APRIL 29, 2023 PETER HAYES I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Peter Hayes analyzes the five key elements of the Biden-Yoon Washington Declaration; and concludes: “Yoon’s January 2023 nuclear proliferation demarche and the US response have made the peninsula, the region, and the world more insecure whilst doing nothing to actually reduce the risk of nuclear […]
DAVID VON HIPPEL, EVA LISOWSKI, PETER HAYES, SHATABHISHA SHETTY, TATSUJIRO SUZUKI, FUMIHIKO YOSHIDA, MICHIRU NISHIDA, STEVE FREEDKIN MARCH 31 2023 I. INTRODUCTION This report summarizes the second year of work on estimating the humanitarian impacts of nuclear war in Northeast Asia. Based on five of the thirty plausible nuclear use cases developed in year 1 […]
ALLAN BEHM FEBRUARY 22 2023 I. INTRODUCTION In this report, Allan Behm argues that the 2021 AUKUS agreement “remains essentially an exercise in political theatre, lacking in both legal enforceability and a wealth of practical detail—and Australia is no closer to the actual acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines than it was when the agreement was […]
CHEON, MYEONGGUK DECEMBER 5, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, CHEON Myeongguk explores the possible implications of the Ukraine conflict on the ROK attitudes regarding nuclear weapons. He concludes that the “ROK’s indigenous nuclear option would be a last resort as a deterrence measure against DPRK’s nuclear threat. This option would only be considered by […]
ALLAN BEHM, REAR ADMIRAL PETER BRIGGS (RETIRED), COMMODORE PAUL GREENFIELD RAN (RETIRED) NOVEMBER 16 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this report, the authors identify the principal factors that need to be identified and addressed if Australia is to pursue the nuclear propulsion option for its next generation submarines. They conclude: “The most important consideration is ensuring that […]
ANASTASIA BARANNIKOVA NOVEMBER 7, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Anastasia Barannikova argues that although the situation in Ukraine does not affect Russia’s nuclear posture/strategy in Northeast Asia directly, direct impacts of the situation in Ukraine on Russia’s nuclear policies in this region cannot be ruled out. Examples of such indirect impacts include changes […]
PETER HAYES OCTOBER 30, 2022 INTRODUCTION Peter Hayes argues that “going nuclear will not help South Korea deal with the threat posed by its northern neighbor.” Peter Hayes is Director of the Nautilus Institute and Honorary Professor at the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, and Senior Research Advisor of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network. […]
PAUL K. DAVIS OCTOBER 27, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this Policy Forum essay, Paul Davis argues: “Anyone sensible worries that a first nuclear use might well lead to escalation and general nuclear war, but the adjective “inexorably” should no longer be included.” He concludes that the Ukraine war has made the range of nuclear-use cases […]
TONG ZHAO OCTOBER 13, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this Policy Forum essay, Tong Zhao argues that China fundamentally sees the Ukraine conflict as being caused by hegemonic behavior by the US-led West forcing Russia’s hand. China has been watching and learning from Russia’s implicit use of nuclear threat, and the lessons learned may add Tong […]
ALEXANDRE Y. MANSOUROV OCTOBER 7, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In the Policy Forum essay that follows, Alexandre Mansourov argues that the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict by DPRK leadership may make the DPRK more likely to conclude that having nuclear weapons capability will not necessarily translate to victory in a war on the Korean peninsula, […]
