Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 11 October 2012

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Yi Kiho – Governance and Civil Society Contributor Candidates for the next president and prime ministerial elections in South Korea and Japan were determined during the past two weeks…, "Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 11 October 2012", NAPSNet Weekly Report, October 11, 2012, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-11-october-2012/

CONTENTS

See this week’s blog: China to the left, Japan to the right, and a silent Korea , from our Governance and Civil Society contributor, Yi Kiho.

DETERRENCE: Teikovo division gets full arsenal of new missile systems, RIA Novosti (20 September 2012)

Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces Teikovo missile division in central Russia deployed advanced Topol-M and Yars mobile ballistic missile systems.  The Yars missile system has the multiple-warhead RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile.  By 2016, Novosibirsk division (in Siberia) will receive the advanced mobile Yars systems.

DPRK: North Korea says its missile can reach US,  The Guardian (UK) (9 October 2012)

North Korea’s reaction to a US-South Korean agreement to extend missile ranges has been unusually non-kinetic; consisting of statements.  Kim Kyong-hui, aunt to Kim Jong-Un, was reportedly in a Singapore hospital, but has returned to Pyongyang.  Her health is of particular concern since she is a key member of the power elite and her death would likely negatively affect internecine North Korea elite politics.

ENERGY SECURITY: USA: are natural gas and liberalised energy markets challenging nuclear’s future? Elisabeth Jeffries, Nuclear Energy Insider (3 October 2012)

A US observer says, “Existing nuclear is barely competitive and new nuclear is not competitive at all. Part of the US is on a merchant [liberalised] market, in which companies make competitive bids at the lower cost possible.” India’s nuclear establishment still keeps reciting the mantra TINA – There Is No Alternative. Even as all others have found alternatives. Overthrow of the atomullahas is long overdue; they have done nothing but waste people’s money and put their futures at risk.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Nuclear-talk envoys in ‘casual meeting’, United Press International (28 September 2012)

Signs are emerging that ties between the two Koreas may start improving, with “casual” meetings held between deputies of the members of the Six Party Talks in China. Civic groups in Seoul called for the implementation of the October 4 Joint Declaration and a DPRK website wrote that the Declaration could create a “sea of peace.” ROK presidential candidates on both sides have also called for greater engagement with the DPRK.

Blog: China to the left, Japan to the right, and a silent Korea

by Yi Kiho – Governance and Civil Society Contributor Candidates for the next president and prime ministerial elections in South Korea and Japan were determined during the past two weeks…

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Adapting climate change – Is the UK preparing for flooding and water scarcity? Adaptation sub-committee progress report 2012, Committee on Climate Change-UK (2012) [2.22 MB, PDF]

Climate change could increase the number of properties in England with a significant chance of flooding from rivers or the sea: from 330,000 now to between 630,000 and 1.2 million by the 2080s. The annual expected costs of flooding could increase from £1 billion now to between £1.8 billion and £5.6 billion (present day prices) over the same time period. These estimates assume no further action to prepare, no population growth and no change in the property stock.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change and energy security as military issues, Jeffrey Mazo, Security and responsibility in a multipolar world, IX Conference of Forte de Copacabana, International security – a European-South American dialogue (2012)

Rather than acting as a ‘threat multiplier’, climate change may be characterised as shifting ‘the tipping point at which conflict occurs’. The mix of missions for armed forces will change within the time horizon of force planning and acquisition programmes. Disagreements stem less from differences in method than from assumptions with regard to uncertainties. Policymakers have to weigh these assessments against the costs of taking preventive action.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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