Response to “DPRK “Collapse” Pathways: Implications for the Energy Sector and for Strategies Redevelopment/Support”
January 18, 2011
The following are comments on the essay, “DPRK “Collapse” Pathways: Implications for the Energy Sector and for Strategies Redevelopment/Support” by Peter Hayes and David von Hippel, which appeared as a NAPSNet Special Report on January 17, 2011.
This response includes comments by Aidan Foster-Carter, Honorary Senior Research Fellow in Sociology & Modern Korea, Leeds University, UK.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on contentious topics in order to identify common ground.
II. Comments by Aidan Foster-Carter
In their recent paper, Peter Hayes and David von Hippel cite me as a long-running “collapsist” vis-a-vis the DPRK; which, as they note, has thus far signally failed to collapse.
Guilty as charged, your honour. (Pauses to wipe egg from face.)
In perhaps slight mitigation, I would plead as follows:
1. My main point was always the converse: that hopes of a peaceful evolution are, unfortunately, improbable. I nonetheless still believe that we must try to achieve this.
2. The German precedent warns us to expect the unexpected.
3. Not before time, I have recently rethought the matter. I now expect that China will step in to prevent any risk of collapse. This new view I argue in the articles linked below.
Of course, I might prove quite wrong about that as well.
Time will tell.
Honorary Senior Research Fellow in Sociology & Modern Korea, Leeds University, UK
Forthcoming and recent articles, broadcasts and other activities on Korea (mostly):
Jan 31, 2011 “North Korea: China’s Coming Takeover” 3rd Annual Bristol Lecture in East Asian Studies. Room 2D1, University of Bristol, Social Sciences Complex, Priory Road, Bristol, 4 – 5.30pm.
Nov 26 “China Help with North Korea? Fuggedaboutit!” (sic) Foreign Policy (online)
Oct 28 North Korea: Embracing the dragon. NK links with China deepen by the day Asia Times Online
Sep 16 How North Korea was lost – to China Lead story in Asia Times Online
Sep 13 North Korea’s future is as a Chinese satellite (letter in the Financial Times)
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