Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 4 June 2015

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 4 June 2015", NAPSNet Weekly Report, June 04, 2015,

Deterrence imageDETERRENCE: Prompt global strike: China and the spear, Lora Saalman, The Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (April 2014) [PDF, 0.4MB]

The PLA exhibits combat weaknesses in land, air, maritime, space, and electromagnetic domains. It also faces difficulties mastering, training for, and integrating new and complex weapons. To overcome these deficits, and to counter the risk that the US may achieve pre-emptive capability against its nuclear forces, China may try to develop new, advanced long, range precision-guided weapons that target weak links, especially ISR critical to US weaponry. Although re-affirmed in its latest Defense White Paper, China’s No First Use policy is not immutable.

north-korea-pyongyang-airport-kim-jong-un-1DPRK: N. Korea mum on fresh U.S. dialogue offer: sources, Chang Jae-soon, Yonhap News Agency (1June 2015)

North Korea’s spate of executions (nominally ordered by Kim Jong-un) should be understood in the context of systemic and internal weaknesses – not strengths. Moreover, until North Korea resolves their internal dialectic conflicts they will generally not respond to external stimuli and when they do, they will only react to the domestic effects of the external stimuli. However, the leadership sees benefits from engaging in selected health activities which might threaten internal stability and selected cultural events which strengthen North Korea’s evolving metanarratives.

GovernanceGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: With rural Japan shrinking and aging, a small town seeks to stem the trend, Anna Fifield, Washington Post (26 May 2015)

With Japan’s rural population declining and communities disappearing, a small village is looking to reverse the trend by bringing in startups from restaurants to IT. The ROK is responding to its aging rural population needs by supporting public transportation initiatives, which have seen increases in the number of elderly engaging in community life, and legal services previously inaccessible.

©-Abdul-Majeed-GorayaIRIN-PakistanCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Challenges of urban resilience in India,, All India Disaster Mitigation Institute (AIDMI), no.128 (March 2015) [845 KB, PDF]

Weak institutional frameworks and gross social inequalities in India make the urban centers of the country particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of disasters. Climate change has added another level of complexity to the mire of existing vulnerabilities. In this context, this issue attempts to explore the underlying facts, observable trends and the projected impacts of these urban risks and their implications on urban resilience in India.

imageAUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Spooks admit it in private: Snowden has made them rethink their methods, Duncan Campbell, The Guardian (2 June 2015)

With previously unimaginable levels of surveillance of global electronic communications, leaders of Five Eyes agencies themselves ask whether “Snowden’s actions were an inevitable, and perhaps necessary, counterbalance to excesses of intelligence collection after 9/11”. Their capacity to listen to the world’s 200-plus communications satellites has more than quadrupled since 2001. FVEY cooperative research gives the minor players in the Anglophone SIGINT club – Australia, Canada and New Zealand – key roles in global surveillance.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found — North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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