APSNet for 20061023
Austral Peace and Security Network (APSNet)
Bi-weekly report from the Nautilus Institute at RMIT, Australia.
Monday 23 October 2006
- Australia: Spies’ Iraq Outlook Bleak
- The Genteel Revolt that Is Remaking US Policy on Iraq
- Australia Would Join N Korea Blockade
- Technical Analysis of the DPRK Nuclear Test
- Australia Condemned over Solomons Raid
- Outbreak of Violence Halted in East Timor
- Secret Service: Australia’s Spy Masters Show their Face
Spies’ Iraq Outlook Bleak, Patrick Walters, Australian, 2006-10-21
John Howard has been delivered a bleak intelligence assessment on Iraq. The top-secret analysis led by the peak assessment agency, the Office of National Assessments [ONA], this month shows an increasing risk to coalition forces from sectarian militias and terrorist groups operating inside Iraq.
The Soldiers Who Answer the Call to War, Tom Hyland, Age, 2006-10-22
The Genteel Revolt that Is Remaking US Policy on Iraq, Julian Borger, Guardian, 2006-10-21
A “polite rebellion” is under way among previously loyal allies of President Bush aimed at persuading him to change course in Iraq. The eight options that Washington and London are discussing: 1 British out now; 2 US coalition out now; 3 Phased withdrawal; 4 Talk to Iran and Syria; 5 Iraqi strongman at the head of a junta; 6 Break-up of Iraq; 7 Redeploy and contain; 8 One last push.
Break-Up of Iraq Threatens Mideast Stability, Juan Cole, Informed Comment, 2006-10-22
US offers Amnesty in Secret Talks, James Hider, Times, 2006-10-23
Australia Would Join N Korea Blockade, AAP, SMH, 2006-10-23
Defence Minister Brendan Nelson today tipped that an Australian warship would participate in a UN blockade of North Korean shipping. “We look at what’s happening in North Korea. It is quite possible that we will have one of our ships involved in making sure that the peace and security of our region and our world is supported,” he said.
Most Reject a War with N Korea: Poll, AAP, Age, 2006-10-23
Technical Analysis of the DPRK Nuclear Test, Jungmin Kang and Peter Hayes, NAPSNet, 2006-10-20
Having tested and failed, the DPRK can no longer rely on opacity as the basis for having a credible nuclear force, at least sufficiently credible to threaten its adversaries with a nuclear explosion.
A Technical Analysis of North Koreas Oct. 9 Nuclear Test, Richard L. Garwin and Frank N. von Hippel, Arms Control Association, November 2006
Australia Condemned over Solomons Raid, AAP, Age, 2006-10-23
Melanesian leaders have strongly condemned Australian-led police officers who raided the office of the Solomon Islands prime minister over the Julian Moti affair. Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and counterparts from Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Vanuatu described the raid by members of the Australian-led Participating Police Force (PPF) in the Solomons as provocative and unnecessary.
Solomons Solicitor-General Departs as Conditions Worsen, RNZI, 2006-10-22
Urwin Says RAMSI Must Continue, Samantha Magick, Pacific Magazine, 2006-10-23
Lift Your Game, PM Tells Pacific, Hamish McDonald, Craig Skehan and Cynthia Banham, SMH, 2006-10-23
Special Report: Solomon Islands – Background, APSNet, 2006-05-01
Outbreak of Violence Halted in East Timor, AFP, IHT, 2006-10-22
East Timor UN peacekeepers were brought in Sunday to restore order to the capital of East Timor when fighting broke out between rival ethnic gangs after the discovery of two mutilated bodies. The fighting – mostly stone throwing – took place at the Comoro market but was halted by the arrival of about 100 peacekeeping troops. No arrests were made.
Transcript of Press Conference with Acting SRSG Finn Reske-Nielsen and UNMIT Acting Police Commissioner Antero Lopes, UN Office in Timor Leste (UNOTIL), 2006-10-20
Secret Service: Australia’s Spy Masters Show their Faces, Sarah Smiles, Age, 2006-10-21
The heads of Australia’s spy agencies made a rare appearance in public yesterday to explain their expanded role and systems of accountability in a post-September 11 world. Peter Varghese, director-general of the Office of National Assessments, said the overall budget for the six intelligence agencies has ballooned from $574 million at the time of the attacks to $885 million. Staffing has soared from 2200 to 3800.
The Australian Intelligence Community: Agencies, Functions, Accountability and Oversight, Commonwealth of Australia, October 2006 [PDF]
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Permalink: This issue of Austral Peace and Security Network can be found at http://nautilus.rmit.edu.au/2006/20061023.html.