NAPSNET Week in Review 9 March, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 9 March, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, March 09, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-9-march-2001/

Korea


1. US-ROK Summit

US President George W. Bush told ROK President Kim Dae-jung on Wednesday that he would not resume negotiations with the DPRK on missile talks anytime soon. Bush told Kim that the US still regards the DPRK as a threat and could not verify the implementation of any possible deal with the DPRK. The previous day US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said that the Bush administration intends to pick up where the Clinton administration left off in negotiations with the DPRK over its missile programs. Speaking at various talks with local organizations on Thursday Kim urged the US to negotiate with the DPRK soon.
Bush Administration’s Stance on Missile Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)
“US-ROK Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)

US President Bush stated his support for ROK President Kim’s engagement policy with the DPRK and the two leaders issued a joint statement supportive of the need for new defenses to cope with developing threats to international security, referring to the proposed US missile defense. Kim was also to meet a variety of US leaders in Washington as part of his efforts to secure US opinion leaders’ support for his approach toward the DPRK and his economic reform policy.
“US-ROK Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)
“ROK-US Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, ROK)
“US-ROK Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)
“ROK President’s Visit to US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, ROK)
“ROK-US Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, ROK)


2. US Policy toward DPRK

US Secretary of State Colin Powell stated that the US still sees the DPRK as a threat and is undertaking a full review of its relationship with that country. He described the DPRK’s troop deployments on the border as “probably as great a threat to South Korea and Seoul and regional stability as are weapons of mass destruction.”
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)
“US Policy Towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)

Jon B. Wolfsthal, an Associate in the Non-proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that mixed signals from the ROK over the proposed US national missile defense system adds to US concerns sparked by recent statements from the DPRK hinting that it will restart of its missile and nuclear programs. US Senator Joseph Biden, the highest-ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said, “We should engage North Korea in a serious diplomatic effort… It is vital that we not drop the ball; miss an opportunity to end North Korea’s deadly and destabilizing pursuit of long range missiles.”
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)
“Reactions to US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)
“US Editorials on Missile Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)

A Japan Times editorial warned that “treating Pyongyang like an enemy will ensure that it becomes one.” Li Xiguang, director of international communications at Qinghua University in Beijing, said, “It would be counterproductive to change the policy of engaging North Korea. If that changes, the North could react with hostility and become more confrontational and defensive.” A Washington-based Japanese diplomatic source said, “The divergence between the US and the ROK in policy toward the DPRK is not desirable to Japan…. The DPRK may drive a wedge between them and even provoke the Bush administration.”
“Japanese View of Missile Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)
“Japanese View of US-ROK Policy Toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, Japan)


3. Agreed Framework

House International Relations Committee Chairman Henry J. Hyde, House Republican Policy Committee Chairman Christopher Cox, and Representative Edward J. Markey urged Bush to not commit himself to the 1994 Agreed Framework with the DPRK, to retain the flexibility to renegotiate the agreement, and to provide conventional power plants instead of nuclear facilities. On Thursday, Secretary of State Colin Powell said, “We are monitoring the Agreed Framework, and we’ve continued to support the 1994 Agreed framework.”
“Agreed Framework” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)
“US Policy Towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)

The US and ROK governments are at odds over the provision of electricity to the DPRK, it was reported Sunday, with the US taking the position that it should be linked to implementation of the Geneva Accord, while the ROK believes it is an inter-Korean issue.
“ROK-DPRK Energy Cooperation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, ROK)


4. US-DPRK Missile Deal

Wendy R. Sherman, senior policy coordinator on the DPRK for the Clinton administration, said this week that a US-DPRK agreement to end the DPRK’s long-range missile program was in reach near the end of the US President Bill Clinton administration.
“US-DPRK Missile Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, US)

According to current and former US government experts, Kim Jong-il promised in confidential talks with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright last year not to produce, test or deploy missiles with a range of more than 300 miles. The experts added that the DPRK also offered to halt the sale of missile-related materials and dropped its demand that it be paid cash for giving up its long- range missile programs. However, there was little progress on verification measures. An unidentified high-ranking US official said that the deal that the former Clinton administration had almost made with the DPRK is still on the table.
“US-DPRK Missile Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)
“US Stance on DPRK Missile Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, Japan)


5. Alleged DPRK Drug Smuggling

The US State Department, in an annual report on drug control released March 1, hinted that the DPRK may be manufacturing and smuggling drugs into other countries and said it will “keep tabs on” the DPRK, while admitting there was a lack of clear evidence. A DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman assailed the US for recently slandering his country over the “drug issue,” the Korean Central News Agency reported Tuesday.
“Alleged DPRK Drug Smuggling” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, ROK)


6. DPRK Missile Program

The ROK Defense Ministry refused comment Monday regarding a local report that said the DPRK has built up its Scud missiles with ranges between 300 and 500 km and relocated two mechanized brigades to the frontal area. According to the ROK’s Chosun Ilbo on March 3, the DPRK has produced and deployed about 100 Rodong missiles since 1998 and tested the Taepodong-2 missile engines three or four times.
“DPRK Missile Build-up” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, ROK)
“DPRK Missile Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, Japan)


7. Light-water Reactor Project

The nuclear reactor project in the DPRK increasingly appears to be a diplomatic nuisance to related governments these days, ROK observers said. Amid the strife between the DPRK and the US, ROK officials have maintained that the construction of two light water reactors should be completed as planned. Some US experts and Republicans are expressing their skepticism about both the safety and efficiency of the two light water reactors. They also raised the possibility that the DPRK may be able to extract weapons-grade plutonium from the provided nuclear plants, proposing that one of the twin reactors be replaced with conventional thermal power plants.
“Light-water Reactor Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, ROK)
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, Japan)


8. ROK-DPRK Relations

ROK Unification Ministry spokesman Lee Kwan-se stated that the DPRK accepted an ROK proposal to hold a fifth round of Cabinet-level talks in Seoul next week. ROK officials said Wednesday that the ROK and the DPRK will resume high-level talks in Seoul next Tuesday to discuss furthering inter-Korean rapprochement by, among others, fixing the date for DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s visit to Seoul. ROK Minister of Culture and Tourism Kim Han-gill announced that he will visit Pyongyang on March 10 at the invitation of Kim Yong-sun, chairman of the Asia Pacific Peace Committee, to discuss exchanges in culture, tourism and sports.
“ROK-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)
“Inter-Korean Ministerial Meeting” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, ROK)
“ROK Minister to Visit DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, ROK)

DPRK defector Hwang Jang-yop may travel to the US at the invitation of US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms to offer testimony at a hearing on the DPRK.
“DPRK Defector May Visit US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, ROK)

ROK Defense Ministry spokesman Yoon Won-jae stated that the ROK resumed work on reconnecting a railway and highway that will link it with the DPRK.
“Inter-Korean Railway” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)
“Inter-Korean Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, ROK)


9. DPRK-EU Relations

ROK officials said Tuesday that the DPRK’s diplomatic campaign to normalize relations with all European Union (EU) members is reaching its final stages as it has opened ties with most of the EU states. Germany became the 11th European Union member country to establish diplomatic relations with the DPRK. Only France and Ireland do not have diplomatic links with the DPRK.
“DPRK-EU Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, ROK)
“DPRK-Germany Diplomatic Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, RF)
“DPRK-Germany Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, PRC)
“DPRK-Luxembourg Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, US)
“Sweden-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, ROK)


10. DPRK Economic Policy

A PRC source reported that the DPRK is set to expand its farmers’ contract system nationwide, similar to PRC’s, following the success of a limited test.
“DPRK Economic Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, ROK)


China


1. PRC Aid to Iraq

The Los Angeles Times reported that US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said that the US is pressing the PRC to explain reports that its workers, violating international sanctions against Baghdad, installed equipment that helped the Iraqi military better target allied air patrols. The Washington Post reported that the PRC Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it was ready to investigate US complaints that a PRC company and its technicians may have assisted Iraq in rebuilding its air defenses. PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan had rejected US allegations that PRC companies helped improve Iraqi air defenses in violation of UN sanctions.
“PRC Aid to Iraq” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)
“PRC Aid to Iraq” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, US)

A senior US official reported that PRC officials told US Ambassador to the PRC Joseph Prueher on Monday that three companies were violating UN sanctions, and that it has ordered the companies to stop doing business in Iraq and abide by the sanctions. However, the PRC officials also denied that the companies were upgrading Iraq’s air-defense system.
“PRC Companies in Iraq” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)

Joseph A. Bosco, a lecturer in China-Taiwan Relations at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, published an editorial in which he argued that, because of the PRC’s aid to the weapons programs of countries like Iraq, Pakistan and the DPRK, its anti-US, “anti-hegemonism” policy can no longer be dismissed as mere rhetoric.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, US)


2. PRC-US Human Rights Dispute

The PRC government responded to a US State Department review of its human rights record by saying it is “totally unreasonable” for the US to interfere in the PRC’s internal affairs under the pretext of so-called human rights. Zhou Jue, president of the China Society for Human Rights Studies, said that the ratification of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Culture Rights fully demonstrates that the PRC’s attitude on the adoption of international covenants of human rights is positive and prudent.
“PRC-US Human Rights Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, PRC)


3. PRC Economic Reform

A five-year plan presented at the PRC’s National People’s Congress promises to scale back government, dismantle unprofitable state-owned enterprises, make way for private firms and investors, and welcome competition from foreign multinational corporations. However, the reform agenda is contradicted by a number of competing government initiatives designed to bolster the Communist Party and give a short-term boost to ease the social pain of the effort to become a modern, market-oriented economy.
“PRC Economic Reform” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)

The PRC announced a 17.7 percent increase in its defense spending. US Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral Craig Quigley declined to state spending increase exceeded US expectations, but said the PRC military modernization plan was well known.
“PRC Defense Budget” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, US)


4. RF-PRC Relations

The PRC Foreign Minister said that a new RF-PRC treaty would be signed this summer. He said that the treaty would not include “any mutual obligations of military-political nature and no agreements on assistance in case of a threat.”
“RF-PRC Treaty” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, RF)

A representative of Russia’s Beriev aircraft enterprise said that the company was ready to build AWACS-type A-50 planes for the PRC in case the relevant contract were signed. The enterprise has produced 20 such planes for the RF Air Force. A successful test firing of RF-made anti-ship “Moskit” supersonic missile took place in PRC.
“RF-PRC Military Links” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, RF)

Segodnya reported that a PRC citizen was detained by the RF Federal Security Service after attempting to take abroad blueprints of an RF nuclear-powered submarine and maps of areas where RF Navy units were stationed.
“RF-PRC Alleged Spy Case” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, RF)


5. US Policy Towards Taiwan

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the Bush administration will maintain the position that the US does not support Taiwanese independence but will help the island resist any attempt by the PRC to take it by force.
“US Policy Towards Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)

The PRC is seeking to convince the US not to provide Taiwan with the advanced Aegis air defense and battle management system. PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said that selling upgraded Patriot missile batteries and warships with state-of-the-art radars would send “a very wrong signal” to Taiwan’s government, inflame tensions and encourage Taiwanese who want to remain separate from the PRC. “Sales of a large number of weapons to Taiwan will not only undermine the security of China but will also threaten the security of the Asia-Pacific region,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said, arguing that continued weapons sales by the US to Taiwan constitute serious interference in the PRC’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)
“US Weapons Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, US)
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, PRC)


Japan


1. Japanese Political Situation

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori survived a second no-confidence motion Monday, but faced persistent calls to resign. Japanese dailies said that Mori would announce his intention to resign Friday or Saturday over concerns about the nation’s poor financial recovery. Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa warned Thursday that the Japanese government’s public finances are near collapse. Aides to Miyazawa quickly stated that his comments were attempting to underscore the growing debate in Japan over government spending and that he was not predicting an imminent default.
“Japanese Political Situation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)
“Japanese Political Situation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)
“Prime Minister’s Situation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, Japan)


2. Alleged Japanese Spying for Russia

A Tokyo District Court spokesman said that Shigehiro Hagisaki, formerly a lieutenant commander with the Maritime Self-Defense Force, had been sentenced to 10 months in prison for leaking defense secrets to a Russian military attache.
“Alleged Japanese Spying for Russia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)


3. US-Japan Submarine Accident

The US Navy on Monday began a court of inquiry into the sinking of the Japanese fishing boat Ehime Maru by the nuclear submarine USS Greeneville.
“US-Japan Submarine Accident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)


4. Historical Debates

The Los Angeles Times reviewed a book by David D. Lowman, entitled “MAGIC: The Untold Story of U.S. Intelligence and the Evacuation of Japanese Residents From the West Coast During WWII.” Lowman argues that the order to intern Japanese-Americans in camps during World War II was justified by urgent security concerns.
“Japanese-American Internment in WWII” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, US)

Four Chinese men testified in a Japanese court regarding germ warfare by Japan in World War II. They described how the bubonic plague had spread from village to village from 1940 to 1942, dropped by Japanese Imperial Army Unit 731.
“Japanese Unit 731 Case” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, US)

A history textbook to be used in Japan will be revised following criticism from other Asian states. The DPRK and PRC condemned the Japanese revision of its history textbook. The DPRK’s Nodong News urged Japan to make up for its historical wrongdoing by sincere apology and compensation. The report quoted diplomatic sources as saying on March 8 that the row, as well as the increasing uncertainty over Japanese politics, have forced Japan and the ROK to postpone a regular ministerial meeting originally planned for later this month.
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, US)
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, PRC)
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 9, Japan)


Russia


1. RF-ROK Summit

Nezavisimaya gazeta’s Dmitriy Kosyrev stated that the RF-ROK joint statement in favor of preservation of the ABM Treaty of 1972 demonstrated the ROK’s well-known although rarely voiced position of opposition to US missile defense plans.
“RF-ROK Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 7, RF)


South Asia


1. Indian Ceasefire Issues

Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani stated that there was not a ceasefire in Jammu and Kashmir, but a combat operation stoppage. C. Raja Mohan argues in The Hindu that Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee has raised expectations for the peace process with the extension of the ceasefire, but argues that Vajpayee should not wait until May to decide how to move forward.
“Ceasefire Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)

The Hindu reported that Kashmiris are expressing the feeling that the level of activity by security forces in Jammu and Kashmir indicates that there is not really a ceasefire underway. Shoukat Maqbool Butt, head of the National Liberation Front in Kashmir and a leader of the All Parties National Alliance, an alliance of pro-independence Kashmiri groups, urged militant groups in Kashmir to stop operations against Indian security forces. A spokesman for the Pakistan-based Hizbul Mujahideen militant group stated that the Indian government should provide a formula for how it intends to resolve the Kashmir issue.
“Ceasefire Overview” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)
“Militant Groups” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)


2. Pakistan Overview

Suba Chandran, a Research Officer with the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi, argues that a significant concern in evaluating Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf’s desire for dialogue with India is determining how much control Musharraf has over jihadi groups in Pakistan.
“Overview” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)


3. Taliban Statue Destruction

The South Asian and international media has reported that Afghanistan’s Taliban has begun destroying archaeological relics that it believes are “un-Islamic,” including Buddhas carved into the cliffs of Bamiyan.

“Taliban Statue Destruction” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)


Nuclear Weapons


1. CIA Report on South Asia Proliferation

The US Central Intelligence Agency, in a semi-annual report to the US Congress on proliferation threats, stated that India is continuing its nuclear weapons program, assisted by technology from Russia and Western Europe. The report also stated that Pakistan is moving to serial production of its short-range ballistic missile with continued PRC assistance, despite PRC promises to the contrary.
“CIA Report on Proliferation” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)

Hui Zhang wrote that despite pressure upon India and Pakistan to accede to international nonproliferation regimes, both countries continue adding to their stocks of fissile materials and are engaging in a missile race.
“South Asia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


2. India Nuclear Policy

India’s Group of Ministers, advised by the heads of India’s armed forces, submitted a report to Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee that proposed the creation of a Chief of Defense Staff post to command India’s nuclear arsenal.
“Security Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #10)


3. Iraqi Nuclear Program

The London Sunday Times reported that two former senior scientists in the Iraqi nuclear program stated that Iraq carried out a successful nuclear test before the Gulf war and now has a nuclear stockpile.
“Iraqi Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


4. UK Nuclear Program

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published in its January/February 2001 edition an essay by Richard Moore in which Moore describes the early years of the British nuclear program, including how the UK began in 1960 to deploy British tactical nuclear weapons overseas on Royal Navy aircraft carriers, and at Royal Air Force bases.
“UK Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


5. US Nuclear Program

According to the Nuclear Notebook in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the modernization of US nuclear forces continues, with upgrades underway to all major nuclear weapon systems.
“US Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)

M. Elaine Bunn and Richard D. Sokolsky write that the forthcoming Strategic Posture Review (SPR) needs to fundamentally reassess the purposes of nuclear weapons, missile defenses, and the requirements of deterrence and stability in the new security environment.
“US Nuclear Posture Review” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


6. Russian Nuclear Policy

Nikolai Sokov writes in a recent analysis for the Center for Nonproliferation Studies that greater reliance on nuclear weapons has become a staple feature of Russian defense strategy, especially in the aftermath of the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Sokov describes a number of scenarios more plausible for tactical nuclear weapons than those involving Kaliningrad and offered by the Washington Times.
“Russian Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


7. US-Russia Arms Control Issues

Russian President Vladimir Putin this week described the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as the “root and trunk” of world security. Russian Lieutenant General Vyacheslav Romanov also accused the US of violating the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and threatened retaliatory measures if the nation withdraws from the ABM treaty. In a joint declaration issued after talks between ROK President Kim Dae-jung and visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin, the ROK joined Russia in supporting the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. The ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade denied that a joint statement released Tuesday by President Kim Dae-jung and Putin revealed a stand on missile defense.
“Russia-ROK Statements on ABM Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)
“ROK-Russia Statement on ABM” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 6, PRC)

US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell met with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in Egypt and agreed that arms control experts from both countries should meet soon to discuss sharp differences in their competing missile defense plans.
“US-Russia Talks” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


Missile Defense


1. US Missile Defense Spending

US President George W. Bush unveiled an outline of the future US government budget this week. He said the US must develop and deploy missile defenses, and he promised cuts to US nuclear forces.
“US Budget Statements” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


2. Russia Missile Defense Proposal

The US Defense Department said it was prepared to examine a Russian proposal for a European missile defense system. Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay, both Senior Fellows at the Brookings Institution, published an editorial in the New York Times in which they argued in favor of the US pursuing a Russian proposed joint missile defense program by Russia and NATO.
“Russia Missile Defense Proposal” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)


3. ROK Position on NMD

ROK Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn called on the US to have prior consultations with the ROK before pushing its National Missile Defense (NMD) program. The ROK government however avoided revealing its clear-cut position on whether to support or oppose the project.
“ROK Position on NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 5, ROK)


4. US Missile Defense Debate

David E. Mosher and Lowell H. Schwartz argue in a commentary that the debate over missile defense has focused on Russia because of the 1972 ABM Treaty and upon emerging threats like the DPRK and Iran, but has overlooked the PRC. They draw parallels to the Soviet push in the 1960’s to bridge the missile gap.
“Missile Defense Debate” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #9)

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