SANDNet Weekly Update, October 5, 2001

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CONTENTS
October 5, 2001
Volume 2, #39

Nuclear Issues

1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety

Terrorist Attack and Aftermath

1. Afghanistan: Current Situation
2. Afghanistan: Future Prospects
3. Pakistan Role
4. Assessment of Pakistan Role
5. India Role
6. US Policy

India

1. US-India Relations
2. China-India Relations

Pakistan

1. Pakistan Domestic Situation
2. India-Pakistan Relations


Nuclear Issues

1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has said that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are extremely safe and there are no extremists within the armed forces who could try to seize control of them in the current crisis.


Terrorist Attack and Aftermath

1. Afghanistan: Current Situation

Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance Friday said it was not going to wait for US retribution strikes against the Taliban and would launch a major offensive Saturday.

The United States reportedly is in regular contact with Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance despite Pakistan’s misgivings.
“U.S. decision on arming Northern Alliance soon”

Russia’s Defence Minister, Mr. Sergei Ivanov, said Russia has mounted a large-scale operation to airlift arms and ammunition to the Northern Alliance.
“Russia airlifts arms to Northern Alliance”

Osama bin Laden reportedly is in a state-of-the-art military base in an extremely inaccessible nook of Pamir mountain range.

Mulla Omar warned that in the event of attack the Taliban, if deposed by the former Afghan monarch Zahir Shah, would retreat to the mountains and wage a long war.
” Mulla Omar warns of long war if govt toppled “

Jane’s Defense Review warns that oncoming winter in Afghanistan will hinder success of a military offensive.

Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow US forces to strike Afghanistan from its Saudi bases reportedly has forced the US to scale down its response.

The United States and Pakistan have exchanged intelligence information concerning the location of eighty Stinger missiles believed to be in Taliban possession.

2. Afghanistan: Future Prospects

V. R. Raghavan discusses how the coming war in Afghanistan will require great patience and perseverance among the principal states involved.
“War in Afghanistan”

Sudha Ramachandran writes that the US believes Zahir Shah can unify the Northern Alliance so that it can replace the Taliban in Kabul.

Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Director of the Area Study Centre at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, discusses prospects for the US to achieve its apparent goal of replacing the Taliban.

C. Raja Mohan comments that many observers in India are disappointed that the US has not yet launched military operations.
“Replacing Taliban: mixing diplomacy with force”

K. Santhanam argues for a much stronger United Nations role in Afghanistan than is currently envisioned.
“The U.N. and Afghanistan”

3. Pakistan Role

Pakistan on Friday reportedly banned any civilian use of its airspace above 30,000 feet.

The United States has warned Pakistan of possible biological warfare and attacks and asked it to prepare contingency plans.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf Friday gave sweeping powers to security officials in the federal capital to protect government buildings and important installations from terrorist attacks.

President Pervez Musharraf on Wednesday told a joint meeting of the National Security Council and the federal cabinet that anticipated military actions were not a war against Afghanistan but targeted only at terrorists.

4. Assessment of Pakistan Role

Najmuddin A Shaikh, a former Pakistan foreign secretary, urges the Pakistan government to put aside its reservations and support ex-King Zahir Shah’s return to Afghanistan.

Hamida Khuhro urges Pakistan to support ouster of the Taliban as a restoration of Islam.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute describes a multi-lateral plan for handling the Afghan crisis.

Muhammad Ijazul Haq, son of General Ziaul Haq and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, discusses how Pakistan can take a leading role in resolving the Afghan crisis.

C. Raja Mohan, in New Delhi, questions whether the US will restrain Pakistan’s support for terrorist activities in Kashmir.
“Can U.S. restrain Pakistan?”

P. S. Suryanarayana discusses Pakistan’s role in the emerging “new strategic milieu.”
“Pakistan-U.S. strategic idiom”

Tapan Bose, Secretary-General of the South Asian Forum for Human Rights in Kathmandu, Nepal, urges attention to the humanitarian dimensions of the current crisis.

5. India Role

India has expressed its frustration to the US over Pakistan’s continued complicity in terrorism in Kashmir, and over India’s circumscribed role in US plans for action in the region.
“It’s time to restrain Pak., PM tells Bush”

The issue of Kashmir has become a central point of discussion regarding India’s role in the current crisis.
“India suggests monitoring of terrorism”

I.D. Swami, India’s deputy home minister, said on Wednesday that India has considered military strikes on alleged guerilla camps in Azad Kashmir to combat the “insurgency.”

Russia is urging India to play an active role in support of the Northern Alliance.
“Play active role in Afghanistan, Russia urges India”

6. US Policy

Strikes against Afghanistan reportedly are awaiting completion of diplomatic rather than military preparations.

M.J. Akbar speculates that the onset of military action may initiate a familiar pattern of escalation.
“As history repeats itself”

Kesava Menon questions whether US aims reach well beyond interdiction of Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda network.
“The intellectual basis of jehad”

Prof Khalid Mahmud warns against US overreaction.

The United States reportedly may offer gunship helicopters and intelligence equipment to Pakistan to help patrol the Afghan border.


India

1. US-India Relations

Two authors discuss the prospects for future US-India relations in the context of the terrorism crisis.
“We must be neither with the terrorists nor with the U.S.”
“Relating to the new paradigm”

2. China-India Relations

Zhao Qizheng, Minister of the State Council Information Office, stated that China is confident of building a friendly and cooperative relationship with India on the basis of the “panchsheel agreement.”
“China for friendly ties with India”


Pakistan

1. Pakistan Domestic Situation

Sultan Mohammad Khan reviews President Pervez Musharraf’s September 19 address to the nation.

B. Muralidhar Reddy discusses Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s challenges in maintaining domestic authority.
“The siege within”

M B Naqvi in Karachi asserts that many in Pakistan welcome the government’s apparent turn away from Muslim nationalism.

2. India-Pakistan Relations

Dr Moonis Ahmar, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi, urges India not to exploit the current situation in ways that will increase Pakistani hostility toward India.

 


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