NAPSNet 9 June 2011

• ENERGY SECURITY: All of Japan’s reactors may be idle by spring

• CLIMATE CHANGE: Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world

• DPRK: KPA to take thousand-fold revenge on Lee Myung Bak Group

• DETERRENCE: North Korea and the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: The credibility gap

• AUSTRAL SECURITY: Four soldier deaths can’t halt Afghan resolve 

• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: South China Sea conflict, China surrounded by enemies on all sides

ENERGY SECURITY: All of Japan’s reactors may be idle by spring, Nikkei (8 June 2011) [Subscription required]

The Nikkei morning edition notes that Japanese reactors shut down for routine maintenance, as is mandated on 13-month intervals, require approval of local authorities for restarts. Following the Fukushima incident, utilities both in and outside the earthquake-affected areas are likely to have trouble securing such approval, raising the spectre of power shortfalls by summer 2012 and/or $30 billion in additional fossil fuel costs for generation.

• Germany to phase out nuclear power. Could the US do the same?  Christian Science Monitor (7 June 2011)

• Wind power could blow jobs Tohoku’s way, Nikkei (7 June 2011)

• The path from Fukushima: short and medium-term impacts of the reactor damage caused by the Japan earthquake and tsunami on Japan’s electricity systems, Nautilus Institute (11 April 2011) [PDF, 1.73MB]

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (2011) [497 KB, PDF]

In this paper, Smith et al. seek to understand climate adaptation decisions with a long lifetime (sum of lead time and consequence time), and contrast them with other, simpler, adaptation decisions. They present an initial classification of decision types that is aimed at helping decision-makers to arrive at better adaptation solutions. Smith et al. synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics.       

• Four reasons for concern about adaptation to climate change, Environment and Planning A (2009) [82.8 KB, PDF]

• Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change, Global Environmental Change (2009) [Subscription required]

DPRK: KPA to take thousand-fold revenge on Lee Myung Bak Group, KCNA (3 June 2011)

KCNA published a statement by the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army threatening “practical and overall retaliatory military actions” against the ROK. The statement noted that the DPRK has suspended dialogue with the ROK and intends to “settle accounts… only by force of arms”. KPA General Staff Statements generally indicate a move away from engagement. They often threaten military action and have occasionally preceded a provocative gesture (such as a missile launch) by the DPRK.

• Timeline of KPA General Staff Statements, Nautilus Institute (6 June 2011)
• South Korea’s defense minister vows to boost response to any future attacks by North Korea, Washington Post (4 June 2011)
• North Korean nuclear nationalism and the threat of nuclear war in Korea, NAPSNet Special Report (21 April 2011)

DETERRENCE: North Korea and the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: The credibility gap, CSIS (3 September 2010)

At a CSIS program “North Korea and the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: Extended Deterrence in East Asia” Patrick Morgan argued that nuclear extended deterrence is not credible to North Korea due to overwhelming conventional superiority. According to the rapporteur, “if you continually threaten someone with an unloaded gun they are not going to believe your threats, even if you have other credible options to annihilate them.”

• Considerations bearing on a possible retraction of the American Nuclear Umbrella over the ROK, National Committee on North Korea (2010) [PDF, 92KB]
• U.S. arms control chief backs nuke redeployment, says placing tactical atomic arms in South would be symbolic gesture, Joongang Daily (1 March 2011)
• No time for nukes, China isn’t likely to tolerate U.S. nuclear weapons in its neighborhood, and would only move toward closer military ties with North Korea, Joongang Daily (10 May 2011) 

AUSTRAL SECURITY:  Four soldier deaths can’t halt Afghan resolve, Australian (8 June 2011)

Despite the death of the fourth Australian soldier in Afghanistan in just over a fortnight and reports that the US is planning to withdraw 30,000 troops from Afghanistan by late next year, the Australian government has reaffirmed its commitment to staying in Afghanistan.

• US Afghan drawdown won’t affect Australian mission: minister, Australia Network News (9 June 210)

• Towards transition: prospects for progress in Afghanistan during 2011, ASPI (1 June 2011)

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: South China Sea conflict, China surrounded by enemies on all sides, Chosun (7 June 2011) [Korean language]

In light of the firm attitude of Vietnam and Singapore against China and a lack of results from the Shangri-la conference, there seems to be no resolution to the conflict between these three countries in sight. At Malaysia’s suggestion, China has agreed to share the economic activities with Malaysia in South China Sea area.

• China supports Malaysia’s proposal to share economic activities in South China Sea, Bernama (6 June 2011)

• Vietnam, Philippines concerned about China, NHK (6 June 2011)

Editor

• Arabella Imhoff

Contributors

• Deterrence: Peter Hayes
• Governance and Civil Society: Yi Kiho
• Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
• DPRK: Scott Bruce
• Energy Security: David von Hippel
• Austral Security: Arabella Imhoff