IMPLICATIONS OF THE UKRAINE WAR FOR ROK SECURITY

CHEON, MYEONGGUK DECEMBER 5, 2022 I.  INTRODUCTION In this essay, CHEON Myeongguk explores the possible implications of the Ukraine conflict on the ROK attitudes regarding nuclear weapons. He concludes that the “ROK’s indigenous nuclear option would be a last resort as a deterrence measure against DPRK’s nuclear threat. This option would only be considered by […]

AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE SUBMARINES: AN EXPLAINER

ALLAN BEHM, REAR ADMIRAL PETER BRIGGS (RETIRED), COMMODORE PAUL GREENFIELD RAN (RETIRED) NOVEMBER 16 2022   I.  INTRODUCTION In this report, the authors identify the principal factors that need to be identified and addressed if Australia is to pursue the nuclear propulsion option for its next generation submarines. They conclude: “The most important consideration is ensuring that […]

4 DECADES OF RECKONING WITH NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR THREAT – AND COUNTING

PETER HAYES OCTOBER 30, 2022 INTRODUCTION Peter Hayes argues that “going nuclear will not help South Korea deal with the threat posed by its northern neighbor.” Peter Hayes is Director of the Nautilus Institute and Honorary Professor at the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, and Senior Research Advisor of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network. […]

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE FOR NORTHEAST ASIA

PAUL K. DAVIS OCTOBER 27, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this Policy Forum essay, Paul Davis argues: “Anyone sensible worries that a first nuclear use might well lead to escalation and general nuclear war, but the adjective “inexorably” should no longer be included.” He concludes that the Ukraine war has made the range of nuclear-use cases […]

BIRDS OF A FEATHER: THOUGHTS ON PYONGYANG’S LESSONS FROM THE WAR IN UKRAINE

ALEXANDRE Y. MANSOUROV OCTOBER 7, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In the Policy Forum essay that follows, Alexandre Mansourov argues that the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict by DPRK leadership may make the DPRK more likely to conclude that having nuclear weapons capability will not necessarily translate to victory in a war on the Korean peninsula, […]

RUSSIA, AMERICA AND NUCLEAR THRESHOLD(S)

ROBERT AYSON SEPTEMBER 30 2022 INTRODUCTION In this essay, Robert Ayson argues that “Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is unlikely to disappear or become more reasonable. But what he decides to do with Russia’s nuclear arsenal matters more than what he chooses to say about it.” He concludes that “it’s time for Asia-Pacific powers–especially India and China–to […]

THE CROSSROADS OF ATOMIC WARFARE IN ONE FAMILY

MICHAEL ROACH AUGUST 6 2022 I.  INTRODUCTION   In this essay, Michael Roach provides a remarkable account of multigenerational involvement in nuclear war, starting with a previously unpublished photo of the starboard nose of the Enola Gay bomber that delivered the first atomic bomb and returned to Tinian airfield, showing the inscription “First Atomic Bomb […]

SURVEYING THE WMD LANDSCAPE IN ASIA-PACIFIC

PETER HAYES AND SHATABHISHA SHETTY MARCH 31 2022 I.  INTRODUCTION In their introduction to the book WMD in Asia-Pacific, Peter Hayes and Shatabhisha Shetty highlight key findings in the 18 chapters, examine seven nuclear force traits or tradeoffs that come with nuclear armament and shape the identity of the nuclear weapon-possessors in this region and […]