NAPSNet 9 June 2011

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet 9 June 2011", NAPSNet Weekly Report, June 09, 2011,

NAPSNet 9 June 2011

ENERGY SECURITY: All of Japan’s reactors may be idle by spring, Nikkei (8 June 2011) [Subscription required]

The Nikkei morning edition notes that Japanese reactors shut down for routine maintenance, as is mandated on 13-month intervals, require approval of local authorities for restarts. Following the Fukushima incident, utilities both in and outside the earthquake-affected areas are likely to have trouble securing such approval, raising the spectre of power shortfalls by summer 2012 and/or $30 billion in additional fossil fuel costs for generation.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (2011) [497 KB, PDF]

In this paper, Smith et al. seek to understand climate adaptation decisions with a long lifetime (sum of lead time and consequence time), and contrast them with other, simpler, adaptation decisions. They present an initial classification of decision types that is aimed at helping decision-makers to arrive at better adaptation solutions. Smith et al. synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics.       

DPRK: KPA to take thousand-fold revenge on Lee Myung Bak Group, KCNA (3 June 2011)

KCNA published a statement by the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army threatening “practical and overall retaliatory military actions” against the ROK. The statement noted that the DPRK has suspended dialogue with the ROK and intends to “settle accounts… only by force of arms”. KPA General Staff Statements generally indicate a move away from engagement. They often threaten military action and have occasionally preceded a provocative gesture (such as a missile launch) by the DPRK.

DETERRENCE: North Korea and the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: The credibility gap, CSIS (3 September 2010)

At a CSIS program “North Korea and the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: Extended Deterrence in East Asia” Patrick Morgan argued that nuclear extended deterrence is not credible to North Korea due to overwhelming conventional superiority. According to the rapporteur, “if you continually threaten someone with an unloaded gun they are not going to believe your threats, even if you have other credible options to annihilate them.”

AUSTRAL SECURITY:  Four soldier deaths can’t halt Afghan resolve, Australian (8 June 2011)

Despite the death of the fourth Australian soldier in Afghanistan in just over a fortnight and reports that the US is planning to withdraw 30,000 troops from Afghanistan by late next year, the Australian government has reaffirmed its commitment to staying in Afghanistan.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: South China Sea conflict, China surrounded by enemies on all sides, Chosun (7 June 2011) [Korean language]

In light of the firm attitude of Vietnam and Singapore against China and a lack of results from the Shangri-la conference, there seems to be no resolution to the conflict between these three countries in sight. At Malaysia’s suggestion, China has agreed to share the economic activities with Malaysia in South China Sea area.