NAPSNet Daily Report 06 November, 2000

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet Daily Report 06 November, 2000", NAPSNet Daily Report, November 06, 2000, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-daily-report/napsnet-daily-report-06-november-2000/

 
CONTENTS

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Missile Talks
2. Clinton’s DPRK Visit
3. DPRK-EU Relations
4. DPRK Internal Situation
5. ROK-Japan Talks
6. US-PRC Talks on Taiwan
7. PRC Missile Development
8. PRC-Russian Arms Trade
II. Announcements 1. Missile Defense Debate

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Missile Talks The US Department of State, Office of International Information Programs released a press statement by Robert J. Einhorn, Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation, (Kuala Lumpur, 11/3/00) which said: “Delegations of the United States and North Korea concluded three days of missile talks today. The talks followed the discussions on missile issues held between Secretary of State Albright and DPRK leader Chairman Kim Jong-Il during the Secretary’s visit to Pyongyang October 23-24. The discussions this week in Kuala Lumpur sought to further clarify areas explored in Pyongyang. The talks were detailed, constructive, and very substantive. They covered the full range of missile issues under consideration by the two countries, including North Korea’s missile-related exports and its indigenous missile programs. The delegations also explored in depth the idea of exchanging launches of DPRK satellites for serious missile restraint by the DPRK. The delegations further clarified their respective positions on the full range of missile issues and continued to expand areas of common ground, although significant issues remain to be explored and resolved. The U.S. Delegation will now report to authorities in Washington who will consider next steps.”

USA Today (Barbara Slavin, “MISSILE PROGRAM HOLDS KEY TO N. KOREA’S FOREIGN RELATIONS,” 11/6/00) reported that US State Department officials said Sunday that experts from the US and the DPRK clarified technical issues last week in Malaysia and that follow-up meetings are likely. According to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, the DPRK has amassed the largest ballistic missile force among developing nations–700 missiles and 36 launchers–and has also become the biggest supplier to such countries as Libya, Syria, and Iran. Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and an adviser to Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, said that the idea of exchanging satellite launches for DPRK’s freeze of its missile program would inevitably transfer technology, citing Russian assistance to India’s satellite program and the PRC’s launch of US satellites. A report sponsored by the Institute for National Security Studies and the US Army War College advocates providing imagery, communications and other services from already orbiting satellites rather than launching DPRK ones. However, others said that it is possible to limit technology transfer by placing DPRK satellites on scheduled launches by the European Space Agency, for example. Joseph Bermudez, an independent expert, said, “It depends on how careful those launching the satellite are.” In fact, he said, the party that makes the satellite “provides a great deal more information. The North Koreans would have to tell the weight of the satellite, the aerodynamics of it, the altitude it needs to be released at and its susceptibility to radio interference and resistance to shock.” He said that the main concern is that the DPRK would sign an agreement, then “nickel and dime us to get more.” Some analysts argued that while the DPRK has become the largest recipient of US aid in Asia over the past six years, the country has made no significant reforms. Gordon Flake of the Mansfield Center for Pacific Affairs stated, “I’m afraid the North Koreans have learned all the wrong lessons.” There is also concern about whether a lame-duck administration should be engaged in such sensitive negotiations. Winston Lord, a former assistant secretary of State, said it would be “irresponsible and possibly dangerous” for Clinton to go to the DPRK. White House officials said that Clinton would consult the president-elect before signing any new agreement. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 6, 2000.]

2. Clinton’s DPRK Visit

The Associated Press (“CLINTON PUTS OFF MAKING STATE VISIT TO NORTH KOREA,” New York, 11/5/00) and the Washington Post (Steven Mufson and Ellen Nakashima, “CLINTON STOP IN N. KOREA UNLIKELY, OFFICIAL SAYS,” 11/4/00) reported that a US White House official said on October 4 that US President Clinton will not go to the DPRK after his trip to Vietnam but might make a visit before he leaves office in January. Daniel Cruise, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said, “The president has not made a decision yet on whether he will visit Pyongyang. A decision has been made that it’s not going to happen at the end of the [Asian] trip, but the final decision on whether he’ll go there before the end of his term has not been made. More discussion needs to happen in Washington. We want a fuller readout on the talks in Kuala Lumpur.” [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 6, 2000.]

3. DPRK-EU Relations

Agence France Presse (“NORTH KOREA MAKES NEW APPROACH TO WARY EUROPE OVER TIES,” Seoul, 11/5/00) reported that the DPRK on October 5 made a new appeal for closer ties with the European Union (EU), even though EU countries that had announced they would seek diplomatic relations are now warning that it could be a long process. A commentary in the DPRK’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper said that opening relations with EU nations would help guarantee “peace and security in Northeast Asia and the rest of the world.” The newspaper said that the absence of relations with EU nations was “abnormal.” The report continued, “During the Cold War not a few countries took a cautious and hostile attitude toward the DPRK as they lacked correct understanding of it.” The newspaper added that the ruling party and government had always wanted “good-neighborly and friendly relations with those capitalist countries that respect its sovereignty and are friendly to it.” Former European Commission president Jacques Santer, who led the EU delegation to Pyongyang, urged greater European coordination in developing relations with the DPRK. Speaking in Beijing on November 4, Santer said EU deputies had urged DPRK officials to open a human rights dialogue with Europe and also raised missile concerns and Europe’s contribution to the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization. Santer said that the delegation held “open-minded and constructive talks” with DPRK officials including nominal head-of-state Kim Yong-Nam, Foreign Minister Paek Nam-Sun and Ryo Chun-Sok, vice defense minister. However, Santer said, the DPRK had been non-committal about rights. Hans-Ulrich Klose and Antje Vollmer, members of the German parliament who also returned from the DPRK on November 4, urged the German government not to rush plans to establish diplomatic relations. Klose said, “We must be clear on the German side what exactly our interests are in establishing diplomatic relations with North Korea.”

4. DPRK Internal Situation

The New York Times (Jane Perlez, “THE STRANGE WORLD OF NORTH KOREA,” Washington, 11/05/00) reported that while reporters who accompanied US Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright on her recent trip to the DPRK were restricted in their movements, they did see several paradoxes in the country. The article noted that while the DPRK officials promoted the motto “Children are king,” Western aid workers were recently upset to see children laboring on a road-building project. It also said that, despite the recent moves toward diplomatic opening, DPRK officials forbade US officials who drove over the demilitarized zone from the ROK from bringing their ROK drivers with them, and ordered that all signs in English and ROK emblems affixed to the cars had to be covered. The article said that all televisions and radios in the DPRK, which broadcast only government material, must be registered. It quoted Ken Quinones, former DPRK desk officer at the US State Department and now head of Northeast Asia projects for Mercy Corps, as saying that the US officials who visited the DPRK five years ago had to negotiate for the right to go for a quarter-mile walk to a tree outside the gate of their hotel. Quinones stated, “Everything was gradual and incremental, with profuse explanations every step of the way.” The article also quoted Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, as saying that Nautilus has been gradually able to gain the trust of the DPRK villagers at its windpower project, by delivering on its promises. Hayes said that one of the DPRK members of the project team told him, “My mother thinks that all Americans are wolves, and we are the prey.” However, another DPRK citizen expressed gratitude that the project was bringing electricity to his family, adding, “Thank you, please come back and build more.”

5. ROK-Japan Talks

The Associated Press (“S. KOREAN OFFICIAL TO VISIT JAPAN,” Seoul, 11/6/00) reported that ROK Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn arrived in Japan on Monday for a two-day visit expected to focus on the DPRK. Lee will hold talks with his Japanese counterpart, Yohei Kono, and pay a courtesy call to Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.

6. US-PRC Talks on Taiwan

The Associated Press (“U.S., CHINA HOLD TALKS ON TAIWAN,” Beijing, 11/4/00) reported that senior US and PRC generals started talks in Beijing on November 3 to discuss the issue of Taiwan. US General Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with his PRC counterpart, General Fu Quanyou. The PRC’s official New China News Agency reported that Quanyou told Shelton that sales of advanced US weaponry to Taiwan sent “a wrong signal.” PRC defense minister General Chi Haotian reiterated the concern, telling Shelton that the transfers increased the chances of conflict. It was unclear how Shelton responded, but in a speech to PRC cadets, Shelton called on the PRC to forgo armed action against Taiwan and said that the US wanted constructive military ties. Shelton said in a speech at PRC’s National Defense University, “The ultimate status of Taiwan is a matter for the Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to resolve in a peaceful–I repeat, peaceful–manner.” [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 6, 2000.]

7. PRC Missile Development

Agence France Presse (“NEW CHINESE MISSILE COULD FORM MENACE TO TAIWAN, EXPERT SAYS,” Zhuhai, 11/6/00) reported that a US military expert said on Monday that a new missile which appeared at the Zhuhai airshow in southern PRC, attached to a model of the Chinese-made JH-7 fighter-bomber, also known as the “Flying Leopard,” could pose a grave threat to the defense of Taiwan if deployed. The missile has not been given an official Chinese name. Richard Fisher, an expert on military affairs at the Jamestown Foundation, said, “it’s a brand-new supersonic missile, anti-ship or anti-radar, which could have a considerable range. It is only a model, but this is the first confirmation that this kind of program is alive and making progress. I would be worried if I was in Taiwan.” He said that since the missile is supersonic, it can not be destroyed in flight and appears primarily aimed at destroying radars, which form Taiwan’s first line of defense. Fischer noted that the missile would be easily able to traverse the Taiwan Straits. He added that, “For people in charge of deterrence in the Taiwan Straits, this is a big problem.” Fischer also said that the fact that the missile appeared at an international air show indicates that the PRC also plans to export this technology to other countries.

8. PRC-Russian Arms Trade

The London Times (Simon Saradzhyan, “WEAPONS DEAL THREATENS TAIWAN,” Moscow, 11/4/00) reported that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov is in Beijing to sign an arms deal that critics said will give the PRC a strategic edge over the Taiwanese and raise new concerns in the US. The expected deal is for airborne early warning and control aircraft and advanced Russian destroyers with high-speed ship-to-ship missiles. Kasyanov told Russia’s ITAR-TASS news agency upon his arrival in Beijing on November 3 that the deal is an “important element” of defense cooperation with the PRC. Kasyanov met his PRC counterpart, Zhu Rongji, and PRC President Jiang Zemin to discuss what he described as a “strategic partnership” between the two countries. A Russian naval industry source said that Kasyanov’s team is also negotiating the sale of two Sovremenny-class destroyers to the PRC. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for November 6, 2000.]

II. Announcements

1. Missile Defense Debate

The Commonwealth Club of California/Silicon Valley will host a debate on national missile defense at 6:30 pm on Monday, November 20th, with a reception beginning at 5:45 pm, at Cubberley Community Center, Main Theater, 4000 Middlefield Road, Palo Alto. The panel will be the culmination of an experts’ conference on missile defense which the Club and Stanford University will host earlier in the day, and which former US Secretary of Defense Bill Perry will co- chair. The conference will focus on two main questions: how would missile defense affect US relationships in Asia, and how would it affect the availability of space to companies such as telecommunications firms. The conference will produce a set of recommendations for the new president on how he should proceed in his decision on missile defense. The public session will be led by former CIA Director James Woolsey and Stanford physicist Sidney Drell, and moderated by Commonwealth Club CEO Dr. Gloria Duffy. Attendees will be welcome to express their views or ask questions, which will also be incorporated into the final report of the conference. A web portal is also being established for ongoing national debate and discussion on missile defense, in conjunction with the conference, and further information about that will be provided. For reservations, call the Commonwealth Club at 415-597-6706, or 800-847- 7730, or email to reservations@commonwealthclub.org

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Gee Gee Wong: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun: khs688@hotmail.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao: yule111@sina.com
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia

Leanne Payton: lbpat1@smtp.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia

 


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