NAPSNet Daily Report 02 February, 2004

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet Daily Report 02 February, 2004", NAPSNet Daily Report, February 02, 2004, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-daily-report/napsnet-daily-report-02-february-2004/

 
CONTENTS

I. United States

1. US Intelligence Credibility
2. Pakistan Nuclear Secrets Leak
3. US on DPRK Nuclear Talks
4. US Missile Defense Development
5. US on DPRK Reactor Program
6. Japan Iraq Troops
7. DPRK on Japan Economic Sanctions Bill
8. Japan-US Relations
9. PRC Chemical Weapons Victims Lawsuit
10. PRC-Africa Relations
11. DPRK-Japan Abduction Issue
12. Op-Ed: Philip Yun on DPRK Diplomacy
II. People’s Republic of China 1. ROK’s Top Advisers Replaced
2. US on Taiwan Issue
3. Japan-DPRK Relations
4. Battle Against Bird Flu
5. US-Russian Ties
6. DPRK-ROK Relations
7. PRC on Non-Proliferation

I. United States

1. US Intelligence Credibility

Agence France-Presse (“US CREDIBILITY ON NORTH KOREA ON LINE AFTER IRAQ INTELLIGENCE FIASCO,” Washington, 02/01/04) reported that if the US did get it “all wrong” on Iraq’s non-existent arsenal, why should the world trust its intelligence on the DPRK’s nuclear drive? That’s a question US diplomats may already be facing from Asian powers like the PRC and the ROK, after Iraq weapons hunter David Kay delivered a damning post-mortem on intelligence used to justify the Iraq war. “We were almost all wrong” Kay told a Senate committee last week, setting off a political timebomb for the Bush administration. His admission also raised questions about the quality of intelligence used to back up another US claim — that the DPRK had a covert program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, which set off the crisis in 2002. A State Department official denied the Iraq debacle had “anything to do” with the DPRK, but some US proliferation experts are not so sure. “The fact that we got it so wrong on Iraq is having an impact on North Korea,” said John Wolfstahl, of the non proliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The PRC, trying to broker new six-way crisis talks on the crisis, recently told Japan it did not believe the DPRK had a enriched uranium program. And the ROK has privately expressed similar doubts, sources in Washington said. But US officials are defending their accusations. “The US has not changed its view that North Korea has a highly enriched uranium program,” said the State Department official on condition of anonymity. “I was not sceptical of the intelligence,” said former State Department official Jack Pritchard, at a Brookings Institution breifing two weeks ago. “I believe it was accurate.” Doubts over the quality of US intelligence were fanned by a controversy exposed by Pritchard’s trip, which also included a US academic and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker. In testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Hecker quoted DPRK Vice Minister Kim Gye Gwan as saying “‘We have no program, we have no equipment, and we have no technical expertise for enriching uranium.'” DPRK officials said their translation of the Kelly meeting did not support the claim that they had owned up. But Kelly said last week he remained “convinced by that conversation that a uranium enrichment program was admitted.”

The New York Times (David E. Sanger, “BUSH TO ESTABLISH PANEL TO EXAMINE US INTELLIGENCE,” 02/02/04) reported that US President Bush will establish a bipartisan commission in the next few days to examine US intelligence operations, including a study of possible misjudgments about Iraq’s unconventional weapons, senior administration officials said Sunday. They said the panel would also investigate failures to penetrate secretive governments and stateless groups that could attempt new attacks on the US. The president’s decision came after a week of rising pressure on the White House from both Democrats and many ranking Republicans to deal with what the head of the Senate Intelligence Committee has called “egregious” errors that overstated Iraq’s stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, and made the country appear far closer to developing nuclear weapons than it actually was. The officials described the commission Bush will create as a broader examination of American intelligence shortcomings – from Iran to the DPRK to Libya – of which the Iraqi experience was only a part. The pressure to establish such a panel became irresistible after David A. Kay, the former chief weapons inspector, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that “it turns out we were all wrong, probably,” about the perceived Iraqi threat, which was the administration’s basic justification for the war. The commission will not report back until after the November elections. Some former officials who have been approached about taking part say they believe it may take 18 months or more to reach its conclusions. White House officials said the president was still completing a list of who would serve on the commission, expected to have about nine members. Dan Bartlett, the White House communications director, said Sunday that they were talking to “very distinguished statesmen and women, who have served their country and who have been users of intelligence, or served in a gathering capacity.” Among those who have been consulted, officials say, is Brent Scowcroft, the national security adviser under Bush’s father. Scowcroft, who was a harsh critic of the process by which the current president decided to go to war, is currently the head of a foreign intelligence advisory board and it is unclear if he will play a role in the new commission. Bush’s effort is intended to put the study into a broader context – the retooling of American intelligence-gathering for a new era of terrorism and nuclear proliferation by rogue scientists and countries that may pass weapons into the hands of groups like Al Qaeda.

2. Pakistan Nuclear Secrets Leak

Agence France-Presse (“FOUNDER OF PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM ADMITS LEAKING SECRETS: OFFICIAL,” 02/02/04) reported that the founder of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, for decades revered as a national hero, has confessed to leaking nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea, a government official said. Qadeer admitted at the weekend to being “involved in leaking nuclear know-how outside Pakistan to groups working for Iran, Libya and North Korea,” an official involved in the two-month stated. The government official, who asked not to be named, confirmed the findings separately on Monday. He said Khan wrote his confession and everything he knew about the transfers, from 1986 to the late 1990s, in an 11-page statement. His statement was finalized shortly after the government shocked Pakistanis Saturday by sacking him as special advisor to “facilitate” the probe. The latest date transfers occurred, according to Khan’s statement, was at least as recently as 1997, the government official stated. The dramatic confessions are the result of a two-month probe, which was triggered by a letter to Islamabad from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which was based on information from Iran. The government was now considering whether to try Khan. Three retired military officers were detained and questioned during the probe, but President Pervez Musharraf and other officials have repeatedly exonerated the military of any role in the proliferation scandal.

3. US on DPRK Nuclear Talks

The Associated Press (Soo-Jeong Lee, “US OPTIMISTIC ON NORTH KOREA NUKE TALKS,” Seoul, 02/02/04) reported that Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly met the ROK’s Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun and Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon early Monday, a day after meeting Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuck. “We very much hope that the six-party talks can resume before much longer,” Kelly said in his meeting with Ban. “And I’ve been in intensive work” with Deputy Minister Lee. Kelly said Sunday that a second round of six-nation talks on the DPRK nuclear standoff could take place as early as this month. The ROK’s unification minister said Monday he will use Cabinet-level talks with the DPRK this week to urge the North to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible. The Cabinet talks will take place Tuesday to Friday in Seoul.

4. US Missile Defense Development

The Associated Press (John J. Lumpkin, “MISSILE DEFENSE SEES BOOST IN BUSH BUDGET,” Washington, 02/02/04) reported that US missile defense programs would receive a substantial spending boost in the Bush administration’s proposed 2005 budget, with money to pay for the deployment of up to 20 interceptors in California and Alaska by the end of next year. Missile defense efforts would receive almost $10.2 billion in the new budget. That is nearly a $1.2 billion increase over this year, according to budget books provided by the Pentagon. The proposed military budget, which goes to Congress to decide its fate, rings in at $401.7 billion, a 7 percent increase over this year. It represents a continuation of the Bush administration’s military policy, with some additional money for several programs. The proposed budget also includes a 3.5 percent raise in base pay for military personnel.

5. US on DPRK Reactor Program

Kyodo News (“KEDO PROTESTS N. KOREA’S REFUSAL TO LET IT REMOVE EQUIPMENT,” New York, 01/30/04) reported that executive members of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) agreed Friday to protest the DPRK’s refusal to let it remove trucks and construction equipment from the site of a suspended nuclear power plant construction project, diplomatic sources said. The agreement came at a meeting of the executive board of the multilateral consortium. On December 1, KEDO had suspended the construction of the two light-water nuclear reactors in Kumho that were being built under a 1994 agreement between the US and the DPRK. According to the sources, some members suggested at the meeting that they may stop footing their portion of the bill for the project. In a related development, the US State Department said in a statement released Friday, “We see no future for the light-water reactor project.” The situation on the ground and relations between DPRK and KEDO officials there is “normal,” KEDO spokesman Roland Tricot said. The two sides do not agree, however, about what to do with the equipment at the site – including trucks, cranes, technical documents, computers and medical equipment. KEDO wants to remove some material, while the DPRK has refused and demands compensation for the suspension. Tricot said Friday that the DPRK stance violates agreements that led to the construction. “We do not agree with the merits of the DPRK’s assertion,” Tricot said. “We hope that the DPRK would cooperate with KEDO in a way to enable the smooth implementation of the suspension.”

6. Japan Iraq Troops

Agence France-Presse (“JAPAN PM REMINDS IRAQ-BOUND TROOPS OF HUMANITARIAN GOAL,” 02/01/04) reported that Japan’s Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Sunday told troops headed to Iraq, “you are not going to war” in a ceremony before Japan’s first troop sendoff to a combat zone since World War II. During a speech to some 600 Ground Self-Defense Forces troops in a building in Asahikawa base in snowy northern Japan, Koizumi stressed the humanitarian nature of the mission, the most controversial in more than half a century. “You are not going to war and you are not going to participate in a mop-up operation against terrorists,” Koizumi told rows of troops standing in green fatigues and berets. “You will not use force, and you are not going to participate in combat,” he said. “Your activities are to help the Iraqi people have hope and rebuild their country by themselves.”

7. DPRK on Japan Economic Sanctions Bill

Agence France-Presse (“NORTH KOREA BLASTS JAPAN’S MOVE TO STOP CASH TRANSFERS,” 01/31/04) reported that the DPRK’s foreign ministry has branded as a “wanton violation” the Japanese parliament’s passing of a bill that could make it easier to block cash remittances to the country, state media reports. The bill, approved by Japan’s lower house of parliament Thursday, will enable the authorities to stop cash remittances and could be used to pressure the DPRK over the ongoing nuclear crisis and other disputes. “World history never knows such an untrustworthy country as Japan,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted a foreign ministry official as saying in a statement. “This development will bring peace and stability in Northeast Asia to a catastrophic phase and further deteriorate the situation on the Korean peninsula that has grown tense due to the nuclear issue between the DPRK and the US.”

8. Japan-US Relations

The Associated Press (Joseph Coleman, “ARMITAGE, JAPAN DISCUSS IRAQ, NORTH KOREA,” Tokyo, 02/02/04) reported that Japan’s dispatch of military forces on a humanitarian mission to Iraq signals a “historic moment” in Tokyo’s growing leadership role and its deepening alliance with the US, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said Monday. Armitage, in Japan for a two-day visit as part of a tour of Asia, also said that the dispatch was earning Japan respect that it wouldn’t have won by only contributing money to Iraqi reconstruction. Japan has pledged $5 billion. “It’s such a historic moment in the life of your nation and indeed of our alliance. Prime Minister Koizumi has set a new benchmark not just in the dispatch of Japanese Self-Defense Forces to Iraq, but also in redefining Japan’s role in the world,” Armitage said at the Japan National Press Club.

9. PRC Chemical Weapons Victims Lawsuit

Agence France-Presse (“PRC VICTIMS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS SPILL SUE JAPAN FOR APOLOGY,” 02/02/04) reported that thirty-five PRC victims of a leak from chemical weapons left by the Japanese military after World War II have filed a lawsuit calling for the Tokyo government to apologize and dispose of the armaments. The victims in December had received 300 million yen (2.8 million dollars) in compensation from the Japanese government, but they now say money alone is not enough. On Sunday they authorized an attorney to file a lawsuit against the Japanese government on their behalf. “Though we got some money after the incident, the Japanese government didn’t say what the money stands for, nor did we receive any apology from the Japanese government,” victim Ding Shuwen, 26, was quoted by Xinhua saying. “We want an apology from the Japanese government. We also urged the Japanese government to destroy all chemical weapons abandoned in China as soon as possible. Don’t let other PRC be injured anymore. It’s too painful,” said Ding,.

10. PRC-Africa Relations

Agence France-Presse (“PRC PRESIDENT BEGINS STATE VISIT TO GABON,” 02/02/04) reported that PRC President Hu Jintao arrived in a major oil-producing country, Gabon, the only sub-Saharan stop on a three-nation tour of Africa partly aimed at trading economic cooperation for raw materials. President Omar Bongo welcomed the PRC leader, whose plane arrived from Egypt at Libreville airport at 3:50 pm (1450 GMT), and Hu and his delegation were given full state honours with a 21-gun salute. Hu and the veteran central African leader then inspected a military guard in a marchpast, but their main business was not scheduled to start before Monday morning, official said. On Sunday evening, Hu will be the guest of honour at a banquet. His visit is the first to Gabon, an equatorial former French colony which lies on Africa’s Atlantic Coast, by a PRC president. Hu will use his three-day visit here to unveil the PRC’s new policy towards the whole of the African continent in a speech before parliament on Monday, PRC diplomatic sources said before he arrived from Egypt. The last leg of his trip will take him to Algeria. In Monday’s keynote speech, Hu will address parliamentarians in National Assembly buildings financed and built by China at the end of the last century. China’s ambassador to Gabon, Fan Zhenshui, has announced that Hu’s policy speech “will be directed at all of Africa”. “We have entered a new era, the 21st century, and PRC leaders have changed. There will certainly be changes in the broader picture of cooperation between China and Africa,” Fan said.

11. DPRK-Japan Abduction Issue

Yonhap (“NORTH KOREA ACCUSES JAPAN OF ABDUCTIONS,” Seoul, 02/02/04) reported that the DPRK accused Japan on Monday, February 2, of kidnapping its naturalized citizens in what appeared to be an attempt to overturn a row over the DPRK’s acknowledged abduction of Japanese people decades ago. The DPRK claim followed Japan’s move to push legislation that will make it easier for it to impose economic sanction on the communist country. A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry said that a Japanese group has smuggled over 20 people, formerly Japanese but now naturalized DPRK citizens, out of the DPRK the past few years. “Such an act is against international and our own laws and is an inhumane criminal act,” said the unidentified spokesman. “More serious is the fact that the abductions were carried out under open protection by the Japanese government.” In a report by the DPRK’s Korea Central News Agency, the ministry spokesman warned that the Japanese “abductions” would cause serious consequences.

12. Op-Ed: Philip Yun on DPRK Diplomacy

Los Angeles Times (Philip Yun, “TO UNDERSTAND NORTH KOREA, TOSS OUT OLD ASSUMPTIONS,” 02/02/04) carried an op-ed b Philip W. Yun Philip W. Yun, a State Department official during the Clinton administration, participated in negotiations with the DPRK from 1998 to 2000. Former chief weapons inspector David Kay’s criticism of US intelligence on Iraq underscores the limits of our ability to collect and interpret such data. It should also caution neocons in Washington not to be smug about the depth of US understanding of the DPRK. In early 1998, when I began my DPRK assignment at the State Department, I thought I knew all one needed to know about the country. As a Korean American whose mother was born in what is now North Korea and whose father was born in the ROK, I was a super-hawk on the DPRK: The country was totalitarian, evil and weak; the US was strong and, with enough pressure, would put this tiny nation in its place. However, I soon realized I had been viewing the DPRK and its people as caricatures and that things were not so black and white.

The key to any confrontation is to know your adversary. As the US contemplates its next steps toward Pyongyang, Bush administration officials should be mindful of the myths that they seem to harbor: the DPRK is poised to preemptively attack the ROK, the US or Japan. It’s not true. Traditional deterrence works in our favor on the Korean peninsula for now. The DPRK unquestionably has the ability to inflict massive damage in a military conflict, but it knows it would be destroyed if it attacked. Therefore, its goal has become defensive – a porcupine strategy aimed at potential aggressors.

The North has a brittle leadership susceptible to outside pressure. While China can influence the North on the margins, China probably will have little effect on DPRK behavior on core security issues. Some point to the economic leverage China holds over the North, but dependence does not always mean an ability to control behavior, considering the DPRK willingness for self-sacrifice.

DPRK negotiators say US tactics are akin to making the country “pull its pants down.” For them, weakness invites repeated intimidation, so a push inevitably leads to a harder push back. Given this, it would not be a surprise if Kim is now resolved all the more to avoid Saddam Hussein’s embarrassing fate. In the eyes of Kim, nuclear weapons may be the only way, as the North has implied.

Sketchy intelligence is the norm with North Korea. Granted, miscalculation is a fact of life, but with Pyongyang, such miscalculation would be tragic. Substance is what matters if we are to prevent both the emergence of a nuclear weapons supermarket in the region and a catastrophic war to put it out of business. But trying to stare down dangerous strongmen will, in the case of North Korea, only harden Pyongyang’s resolve.

[Editor’s note: An earlier condensed version of Yun’s op-ed appeared in the Nautilus Institute’s Virtual DPRK Briefing Book: http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKbriefingbook/multilateralTalks/Yun.html]

II. People’s Republic of China

1. ROK’s Top Advisers Replaced

China Daily (“ROK REPLACES TOP ADVISERS,” Seoul, 01/31-02/01/04, P2) reported that ROK President Roh Moo-hyun named new national security and defence advisers on January 30, the latest move in a far-reaching shake-up of his security team at a crucial time on the divided peninsula. The presidential Blue House said Kwon Chin-ho, an anti-terror expert and former deputy chief of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), had been appointed security adviser. Former naval officer Yoon Kwang-ung was named defence adviser. They replaced Ra Jong-yil, an academic and former envoy to London, and Kim Hee-sang, respectively. Foreign policy experts saw a potentially significant shift from academics to pragmatists – notably as Seoul prepares to send troops to Iraq – rather than a generation change or left-ward tilt. The Blue House gave no reason for the reshuffle, which comes less than a year into Roh’s five-year term as ROK helps to resolve a crisis over the DPRK’s nuclear arms plans and prepares to deploy 3,000 troops to Iraq. It is also ahead of an April parliamentary election Roh needs loyalists to do well in. The Blue House said Yoon would advise Roh well on changes in security and preserving the US-South Korean alliance. Roh’s spokesman said he would need more time before naming a new foreign policy adviser.

2. US on Taiwan Issue

China Daily (“US STANCE ON TAIWAN UNCHANGED,” 01/31-02/01/04, P1) Premier Wen Jiabao met US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage in Beijing on January 30 for talks on Sino-US relations and issues of mutual interest. Armitage also had separate meetings yesterday with vice-foreign ministers Dai Bingguo and Zhou Wenzhong, on bilateral ties, the Taiwan question, and the Korean nuclear issue. Armitage also met Defence Minister Cao Gangchuan yesterday afternoon. According to a Foreign Ministry official, the two sides made positive remarks on the development of Sino-US ties over the past year, in particular the results achieved during the meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President George W. Bush and Premier Wen’s meeting with President Bush on his US trip. The Chinese side reiterated its principled stance on the Taiwan question, he said. Armitage said the US side understands the importance and sensitivity of the Taiwan issue. On the question of referendums proposed by Taiwan separatists, he said, President Bush clearly expressed the US position during Premier Wen’s US trip last December and such stance of the US side has not been altered. The US side adheres to the one-China policy, observes the three China-US joint communiques, gives no support to Taiwan independence and opposes any rhetoric or actions that will unilaterally change the status of Taiwan, he reaffirmed.

3. Japan-DPRK Relations

China Daily (“JAPAN LOWER HOUSE SLAPS DPRK WITH SANCTIONS,” Tokyo, 01/30/04, P12) reported that Japan’s lower house of parliament on January 29 passed legislation that would allow Tokyo to impose economic sanctions on the DPRK, a move Pyongyang says could block a peaceful solution to a crisis over its nuclear ambitions. The legislation, jointly sponsored by the ruling coalition and main opposition Democratic Party, would let Japan slap sanctions on any country to maintain “peace and stability.” But legislators and analysts said it was aimed solely at putting pressure on the DPRK over its alleged nuclear and missile programs and its failure to explain what happened to Japanese nationals it abducted decades ago. Japan is expected to enact the legislation early next month after it goes through the upper house, party officials said. The DPRK, locked in a bitter dispute with the international community over its ambitions to garner nuclear weapons, warned against Japan’s move calling it a punitive step. Under existing Japanese law, Japan cannot impose sanctions on a country unless they are part of an international action, such as a UN resolution. The new legislation would allow it to act on its own to suspend remittances and trade, and take other steps to restrict the flow of money and goods. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has said the move to enact the legislation did not meant punitive steps were imminent, however. Some analysts believe the cash-strapped DPRK could lose its main source of hard currency if Japan imposes such sanctions, said the report.

4. Battle Against Bird Flu

China Daily (“ASIAN NATIONS UNITE TO BATTLE BIRD FLU,” Bangkok, 01/29/04, P2) reported that governments should ensure transparency and share information to contain the bird flu epidemic spreading in Asia, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said on January 28 at an international meeting on the avian virus outbreak. Describing the outbreak as “a dark side” of globalization, Thaksin noted the disease not only posed a grave economic threat but also a serious threat to public health. Initiated by the Thai Government on Saturday, the meeting was attended by officials from 13 concerned economies and experts from WHO, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health.

5. US-Russian Ties

People’s Daily (Lv Yansong, “RUSSIA TO STABLIZE POLICY TOWARDS US,” Moscow, 01/28/04, P4) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that his country’s policy on the US will be stable and predictable, quoted by the Interfax news agency as telling visiting US Secretary of State Colin Powell in the Kremlin. “The foundations of Russian-US relations are so solid that any tactical differences related to the development of our international relations and the protection of our national interests can be resolved,” Putin said. He also applauded the two nations’ cooperation in trade, battle against terrorism and restoring stability in Afghanistan. Powell said US President George W. Bush is satisfied with the way US-Russia relations are going. Solid bilateral relations have made it possible to discuss differences in a frank and honest way, he added in the report.

6. DPRK-ROK Relations

People’s Daily (Xu Baokang, “DPRK, ROK ARRIVES AT SOUTH-NORTH TRAFFIC AGREEMENT,” 01/30/04, P3) reported that the DPRK and ROK concluded their economic cooperative mechanism talks with a South-North Traffic Agreement. They have, after 3 days talks, achieved common ground on the South-North traffic and security guarantee issues, which are prerequisite for the further economic cooperation between two sides, said the report.

7. PRC on Non-Proliferation

People’s Daily (Song Guocheng, “PRC APPLIES FOR ENTRANCE TO THE NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS’ GROUP,” 01/28/03, P4) reported that PRC on January 26 formerly applied for entrance to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. Chinese representative to UN Vienna office Zhang Yan said that PRC is firmly against the proliferation of mass-destructive arms. For years, PRC communicated with the group, and adopted similar measures with the Group on nuclear export control. Zhang said that it is an important step for PRC to enter the group in supporting the international non-proliferation maneuvers, and it will be beneficial for PRC to operate with the world in non-proliferation and peaceful use of nuclear energy.

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Tokyo, Japan

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Peter Razvin: icipu@online.ru
Moscow, Russian Federation

Wu Chunsi: cswu@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia

 


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