3 May 2012
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change adaptation, the DPRK, and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
- DETERRENCE: NWFZs and extended nuclear deterrence- squaring the circle
- DPRK: Allies to form nuclear attack contingency plan
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate variability and change in the Himalayas: Community perceptions and responses
- ENERGY SECURITY: Japan finding it’s not so easy to go nuclear free
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Little results so far from Obama’s ‘reset’ with Russia, ‘pivot’ to Asia as counter to China
- AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Army should be careful with its aim: Its amphibious-power ambitions do not make strategic sense
DETERRENCE: NWFZs and extended nuclear deterrence- squaring the circle, Jayantha Dhanapala, NAPSNet Special Report (1 May 2012)
There can be no transitional grey period, in which the DPRK remains nuclear armed, justifying continued US nuclear deterrence or where some NWS (e.g. the US) retain extended deterrence for Japan and ROK if China does not ratify the Protocols and poses a threat to these allies of the US. Therefore, attempts to tailor the NWFZ proposed to particular interests of states and some nuclear weapon states (NWS) would be counter-productive.
- Comprehensive study of the question of nuclear-weapon-free zones in all its aspects, Special report of the Conference of the Committee on Disarmament, UN Doc. A/10027/Add. 1, New York (1975) [PDF, 3.9MB]
- Nuclear illusions: Argentina and Brazil, John Redick, Stimson Center, Occasional Paper 24 (1995) [PDF, 0.4MB]
- The Latin American Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone, Alfonso Garcia Robles, Stanley Foundation, Occasional Paper 19 (May 1979) [PDF, 13.4MB]
Want a more in-depth discussion of this week’s deterrence section and how it relates to current issues in the DPRK? See this week’s blog from our deterrence expert, Peter Hayes:
“It is sobering that a diplomat of Dhanapala’s experience avers that a NWFZ in Northeast Asia must be born complete and wholly free of nuclear threat, or not at all…”
DPRK: Allies to form nuclear attack contingency plan, Choi He-Suk, The Korea Herald (29 April 2012)
For the first time, ROK and U.S. militaries will develop operational scenarios for possible nuclear attacks. Both sides agreed to cooperate on research in cyber and space domains and to hold seminars for high-level decision makers. Nautilus recently assessed North Korea’s operational nuclear capability as severely constrained. China’s Vice Foreign Minister said, “peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia is China’s national interest.”
- Unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army: A realistic assessment of North Korea’s operational nuclear capability, Peter Hayes and Scott Bruce, Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability (22 September 2011)
- China passes subtle warning to North Korea on its upcoming nuclear test, Guo Fang, Ran Li Yong, Li Zhen Zhao Mao Bing, Wei Hui, Liu Yupeng, Global Times Military Review (26 April 2012) [Chinese language]
- South Korea, U.S. will work to meet North Korea nuclear threat, Han Sangnim, Bloomberg. (27 April 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate variability and change in the Himalayas: Community perceptions and responses, Mirjam Macchi et al., International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal (2011) [PDF, 3.12 MB]
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) investigates how climate and socioeconomic change is affecting mountain people’s livelihoods, what makes them vulnerable, and how they are coping with and adapting to change. It conducts a community-based vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment in four different areas of India, Nepal and Bhutan.
- Framework for community-based climate vulnerability and capacity assessment in mountain areas, Mirjam Macchi, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal (2011) [PDF, 611 KB]
- Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets, Department for International Development – DFID, UK (1999)
ENERGY SECURITY: Japan finding it’s not so easy to go nuclear free, Ezra Klein, Washington Post (30 April 2012)
First oil, then nuclear (some 25 years before and after 1975, respectively) changed Japan’s energy mix – in particular, for power generation – at a pace unprecedented for any large country save France. Now its over-nuclearization is extracting additional costs of adjustment to Fukushima, adding to the world oil price pressures and nervousness about Kyoto Protocol targets. It will be a hot summer as domestic political wars also heat up.
- Japan needs nuclear, says World Economic Forum, World Nuclear News (24 April 2012)
- Japan environmental plan includes controversial greenhouse-gas target, Ananyo Bhattacharya, Nature News Blog (27 April 2012)
- Election-watch: Hashimoto blasts Noda cabinet on nuke restarts, Mitsuru Obe (6 April 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Little results so far from Obama’s ‘reset’ with Russia, ‘pivot’ to Asia as counter to China, Associated Press (28 April 2012)
The US’s Pacific shift has seen few real results, with no resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue and lack of cooperation with China and Russia on international issues. The US relationship with other Pacific partners has been strengthened, however, with renewed military commitments from the Philippines to Japan. The ROK and Japan are showing signs of increased military cooperation in response to a perceived growing China and DPRK threat.
- Obama, Japan’s Noda talk defense amid US-China standoff, Chicago Tribune (30 April 2012)
- US vows to assist Philippine navy, not to interfere in South China Sea dispute, Xinhua (2 May 2012)
- Can Japan, South Korea connect?, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, The Diplomat (5 April 2012)
AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Army should be careful with its aim: Its amphibious-power ambitions do not make strategic sense, Hugh White, Sydney Morning Herald (1 May 2012)
Australia has to decide what it could and should do to support its strategic interests in Asia. The army wants the leading role. The idea is to transform itself into a primarily amphibious force. But Australian amphibious forces would be vulnerable in a major war. Even if it doubled in size, the army could not put more than a few thousand troops ashore anywhere in Asia. Meanwhile, we also need to reconsider how to defend this island continent.
- All three armed forces vital, Geoffrey Barker, AFR (16 April 2012)
- Plans afoot for Australian troops to withdraw from Solomon Islands, AAP (26 April 2012)
- Australia in Solomon Islands, Forces Abroad Briefing Books, Nautilus Institute
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Yi Kiho, Dyana Mardon
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter