Archives

You are here: Home » NAPSNet » Archive by category "Policy Forum" ( Page 9)

O Divine Art of Subtlety and Secrecy in the Age of Nuclear Byzantine Generals

Never trust t-shirt

Peter Hayes writes: “Ultimately, commanders have to trust themselves, their staff, and their organization. But if …problem[s] reside in the nature of nuclear warfare itself, and the organizations are incapable of perfect implementation of nuclear strategy…then nuclear weapons are fatally flawed as a means of warfare…” Hayes quips, “Perhaps [we] should revise [the NRA] slogan: “Guns don’t kill people, people do” to: “Nuclear weapons don’t start nuclear wars; nuclear weapons organizational systems and people do.”

Peter Hayes is Professor of International Relations, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Australia and Director, Nautilus Institute.

Could a Maritime Conflict Start a Sino-American War?

China’s amphibious warships conduct training session (sina.com)

Mark Valencia writes, “There is now little doubt that China and the West are going to clash. They are already competing in both military and civilian areas and more fundamentally in values and the pursuit of political power. The as yet unanswered questions are will the conflicts become “physical” and, if so, how and why?”

Mark Valencia is Senior Visiting Scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Haikou, China and a Nautilus Institute Associate.

Rolling Reforms: Reflections on Visits to Kim Jong Un’s North Korea

Traffic jam in May 2013 in Pyongyang - youtube.

On visits to North Korea since Kim Jong Un came to power, Rudiger Frank has seen growing evidence of a more diverse and cash-based economy. These signs of creeping reform are evidence of North Korea’s desire for change, but achieving real transformation remains a long and delicate process.

Rudiger Frank is Chair Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna and Head of the Department of East Asian Studies. He has visited North Korea numerous times.

This report was originally published by Global Asia in June of 2013 (V8N2).

The Case of the Rescinded Invite

B-52 Stratofortress bomber from the 96th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron lands on Andersen AFB, Guam. Photo source: US Air Force

Roger Cavazos asks, “What happened to Ambassador Robert King’s invite to North Korea?”  How could things have gone so disastrously off-track in 72 hours and what does it mean for the future of the relationships between the U.S. and North Korea?   Roger Cavazos is a Nautilus Institute Associate and retired US military officer with assignments in the intelligence and policy communities.

Learning as a Change Catalyst for Climate Adaptation

Saleem Janjua advocates an analysis of how organizations learn from their own experience, other organizations, and how they develop their own internal understanding and framework for action under climate change.

Saleem Janjua is the Climate Change Adpation contributor to the NAPSNet Weekly Report, and the Editor of AdaptNet.

Non-State Nuclear Attack Urban Target Arrays—Pathways and Risk Reduction Strategies

city with mushroom cloud overhead

In this policy forum essay, Peter Hayes argues that a determined non-state nuclear terrorist can choose to threaten any one of hundreds of cities, with a nuclear weapon, with a radiological weapon, or by attacking nuclear facilities.  The key risk reduction measures are to reduce numbers and increase security of nuclear weapons; favor urban form that increases urban resilience; and ensure spent fuel and reactors are extremely difficult to attack.

Peter Hayes is Professor of International Relations, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Australia and Director, Nautilus Institute.

A New Day in Northeast Asia?

roadblock kaesong

James Goodby and Markku Heiskanen assess the significance of the recently reached agreement to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They write: “it shows a readiness to negotiate on both sides and could be seen as a first success for “trustpolitik,” President Park’s description of her hopes for North-South relations. Perhaps it signals the beginning of a new day in Korea.”
James Goodby is a former US ambassador to Finland now affiliated with Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and with the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

Markku Heiskanen is a retired Finnish diplomat, now program director of The Asia Institute in Seoul.

Connecting the Dots – In an Ocean?

connecting dots scribbles

Nikhil Desai questions the dubious connection between violence and crime and regional and global rises in temperatures.

Nikhil Desai, a Nautilus Associate, is an energy and environmental economist now dividing his time between Washington, DC and Ahmedabad, India.

“The Papua-New Guinea Solution”: Competitive Cruelty and Strategic Folly

Richard Tanter writes that policy competition between the Labor government and conservative opposition to “stop the boats” bringing asylum seekers to Australia by ship is producing strategically dangerous outcomes. Both government and opposition are now committed to isolating all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat in Papua-New Guinea, in cluding successful applicants for asylum. It is hard, Tanter concludes, “to think of anything else an Australian government could do in a single policy move more likely to undermine the already limited chances of sustainable peace in Papua-New Guinea.”

Richard Tanter is a Nautilus Institute Associate and Professor in the School of Political and Social Studies at the University of Melbourne.