- DETERRENCE: Time to upgrade China’s nuclear capabilities
- DPRK: N Korea to let enterprises retain 70% of profits
- ENERGY SECURITY: A presidential race low on energy
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Does China’s next leader have a soft spot for Tibet?
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change and violent conflict
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: The planetary water drama: dual task of feeding humanity and curbing climate change
See this week’s blog: Clarity – a Spiral Slower, from our DPRK contributor, Roger Cavazos
DETERRENCE: Time to upgrade China’s nuclear capabilities, Global Times, in People’s Daily Online, (7 September 2012)
US intelligence agencies have monitored 3 strategic missile tests by China’s Second Artillery Corps (SAC) since late July, including the road-mobile MIRVed DF-41. “China has a stronger and more credible nuclear deterrence. This is the cornerstone of China’s ability to safeguard its national security within a complex international environment.
- China ‘Tests New Long-Range Missile, Chosun Ilbo (23 August 2012) citing: China testsMIRV-capable DF-41 ICBM, Robert Foster, Jane’s Defence Weekly (17 August 2012) [PDF, 0.2 MB, subscription]
- China’s deterrence paradox, explaining China’s minimal deterrence strategy, Jonathan Holsag, Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies (4 January 2012) [PDF, 0.3MB]
- Japan opposes extending S.Korea’s missile range, Chosun Ilbo (September 2012)
DPRK: N Korea to let enterprises retain 70% of profits, Koichiro Ishida, Asahi Shimbun (4 September 2012)
Many are speculating DPRK is reforming their economy. However, these seem to be incremental changes at the margins and possibly only legitimize what is actually happening anyway to prevent an appearance of flouting laws. Several of these trends are consistent with a limited opening, but wholesale reform is unlikely, especially since there are so many different types of sanctions on the economy. These developments bear continued revisiting.
- Rason international trade fair 2012 collection, Northkorea Econ Watch (1 September 2012)
- The “June 28 directive” and July 26 “Let us effect Kim Jong-il’s patriotism…”: not yet time to break out the soju, Haggard, Stephan, Marcus Noland, and Jaesung Ryu, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Witness to Transformation (6 August 2012)
- Policy Forum 11-38: North Korea’s digital transformation: implications for North Korea policy, Peter Hayes, Scott Bruce and Dyana Mardon, Nautilus Institute (8 November 2011)
by Roger Cavazos – DPRK Contributor America, time for some self-introspection about AirSea Battle (ASB)/ pivot / rebalance. We never left Asia, but there were clear signs our attention …
ENERGY SECURITY: A presidential race low on energy, Editorial, Washington Post (10 September 2012)
Energy insecurities of the US affect the world. The black candidate in the coming presidential election has had a 40+page blueprint for over a year now. A couple of weeks ago, the white candidate produced a white paper half as long, half of it excerpts from news items, under headings “Did you know?” – as if he alone knows and is dispensing consultant advice for free. Meanwhile, there are worries about a strike on Iran, release from petroleum reserves of IEA countries, and their effects on the oil markets.
- Romney’s energy plan: ‘a document not worth serious analysis’? Joseph Romm, The Energy Collective Blog (31 August 2012)
- Energy innovation under Romney and Obama, Kevin Bullis, Technology Review (6 September 2012)
- Europe must wean IEA from dependence on US, Matthew Hulbert, European Energy Review (6 September 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Does China’s next leader have a soft spot for Tibet? Reuters (1 September 2012)
The Dalai Lama is hopeful that Tibet’s relationship with China will improve following this year’s leadership transition in Beijing, although China denies this. Xi Jinping, expected to take over the top leadership role, may take a softer approach because his father, a former vice-minister, had a positive rapport with the Dalai Lama. Hong Kong protesters are engaged in a hunger strike against new mandatory school textbooks containing “pro-mainland-Chinese propaganda”.
- No breakthrough in talks until Dalai Lama changes stand: China, KJM Varma, Tibet Sun (31 August 2012)
- Hong Kong school year starts with hunger strikes, Alexis Lai, CNN (4 September 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change and violent conflict, Jürgen Scheffran et al., Science, vol. 336 (18 May 2012) [342 KB, PDF]
Current debates over the relationship between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena. Since publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the debate on the security implications of climate change has intensified. Research in this area has made progress but remains controversial.
- Environmental changes and violent conflict, Thomas Bernauer, Tobias Bohmelt and Vally Koubi, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 7, pp. 1-8 (2012) [343 KB, PDF]
- Climate change, human security and violent conflict: challenges for societal stability, J. Scheffran et al., vol. 8, pp. 1-868, Springer (2012) [subscription required]
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: The planetary water drama: dual task of feeding humanity and curbing climate change, J. Rockstrom et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, (2012) (subscription required)
Consumptive water use involved in the dual task would both transgress the planetary boundary range for global consumptive freshwater use and exacerbate already severe river depletion, causing societal problems related to water shortage and water allocation. Strategies to rely on sequestration of CO2 as a mitigation strategy must recognize the high freshwater costs involved, implying that the key mitigation strategy must be to reduce emissions.
- When it rains, it pours: global warming and the increase in extreme precipitation from 1948 to 2011, Travis Madsen, and Nathan Willcox, Environment America Research & Policy Center (Summer 2012)
- Crops in India wilt in a weak monsoon season, Vikas Bajaj, New York Times (4 September 2012
- Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon, Andrew G. Turner and H. Annamalai, Nature Climate Change, vol. 2, pp. 587–595 (2012) (subscription required)
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
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