NAPSNET Week in Review 6 April, 2001

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China


1. US-PRC Spy Plane Collision

A US Navy EP-3 surveillance aircraft carrying a crew of 24 collided with a PRC fighter on April 1, 2001. The EP-3 was forced to make an emergency landing on the PRC’s Hainan Island. An unnamed US Defense Department official said that the pilot came into Lingshui air base on Hainan Island extremely fast, without slowing the plane by extending its wing flaps. The PRC fighter crashed and the pilot presumed dead. PRC officials have blamed the US for the incident while the US has accused the PRC of intercepting military aircraft in an “unsafe manner.” The US crew is being held and possible interviewed by PRC officials. The US Defense Department stated that it believed that the crew had successfully destroyed significant portions of the classified data and equipment on the plane before the plane was examined by PRC officials. The US has not apologized for the incident, though US President George Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell both expressed regret. Analyses report that the differences in US and PRC positions on culpability for the spy plane collision may be pushing the two sides into a test of wills that neither wanted. Extensive coverage is available through the links below. Shen Dingli, an expert on security issues at Fudan University in Shanghai, stated, “U.S.-China relations risk falling into a crisis. I cannot stress how sensitive the situation is right now.”
“US-PRC Spy Plane Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“Analysis of US-PRC Standoff” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“International Airspace Rules” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“PRC-US Air Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)
“PRC Government’s Response to Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)
“Media Reaction to Plance Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)
“US Spy Plane in PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)
“US Surveillance Equipment” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)
“US Spy Plane in the PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)
“US-PRC Plane Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)

The US-PRC spy plane incident has highlighted growing tensions in northeast Asia.
“Asian Reactions to US Spy Plane Incident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“Japanese Views of Spy Plane Incident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)
“Taiwan View of Spy Plane Incident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)
“Plane Collision’s Effect on Okinawa” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


2. Effect of Collision on US-PRC Relations

An official with the US Defense Department said that it is likely to recommend soon that Taiwan be sold aging Kidd-class destroyers but not Aegis-equipped warships. The official said that after an extensive study of the Taiwanese military, US military experts concluded that agreeing to sell ships that have Aegis radar systems would not provide a near-term significant increase in Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. An official argued, “The first worry is fleet air defense, not missiles.” US administration officials said that the EP-3 crisis has hardened US President George W. Bush’s position on the issue, and that as a result of the detention of the crew, Bush is more likely to approve sales of advanced missile destroyers equipped with Aegis battle management system, diesel submarines, Patriot PAC-3 missile systems and P-3 surveillance aircraft.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer refused to commit to backing normal trade relations with the PRC in the light of the recent airplane collision.
“Effect of Collision on US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


3. Cross-Straits Relations

The PRC began on April 2to increase pressure on Taiwan to give Taiwan’s non-governmental organizations the right to negotiate and link agreements on full cross-Straits links with their mainland counterparts. The move highlighted a major mainland effort to speed up the establishment of the “three direct links.”
“Direct Links across Taiwan Straits” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)


4. South China Sea Accord

The PRC and the Philippines agreed on Wednesday to take a number of steps to avoid escalating tension arising from territorial disputes in the South China Sea. PRC Premier Zhu Rongji said when meeting with Alfonso Yuchengco, the Philippine President’s special envoy, that the PRC is willing to work with the Philippines to strengthen bilateral cooperation.
“South China Sea Accord” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“PRC-Philippines Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)


5. PRC Defector

Chinese and Western sources said that Xu Junping, director of the American and Oceanic Office of the Foreign Affairs Bureau of the PRC Ministry of National Defense and who defected to the US last December, was a “walk-in” whose defection was apparently not arranged before his departure from the PRC.
“PRC Defector” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)


6. US Scholar Detained in PRC

Gao Zhan, a US-based Chinese scholar, was formally charged with being a spy for an overseas organization.
“US Scholar Detained in PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)


7. Dalai Lama’s Visit to Taiwan

The Dalai Lama began a visit to Taiwan on Saturday. The Dalai Lama stressed that his journey was aimed at religious teaching, not politics, and denied charges from the PRC that he hopes to use his time in Taiwan to push for Tibetan independence.
“Dalai Lama’s Visit to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)


Korea


1. US-DPRK Missile Talks

A task force of foreign policy experts sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations has urged the US to resume talks with the DPRK in order to negotiate an end to the threat posed by the DPRK’s ballistic missile program. The Arms Control Association sponsored a press conference at which Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr. stated that the US failure to pursue these negotiations will be perceived as an effort to maintain the DPRK as a rationale for pursuing a National Missile Defense, Morton H. Halperin stated that it was clear the DPRK would follow US interests in exchange for compensation, and Robert Gallucci stated his concern for the prospective policy of the Bush administration.
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


2. DPRK View of US Policy

ROK analysts expressed concern that the US President George W. Bush administration’s stance towards the DPRK has worsened a slowdown in ROK-DPRK rapprochement. Other analysts noted that US Secretary of State Colin Powell appears to be following a more moderate line that other members of the Bush administration.
“US Policy toward Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)

The DPRK’s Rodong Sinmun accused the US of trying to undermine the Korean reconciliation process. Kim Yong-Dae, vice president of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly presidium, speaking at the Inter-Parliamentary Union in Havana, described US policy towards the DPRK as “out of date and very displeasing.”
“DPRK View of US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“DPRK View of US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, ROK)
“DPRK View of US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)

The DPRK’s Korean Central News Agency claimed that the US sent reconnaissance and spy aircraft over the DPRK 180 times last month.
“US Spying on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, ROK)


3. EU Role on Korean Peninsula

Dahlgren, Sweden’s state secretary for foreign affairs, on Monday quoted Bush administration officials as saying that they support a European Union initiative to promote reconciliation between the DPRK and the ROK.
“EU Role on Korean Peninsula” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)

German lawmaker Hartmut Koschyk said that a seven-member German delegation has canceled a planned trip to the DPRK next month because the DPRK refused the group entry through the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and was unwilling to let media representatives accompany the delegation.
“DPRK-EU Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


4. DPRK Foreign Relations

The ROK Ministry of Unification (MU) reported that the number of DPRK diplomatic visits to foreign countries so far this year rose by 40 percent to 24, up from 16 for all of last year.
“DPRK Foreign Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, ROK)

PRC Vice-Premier Qian Qichen affirmed in Beijing on March 31 that it is the consistent policy of the PRC to promote relations with the DPRK. Qian said that the PRC supports all efforts by the DPRK and the ROK to seek better ties and to realize a peaceful unification.
“PRC-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)

ROK National Assembly Speaker Lee Man-sup said Cuban leader Fidel Castro said that he would consider visiting the ROK and the DPRK hoping to contribute to the rapprochement process on the Korean Peninsula.
“Castro Visit to Two Koreas” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, ROK)


5. Trilateral Policy Coordination

Japan, the US, and the ROK held a meeting on March 26 in Seoul to coordinate policy toward the DPRK and agreed to continue their coordination, but that the US and the ROK disagreed on the pace of improving relations with the DPRK.
“Japanese-US-ROK Policy Coordination” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, Japan)


6. ROK Defense Policy

The DPRK’s Rodong Sinmun on Saturday criticized ROK Defense Minister Kim Dong-shin for calling for closer military cooperation with the US and a strong defense posture.
“ROK-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)
“DPRK Criticize ROK Defense Minister” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, ROK)

A revised Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) giving the ROK greater jurisdiction over US soldiers accused of crimes went into effect on Monday.
“SOFA Revisions” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)


7. DPRK Military

US and ROK military officials said that they have observed a substantial buildup in the DPRK’s forward-deployed offensive firepower over the past year. They said that the DPRK has increased the number and size of military training exercises, continued the production and deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles, and amassed 70 percent of its active forces within 145 kilometers (90 miles) of the Demilitarized Zone.
“DPRK Military” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)


8. Inter-Korean Relations

A DPRK delegate identified as Ma Il-young, a representative of the DPRK’s Supreme People’s Assembly, said Monday that Kim Jong-il will visit Seoul in the latter half of 2000.
“Inter-Korean Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, ROK)
“Kim Jong-il’s ROK Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)

An ROK Ministry of Unification official said Monday that the DPRK had not responded to the Korean National Red Cross telephone message on March 22, calling for the fourth round of talks scheduled for April 3 to take place in Seoul.
“Inter-Korean Red Cross Talks
“Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)

Computer Associates International issued a press release which said that the Separated Family Reunion website has helped successfully resolve 110 cases of Korean family separations in 10 months since its inception.
“Reunions of Separated Families” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)


9. DPRK Domestic Conditions

The DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly adopted a new budget and policy guidelines. Premier Hong Song-nam stated, “The most urgent task facing the Cabinet this year is to improve the standard of the people’s living. Every effort should be exerted to develop agriculture to resolve the food problem of the people.”
“DPRK Parliamentary Session” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)

DPRK defector An Chang-suk said on Friday that she learned that her son, Yu Tae-jun, had been tortured and then shot by a firing squad when he returned to the DPRK to get his wife.
“DPRK Execution” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)

On April 15 the DPRK will host the Pyongyang International Marathon, sanctioned by the International Amateur Athletic Federation. Race promoters said that 600 local runners and 80 foreigners will take part in the marathon.
“Pyongyang Marathon” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, US)

The German government on Wednesday approved shipments of beef to the DPRK from cattle being slaughtered in the wake of a mad cow crisis. Development Minister Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul said that the government plans to ship up to 30,000 tons of meat, which will be tested for mad cow disease, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
“German Beef Exports to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)


10. ROK National Security Law

Song Hak-sam, an ROK-born US citizen, was indicted Thursday on charges of helping publish a book in the ROK praising DPRK leader Kim Jong-il.
“National Security Law” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


11. ROK-PRC Fisheries Agreement

ROK government officials said Thursday that the first fisheries treaty between the PRC and the ROK will come into effect on June 30.
“ROK-PRC Fisheries Treaty” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


Japan


1. Japanese History Textbook

ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo and PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan separately filed formal complaints to Japan on Wednesday over a new middle school history textbook. PRC Ambassador to Japan Chen Jian said that the changes to the book failed to remove “its essence of denial and beautification of Japan’s past aggression.”
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, Japan)


2. Wartime Issues

The Hiroshima High Court rejected on March 29 the appeal by three former ROK comfort women and seven ROK female forced labors demanding that the Japanese government formally apologize and pay to them compensation of ¥396 million.
“ROK Comfort Women and Forced Labors” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, Japan)

The Japanese Supreme Court rejected a demand by two ROK citizens that Japan pay disability pensions for wartime injuries suffered fighting for the Japanese Imperial Army during World War II, ruling that the plaintiffs had no right to seek the payment because the disability pension is for Japanese only.
“Korean Veterans of Japanese Army” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


3. US Nuclear Submarine in Japan

Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono had demanded an explanation for the US nuclear-powered submarine Chicago’s entry into the Japanese port of Sasebo without advance notice. The Japanese Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that the US apologized to Japan after a nuclear submarine entered a Japanese port without informing authorities.
“US Nuclear Submarine in Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 3, US)
“US Submarine Port Visit in Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)


4. Japanese-US Security Relations

The US plans to study the feasibility of setting up a standing secretariat jointly with Japan to discuss matters pertaining to bilateral security arrangements, an indication of the importance that US President George W. Bush places on the bilateral alliance. The move could spark debate in Japan over the right to collective defense, which the Japanese government maintains is banned by the Constitution.
“Japanese-US Security Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, Japan)


5. Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori hailed the signing of the Irkutsk Declaration between Japan and Russia, saying it “could be a great starting point for a peace treaty between the two countries.”
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, Japan)


6. Japanese Politics

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Makoto Koga quoted Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori as saying that he will quit as head of the LDP in the middle of his term. The Daily Yomiuri reported that almost 77 percent of eligible voters polled said that Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori should officially announce his resignation and that his Cabinet should resign en masse. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party began preparations to hold elections on April 24 for a new party president to replace Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.
“Japanese Prime Minister” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)
“Japanese Politics” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 2, Japan)
“Japanese Politics” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 5, US)


Russia


1. PRC-Russian Friendship Treaty

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said that Russia and the PRC plan to sign a new friendship treaty during PRC President Jiang Zemin’s visit to Moscow this summer.
“PRC-Russian Friendship Treaty” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, US)


2. Military Reform in Russia

Newly appointed Defense Minister Ivanov made remarks on Russian military reform when interviewed by the Times Program of the Russian Public TV Station on March 31. He pointed out that Russia should develop national strategic nuclear weapons and conventional armed forces with due consideration of balance.
“Military Reform in Russia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 4, PRC)


South Asia


1. India Missile Program

India’s attempt to enter the elite space club suffered when a launch of the Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV-D1) by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) was aborted. If India is successful at a later time with this space launch, it will indicate an ability to develop long-range ballistic missiles.
“India Space Launch Failure” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)
“Indian Launch Vehicle Failure” (NPP Weekly Flash Vol. 3 #13)

India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) successfully test fired the Prithvi medium-range missile from a mobile platform. India will likely procure from Russia an electro-optical seeker warhead, a variant on the guidance systems developed for the Scud missile.
“Missile Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


2. Indian Defense Scandal

Former Defense Minister George Fernandes stated that the degree to which the Indian Army was compromised from within by defense procurement kickbacks without notice by the intelligence services represents an intelligence failure.
“Security” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


3. Pakistan Nuclear Program

Abdul Qadeer Khan, who founded Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program after the 1974 Indian nuclear test, stepped down as chairman of the Khan Research Laboratories. Acting PML party president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi cited the elevation of Abdul Qadeer Khan to minister rank as evidence of an intention to rollback the country’s nuclear program.
“Pakistan Nuclear Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


4. India-Pakistan Relations

Indian Chief Minister Radhabinood Koijam stated that the government may not extend further the unilateral ceasefire against militant groups in Kashmir. Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani stated that India would soon hold talks with leaders in Kashmir, but ruled out a separate dialogue with Pakistan at this time.
“Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)

A report by India’s External Affairs Ministry stated that Pakistan had increased its support for cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and had sought to erode the unilateral ceasefire through an escalation of violence.
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)

A Pakistan Foreign Office press statement urged India to stop firing and to halt the construction of a fence along the working boundary between Kashmir and Pakistan.
“Border Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


5. Commentary on India-US Relations

C. Raja Mohan writes that India intends to use a US-led coalition of powers in South Asia to prevent the domination of regional waterways by the PRC. Mohan also argues that the US could play a larger role in the political stability and energy integration of South Asia and the Gulf states.
“Commentary on India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


Nuclear Weapons


1. Swedish Nuclear Program

A recent report said that between 1945 and 1968, the Swedish National Defense Research Establishment (FOA) did extensive research into the production of nuclear weapons and had the plutonium and know-how to become a nuclear power until 1970.
“Swedish Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


2. Indian Nuclear Policy

The Pioneer reported that the Indian Government “will actively” consider a proposal from the Tri-Services Chiefs of Staff Committee to create a strategic nuclear force under a single commander.
“Indian Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


Proliferation


1. Proliferation Issues in South Asia

Germany’s Verfassungsschutz intelligence agency reported that Pakistan and India are among those countries seeking to acquire from Germany components or technology for producing weapons of mass destruction and missiles.
“Proliferation Issues in South Asia” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


2. US Nonproliferation Programs in Russia

A senior administration official, referring to a review of the roughly $800 million a year the US spends to help Russia reduce its nuclear forces and improve security over its nuclear materials, stated that programs deemed ineffective will likely be cut. Howard Baker told the US Senate Foreign Relations committee that there are “all sorts of arguments about why our programs are not totally cost-efficient in Russia,” but, “If we don’t do it, no one will — not even the Russians.” Republican US Senator Pete Domenici said, “Russia’s nuclear stockpile is the most serious national security threat we face today.”
“US Nonproliferation Programs in Russia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


Arms Control


1. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Oliver Meier writes in an essay for BASIC that there remains much to be resolved on the future of the verification system for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms called on the Bush administration to repudiate CTBT and lay out a new policy for testing US nuclear weapons.
“Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


2. Missile Control Technology Regime

The ROK’s entry to the Missile Technology Control Regime was approved, coming after an agreement with the US to allow the ROK to develop missiles with a range of greater than 187 miles.
“ROK Entry Into Missile Control Technology Regime” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


Missile Defense


1. Russian MD Proposal

Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined a plan to share the S-300 anti-missile system and its subsequent models with the European members of NATO to provide a territorial missile defense against attack from “rogue states.” General Leonid Ivashov, of the Russian Defense Ministry, dismissed criticism of Russia’s missile defense proposal, and stated that the thrust of the proposal was to find peaceful means to counter a threat from a rogue state armed with ballistic missiles.
“Russian MD Proposal” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)


2. US Consultations on Missile Defense

In a news conference with French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the US missile defense program would protect both the US and its allies. US President George Bush said he has assured allies of the United States “that we will consult with them” on US plans for missile defense, “But we’re moving forward to develop systems that reflect the threats of today.” Bush and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder met and said that there was agreement on many issues, with the exception of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming. Schroeder also said he questioned Bush’s plan for a missile defense shield.
“US Consultations on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)
“US-German Talks on MD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)

Debate grew in Canada over the US missile defense program, with some favoring to support it now and others preferring to wait on a decision until asked by the US to participate.
“Canadian Perspective on MD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)

The DPRK’s official Korean Central News Agency accused the US and Japan of boosting joint development of the proposed US anti-missile defense system, saying that could push the DPRK to respond with force.
“DPRK Perspective on US-Japan MD Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)

An editorial by K. Shankar Bajpai argues that while other countries may negotiate with the US over its proposed missile defense program, the PRC’s inevitable missile buildup will increase India’s problems.
“Commentary on India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #14)


3. US MD Tests

US Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral Craig Quigley said that the next intercept test of the missile defense system, patterned after one that failed last July, will take place in early to mid-summer.
“NMD Tests” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #13)

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