Nautilus Peace and Security 27 August 2004

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"Nautilus Peace and Security 27 August 2004", NAPSNet Weekly Report, August 27, 2004,

The Nautilus Weekly provides an overview of current releases from NAPSnet, summary of the bimonthly EASSnet, highlights of developments in the global collaborative, recent publications on global problem solving and Freedom of Information Act, and updates on Nautilus activities and public relations. As a Nautilus Weekly subscriber, readers will also receive Nautilus Policy Forum Online and Special Reports, which bring timely insight and qualitative analysis on Northeast Asia issues to policymakers, journalists, and the general public. The Nautilus Weekly is disseminated to all subscribers of Nautilus Information Services, though readers may sign up to receive just the Nautilus Weekly.



NAPSNet Top Story: South Korea Sees No Nuclear Breakthrough Before US Elections

Agence France-Presse reported that the ROK’s top nuclear negotiator said he expects no breakthrough in frustrating the DPRK’s quest for nuclear weapons before US presidential elections in November. Such skepticism came from Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-Hyuck who met PRC officials this week to prepare for a new round of six-way nuclear talks due to open in Beijing next month. “I don’t think the situation will allow the United States to reach an agreement one month before the presidential elections, and North Korea is also likely to want to see the outcome of the elections.”

AESNet Top Story: Mongolia Energy Sector And LEAP Model

The Nautilus Institute released this report from the Asian Energy Security Workshop held in Beijing, China May 12 – 15, 2004. The report details the current status of Mongolia’s energy sector and discusses energy sector reform and regulation and the objectives of energy sector development. The report continues with an update of the Mongolia Long Range Energy Alternatives (LEAP) Model construction and implications of a regional alternative path for Mongolia including next steps for developing energy pathway scenarios


The Geopolitics Of Energy In Northeast Asia

The following is a paper presented by Kent Calder, Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins University, at the joint Korean Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) and International Energy Agency (IEA) workshop “Northeast Asia Energy Security and Regional Cooperation” in Seoul, Korea from May 17-18, 2004. In this paper Professor Calder argues that energy security is closely tied to political stability in Northeast Asia and that the DPRK is the center of this congruence. He discusses the importance of the Korean Economic Development Organization. (KEDO) and the need for a new or reissued group that includes representatives from the entire region and centers on natural gas and electricity interconnection projects.

Conventional Arms Control On The Korean Peninsula

This is a group report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in 2002. The report states although the North has no real prospect of prevailing in an armed conflict with the South, it nonetheless maintains the offensive capability to hold the Republic of Korea (ROK), and especially Seoul, hostage to the threat of a massive, short-warning attack that could inflict an unacceptable level of damage. This conventional arms threat, which provides Pyongyang with leverage in any crisis or confrontation with the United States or South Korea, should be addressed in upcoming talks among the United States, the ROK, and the DPRK.


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