Nuclear next-use drivers and global solution drivers

Nuclear next-use drivers and global solution drivers

Table A1: Complete listing of nuclear next-use drivers and solution drivers

Predictable Problem-Drivers

1. Great power unilateralism and conflict undermine global security governance.
2. Interstate security dilemmas drive regional proliferation
3. Domestic imperatives drive post-colonial states
4. Nuclear states fail to control leaks from stockpiles
5. Crisis management fails due to increasing numbers of nuclear-armed states
6. Nuclear weapons establishments drive nuclear modernization
7. Great powers hedge against uncertainty
8. WMD threat grows against vulnerable infrastructure
9. Global markets rapidly diffuse modern industrial capacities via commerce
10. Increased cross-border flows of people

Unpredictable Problem-Drivers

5. Near or actual nuclear next-use by a state
6. Nuclear next-use by a sub-national actor
7. The number and intensity of internal wars in1`creases
8. Great power interventions increase
9. Mega-terrorism
10. New global cold war
11. Technological breakthroughs
12. Space-based nuclear weapons or infrastructure
13. Major nuclear weapons accident


Predictable Solution-Drivers

6. Momentum of residual, traditional arms control-disarmament institutions
7. Extended nuclear deterrence remains general and sufficient
8. IAEA grows teeth
9. Transparency increases so that proliferators are discovered immediately
10. New technical barriers impede un-authorized access and attack
11. Conventional weapons are more lethal, smaller, faster, cheaper

Unpredictable Drivers, Solutions

6. Cooperative engagement is more effective than unilateral military intervention
7. Some nuclear or proliferating states simply collapse
8. The United States and/or great powers defeat-in-detail proliferators
9. Civil society networks take charge
10. New national pro-abolition political leadership emerges
11. Defensive technologies and “revolution in military affairs” devalue offensive
nuclear threats while controls succeed on alternative offensive threats
12. Borders dissolve or crossed so often
13. UN Security Council creates a meaningful multilateral framework
14. Extra-planetary threat to human survival.