NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 17 May, 2000

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"NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 17 May, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 17, 2000,

Nonproliferation and Arms Control

1. NPT Review Conference

The Acronym Institute and the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) have continuing coverage of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference. At an open plenary, the President of the Sixth NPT Review Conference, Abdallah Baali of Algeria, accepted the draft reports from the three main committees on nuclear disarmament, safeguards and nuclear weapon free zones and the non-military uses of nuclear energy.
“Reports and Representation”
“Contested Language in Main Committee II (Safeguards and Nuclear Weapon Free Zones”
“The Reckoning Begins”
“Rights and Responsibilities”
“Nuclear Disarmament Priorities”
“NPT Notes: News from Behind the Scenes”

2. Indian Policy toward NPT

BASIC has the statement by the Indian Minister of External Affairs to the Indian Parliament, explaining India’s position on the NPT Review Conference.

3. Japanese Disarmament Policy

Motoko Mekata notes that although the Tokyo Forum on Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation was initiated by the Japanese government, and has presented its results to the UN General Assembly, the Japanese Government has to date not made clear its official stance on the proposals. Mekata argues, “On the one hand, Japan, the only state to have experienced atomic bombings, has advocated the total elimination of nuclear weapons, and has reiterated its commitments in promoting global nuclear disarmament…. On the other hand, Japan imposes some restrictive barriers on its own diplomatic style and activity, sometimes unconsciously, refraining from taking an independent stance on nuclear disarmament issues principally because it remains under the US nuclear umbrella.”
“Words and Deeds: What Japan Should Do To Promote Nuclear Disarmament”

4. US-Russia Nuclear Talks

The US Joint Chiefs of Staff are opposing a Russian plan favored by the White House to cut the number of US nuclear warheads by an additional 1,000. Rumors in the US Congress say that President Bill Clinton will seek “unilateral cuts” in connections with the upcoming summit meeting in Moscow later this month. An anonymous senior US State Department official said, however, that Clinton is not likely to bring new proposals for reducing nuclear warhead stockpiles to the summit.
“Joint Chiefs Oppose Russian Plan To Cut 1,000 U.S. Warheads”
“Pentagon Feels Pressure To Cut Out More Warheads”
“Clinton unlikely to bring new nuke reduction proposals to Moscow: official”

Eugene Miasnikov examines the possibility of concluding START III now that the Russian Duma has ratified START II. Pavel Podvig argues that, while it will be difficult for the US and Russia to sign a new arms control agreement before US President Bill Clinton leave office, it is by no means impossible. Henry Kissinger argues that next month’s US-Russia summit meeting is taking place under anomalous circumstances, as Russian President Vladimir Putin is developing policies intended to shape Russia’s future, while US President Bill Clinton must be careful not to foreclose his successor’s options.
“START III: Opportunities and Consequences for Nuclear Disarmament”
“START and the ABM Treaty: Is a Compromise Possible?”
“Mission to Moscow”

5. US Attitudes toward Disarmament

According to surveys conducted by The Mellman Group for the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, the Council for a Livable World Education Fund, and the Fourth Freedom Forum, nearly seven out of every ten US citizens believe that “reduction” or “elimination of nuclear weapons worldwide should be the goal of U.S. nuclear policy,” and a majority of Americans support waiting to decide on deployment of national missile defenses until after the 19 tests are completed.
“Poll Shows Support for Nuclear Cuts, Opposition to NMD”

6. Nuclear Satellite Photos

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has obtained from the Space Imaging Corporation IKONOS high resolution satellite photos of Indian and Pakistani primary nuclear weapons and ballistic missile facilities, along with de-classified photos of Israeli nuclear and missile facilities.”
“A View of Non-NPT Nuclear States from Space: Nuclear and Missile Facility Satellite Images and Their Implications for the NPT”

Missile Defense

7. US Missile Defense

The chief of the US missile defense program said that the US Defense Department is bending its own rules on the testing and evaluation of a proposed National Missile Defense system in order to meet a deadline set by Congress and the White House.
“Pentagon Bends Rules on Antimissile Tests”
“Text-only version”

Colonel Daniel Smith argues that the US public is starting to pay more attention to the debate over national missile defense, in part because the media is starting to talk about issues everyone can understand: “logic, costs, benefits, alliances, and politics.”
“National Missile Defense: Another Update”

8. Russian View of Missile Defense

Celeste A. Wallander argues that the key to understanding Russian policies toward the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty is more complex than Russia’s familiar public posture. “It requires understanding Russia’s new security and military doctrines, the significant and complex role nuclear weapons play in defense policy, the relation between Russian conventional and nuclear capabilities, and the Putin administration’s priorities for economic reform.”
“Russian Policy and the Potential for Agreement on Revising the ABM Treaty”

9. Other Views of Missile Defense

Canadian Senator Douglas Roche spoke about National Missile Defense systems and the implications for international and Canadian arms control policy.
“Canadian Senator Roche Speaks On National Missile Defense, Nuclear Weapons”

BASIC has a compendium of statements on the US National Missile Defense (NMD) system made by officials attending the NPT Review Conference. BASIC notes that numerous appeals at the NPT Review Conference by both nuclear and non-nuclear states show a remarkable unity in holding the US to its commitment to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM).
“Statements made at NPT Conference on US Nuclear Missile Defense (NMD) Plans”
“Diplomacy Seeks to Preserve ABM”

Chemical and Biological Weapons

10. NATO Policy toward CBW

Colonel Frank Salis, spokesman of the NATO Military Committee, told the Swiss newspaper Tagesanzeiger that in order to contain the danger of opponents armed with chemical and biological weapons, NATO must be prepared to use nuclear weapons. Because the Alliance does not possess either biological or chemical weapons, Salis continued, the nuclear threat is the only thing that is left for deterrence. The story was reported last week by BASIC and carried by NPP FLASH, but this link provides an English translation of the original article.
“NATO Holds On To Its Nuclear Weapons”

11. BWC Convention

The 19th session of the Ad Hoc Group (AHG) of States Parties to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), held in Geneva from March 13-31, coincided with the 25th anniversary of the Convention’s entry into force. Jenni Rissanen argues, “Progress in the March session was modest and delegations will need to start tackling the difficult political questions in the next sessions if the AHG is to finish the negotiations before the 2001 BWC Review Conference, as mandated.”
“BWC Update”


12. US Security Policy

David Isenberg argues that the press response to the latest release from the US Commission on National Security/21st Century, “Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom,” was overblown. “Sure the report was critical of the American military’s policy of fighting two major-theater wars almost simultaneously, but it failed to offer any alternative, instead falling back on rehashed debates.”
“Biting the Bullet, Blue-Ribbon Panel Style”

13. Russian Military Doctrine

Ivan Safranchuk analyzes Russia’s new national security concept adopted in late April 2000. The chairman of the NATO military committee, Admiral Guido Venturoni, said that NATO regards as normal wording on the threshold of using nuclear weapons contained in the concept. He added that the final version of the concept of Russian national security and the Russian military doctrine contains less confrontation elements against NATO.
“Russia’s New Military Doctrine”
“NATO Admiral Satisfied with Russian Nuclear Doctrine.”

14. European Security

Michael Smith examines the European Union’s (EU) plans for a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which might lead to a European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI). He argues that despite a number of obstacles there are still strong reasons to believe that the EU will be able to develop more effective cooperation in these areas. BASIC argues that the EU’s agreement to establish a “Rapid Reaction Facility” (RRF) “In effect, this civilian rapid deployment capability would complement EU plans to develop an independent military capability that has stirred considerable discussion in the United States.”
“Understanding Europe’s “”New”” Common Foreign and Security Policy: A Primer for Outsiders”
“EU Plan for Rapid Reaction Facility: A Small but Important First Step”


15. US Military in Asia

During March 28-30, 2000, the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) held a conference entitled “Evolving Roles of the Military in the Asia-Pacific.” The purpose of the meeting was to assess the current and future role of regional military forces in the post-Cold War environment. The conference was organized around four panels: (1) Trends in Asia and their Implications for the Military; (2) Evolving Transnational Roles for the Military; (3) Dynamics of the Military Role in Civil-Military Relations; and (4) New Directions for Asian Militaries. Former US Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Dov Zakheim argues that not only does the US have a strong strategic position in Northeast Asia, but that position is not eroding as quickly as some feared it would.
“Report from the Conference on Evolving Roles of the Military in the Asia-Pacific”
“The American Strategic Position In East Asia”

16. US Missile Targeting

Owen Cote argues that if the US military is aggressive in developing and protecting Integrated Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) guidance, it will be able to guide weapons of “any range, precisely, night or day, cloudy or clear, to any point on the surface of the earth.”
“Mobile Targets from Under the Sea: New Submarine Missions in the New Security Environment”

17. US Defense Budget

The Council for a Livable World has a preliminary analysis of the US House of Representatives and Senate Armed Services Committees’ differing versions of the Fiscal Year 2001 Defense Authorization Bill.
“Defense authorization bill preliminary analysis”

18. US Military Sales

The Federation of American Scientists has an online database on US military sales, which includes the Clinton Administration’s notifications to Congress of proposed government-negotiated Foreign Military Sales (FMS) agreements, export licenses for industry-negotiated Direct Commercial Sales (DCS), leases of equipment, and reduced price or free excess defense article (EDA) transfers to developing countries.
“U.S. Arms Sales or Giveaways: 1994-Present”


19. US Bill on Trade with PRC

The Brookings Institution has a policy brief on the upcoming vote in the US Congress on whether to provide Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to the PRC, which said that a positive vote would strengthen bilateral economic relations more generally. Nancy Bernkopf Tucker argues that the PRC’s accession to the World Trade Organization and its acquisition of PNTR are vital not just for the prosperity of the PRC but also for Taiwan. Joseph Fewsmith examines the impact of PNTR on three levels of Chinese public opinion: elite policy makers, intellectual “opinion makers” and broader, mostly urban, public opinion. Doug Guthrie argues that there is no evidence that isolation will help the citizens of China, and there is a great deal of evidence that engagement has brought about change in the realm of human rights. Joseph Gerson writes that US President Bill Clinton’s argument that membership in the WTO and the extension of permanent NTR will change and Americanize China in “revolutionary” ways “communicates a disturbing imperial arrogance to many in China.” Lyuba Zarsky argues that the debate in the US is not really about China, but about the WTO.
“Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China”
“The Taiwan Factor in the Vote on PNTR for China and its WTO Accession”
“The Impact of WTO/PNTR on Chinese Politics”
“Argument For Engagement”
“Strategic Contexts of China Debate”
“The Future of US-China Relations: Do Progressives Have a Vision?”

20. Taiwan Straits

Nicholas Berry argues that the PRC’s official position that it wants a peaceful reunification with Taiwan is credible. He adds, however, there should be no doubt that the PRC would absolutely use armed force if Taiwan moves toward independence. Robert Suettinger argues that many observers in the US still see China through the overly simplistic lens of the Cold War.
“The Chinese Use of Armed Force Across the Taiwan Strait”
“The Taiwan Dilemma: Time for a Change in the U.S. Approach?”

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