NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 10 May, 2000

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"NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 10 May, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 10, 2000,

Nonproliferation and Arms Control

1. Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference

The Acronym Institute continues its ongoing coverage of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The conference President, Abdallah Baali of Algeria, is determined that the Conference should be successful in adopting some “realistic” recommendations by consensus. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei stressed the NPT States Parties’ responsibilities in the strengthening of the safeguards regime, noting that 54 States Parties continued to be in non-compliance with the obligation to conclude safeguards agreements with the IAEA and urging them to do so without delay. Acronym Institute also summarized the work of committees on issues such as the CTBT, fissile materials ban, missile defense, tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear weapon free zones, etc.
“Half Time”
“Safeguards, Export Controls and Nuclear Energy”
“Committee Work Underway”

The New Agenda Coalition responded to the joint statement by the five nuclear powers pledging complete nuclear disarmament.
“New Agenda Coalition Responds to Disarmament Pledge”

2. Israeli Compliance with NPT

A Jerusalem Post editorial argues that the criticism of Israel at the Non-Proliferation Treaty conference in New York is wrong and that Israel’s refusal to sign the treaty is not a failure on Israel’s part, but of the non-proliferation regime to adapt to the real challenges of the post-Cold War order. The paper writes that the NPT is “as quirky an agreement as the international community has ever produced” and that the best hope for stopping or rolling back nuclear proliferation lies in reducing the value of such weapons through the global deployment of missile defenses.
“NPT or nuclear cynicism”
“Text-only version”

3. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

On the occasion of the third anniversary of the establishment of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), the Provisional Technical Secretariat organized a panel discussion on the significance, achievements and way forward for the Treaty regime.
“CTBT Three Years On – Significance, Achievements, The Way Forward”


Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the START II treaty on Thursday, affirming the Russian Diet’s ratification of the treaty.
“Russian President Ratifies START II”

5. Russian Nuclear Exports

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Sunday which would allow the export of nuclear materials, equipment and technology under certain conditions, the Kremlin press service said. The statement said that the decree only relates to countries that do not have nuclear armaments and are not yet covered by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
“Putin Signs Decree Allowing Nuclear Exports Under Certain Circumstances”

6. Chemical Weapons Convention

The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Homepage has the opening statement by the CWC director-general to the executive council.
“Opening Statement By The Director-General To The Nineteenth Session Of The Executive Council”

Missile Defense

7. US-Russian ABM Talks

US Congressional Republicans told Russian legislators that the US will build a national missile defense system despite Russian concerns. Vladimir Ryzhkov, a member of Russia’s State Duma, stated, “The American side needs to weigh the consequences” such an action. However, Konstantin Kosachev, deputy chairman of the Duma’s foreign relations committee, stated, “I completely agree with my American colleagues that we should never hurry in this matter.”
“GOP tells Russians missile defense a go”
“Russia says missiles may revive Cold War”

Several commentators wrote about next month’s Moscow summit, where US President Bill Clinton will try to persuade Russia’s new President Vladimir Putin to modify the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. All the analysts noted that even if Clinton can persuade Putin to compromise, Senator Jesse Helms, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, warns that Congress will not approve any agreement.
“Trying to Stop Fortress America”
“US-Russia summit futile?”
“Swords vs. Shields”
“The Arms Control Knot”
“Clinton Must ‘Cease and Desist’ Efforts to Conclude Flawed Arms Control Accords”

8. US Views of Missile Defense

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has printed the documents that the US government gave to Russia to support the US call to renegotiate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, along with commentaries. Bruce Blair writes that the US position fails to properly acknowledge the depth of Russia’s concern that the US national missile defense system will threaten Russia’s strategic deterrent and thereby disrupt strategic stability. Lisbeth Gronlund and David C. Wright write that the documents are more interesting for what they reveal about US nuclear policy than what they reveal about proposed changes to the ABM Treaty. Jack Mendelsohn writes that the documents confirm the concerns of both the critics of the US national missile defense (NMD) program and the skeptics of the so-called “Grand Bargain” in which Russia would permit the US to amend the ABM Treaty and embark on the deployment of missile defenses in exchange for US agreement to START III levels of 1,500 strategic nuclear warheads on each side.
“Introduction to ABM Treaty ‘Talking Points'”
“Empty Reassurances”
“Documents Reveal True U.S. Intentions”
“Psst, Buddy, Wanna Sign a Protocol?”

Former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski argued that a US decision to deploy a national missile defense system could transform the US into an internationally gated community. He adds, “the decision will be premature and disruptive to America’s key strategic relationships.” Daniel Ellsberg warned that US efforts to change the ABM treaty to build a limited missile defense would encourage an arms race with Russia at a time when Russia’s nuclear forces are “vulnerable and accident-prone.”
“Indefensible Decisions”
“U.S. Nuke Treaty Changes Denounced”

9. Russian Views of Missile Defense

Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s international cooperation department, said that US proposals to amend the ABM Treaty are not constructive and cannot be seen as the basis for future consultations.”Russian General Cool on U.S. ABM Proposals”
“Russian Criticizes U.S. Missile Plans”

10. European Views of Missile Defense

Disagreements between the United States and its European allies on several key issues, particularly the US proposal to build a national missile defense system, are threatening the future of NATO, according to The Times. The foreign policy chief for the European Union, Javier Solana, said that European officials were concerned about the potentially damaging effects that the US plan for missile defense could have on Europe’s security ties with the US. He warned that if Europe is not protected by the missile shield, deployment of the system could lead to a splintering in military ties between the US and its NATO allies.

“U.S. Missile Plan Could Hurt Security Ties, European Says”
“Europe Concerned Over Missile System”
“Missile dispute ‘threatens Nato'”

11. PRC Views of Missile Defense

The Center for Nonproliferation Studies notes that the PRC has become more vocal in recent years in its opposition to missile defenses as the United States has accelerated its programs. The report argues that Chinese opposition to US missile defense programs is based on both historical and substantive concerns about the danger of nuclear blackmail, the United States’ superpower status, US alliances, Japan’s military potential and US military aid to Taiwan.
“China’s Opposition to US Missile Defense Programs”


12. NATO Nuclear Strategy

According to a press advisory from the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), the Swiss newspaper Tagesanzeiger reported that NATO is moving forward with a plan to expand its strategic doctrine to, for the first time, threaten the use of nuclear weapons in retaliation for a chemical or biological attack. The paper quotes NATO Military Committee spokesman Colonel Frank Salis as saying that the alliance needs “equivalent means of deterrence as well as defense against all forms of possible attacks. Since the alliance does not have biological weapons or chemical weapons, it can only threaten by nuclear weapons.”
“NATO Council Could Adopt Nuclear Strategy Today”

In a response to questions in the Dutch Parliament, Netherlands’ Foreign Minister van Aartsen said that NATO nuclear strategy has not changed as a result of a new policy guidance document, but added that the United States, “among others, does not exclude the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states ‘under very special circumstances’.” Aartsen explained that these circumstances “have not been specified further,” but confirmed that it “could be in reaction to an attack with biological or chemical weapons.”
“NATO Nuclear Strategy”

13. NATO Expansion

Stratfor reports that Lithuania’s parliament will consider a proposal by the New Union Party to cut the country’s defense spending, although the country has pledged to increase spending in a bid to join the NATO alliance.
“Guns Versus Butter: A NATO Aspirant Reconsiders”

14. Russian Nuclear Weapons

An article in Reuters notes that the ultimate power of the Russian president lies within the briefcase with codes to launch nuclear missiles. It quotes Boris Yeltsin’s former spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, as saying, “The nuclear button is an effective way to control Russian nuclear forces and also a symbol of the presidency.”
“Nuclear Briefcase – Symbol Of Russian Might”

15. US Strategic Planning

The US Commission on National Security/21st Century released its report, “Seeking A National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom.” Andrew F. Krepinevich, Michael G. Vickers and Steven M. Kosiak argue that the report comes up short in crafting a strategy for preserving US security in a rapidly changing security environment. They conclude, “Unfortunately, the commission fails to clearly set strategic priorities, make choices among competing alternatives for achieving its objectives, or provide a meaningful indication of the resources that would be required to achieve its objectives.”
“Hart-Rudman Commission Report-A Critique”

16. Information Security

Dr. Steven Metz argues that the information revolution will have far-reaching strategic effects. Metz introduces a number of ideas for further analysis, including the potential for the emergence of nontraditional, networked enemies; multidimensional asymmetry; the privatization of security; and the potential impact of technologies like robotics, nonlethality, and nanotechnogy.
“Armed Conflict In The 21st Century: The Information Revolution And Post-Modern Warfare”


17. Russian Weapons Systems

The Russian defense ministry announced on 28 April that it has added the Topol-M intercontinental nuclear missile to the country’s arsenal. The Topol-M, known to NATO as the SS-27, has a range of 10,000 km (6,200 miles) and is a single-warhead system. Meanwhile, the Russian navy announced a new upgrade in the Piranha mini-submarine used for reconnaissance and hit-and-run raids, and the MiG aircraft enterprise announced plans for updating the MiG-29 jet in four versions. The Russian air force will soon take delivery of a new Tu-160 strategic bomber to bring its fleet up to 15, Interfax reported on 3 May.
“Moscow Puts Topol-M Missile, New Sub On Line”
“Russia Adds Strategic Bomber To Fleet”

18. Israeli Missile Test

The US Department of Defense responded to questions concerning Israel’s test firing on April 6 of a Jericho ballistic missile. The missile test, which was not pre-announced, flew over the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier battle group and crashed into the Mediterranean Sea less than 50 miles from the cruiser USS Anzio.
“DOD Response To Israeli Ballistic Missile Launch (excerpts)”
“Full briefing”

19. PRC Carrier Purchase

The Russian daily Kommersant reported that Russia has sold the PRC the aircraft carrier Kiev. Stratfor argues that, by itself, the carrier will not be enough to allow the People’s Liberation Army Navy to tip the regional balance of power, but it will help Russia gain the attention of both regional and global actors.
“China Buys the Original Soviet Carrier”

20. Japanese Navy

Japanese Defense Agency Chief Tsutomu Kawara concluded a visit to Singapore May 3 where Singapore’s defense minister, Tony Tan, granted Japan’s request for advance approval to use Singapore’s military bases. The bases would allow Tokyo to evacuate its citizens abroad and to assist in UN peacekeeping operations in Southeast Asia.
“Japan Gains Access to Bases in Singapore”

21. US Humanitarian Interventions

The US Department of State released under the Freedom of Information Act an interagency study of recent US humanitarian interventions. The report includes “lessons learned” from the successes and failures of the most recent US humanitarian interventions abroad, including Kosovo, Sudan, Afghanistan, and the aftermath of Hurricane Mitch in Central America.
“Lessons Learned from U.S. Humanitarian Interventions Abroad”


22. US-PRC Trade Relations

The Heritage Foundation argues that US policy toward the PRC should generate mutual benefits for the people of both countries in addition to protecting US national security and promoting a climate of stability in the Asia-Pacific region. “Encouraging China to move toward democratization and establish a market economy based on international norms and the rule of law can facilitate such a climate and help improve its human rights practices. Granting China permanent NTR [Normal Trade Relations] … will boost this process.”
“How Trade With China Benefits Americans”

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