Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 13 September 2012

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Roger Cavazos – DPRK Contributor America, time for some self-introspection about AirSea Battle (ASB)/ pivot / rebalance.  We never left Asia, but there were clear signs our attention …, "Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 13 September 2012", NAPSNet Weekly Report, September 12, 2012,


See this week’s blog: Clarity – a Spiral Slower, from our DPRK contributor, Roger Cavazos

DETERRENCE:  Time to upgrade China’s nuclear capabilities, Global Times, in People’s Daily Online, (7 September 2012)

US intelligence agencies have monitored 3 strategic missile tests by China’s Second Artillery Corps (SAC) since late July, including the road-mobile MIRVed DF-41. “China has a stronger and more credible nuclear deterrence. This is the cornerstone of China’s ability to safeguard its national security within a complex international environment.

DPRK: N Korea to let enterprises retain 70% of profits,  Koichiro Ishida, Asahi Shimbun (4 September 2012)

Many are speculating DPRK is reforming their economy.  However, these seem to be incremental changes at the margins and possibly only legitimize what is actually happening anyway to prevent an appearance of flouting laws. Several of these trends are consistent with a limited opening, but wholesale reform is unlikely, especially since there are so many different types of sanctions on the economy. These developments bear continued revisiting.

Source: U.S. Navy/Chief Photographer's Mate Todd P. CichonowiczBlog: Clarity – a Spiral Slower

by Roger Cavazos – DPRK Contributor America, time for some self-introspection about AirSea Battle (ASB)/ pivot / rebalance.  We never left Asia, but there were clear signs our attention …

ENERGY SECURITY: A presidential race low on energy, Editorial, Washington Post (10 September 2012)

Energy insecurities of the US affect the world. The black candidate in the coming presidential election has had a 40+page blueprint for over a year now. A couple of weeks ago, the white candidate produced a white paper half as long, half of it excerpts from news items, under headings “Did you know?” – as if he alone knows and is dispensing consultant advice for free. Meanwhile, there are worries about a strike on Iran, release from petroleum reserves of IEA countries, and their effects on the oil markets.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Does China’s next leader have a soft spot for Tibet? Reuters (1 September 2012)

The Dalai Lama is hopeful that Tibet’s relationship with China will improve following this year’s leadership transition in Beijing, although China denies this. Xi Jinping, expected to take over the top leadership role, may take a softer approach because his father, a former vice-minister, had a positive rapport with the Dalai Lama. Hong Kong protesters are engaged in a hunger strike against new mandatory school textbooks containing “pro-mainland-Chinese propaganda”.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change and violent conflict, Jürgen Scheffran et al., Science, vol. 336 (18 May 2012) [342 KB, PDF]

Current debates over the relationship between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena. Since publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the debate on the security implications of climate change has intensified. Research in this area has made progress but remains controversial.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: The planetary water drama: dual task of feeding humanity and curbing climate change, J. Rockstrom et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, (2012) (subscription required)

Consumptive water use involved in the dual task would both transgress the planetary boundary range for global consumptive freshwater use and exacerbate already severe river depletion, causing societal problems related to water shortage and water allocation. Strategies to rely on sequestration of CO2 as a mitigation strategy must recognize the high freshwater costs involved, implying that the key mitigation strategy must be to reduce emissions.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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