NAPSNet Daily Report 02 August, 2001

Recommended Citation

"NAPSNet Daily Report 02 August, 2001", NAPSNet Daily Report, August 02, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-daily-report/napsnet-daily-report-02-august-2001/

 
CONTENTS

I. United States

1. Kim Jong-il’s Russian Visit
2. US Policy toward DPRK
3. DPRK Human Rights
4. DPRK Refugees in PRC
5. PRC Pursuit of US Jets
6. PRC Reconnaissance Satellites
7. US-PRC Relations
8. PRC Detention of US Scholar
9. PRC Military Exercises
10. Cross-Straits Exchanges
11. PRC View of US-Australia Relations
12. Bush’s Visit to Japan
13. Koizumi’s Shrine Visit
14. US-Japan SOFA
II. Republic of Korea 1. Italy on Inter-Korean Talks
2. US Senators to Visit ROK
3. Kim Jung Il’s Russia Trip
4. IAEA Director’s DPRK Visit
5. DPRK Criticism of US

I. United States

1. Kim Jong-il’s Russian Visit

The Washington Post (Sharon LaFraniere, “KIM HEADING FOR MOSCOW WITH EYE ON U.S.,” Moscow, 08/02/01, A12) reported that Ivo H. Daalder, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il is using his trip to Russia to reopen talks with the US. Daalder stated, “Kim wants to re-engage with the Americans, but he won’t do it as a beggar. It’s easier for him to do it through Russia, with Russia as the surrogate, even though the audience is Washington.” Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst in Moscow, argued that Russia has an incentive to encourage engagement with the DPRK to gain the upper-hand with the US over missile defense. Felgenhauer argued, “It’s important for the Kremlin to show that Kim is not a real threat, but much more civilized.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

The Wall Street Journal (Alan Cullison and Jay Solomon, “OFFICIALS HOPE MEETING OF PUTIN, KIM WILL REVIVE NORTH-SOUTH KOREA TALKS,” Moscow, 08/02/01) reported that ROK and US officials are paying close attention to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s trip to Russia. An unnamed senior ROK official stated, “This trip–due to its length and mystery–is being closely watched by our government.” He added that the trip could have profound implications “for North-South ties.” Some US and ROK observers expressed fear that Kim will use his trip to try to form a stronger military alliance with Russia. Moon Chung-in of Yonsei University stated, “In his long tour of Russia, Kim Jong Il will be able to see both the bright side and dark side of embracing economic reforms.” An unnamed US diplomat who has met with DPRK officials this year stated, “The North Koreans are trapped and don’t have many policy options open to them anymore. In the next few months, they’re going to increasingly look for new ways out of their crisis.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

The New York Times (Michael Wines, “IN WHICH WE LEARN HOW TO HIDE A HEAD OF STATE,” Omsk, 08/02/01) reported that Kim Jong-il has avoided public appearances during his current trip to Russia. Jon Wolfsthal at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington stated, “I’ve never fallen into the mindset that Kim Jong Il is a mysterious, hermetic semi-loon. Here’s a guy who does have some contact with reality, whether it’s surfing the Web or movies or whatever.” He added, however, “I don’t think he’d be comfortable walking down Broadway in New York.”

2. US Policy toward DPRK

The New York Times carried an opinion by Selig S. Harrison, director of the Century Foundation’s Korea Project (“PAINTING PYONGYANG INTO A CORNER,” Islesford, 08/02/01) which questioned whether the US President George W. Bush administration is exaggerating the DPRK missile capabilities to preserve the rationale for missile defense. The article quoted a leading DPRK general, Ri Chan-bok, as saying, “At this stage, I don’t know anybody who believes that we need nuclear weapons, but everybody is thinking in that direction in view of the hostile attitude and hostile policies of the Bush administration.” The author blamed the US for the failure to restart negotiations with the DPRK because of its insistence on putting the burden of proof on the DPRK “to demonstrate the seriousness of its desire for improved relations.” He noted, “Calling for broadened nuclear inspections not required under the agreement and for unilateral North Korean force pullbacks from the border with the South, the United States has refused to put North Korean priorities on the agenda, especially non-nuclear energy assistance pending the completion of two nuclear reactors promised in the 1994 agreement.” He argued, “The attitude underlying administration policy is that the North Koreans need us more than we need them. But this attitude ignores political realities in Pyongyang…. Kim Jong Il is ready for an opening to the United States and South Korea, but he cannot afford the appearance of bowing to superpower pressure.” He also stated, “Encouraging South Korean energy aid to the North is the key to a resumption of both the American-North Korean and South Korean-North Korean dialogues. In addition, the United States should make good on Mr. Clinton’s pledge of direct energy assistance, together with food aid, in exchange for an end to North Korean missile exports.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

3. DPRK Human Rights

The Associated Press (Erica Bulman, “U.N. HUMAN RIGHTS BODY WARNS N. KOREA,” Geneva, 07/28/01) reported that Ri Tcheul, DPRK Ambassador to the UN, submitted a report last week to the UN Human Rights Committee on how the DPRK government is complying with its obligations under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Ri argued, “One cannot find unemployment, illiteracy, homelessness, nor such social troubles as collective violence, terrorism, drug abuse or alcoholism” in the DPRK. He added, “People do not yet live in luxury, however they live without social discrimination or concerns about their future, which ensures the stability of the country on a political and social level.” Responding to the report on Friday, the committee stated, “The observance of human rights is obligatory for all nations, whether they are capitalists or socialists.” It also stated, “The committee regrets the considerable delay in submission of the report, which was due in 1987,” but added that it welcomed the opportunity to resume dialogue with the DPRK. The committee also expressed concern about the absence of independent human rights institutions and the limited number of human rights organizations given access to the country. While the DPRK’s 10- member delegation claimed that the death penalty had rarely been imposed and carried out over the last three years, the committee urged the state to abolish capital punishment completely and to cease public executions. It also urged improved prison conditions, and eliminating the papers required for domestic travel and exit visas to leave the country. The committee also requested information on the prohibition of certain publications and urged the country to lift restrictions on foreign newspapers. It also expressed concern over “substantiated allegations” of the trafficking of women, and recommended a state investigation. Committee member Ahmed Tawfik of Egypt stated, “I think it was a very good sign that after an absence of so many years the Koreans found – for reasons of their own – they had to come and justify what they are doing.”

4. DPRK Refugees in PRC

The New York Times (Don Kirk, “CHINA FERRETS OUT NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES,” Tumen, 07/30/01) reported that PRC census takers have been going from house to house in the border region with the DPRK asking questions in Chinese as a means of finding DPRK refugees. A worker at a church that ministers to the Korean-Chinese community there stated, “If you don’t understand them, they will think you do not belong, and ask for identification. They will arrest you and send you back to North Korea.” The church worker added, “The Chinese police are performing a survey covering every house from June to the end of September. Groups of police scatter around a designated area. They search everything. About 20 or 30 from my church alone have been arrested.” Many refugees believe that the publicity surrounding the family that escaped to the UN High Commissioner for Refugee’s office in Beijing gave police and security agents information on how refugees are able to get out of the PRC. An unnamed missionary stated, “If the refugee says he just came looking for food, North Korean authorities will probably let him go after a few days or a month or so. If he says he got help from a church, he’s likely to go to prison and never been seen again.” The Chinese police have also reportedly offered rewards to businessmen willing to reveal the names of DPRK refugees working for them illegally. A Korean-Chinese working with refugees in Chang Chun stated, “Conditions are getting much worse in North Korea. The number of refugees may go down slightly in the crackdown, but there’s no other way out for North Koreans. They have to keep coming, or they will die.”

5. PRC Pursuit of US Jets

The Washington Post (Philip P. Pan, “POWELL SAYS CHINA EASES PURSUIT OF U.S. JETS,” Beijing, 07/30/01, A11) reported that US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said Sunday that Chinese pilots have stopped the aggressive pursuit tactics of US surveillance planes off the PRC coast. Powell stated, “So far, since we resumed reconnaissance flights, we haven’t seen anything like the kinds of things we had been seeing before.” Powell said that this was one of many signs that the PRC was interested in improving relations with the US. [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for July 30.]

6. PRC Reconnaissance Satellites

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, “CHINESE ‘CIVILIAN’ SATELLITE A SPY TOOL,” 08/01/01, 1) reported that anonymous US intelligence officials said that the PRC military has deployed a new reconnaissance satellite that is being used to target US forces in the region. The officials said that the satellite is the PRC’s first high-resolution imaging satellite and is disguised as a civilian earth monitoring system. The satellite, secretly designated as the Jianbing-3 but publicly known as Ziyuan-2 (ZY-2), was launched September 1 from the Taiyuan Satellite Launching Center in the northern Shanxi Province. One unnamed official stated, “Contrary to officially announced civilian missions, this spacecraft is actually a high-resolution imagery satellite that is producing images of military targets in the areas surrounding China.” Richard Fisher, a specialist on the PRC military, said that the new satellite was developed as part of the PRC’s space cooperation with Brazil. He added, “These will be netted to airborne and ground-based sensors to give [the People’s Liberation Army] ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft and ships a seamless tactical-to-strategic targeting capability. This is bad news for Taiwan, and bad news for the American forces that may have to come to Taiwan’s defense.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 1.]

7. US-PRC Relations

The New York Times (Erik Eckholm, “CHINA’S NEED FOR U.S. TRADE MAY OUTWEIGH DISPUTES WITH WHITE HOUSE,” Beijing, 07/30/01) reported that diplomats said that PRC officials have recently shown a willingness to talk seriously with the US about subjects like sales of missile technology, human rights and missile defense. Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University, stated, “Even if the Bush administration hasn’t always been so friendly to China, China is trying to do all it can to improve relations. The leaders firmly believe, that a major political confrontation with the United States would undermine the broader international environment that is the basis for China’s economic modernization.” He added, “Everyone here understands that it is beyond China’s capacity to compete militarily with the United States. If we treat the U.S. as an enemy, then we’ll be taking on an enemy that’s too strong for us.” Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at the University of Michigan who was the chief Asia adviser to US President Bill Clinton, stated, “The Chinese leaders have made it clear that their concerns are overwhelmingly internal.” He noted that with entry into the World Trade Organization, unrest among laid-off workers and failing farmers, and the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, “they don’t need foreign policy distractions at this point.” Chu Shulong, a scholar at the government-affiliated Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations, noted, “We have one crisis after another, but then we always seem to get back on track.” Chu argued that while the PRC has “a fundamental interest” in access to US markets and technology, “many Chinese have a negative attitude in general about U.S. foreign policy. When an incident like the plane collision occurs, those negative emotional feelings play a bigger role.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for July 30.]

The Associated Press (Ted Anthony, “CHINA HOPEFUL ABOUT U.S. RELATIONS,” Beijing, 08/02/01) reported that PRC newspapers said that relations with the US appear to be improving. The government-run People’s Daily said Thursday that after an initial “haughty and hard-line stance” by the Bush administration, “the United States has constantly made goodwill expressions.” It added that the US-PRC relationship “has again stepped onto the path of sound development.” However Jin Canrong, a senior research fellow at the Institute of American Studies in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, cautioned, “We can’t expect too much. The best we can get is an improvement in the atmosphere and a better discussion. It looks like that is going to happen.” Mary Bullock, president of Agnes Scott College, stated, “This sense that China is coming into its own and the U.S. is not going to block it, I think that’s huge.”

8. PRC Detention of US Scholar

The Associated Press (“CHINA CONFIRMS CHARGES FOR AMERICAN,” Beijing, 08/02/01) reported that the PRC confirmed Thursday that Wu Jianmin, a PRC-born US writer who was detained in April, has been charged with spying for Taiwan. The PRC Foreign Ministry said in a brief written statement that Wu is accused of “taking money from Taiwan spy organs and entering the Chinese mainland to gather intelligence.” It gave no other details of his case, saying only that it “is progressing.” A US diplomat said Wednesday that PRC authorities accused Wu of gathering information that “endangered national security.”

Reuters (“CHINA INDICTS U.S. ACADEMIC WU, RIGHTS GROUP SAYS,” Beijing, 08/01/01) reported that the Hong Kong-based Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy said on Wednesday that detained US writer Wu Jianmin was suspected of contributing to “The Tiananmen Papers.” A Western diplomat in Beijing however, said that diplomats were unaware of any direct relation between Wu’s case and “The Tiananmen Papers.” Wu wrote a book about the 1979 Tiananmen crackdown.

9. PRC Military Exercises

The London Times (Lynne O’Donnell, “BEIJING SET TO STAGE BIGGEST WAR GAMES,” Hong Kong, 08/02/01) reported that the pro-PRC Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po said Wednesday that combined PRC Forces will start the largest military exercises ever held off Taiwan soon. PRC Minister of Defense Chi Haotian said that the PRC had not abandoned the “principle of peaceful reunification, but we will definitely not commit ourselves to the abandonment of force and we will never permit any external force to interfere in the affairs of Taiwan.” Chi said that the PRC would use force only if Taiwan declared independence or was invaded by foreign forces. [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

10. Cross-Straits Exchanges

The Los Angeles Times (Ching-Ching Ni and Tyler Marshall, “TAIWANESE JUST ADORE THE ENEMY,” Shanghai, 08/02/01, 1) reported that an estimated 800,000 Taiwanese now live full or part time in the PRC, including as many as 300,000 in Shanghai. Estimates of Taiwanese investment in the PRC range between US$40 billion and US$100 billion. [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

11. PRC View of US-Australia Relations

The Canberra Times (Lincoln Wright, “CHINESE ACCUSE US OF TOEING US LINE,” 08/02/01) and the Sydney Morning Herald (Craig Skehan, “AUSTRALIA DANCING TO US TUNE, MOCKS CHINA,” 08/02/01) reported that the PRC’s official People’s Daily criticized Australia for colluding with the US to contain the PRC with a proposed new Asia security grouping. The article said that Australia had just followed the US line, which was not in Australia’s national interest. The US commander-in-chief in the Pacific, Admiral Dennis Blair, said that he was disappointed with the article, arguing that he would welcome a contingent of PRC troops in East Timor and that cooperation on economics and security was the positive way ahead in Asia. He added that the proposed security grouping “is certainly not a new type of NATO or something directed against the Chinese.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

12. Bush’s Visit to Japan

Reuters (“BUSH MAY VISIT JAPAN IN OCTOBER,” Tokyo, 08/02/01) reported that Jiji news agency said on Thursday that US President George W. Bush may visit Japan from October 16-18. Jiji said that Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi are expected to discuss a number of issues including Japan’s economic reforms, the question of US military forces in Japan, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. An official at the US Embassy in Tokyo could not confirm the dates but added, “We’ve been saying he’d come in mid-October, so that sounds about right.”

13. Koizumi’s Shrine Visit

The Associated Press (“JAPAN LEADER MAY VISIT WAR SHRINE,” Tokyo, 08/02/01) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told PRC Ambassador Wu Dawei on Thursday that he was “thinking carefully” about whether to visit Yasukuni Shrine on August 15. The Japanese Foreign Ministry quoted Koizumi as saying, “I will make a decision after thinking carefully about the issue and listening to the opinions of various people.”

Reuters (George Nishiyama, “JAPAN’S KOIZUMI UNDER PRESSURE OVER SHRINE VISIT,” Tokyo, 08/02/01) reported that a group representing Christian organizations and other peace activists, including a group of war veterans, demonstrated outside the Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s residence on Thursday, urging him not to pay homage at Yasukuni Shrine. The group handed out a letter that said, “The prime minister should think about why the Yasukuni visit invites strong criticism both at home and from overseas…. We strongly demand that he cancel the visit and thereby move a step toward friendly relations with our neighbors.” Shigenori Nishikawa, a representative of the group, stated, “He is the one who has the highest responsibility for the nation and he must not make a mistaken decision. Otherwise, we will become a country that Asia cannot trust.” A Japanese official quoted PRC Ambassador Wu Dawei as telling Koizumi, “The interest of the Chinese government and the people is focused on the Yasukuni issue. A proper understanding of history is vital for the Japan-China relations.”

14. US-Japan SOFA

Pacific Stars and Stripes (Mark Oliva and Chiyomi Sumida, “BAKER TELLS INAMINE SOFA NEEDS NO REVISION,” Naha, 08/01/01) reported that US Ambassador to Japan Howard Baker during a meeting Monday with Okinawa Governor Keiichi Inamine voiced his opposition to changing the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Baker stated, “I believe the issue is not (the revision of) the SOFA itself, but rather the revision of how it’s implemented.” He pledged to try to improve the US relationship with Okinawa, but added, “We know the importance of Okinawa to the strategic security in the region. To maintain this, we must keep troops on the island.” Inamine argued, “People here want effective and feasible measures to prevent … incidents and they feel that changing SOFA provisions would help to curb the recurrence.” Inamine also stated, “Okinawa acknowledges the importance of the bilateral security treaty, however, the treaty should also cover various problems arising from the arrangement. Reducing the military presence on Okinawa is the fundamental issue. The relocation of Futenma air station, changes in provisions of SOFA and enforcement of tighter discipline to curb criminal behaviors by servicemembers – all of these issues must be addressed and improved. This is what the people of Okinawa truly desire to see.” [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 2.]

II. Republic of Korea

1. Italy on Inter-Korean Talks

The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, “ITALIAN ENVOY URGES N.K. TO RESUME TALKS,” Seoul, 08/02/01) reported that the DPRK should respond to growing international calls for renewed dialogue with the ROK in order to ease tension on the Korean Peninsula and maintain peace in Northeast Asia, the Italian Ambassador to the ROK said. Ambassador Carlo Trezza said that Italy plans to build upon its relationship with the DPRK in an effort to encourage the DPRK to further open up to the international community.

2. US Senators to Visit ROK

Chosun Ilbo (Heo Yong-beom, “US SENATORS TO VISIT SEOUL ON AUGUST 10,” Seoul, 08/01/01) reported that US Senator Joseph Biden, new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will visit the ROK with three other members of Congress on August 10, an ROK government official said Wednesday. Biden will be accompanied by fellow Senators Paul Sarbanes, Fred Thompson, and Arlen Specter on a military flight to Seoul, where they will meet with ROK President Kim Dae-jung and exchange view on the government’s DPRK policy and the reopening of dialogue between the US and the DPRK.

3. Kim Jung Il’s Russia Trip

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, “N.K. GENERAL KIM YONG-CHUN JOINS MOSCOW TRIP,” Seoul, 08/02/01) reported that it has been lately confirmed that Kim Yong-chun was among the party members accompanying DPRK Leader Kim Jong-il to his trip to Moscow on Wednesday August 1. It has not been confirmed when and how he came to join Kim’s party, but one high-level ROK government source said that Kim Yong-chun has joined Chairman Kim since July 30, the day he arrived at Russian city of Omsk. “It’s true that Kim Yong-chun was left behind to attend the Pyongyang meeting,” Jung Chang-hyun, a researcher of the Unification Research Institute (URI) in Seoul said. “He must’ve caught up with the others by plane so as not to miss military talks between the North and Russia for the upcoming summit.”

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Seok-hwan, “KIM TOURS ARMS PLANTS, BACON FACTORY IN SIBERIA,” Moscow, 08/02/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il visited several defense contractors in the Siberian city of Omsk, Russia on Tuesday. The only other time Kim has gotten off his train since he left for Moscow was at Lake Baikal. In Omsk, he watched a performance by a Russian military choir and visited several weapons plants and a bacon factory. He expressed particular interest in Transmach, the company that builds T-80U and T-90U tanks, and Palyot, which manufactures planes and satellites. Analysts said that the visit signals the DPRK’s urgent desire for expanded military cooperation with Russia.

4. IAEA Director’s DPRK Visit

Joongang Ilbo (Ju Yong-jung, “IAEA SAFEGUARDS DIRECTOR TO VISIT NORTH THIS MONTH,” Seoul, 08/02/01) reported that Olli Heinonen, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Safeguards Department, is likely to visit the DPRK at the end of this month. David Kyd the spokesman for IAEA, revealed in his e-mail interview with Yonhap News Agency that Heinonen would visit the DPRK prior to attending September’s annual IAEA meeting in Vienna, Austria. Heinonen’s visit is expected to gain much attention with an annual IAEA meeting coming up in September, the 17th IAEA- DPRK working-level negotiation slated for October, and heightened US cries for verification of the DPRK’s nuclear program.

5. DPRK Criticism of US

Joongang Ilbo (Ju Yong-jung, “NORTH BLASTS U.S. RESPONSIBLE FOR HALT IN INTER-KOREAN DIALOGUE,” Seoul, 08/02/01) reported that the DPRK on Wednesday, August 1 condemned the US for being responsible of cutting the inter-Korean dialogue and reviving the Cold War sentiment within the Korean Peninsula. Yang Hyong-sop, Vice President of the Presidium of the DPRK’s Supreme People’s Assembly, insisted that the US has tried to crush the DPRK with a hard-line policy during the reporting assembly held in People’s Palace of Culture, reported state-controlled Radio Pyongyang the same day.

The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are available to all recipients. For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather information for this report, or for more information on web sites with related information, see the collection of other NAPSNet resources.
We invite you to reply to today’s report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network.

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Gee Gee Wong: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun: khs688@hotmail.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao: yule111@sina.com
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au
Clayton, Australia

 


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.