Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 15 May 2014

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 15 May 2014", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 15, 2014, J. On-Fat Wong, Security Requirements in Northeast Asia, dissertation, University of Wisconsin, 1982

In 1982, Wong posited that by 1990, every state in Northeast Asia had gone nuclear.  Given their vulnerability, “This condition of pre-emptive instability suggests that among the small powers, “mutual vulnerability” or “mutual probable destruction” is a much more appropriate description of their strategic relationship than “mutual assured destruction.”” [PDF, 19.9MB]

news.ifeng.comDPRK: North Korea Renews Threat of Nuclear Test, Jack Kim, Mark Felanthal, Reuters News Agency, 10 May 2014

North Korea reiterated threats to conduct a new type of nuclear test.  It is helpful that they have not yet done so, even though they recently conducted ICBM rocket engine tests.  The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) maintains around 280 monitors ready to detect any nuclear testing – North Korean or otherwise.  Sustained DPRK threats and other issues are forcing Japanese leaders to change their thoughts on “collective self-defense”.  Although the move is aimed at North Korea, China views it as an extremely negative complication of their security situation.

pbs.twimg.comGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Do Chinese NIMBY Protests Actually Work?, Alexa Olesen, Foreign Policy, 13 May 2014

Chinese citizens have increasingly demonstrated against proposals that pose negative environmental impacts to communities, resulting in delays of projects. However, whether these protests actually succeed in preventing proposals may be questioned, as disputed factories are simply moved to another community. Protestors in Hangzhou have forced the government to halt plans for a waste incinerator, but many question the government’s sincerity.

zastavki.comCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Natural Disasters and a Warming Climate: Understanding the Cumulative Financial Impacts on Victoria, Tom Delbridge and Cam Walker, Friends of the Earth, Melbourne, Australia, 2014 [1.08 MB, PDF]

Despite recent various warm weather anomalies, including the latest warm winter and the abnormally early fire events in New South Wales, certain commentators flatly refuse to acknowledge or even discuss the impact that a warming climate might be having on the frequency and severity of natural disasters. We are not suggesting that the warming climate started the catastrophic fire events that unfolded in October 2013, but to ignore a discussion regarding the influence of background warming is to be blind to the potential truth.

201309221457304679_SENERGY SECURITY: US and China Lift Climate Change Hopes with New Phase of Talks, Pilita Clark, Financial Times, 27 April 2014

Another diplomatic dance begins. It is not romance, but there will be ample show of wooing, pleas, pleasing, demanding and resisting, enticements and threats. An anachronism of the Cold War, pre-globalization era has trapped governments so that crises staring in the face are ignored, and parliamentary hearings can be used to manufacture fictitious ones – the Great Lime Shortage or Anthropogenic Global Warming. PEACE AND SECURITY: China’s Dismaying New Claims in the South China Sea, Armed Forces Chief Moeldoko, Wall Street Journal, 25 April 2014

Two Indonesian shifts with portents for the pivot? At home, the race for president is closer than expected: populist Joko Widodo paired with billionaire culture of impunity representative Abdurizal Bakrie, against atrocity-suspect Prabowo Subianto backed by a brace of Islamic parties. At sea, “dismayed” military chief Moeldoko bolted from neutrality on nine-dash line maps: China’s “behavior in the South China Sea will define broader perceptions of its intentions.”

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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