RADIOLOGICAL RISK FROM ACCIDENT OR ATTACK AT NUCLEAR ENERGY FACILITIES IN CHINA

DAVID VON HIPPEL AND PETER HAYES FEBRUARY 22, 2018 I.  INTRODUCTION In this essay, David von Hippel and Peter Hayes conclude that: “A worst case” event involving one of the Ling’Ao spent fuel pools could yield exposures sufficient to cause hundreds of thousands of premature cancer deaths and almost certainly require the abandonment of one […]

MANAGING THE JOINT SECURITY AREA AND THE RISK OF WAR IN KOREA

PETER HAYES FEBRUARY 13, 2018 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Peter Hayes argues: “In short, sudden surprise events, the use of weapons, and subsequent escalation remain all too possible at the JSA.  It is essential that the tension be reduced and underlying conditions that lead to defections be addressed while the Korean conflict is resolved […]

US FORCES KOREA: NONCOMBATANT EMERGENCY EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS

PETER HAYES FEBRUARY 8, 2018    I.  INTRODUCTION In this essay, Peter Hayes describes US Force Korea’s “NONCOMBATANT EMERGENCY EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS” issued in 1967, 1983, and 2010.  He concludes that: “These documents provide a realistic sense of the demanding, time consuming, and complicated task of evacuating noncombatants from Korea, and suggest it would be difficult […]

REDUCING THE RISK THAT SOCIAL MEDIA STORMS TRIGGER NUCLEAR WAR: ISSUES AND ANTIDOTES

PETER HAYES FEBRUARY 1, 2018   I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Peter Hayes concludes that:  “Some form of independent, impartial, and pre-existing global early warning system may be useful to all nuclear armed states to provide a supplementary way to check not only the truth content of these alerts and social media storms, but the […]

PEACEMAKING IN PURSUIT OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: COMPREHENSIVE MOVES TOWARDS A NUCLEAR-FREE KOREAN PENINSULA CONFERENCE SYNTHESIS REPORT

PETER HAYES AND BINOY KAMPMARK JANUARY 25, 2018 I.  INTRODUCTION   In this synthesis report, Peter Hayes and Binoy Kampmark summarize and assess deliberations between policymakers, analysts and experts on the subject of a future nuclear-free Korean Peninsula at the Korean National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA), Seoul, the Republic of Korea (ROK), on December 11 and 12, […]

NON-STATE TERRORISM AND INADVERTENT NUCLEAR WAR

PETER HAYES JANUARY 18, 2018  I.  INTRODUCTION   In this essay, Peter Hayes concludes that: “Each nuclear armed state will make its moves in response to the posited terrorist nuclear attack partly in response to its expectations as to how other nuclear armed states will perceive and respond to these moves—and considered together, it is obvious […]

HISTORICAL IMPLICATION OF SPENT FUEL RISK: PERSPECTIVES FROM NAGASAKI

FUMIHIKO YOSHIDA AND TATSUJIRO SUZUKI DECEMBER 28, 2017 I.  INTRODUCTION   In this essay, Fumihiko Yoshida and Tatsujiro Suzuki conclude that: “nuclear weapon states and nuclear-umbrella states which own spent nuclear fuel must face the risk of possible military attack (or terrorism) on spent fuel. For those who depend on nuclear deterrence, confronting such spent […]

THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROBLEM

KEVIN RUDD DECEMBER 21, 2017 I.  INTRODUCTION In this essay, Kevin Rudd argues: “Diplomacy will be essential to avoid sleepwalking into war in Northeast Asia, and to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The key objective is to preserve peace and prosperity in the region. Armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula is an increasing possibility – […]