Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 13 March 2014

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 13 March 2014", NAPSNet Weekly Report, March 13, 2014,

Image source: kyivpost.comDETERRENCE: Should Ukraine Have Gotten Rid of Its Cold War Nukes?, Elaine Grossman, Global Security Newswire, March 3, 2014

In 1994, Ukraine sent 4,500 former Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia and joined the NPT.  Russia, the US, and UK, guaranteed Ukraine that they would respect its sovereignty, and refrain from threat or use of force against Ukraine.  Many Ukrainians now have “nuclear nolstagia.” A proposed Eastern European Nuclear Weapons Free Zone is dead.

Image Source: North-South Reunion of Separated Families, Relatives Held, (North) Korea Central News Agency. (22 Feb 2014)

North Korea conducted family reunions despite ongoing wargames.  North Korea reported a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak.  The announcement was a little late, but may be an indicator of North Korea being willing to discuss issues.  South Korea – which recently simulated reacting to FMD outbreak – offered to help deal with the situation.  North Korea is also reaching out to a U.S. vulcanlogist to research the volcano which North Korea considers the birthplace of the Korean race.  That volcano, Mount Paektu, sits on the border between North Korea and China.  The program also involves bringing North Korean scientists to England to study abroad.

Source: Buddhika Weerasinghe/ Getty Images

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Fukushima Anniversary: Japan Remembers, D. Parvaz, Al Jazeera (11 March 2013)

Three years after the tsunami and nuclear accident in Fukushima, thousands of residents remain displaced with few signs that the government is taking necessary steps to make theselivable again. Prosecutors have dropped charges against government officials and TEPCO executives stemming from the nuclear crisis. The government is expected to push harder for a restart of nuclear power following last month’s mayoral elections in Tokyo.

Image source: CHANGE ADAPTATION: Fourth Annual Survey of Australian Attitudes to Climate Change: Interim Report, Leviston, Z., Price, J., Malkin, S., & McCrea, R., Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO: Perth, Australia (January 2014) [1.37 MB, PDF]

Effective action on adapting to climate change needs to be based on current and reliable information about what people think about climate change. A CSIRO-Australia project is undertaking systematic research surveys (2010-2013) to better address public perceptions and understandings of climate change. The latest survey carried out in 2013 finds that most people agree that climate change is happening, but they remain divided about the role played by human activity.

Image Source: nbcnews.comENERGY SECURITY: Climate Change: Evidence & Causes, An overview from the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, February 2014

The Royal Society and the US NAS start, “Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time”. Just one of the many for G-20s, Davos, and COPs. Also, “Scientists know that recent climate change is largely caused by human activities” (without quantifying) and “It is now more certain than ever.. that humans are changing the earth’s climate” (repeated every few years).

Image Source: Earthdata.nasa.govCLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Billions Needed to Fund Deforestation Prevention Plan: Report, Reuters (4 February 2014)

Maladaptation security warning. Poorly conceived REDD+ schemes for rich countries seeking to reduce their carbon debt by paying poorer countries to not destroy rainforest carbon sinks face well-known problems including indigenous dispossession, corruption, and baseline metrics. But there is a huge deficit between willingness to pay, and what is needed. Meanwhile, Indonesia burns, and the government is shocked, shocked. Neighbouring Singapore plans corporate fines.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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