WORKSHOP PROGRAM: Third East Asia Energy Futures

28 January

Opening Remarks and Presentation of Meeting Goals and Schedule

BAU Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 1)

Alternative Energy Paths Discussion (Part 1)

8:30-9:15 Welcome tea and breakfast (Registration) – Megan Keever and Danna West

Opening Remarks and Presentation of Workshop Goals and Schedule

9:15-9:30 Opening Remarks – Peter Hayes

9:30-9:40 Presentation of Workshop Goals and Schedule – Masami Nakata and Megan Keever

BAU Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 1)

9:45-4:15 Presentation topics:

1.      The latest (official) energy outlook of each country (brief)

2.      Summary of the status of the LEAP modeling efforts including: current status of the data collection, collection methodology, key data sources and key data gaps, problems encountered in gathering data, concerns of the country team regarding data availability and quality, and other topics.

3.      BAU energy paths presentations:

BAU path design and assumptions — What were the central sources you used? What are the overall assumptions about demographics and economics in your country in the future? Do any of the assumptions have regional implications?

Reasonableness of BAU paths — are the assumptions you’ve made reasonable given recent trends in your country?

4.      “National” alternative paths (only descriptive level)


9:45-11:00 Oda Junichiro and Tatsujiro Suzuki


11:00-12:15 Guo Baolei, Yanjia Wang and Aling Zhang

12:15-13:00 LUNCH


13:00-14:15 Roman Matveev, Victor Kalashnikov, and Alexander Ognev

Republic of Korea

14:15-15:30  Ho-seok Kim and Eui-soon Shin

15:30-15:45 BREAK

Democratic People’s of Republic Korea

15:45-16:15 David Von Hippel

Alternative Energy Paths Discussion (Part 1):

16:15-17:15Preliminary Discussion for the Scenario Workshop

17:30 End of First Day

29 January

Regional Energy Scenario Workshop


–         Provide taste of scenario thinking

–        Question assumptions

–         Foster some sense of regional thinking

Facilitators : Anu Ponnamma (Global Business Network)

Napier Collyns (Global Business Network)

Jason Hunter (Nautilus Institute)

9:00 Welcome, Introduction to Scenario Planning

9:30 Focal Issue Presentation and Discussion

Briefly describe what a focal issue is: present the one developed.

Open for discussion/ clarification

10:15 Brainstorming Driving Forces

10:45 Critical Uncertainties

11:00 Break

11:10 Clustering Uncertainties/ Forming Axes

12:15 Lunch

12:45 Presenting Axes: Mixing and Matching to Create Sample Scenarios/ Matrices

13:45 Developing the Scenarios (two groups)


14:45 Implications & key take away for focal issue & the nations

16:00 Presentations: high level scenario overviews & key implications

16:30 Debrief

17:00 Close


30 January

BAU Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 2)

Alternative “National” Energy Paths (Part 2)

BAU Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 2)

9:00-10:00 California LEAP BAU path presentation Rebecca Ghanadan

10:00-11:00 Other BAU issues and concerns for discussion, and presentation of issues to think about as we plan and organize future EAEF activities

11:00-11:15 Break

11:15-12:15 Nuclear power and nuclear waste issues (Presentations and Panel discussion)

Yajia Wang, Woo-Jin Chang, Victor Kalashnikov, and Peter Hayes

12:15-13:15 Lunch

Alternative “National” Energy Paths (Part 2)

13:15-15:00 Regional groups’ presentations (15-30 min/group)

Japanese Energy Scenarios Akihiro Ikeda and Rie Kinoshita

California LEAP Alternative Path  Rebecca Ghanadan

China Yanjia Wang and Guo Baolei

South Korea Eui-soon Shin and Ho-seok Kim

Far East Russia Roman Matveev and Victor Kalashnikov

15:00-15:15 Break

15:15-16:00 Discussion of national alternative paths directions by the EAEF Group as a whole (Coordinated by Nautilus)

16:00-17:30 Discussion about the next phase of the EAEF project

We will plan additional and ongoing EAEF activities, including continuing discussions of the EAEF group might integrate their national work to address regional issues in a meaningful way.

17:30 End of Third Day

31 January

Technical Discussion and Training (Coordinated by David Von Hippel)


1 February

Technical Discussion and Training (Continued)


17:00 Closing Peter Hayes