Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – April 10 2014

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – April 10 2014", NAPSNet Weekly Report, April 08, 2014,

dots copyDETERRENCE: Iran’s Nuclear Propensity: the Probability of Nuclear Use, Thanos Dokos, EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, Non-Proliferation Paper 38, March 2014

Although improbable, miscalculation, accidental detonation or launch, or desperation may lead to nuclear next-use in the Middle East and present a combined, cumulative risk. Iranian nuclear arms may intensify regional instability, multiply nuclear decision-makers, and complicate strategic calculations. [PDF, 0.9MB]

Kim at KPA swearing inDPRK: DPRK People Enraged at Park Guen Hye’s Behaviors, North Korea, Rodong Sinmun, April 7, 2014

North Korean reactions to President Park Geun-hye’s “Dresden speech” have been negative and personal, but relatively mild – and mostly unofficial.  North Korea is only comfortable with proposals tied to the 15 June 2000 agreement signed between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il. North Korea is preparing for its most important holiday, “The Day of the Sun” to celebrate Kim Il-sung’s birthday.  In addition, the 13th Supreme People’s Assembly will meet for the first time on 9 April.  They usually confirm previous appointments but can mend the constitution and laws as well as exercise other bureaucratic powers necessary to implement Kim Jong-un’s decisions. North Korea pushes the U.S. and Japan closer together.  China issued a rare, pre-emptive demarche to put North Korea on notice not to test.  China appears concerned that a test will have negative market implications.

Photo Souce: China Daily

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: China Warns Local Governments on Land Misuse, Esther Fung, Wall Street Journal (9 April 2014)

China’s land ministry criticized 6 local governments for misuse of farmland, questionable land seizures and poor compensation, issues that have led to social unrest. Wukan village leaders who led protests against the local government in 2011 sparked by land seizures, however, now accuse authorities of intimidation and have yet to receive land back. Protesters in another provincial city want to stop plans for a large-scale industrial plant.

climate-change-ice-bearCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: A Qualitative Examination of the Health Workforce Needs during Climate Change Disaster Response in Pacific Island Countries, Michele Rumsey et al., Human Resources for Health, vol. 12, no. 9, 12 February 2014, (153 KB, PDF)

For an adaptive policy environment and effective implementation of plans, the health sector requires a suite of governance-related functions, including clear mandates, effective decision-making and response to community-identified strengths. A greater understanding of governance in the health-care context can provide opportunities to strengthen health sector policy and response action to the effects of climate change.

31climate-superJumboENERGY SECURITY: Panel’s Warning on Climate Risk: Worst is Yet to Come, Justin Gillis, New York Times (31 March 2014)

A scientist proclaims, “Now we are at the point where there is so much information, so much evidence, that we can no longer plead ignorance.” A film-maker cautions, from Pearl Harbor experience, “We see what we are prepared to see. The problem was not an absence of evidence… The problem was how to interpret it, how to see it.”

Image for 10 April 2014CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Call Climate Change What it is: Violence, Rebecca Solnit, The Guardian, April 7 2014

“The message is that ordinary people will behave badly in an era of intensified climate change. All this makes sense, unless you go back to the premise and note that climate change is itself violence. Extreme, horrific, longterm, widespread violence…Climate change is global-scale violence, against places and species as well as against human beings. Once we call it by name, we can start having a real conversation about our priorities and values.”

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (April 2014)

Summary for Policymakers

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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