Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 20 March 2014

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 20 March 2014", NAPSNet Weekly Report, March 19, 2014,

DETERRENCE: The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force, Lauren Caston et al, RAND, 2014

With US ICBMs at 420 and 4 used per year in tests,  and allies demanding credible extended deterrence against China, DPRK, and Iran, this study concludes that “continu[ing] to reduce force sizes may compound the problem of balancing these increasingly complex interactions and relationships. The ICBM may have to evolve to support these future situations.”

Screen Shot 2014-03-20 at 8.59.50 PMDPRK: Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Talks, Office of the Secretary of Defense (2014) [PDF, 132 KB]

U.S. Department of Defense released a report on DPRK.  The importance is that North Korea’s actions are drawing increased DOD analytical efforts – a light North Korea likely does not want shining on them.  North Korea’s elections are another indicator that Kim is effectively in control.  It was never a question that he would win, but since elections also operate like a de facto census, North Korea, in effect accounted for the whereabouts of all their citizens. They are also confident enough to talk with the South about Kaesong Industrial Zone.

nn20131009a9a-870x543GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: South Korea-U.S.-Japan Summit Highly Likely: Sources, Yonhap News (19 March 2014)

Following Japan’s decision not to revise its 1993 apology to ‘comfort women’, Korea is indicating its openness to a trilateral summit with the US and Japan on the sidelines of the upcoming Nuclear Security Summit. This would be the first meeting between the leaders of Japan and ROK in nearly two years. Japan is seeking working-level talks between the US, China and ROK in July to discuss countering nuclear terrorism.

pdpf92mymp3pp44my5c1s8gt.wpengine.netdna-cdnCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: The Future of the Winter Olympics in a Warmer World, University of Waterloo and MCI Management Center, Canada (2014)

Today the Olympic Winter Games is truly a global cultural event. However, the cultural legacy of these Winter Games is increasingly at risk due to the climate change. Internationally renowned Olympic sites, such as Squaw Valley (USA), Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany), Vancouver (Canada) and Sochi (Russia) would no longer have climates suitable to reliably host the Games by the middle of the 21st century.

Mohenjo-daroENERGY SECURITY: Revealed: How Climate Change Ended World’s First Great Civilizations, David Keys, Independent (3 March 2014)

That civilizations should develop and decline or migrate, with or without climate change and resource patterns, is not surprising. Civilizations have depended on water, and the Harappan ones did not use fossil fuels that we know of. Today’s Iran, or California, also suffers from water scarcities, and have their power systems closely tied in with water and fossil fuels. GHG cap-and-trade system will make California’s power situation worse.

Screen Shot 2014-03-20 at 8.31.29 PMAUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Maneuvers Make Waves but in Truth Chinese Navy is a Paper Tiger, Paul Dibb, The Australian (7 March 2014)

While accepting its US alliance, Chinese strategists see a critical Australian role in the AirSea Battle concept “will be a step too far”. Within that alliance, the Australian army head sees the continental “Defense of Australia” doctrine as a “fantasy” to be replaced by an amphibious power projection capacity. Yet the DOA’s architect sees “predictable over-reaction” to Chinese anti-access capacities, beyond which China will be a hobbled land power.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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