by hardline Islamic groups. Musharraf reassured the APHC that a final decision on the Kashmir issue would not be made without their input.
“Islamic Groups” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)


3. India-PRC Border Dispute

A meeting of the India-PRC Expert Group on the bilateral border issue is due to meet this month to compare each other’s maps of the Line of Actual Control.
“India-PRC Border Dispute” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)

According to a recent report written by Nan Li, the PRC feels a much greater degree of vulnerability with India than with any of its other neighbors because of border disputes and tensions and India’s recent nuclear tests. The study further argues that the PRC may redeploy intermediate range ballistic missiles and increase military aid to Pakistan to take pressure from India off its borders.
“PRC Security” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)


4. Norwegian Role in Peace Process

The Times of India reports that Norwegian peace envoy to Sri Lanka Erik Solheim has possibly been sidelined as he was excluded from talks on the LTTE between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Norwegian Foreign Minister Thorbjoern Jagland.
“Norwegian Role in Peace Process” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #24)


Nuclear Weapons


1. US Nuclear Posture

A report by the Federation of American Scientists, the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Union of Concerned Scientists argues that the current US force structure and doctrine is obsolete, and that the current greatest nuclear danger is from a Russian accidental missile launch due to fixable problems with Russia’s early warning and command-and-control systems.
“US Nuclear Posture” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)
“US Nuclear Weapons” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)


2. PRC Nuclear Modernization

Li Bin writes that the original purpose behind the PRC’s nuclear development was to counter the possibility of nuclear blackmail preventing it from achieving its policy goals. Li argues that the PRC response be visible to the US, not be overly financially burdensome, should not increase the threat perceptions of the PRC by other countries, should be multi-faceted and seek to develop or cope with advanced technologies.
“PRC Nuclear Modernization” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)


Missile Defense


1. Missile Proliferation Report

The current issue of Arms Control Today reports that only five states besides the de jure nuclear-weapon states possess the capability to indigenously produce ballistic missiles with ranges over 1,000 km and that Russia, the PRC and the DPRK are the largest suppliers of ballistic missile-related goods, technology, and expertise.
“Missile Proliferation Report” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)


2. US Missile Defense Programs

The US Air Force tested cruise missile defense systems under development by the US Army and Marine Corp. Major Steve Boes said that no live ordnance was fired, but radar lock-ons, indicating kills, were obtained on all twelve targets.
“US Missile Defense Programs” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)

The US Ballistic Missile Defense Office released news that there will be the fourth test of missile interception during mid- to late-July. This is also the first test in the new Bush Administration.
“US NMD Testing” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)

The US Defense Department has been pressing private contractors for options to speed up deployment of missile defenses in an effort to put into place a rudimentary system before the end of President George Bush’s current term in 2004.
“US Missile Defense Programs” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)


3. US Consultations: Europe, Russia

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is attending a NATO meeting and attempting to convince his counterparts in NATO to be more supportive of US missile defense efforts. Many European allies of the US fail to see a real threat and others fear that abandoning the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty between the US and Russia would be detrimental to overall European security.
“US Consultations: NATO” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)

French President Chirac reiterated his opposition to US NMD program. He said the ABM treaty has basically restrained arms race in a big-scale and maintained the world strategic balance.
“French View of US NMD Deployment” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)

After discussing it with US Secretary of State Colin Powell last week in Hungary, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said that Russia was prepared to be constructive in talks on missile defense but was unwilling to compromise on the need to preserve the 1972 ABM Treaty. Ivanov later said that the long-distance missile threats that US takes to justify its missile shield system are completely assumed and that they have covered today’s real threats.
“US Consultations: Russia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)
“Russian View of US NMD System” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, PRC)


4. Responses to Missile Defense Diplomacy: PRC, Japan

PRC President Jiang Zemin and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, meeting on the side of the Shanghai-5 group of Central Asian states, showed a united front against US plans to build a national missile defense (NMD) system. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said, “President Putin reiterated Russia’s principled position on that matter and China stated that it will continue to support Russia in its efforts to maintain the global equilibrium.”
“PRC-Russian Views of US NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 14, US)
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi stated that the proposed US missile defense system is worth researching, contradicting negative statements by his Foreign Minister, Makiko Tanaka. Tanaka reportedly told Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini that the US missile defense plans appear to be aimed at China, and said that Japan and Europe should join in opposition to the US proposal. “Japanese Statements” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi did not rule out opposing US plans for a missile defense shield, saying on Wednesday that Japan needs to “carefully consider” its position.
“Japan on US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 13, US)

The RAND Corporation, a US based think tank, released a report on June 8 that Japan’s domestic disagreements on NMD could undermine the Japan-US alliance.
“US View of Japan’s Stance on NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 15, Japan)


Arms Control


1. ABM Treaty

Douglas J. Feith, nominated by President George Bush to be US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, stated during his Senate confirmation hearing that the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty lapsed when the Soviet Union ceased to exist in 1991. Spurgeon M. Keeny writes that Bush will now face a Senate dominated by Democrats who share many of the same concerns about missile defense and abrogation of the 1972 ABM Treaty as Russia, the PRC, and US allies.
“US Perspective on ABM Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #23)

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