CONTENTS
October 25, 2001
Volume 2, #41
Nuclear Issues
1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety
2. India Nuclear Safety
3. China and Pakistan
Afghanistan War and Implications
1. Afghanistan: Current Situation
2. Afghanistan: Future Prospect
3. Pakistan
4. India
5. Regional Issues
6. U.S. Role
7. General Assessments
Pakistan
1. Pakistan Domestic Situation
2. Pakistan-India Relations
3. Pakistan-U.S. Relations
India
1. India Domestic Situation
2. India-Pakistan Relations
3. India-U.S. Relations
4. India-Russia Relations
Kashmir
1. Internal Situation
2. India and Pakistan
3. United States
Nuclear Issues
1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety
General Musharraf reiterated that Pakistan will not let any country pressure it to change its nuclear weapons policy. During his visit to Islamabad, the U.S. Under Secretary of State Alan Larson said that the U.S. continues to be concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
No compromise on N-plan: Musharraf
2. India Nuclear Safety
India strongly rejected a Washington Post report that India might – under certain conditions – launch a preemptive strike against Pakistan’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the Indian Minister for State, Omar Abdullah, raised concerns about Pakistan’s first use of nuclear weapons against India. The Indian Department of Atomic Energy also beefed up security at its nuclear plants.
3. China and Pakistan
China reportedly has refused a U.S. request for a list of missile parts and missile-making technology that Beijing would stop exporting to Pakistan.
Afghanistan War and Implications
1. Afghanistan: Current Situation
Reports in Pakistani newspapers suggest that the Taliban has shown greater cohesion and resistance than some observers expected.
2. Afghanistan: Future Prospect
The Pakistani government once again supported the idea that any future government in Kabul should be broad based. Well-known columnists for Pakistani newspapers examine the complexities of setting up a new government in Kabul.
3. Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf wants the U.S to end its war before the start of Ramadan, the holy month for Muslims, which begins by mid November. Pakistani government officials, while estimating that the war in Afghanistan will cost the country about US$2.5 billion, have also suggested that foreign aid may be less than what is generally expected. A newspaper reports two cases of Anthrax attack in Karachi. There are also reports that 26 members of Pakistani groups which have been fighting along with Taliban have been killed. The influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan continues despite the closure of the border between the two countries. Author and columnist Shahid Burki suggest that Pakistan should seek longer-term relief and assistance in order to get the economy moving again.
4. India
India says that a friendly, stable government in Kabul is critical to its security. An Indian columnist wonders whether India has been sidelined in the new global situation after September 11.
5. Regional Issues
Military contingents from Turkey and Bangladesh could be leading a future international peace-keeping force, according to “informed sources” in India.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the present Taliban regime can have no role to play in a post-Taliban government..
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klabanov said that Russia was maintaining the “closest” interaction with India over the developments in Afghanistan
6. U.S. Role
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell played down the notion of a massive reconstruction program on the order of the Marshall Plan for Afghanistan.
Northern Alliance leaders suggested that they will keep their troops outside Kabul only if the United States ensures that ‘other groups’ do the same
7. General Assessments
Ayaz Amir considers the ramifications if the U.S.-led war fails to dislodge Taliban from Kabul.
Debate in the Islamic world between modernism and revivalism has become distorted in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.
Defense experts reportedly suggest that the US war against global terrorism threatens to trigger a new arms race in the Middle East and Asia.
Pakistan
1. Pakistan Domestic Situation
Numerous reports note the increasing tension between religious political parties and President Pervez Musharraf’s government.
A Dawn editorial argues that the current crisis should not be used to postpone scheduled national elections.
Irfan Hussian writes that conspiracy theories about the September 11 attacks are a way for the people of Muslim countries to avoid taking a hard look at the conditions in their societies.
2. Pakistan-India Relations
India and Pakistan have exchanged hostilecomments.
3. Pakistan-U.S. Relations
Various reports describe the U.S. economic support package for Pakistan.
India
1. India Domestic Situation
George Fernandes, after being forced to resign as a result of a corruption scandal, has returned as India’s Defence Secretary.
The Union Cabinet tonight approved the promulgation of the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance, 2001, which is expected to replace the infamous, but already lapsed, Terrorists and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act (TADA).
2. India-Pakistan Relations
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee told a news conference that he “feels as if there is no point in talking to Pakistan”. He also described Pakistan as an “untrustworthy neighbor” at a gathering of Sikh community. Responding to a question about recent statements by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, a spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs stated that India did not wish to enter into a “sterile debate” with Islamabad.
3. India-U.S. Relations
An Indian foreign ministry spokesperson ruled out the need for assistance from the United States in solving the Kashmir issue.
4. India-Russia Relations
India and Russia have discussed a deal for India to lease four supersonic reconnaissance aircraft under a contract that may be signed next month.
“India to acquire reconnaissance aircraft from Russia”
Kashmir
1. Internal Situation
Reports on continuing violence in Jummu and Kashmir.
2. India and Pakistan
Pakistan does not want the U.S. to equate the violence in Kashmir with terrorism.
Indian Home Minister LK Advani and Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes issued tough statements on Kashmir.
3. United States
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell urged both India and Pakistan to act with “enormous restraint” in spite of the tensions over Kashmir. Powell also stated that the Kashmir issue was “central” to Indo-Pakistan relations.