SANDNet Weekly Update, January 25, 2002

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CONTENTS
January 25, 2002
Volume 3, #4

Nuclear Issues

1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety
2. Related News and Analysis

Afghanistan War and Implications

1. Afghanistan: Current Situation
2. Afghanistan: Reconstruction
3. Humanitarian Crisis
4. Regional Developments
5. General Assessments

India-Pakistan Tensions

1. News
2. Analysis

Pakistan

1. Pakistan: Domestic Situation
2. U.S. – Pakistan Relations

India

1. India: Domestic Situation
2. China-India Relations

Kashmir

1. Internal Situation
2. India and Pakistan

Nuclear Issues

1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety
A team from Landau Network, an Italian Arms Control institution, recently visited Pakistan. Their report on the visit discusses, among other issues, security problems concerning Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and nuclear material.

2. Related News and Analysis
India tested a variant of Agni missile with a range of 700 km. The Pakistan government has termed the test as “prejudicial” to regional stability.

President General Pervez Musharraf has stated that Pakistan wants a denuclearised South Asia and is willing to sign a no-war pact with India. In response, the Indian government rejected the proposal stating that denuclearisation of South Asia alone would have “no meaning.”


Afghanistan War and Implications

1. Afghanistan: Current Situation
According to US officials, their special forces killed more than a dozen Islamic militants and captured 27 others after a fight in southern Afghanistan. Meanwhile, there were reports of fighting between various Afghan warlords in different parts of the country. Al Ahram, an Egyptian weekly, reported on deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf believes that Osama bin Laden is dead.
“Think Osama is dead: Musharraf”

2. Afghanistan: Reconstruction
Delegates from 61 countries and 21 international organizations attending an international conference in Tokyo, Japan, to help rebuild Afghanistan have pledged about four billion dollars in aid.

During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan’s interim Prime Minister Hamid Karzai held talks with Saudi King Fahd and Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz. Saudi Arabia has offered Afghanistan $20 million as a first installment of an emergency aid package.

A report in the Far Eastern Economic Review argues that “without a proper mechanism to establish security and manage development, the country could dissolve into well-funded anarchy rife with corruption and violence.” Journalist and author Ahmad Rashid examines some of the challenges of rebuilding Afghanistan.

3. Humanitarian Crisis
The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) is about to complete relocating refugees from Jalozai camp in northwest Pakistan to other sites. The living condition in the makeshift Jalozai camp has been deteriorating following the post September 11th refugee influx. According to UNHCR, over 6000 new Afghan refugees have been allowed to enter refugee camps in Pakistan.
“Jalozai camp to be vacated”
“6,000 new Afghan DPs arrive”

4. Regional Developments
According to a report in Asia Times, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s decision to allow the deployment of US troops is causing him his “biggest political headaches.” Another report in Asia Times suggests that Russian officials are becoming wary about America’s increasing influence in Central Asia. India has protested to the US and Britain over Pakistan’s airlifting of its nationals and Taliban fighters after they were cornered in Kunduz during the war in Afghanistan.

5. General Assessments
G. Parthasarathy’s essay in Frontline, an Indian magazine, argues that the US would regret its decision to seek the cooperation of Pakistani military establishment in the ‘war against terrorism’.

Azmi Bishara’s article in the Egyptian weekly Al Ahram argues that “it is important to open this discussion (on what is terrorism) at the global level, avoiding exaggerations that will discredit the overall narrative while substantiating it thoroughly.”


India-Pakistan Tensions

1. News
During his visit to Pakistan, the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested a two track approach to resolving India-Pakistan conflict that would consist of “a sustained and determined action against armed extremist groups and an equally sustained dialogue to resolve all differences.” Kofi Annan dropped his plans to visit New Delhi after the Indian government indicated that the “proposed dates are not convenient.” Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf believes that tensions between Pakistan and India would not translate into a war.”
“Withdraw troops from frontline, Annan tells India”
“Annan drops India visit”

The Frontline, an Indian magazine, published a short description of the 20 terrorists whose extradition from Pakistan India has demanded. Pakistan has also given India a list of people allegedly involved in terrorist activities in Pakistan demanding their extradition. India’s Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh has stated that India would return these alleged terrorists to Pakistan.
“Pakistan to seek extradition of its suspects”

Four unidentified armed men on motorcycles opened fire outside the American Center in Kolkata, India, killing five policemen and injuring 20 people. India’s Union Home Minister L. K. Advani claimed that Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) was responsible for the attack. The US government, however, has stated that it is not certain if the assault was targeted at its interests. Pakistan condemned the assault as an act of terror. According to a report by Sultan Shahin in Asia Times, under pressure from the US, India is moving away from holding Pakistan responsible for the assault.
“Advani sees ISI link to attack”

2. Analysis
According to a report in Asia Times, troop movements ordered by an Indian corps commander Kapil Vij brought India and Pakistan dangerously close to war. The corps commander was subsequently removed. The Indian government, however, has issued a statement that the removal of Lt. Gen. Kapil Vij was a routine matter.
“Corps commander replaced”

Writing for the Far Eastern Economic Review, Teresita C. Schaffer argues that “the U.S. now has both the leverage and the relationships to influence the course of events in a healthy direction in South Asia.”

A report in Asia Times examines the human and financial costs of war or a longer-term mobilization of forces by India and Pakistan.


Pakistan

1. Pakistan: Domestic Situation
In a public speech, Pakistan’s President General Pervez Musharraf reaffirmed his commitment to holding general in the country by October 2002. He also outlined objectives that are part of his idea of restoring the ‘true essence of democracy’ in Pakistan. Hafizur Rahman’s essay in the daily Dawn, Pakistan, examines the implications of joint electorates for religious minorities in the country.

Writing for Frontline, an Indian magazine, Aijaz Ahmad closely examines the choices faced by Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf.

2. U.S. – Pakistan Relations
During his visit to Pakistan, the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Robert S Mueller stated that the US wants to expand its cooperation with Pakistan “beyond counter-terrorism to include cyber-crimes, human trafficking and other crimes.”


India

1. India: Domestic Situation
A report in the daily Hindu, India, examines political maneuvering around the upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh.
“BJP faces uphill task in U.P.”

Harish Khare’s essay in the daily Hindu, India, argues that India “would soon be resembling Pakistan if the present inclination to concede a centrality to the armed forces remains unchecked.”
“A General and a Minister”

2. China-India Relations
A report in Asia Times examines Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji’s recent visit to India.


Kashmir

1. Internal Situation
South Asian newspapers carried various reports on protest and violence in Kashmir.

A report by Joanna Slater of the Far Eastern Economic Review describes daily life in Srinagar, Kashmir.

2. India and Pakistan
An essay in Asia Times argues that the renunciation of militancy by the All-Parties Hurriyet Conference (APHC) – an umbrella organization of 23 political parties in Kashmir – will help in finding a political solution to the Kashmir issue. A report in the daily Hindu, India, suggests that political parties in India believe that designating the current Line of Control dividing Indian and Pakistani sections of Kashmir as the international border is the only feasible solution to the Kashmir problem.
“It’s time to draw the line”


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