Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 14 May 2015

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Network – 14 May 2015", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 14, 2015,

Deterrence imageDETERRENCE: Seoul, U.S. split on North Korea nuclear threat, Alastair Gale, Wall Street Journal (13 April 2015)

ROK vice defense minister dismissed US Admiral William Gortney’s assertion the DPRK can mount a warhead on a KN-08 missile, stating that the DPRK does not yet have a deployable small warhead. Reliability is key to assessing the credibility of such a capability, should it ever exist.

DPRK: DPRK SLBM test, Jeffrey Lewis, Arms Control Wonk (13 May 2015)

North Korea’s recent Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) Test likely stems from North Korean domestic politics (since it was covered in Rodong Sinmun) as well as a desire to maintain their internal status quo relatively free from outside interference. Moreover, any kind of submarine attack – whether conventional or nuclear – is inconsistent with North Korea’s normal modus operandi as it would represent Kim Jong-un devolving command and control for strategic decisions to a tactical level. Such tests also spur increased US-ROK cooperation and changes to US-Japan defense cooperation guidelines. The technological maturity of the entire chain is likely to be exceedingly low.

govGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: China’s counter-pivot response, Aaron Jed Rebina, International Policy Digest (11 May 2015)

As the US seeks to conclude the TPP and another component of its Asia Pivot, China has been making its own moves to maintain its influence in the region and beyond, including continuing negotiations on a trilateral FTA with the ROK and Japan. Japanese Parliamentarians are still in the dark about the specifics of the TPP, while the ROK’s belated attempt to join the negotiations was rebuffed by the US.

154809_842219_jokowi_kongresCLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Protecting Indonesia’s forests is a key issue for Paris climate talks, Nirarta Samadhi and Nigel Sizer, The Guardian (8 May 2015)

“We need to talk about Indonesia. Deforestation and land use change drives about 80% of Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions, which makes it the world’s fifth biggest emitter.” The problem for the rest of the world is that the current forestry moratorium is too small, with too many loopholes. And the new populist president, Joko Widodo, appears to be little more than a puppet of a corrupt precedessor, unable to stand-up to politically- and militarily-connected forestry interests.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found — North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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