Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – April 3 2014

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – April 3 2014", NAPSNet Weekly Report, April 03, 2014,

Photo Source: ausairpower.netDETERRENCE: Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet, Options for the Current Fleet and Next-Generation Aircraft, Christopher  Mouton et al,  RAND MG-1238-AF, 2013.

US global airlift capacity is unique and underlies US power projection, especially strategic and tactical bombers.  US allies have begun to supply refueling to US aircraft.  All US options to recapitalize its aging airlift fleet pose risks that require hedging. [PDF, 0.7MB]

Photo Source: 朴槿惠与安倍DPRK: North Korea Urged U.S. Changes Citing Talks with South, Sangwon Yoon, Boomberg. (24 March 2014)

North Korea released several statements reaffirming the importance of their nuclear weapons as a treasured sword (보검/宝剑) and an important part of the Worker’s Party of Korea Strategic line, but the formulation omitted use of “non-negotiable”. There was a short term, tactical hiccup represented by North Korea pre-notifying South Korea of an impending artillery firing exercise. The pre-notification likely indicates a DPRKK desire to manage tensions in that particular exchange.  However, it may have also been an event to test South Korean reaction time – an unidentified drone was captured in South Korea.

Photo Source: Korea HeraldGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Park Unveils Proposals to N. Korea to Lay Groundwork for Unification, Chang Jae-soon, Yonhap News (29 March 2014)

ROK President Park laid out a proposal for unification with the DPRK last week, now known as the Dresden Doctrine, based on increased long-term exchange and cooperation on the peninsula. The plan calls for increased humanitarian aid projects, expanded economic cooperation including in partnership with China, and increased cultural exchanges. While the DPRK has yet to issue an official response, articles have so far called it “bits of useless junk”.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Integrating Local Hybrid Knowledge and State Support for Climate Change Adaptation in the Asian Highlands, Jianchu Xu & R. Edward Grumbine, Climatic Change, Springer (2 March 2014)

In the Asian Highlands, an integrated approach that blends strategies to secure more resource access for local people could pave pathways toward successful climate adaptation, more inclusive governance, and greater state stability. To accomplish this, leaders would have to reframe state-led decisions as more ecological, efficient, and equitable means of managing risks in an increasingly uncertain world.

Photo Source: BBC.comENERGY SECURITY: Climate Impacts ‘Overwhelming’ – UN, Matt McGrath, BBC News, 31 March 2014

Drums roll again. Periodic song-and-dance – “See what we know.” “We know more than we did before.” “The worst is yet to come.” “The cost of inaction is compounding.” Can be played every five or fifteen minutes or decades. Modelers model what they want to believe. And then sit around and agree to agree. Except when they don’t. Someone earns the epithet “fringe”. Do-anythingism in the name of science will continue.

Photo Source: PEACE AND SECURITY: Edward Snowden Documents Show Malaysia is an Australia-US intelligence Target, Philip Dorling, Sydney Morning Herald (30 March 2014)

Were the Australian-coordinated multilateral search for Malaysian airline MH370 and Crimea-triggered Chinese power plays in the South China Sea not so serious, it could be a Monty Python version of alliance relations. Spiegel revelations that US and its electronic intelligence allies target leaders of Malaysia – and of Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan – do not augur well for trust in the allies and partners of the Pacific pivot.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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