Korean Peninsula
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1. Clinton’s Visit to DPRK
US President Bill Clinton announced that he will not visit the DPRK before the end of his term. In a written statement, Clinton said that while he believes that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il is committed to reaching such an accord, “I have determined that there is not enough time while I am president to prepare the way for an agreement with North Korea that advances our national interest and provides the basis for a trip by me to Pyongyang.” While administration officials said they were close to a deal, analysts stated that the deal may not have been a sound one.
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
The ROK was disappointed over outgoing US President Bill Clinton’s decision not to visit the DPRK. The ROK is also cautious under the belief that the incoming Bush administration will likely apply a more strict set of reciprocity principles.
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, January 3, ROK)
A PRC commentary stated that it is not surprising that outgoing US President Bill Clinton will not visit the DPRK because there is no missile deal, because Clinton is focusing on the Middle East, and because Clinton does not expect his DPRK policy to be supported by the administration of President-elect George W. Bush.
“PRC View on Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, January 2, PRC) |
2. Future US-DPRK Relations
Few ROK experts believe the Bush administration will drastically change DPRK policy, but most expect some slowdown in US rapprochement with the DPRK.
“US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, January 2, US) |
3. US Military in Korea
The DPRK reported that the US made about 150 aerial reconnaissance missions across its territory last month, including 40 aerial scouts made by U-2 and RC-135 strategic planes and ten each by EH-60 helicopters, P-3 patrol aircraft and E-3 commanding ship.
“Alleged US Reconnaissance on DPRK” (Daily Report, January 2, ROK)
The US and the ROK agreed on new rules in the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that give the ROK government broader jurisdiction over US soldiers accused of crimes while stationed in the ROK.
“US-ROK SOFA Revision” (Daily Report, January 2, US) |
4. Future DPRK Policy
A DPRK editorial said the country’s objectives for the next year included economic development, consolidating the existing economic infrastructure, refashioning the national economy with up-to-date technology, and strengthening the military. Radio Pyongyang, the official media outlet, said in a commentary that the people of the DPRK would unite in spirit next year to make the 21st century as the “century of General Kim Jong-il.”
“DPRK Goals for New Year” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
“DPRK Goals for New Year” (Daily Report, January 2, ROK)
“DPRK’s New Year Message” (Daily Report, January 3, ROK) |
5. Future ROK Policy
The Korea Herald reported that the ROK focused its diplomatic efforts on the four major regional powers during the past one year to help strengthen reconciliation and cooperation between the ROK and the DPRK.
“ROK Foreign Policy” (Daily Report, January 2, ROK)
The ROK promised this year to further improve ties with the DPRK while keeping a strong security posture against a possible military threat.
“ROK Goals for New Year” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
The Joongang Ilbo reported that a survey showed that while a majority of ROK citizens support the engagement policy toward the DPRK, many feel that the government is letting the DPRK call the tune in negotiations.
“Survey on Inter-Korean Relations” (Daily Report, January 4, ROK) |
6. DPRK Humanitarian Issues
The ROK Unification Ministry announced that the DPRK’s population is estimated to be 22,000,000, based on a 1994 estimation of 21,210,000 persons.
“DPRK Population” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan)
Private organizations made record level of aids to the DPRK last year, totaling 42.07 billion won, including the 11.32 billion won through the ROK National Red Cross. The ROK more than doubled its aid to the DPRK to USD$114 million last year, up from USD$47 million in 1999. A cargo ship left the ROK for the DPRK on Wednesday with the first shipment of private ROK aid goods this year.
“ROK Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, January 2, ROK)
“ROK Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, January 4, US)
“ROK Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, January 3, US) |
China
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1. Future PRC Policy
PRC President Jiang Zemin, in his New Year’s message, stressed peace and development in the new century. He pointed out that the primary tasks of the Chinese people in the new millennium are to push ahead with the modernization of the country, achieve the reunification of the motherland and safeguard world peace, and make progress with other countries.
“PRC Goals for New Century” (Daily Report, January 2, PRC) |
2. PRC-US Future Relations
The PRC government has refrained from making any objections before Bush takes power, but leading experts with government connections are wary of President-elect George W. Bush’s impact on US defense policy toward the PRC.
“PRC View of Bush Defense Policy” (Daily Report, January 5, US)
Taiwanese military officials noted that the Sovremenny-class destroyers purchased by the PRC from Russia are capable of intercepting US warships sent to protect Taiwan. Analysts are speculating about the future of maritime security should the US presence in Asia decline.
“PRC Navy” (Daily Report, January 5, US) |
3. PRC-Taiwan ‘Mini-Links’
The PRC indicated that it would go along with Taiwan’s plan to open two offshore islands to goods and passengers from the mainland and allow island residents to travel directly to the PRC. PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue announced that the PRC will not block Taiwan’s move, but she and other PRC officials criticized the plan as a piecemeal measure. Taiwanese analysts said that tensions across the Taiwan Strait are unlikely to decline significantly until Taiwan embraces the “one-China” rhetoric. US analysts do not believe that the new “mini-links” will satisfy the PRC, which will continue to pressure Taiwan to accept the “One China” principle, but the US government expressed support for this move.
“PRC-Taiwan Trade Links” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
“Taiwanese Views of ‘Mini-Links'” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
“US Views of ‘Mini-Links'” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
“Cross-Straits ‘Mini-Links'” (Daily Report, January 3, US) |
4. Cross-Strait Relations
A group of 46 parliamentarians from Taiwan’s two major opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the New Party, flew to Beijing on Thursday to study the possibilities of unrestricted direct links between Taiwan and the PRC.
“PRC-Taiwan Links” (Daily Report, January 4, US)
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian on December 31 delivered a call for closer economic and cultural ties with the PRC, but reiterated his opposition to reunification on PRC terms.
“Cross-Strait Relations” (Daily Report, January 2, US)
PRC Deputy Prime Minister Qian Qichen signaled in an interview on January 4 that the PRC is willing to be more flexible on Taiwan and urged the incoming US Bush administration not to view the PRC as a “strategic competitor.” Douglas Paal, president of the Asia Pacific Policy Center and a member of the National Security Council in the last Bush administration, said Qian’s comments were “sending signals that they are prepared to work with the administration and not make unreasonable demands.”
“PRC Policy toward Taiwan” (Daily Report, January 5, US) |
Japan
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1. Japanese Policy toward DPRK
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori said he placed normalization with the DPRK as Japan’s first diplomatic priority for 2001. The report also said that Mori hailed and Germany’s normalization of their diplomatic relations with the DPRK.
“Japanese Policy toward DPRK” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan)
Japan’s Financial Reconstruction Commission declared that Chogin Kinki Shinyo Kumiai, the nation’s largest pro-DPRK credit union, is insolvent under the Financial Revitalization Law.
“Pro-DPRK Credit Union in Japan” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan)
The DPRK accused Japan of pushing ahead with a policy of militarization and said that Japanese forces had emerged as the greatest threat to the country’s security. The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) report said that Japan embarked last year on a policy which aims to turn its “peace constitution” into a “war constitution” and that together with the US it planned to increase its military presence in the region in order to “counter North Korea.”
“DPRK-Japan Relations” (Daily Report, January 5, US) |
2. Japan-US Relations
Japanese Ambassador to the US Shunji Yanai visited President-elect George W. Bush’s designated Secretary of State Colin Powell to confirm strengthening the Japanese-US alliance.
“Japanese-US Security Relations” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan)
A recent Yomiuri Shimbun-Gallup poll shows that about 64 percent of US citizens see relations between Japan and the United States at present as being good, compared with about 47 percent of Japanese who think the same way. 62 percent of Japanese said that the Japan-US security agreement contributes to the security of the Asian-Pacific region, and 80 percent of respondents in the US agreed. People were also asked about the future relative political and economic importance of US, Japan and the PRC.
“Poll on Japanese-US Relations” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan)
“Japanese-US Poll on US, PRC and Japan” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan) |
3. Japanese Intelligence Satellites
The Japanese government decided to further develop a satellite information center within the Cabinet in preparation for the introduction of four intelligence satellites to be launched by 2002.
“Japanese Intelligent Satellites” (Daily Report, January 2, Japan) |
Russia
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1. Russia-PRC Strategic Relations
A commentary by Evan A. Feigenbaum, executive director of the Asia-Pacific Security Initiative at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, stated that a new poll released this week reveals that a majority of Russian elites view the PRC as a more reliable partner than the US.
“PRC-Russian Strategic Cooperation” (Daily Report, January 2, US) |
Nuclear Issues
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1. Russian Nuclear Deployments
The Russian Military News Agency reported that the third regiment of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces’ RS-12M2 Topol-M silo-based missiles became operational. Alexander Pikayev, a nonproliferation and arms control specialist at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said that the reduced deployment, six missiles compared to ten each in 1998 and 1999, marks a possible shift from a nuclear deterrent force toward conventional forces.
“Russian Missile Deployment” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1)
Bill Gertz reported in the Washington Times that Russia is moving unknown types of tactical nuclear weapons into the Baltic Sea port of Kaliningrad, a major military base for Russian ground forces and headquarters of the Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet. There is much speculation as to the veracity of the reports and the goal of the deployment if the reports are true.
“Russian Tactical Nuke Deployment” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1) |
2. French Nuclear Program
The French defense ministry said it had signed a US$215 million contract with Aerospatiale Matra Missiles, a subsidiary of the European aerospace group EADS, for the initial development and purchase of medium-range nuclear missiles to be carried by Mirage 2000 and Super-Etendard strike aircraft.
“French Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1) |
3. India Nuclear Policy
Although the Indian government has repeatedly stated that it won’t be the first nation to use nuclear weapons, India’s air force, in an internal document, advocates the creation of a Nuclear Air Command that would wield a “first strike capability,” according to an Indian defense official.
“India Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1) |
4. India-Pakistan Nuclear List Exchange
India and Pakistan exchanged lists of their nuclear sites as part of an annual practice following an agreement signed by the two countries prohibiting attacks on each other’s nuclear installations. The first lists were exchanged in January 1992, and have been exchanged every year since.
“Nuclear List Exchange” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“South Asia Nuclear Lists” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1) |
Missile Defense
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1. Rumsfeld Nomination
Donald Rumsfeld, a former Secretary of Defense in the Ford administration, has been selected by President-elect George W. Bush to serve as his Secretary of Defense. In statements immediately following his nomination, Rumsfeld made clear he considered the US to be increasingly vulnerable to ballistic missile attack from countries including the DPRK, Iran and Iraq. Analysts are reporting that Rumsfeld’s nomination will put pressure upon Russia, and upon arms control efforts.
“Rumsfeld Nomination” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1) |
2. Russia-US Talks
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Russia was not ready to agree to a proposed US NMD system supported by US President-elect George W. Bush but said that Russia would keep talking with the US on despite disagreements and would aim for a ”serious dialogue” with the new US administration.
“Russia-US Talks” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #1) |
3. Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
Jiefang Daily carried a survey article on arms control and nonproliferation in 2000 by Dr. Shen, a professor of Fudan University. Shen pointed out positive developments in 2000 in the arms control and nonproliferation area, but concluded that much of the future depends upon the further developments regarding National Missile Defense.
“Arms Control and Non-Proliferation” (Daily Report, January 2, PRC) |
South Asia
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1. India Ceasefire
Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee stated that the Ramazan ceasefire would be extended by one month and would be reexamined again after January 26. Vajpayee also said that India would begin “exploratory steps” towards talks with Pakistan. Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar stated that Pakistan would not insist on participating in talks on the Kashmir issue in the initial stage. Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani stated that talks with groups in Jammu and Kashmir would include many besides the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference, that talks would be held between the National Democratic Alliance government and the National Conference before the government moved forward to talks with militant groups, and that the government would examine Pakistani behavior during the ceasefire before agreeing to talks with Pakistan.
“Ceasefire Extension” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“Dialogue Prospects” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1)
“Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1)
Responding to Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee’s extension of the unilateral ceasefire, several militant leaders stated independently that they welcomed the extension of the ceasefire, but that it needed to move towards a resolution of the Kashmir issue. The Indian government cleared passports for six of the seven All-Parties Hurriyat Conference executive members, with only Muslim League Syed Ali Shah Geelani being denied a passport. The APHC team will travel to Pakistan to hold talks with the government and militant groups.
“Ceasefire: Militant Groups” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“APHC Visit to Pakistan” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“APHC Visit to Pakistan” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1) |
2. Terrorism
The Lashkar-e-Taba claimed responsibility for an attack upon India’s historic Red Fort. The Red Fort garrisons 1,000 soldiers of the Rajputana Rifle battalion, but part is open during the daytime for tourists. A series of four bombs exploded in Pakistan, and Pakistani police blamed India for the explosions, arguing that the bombs were in retaliation for the recent attack upon India’s Red Fort.
“Domestic Security Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“Terrorism” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1) |
3. Pakistan Troop Withdrawal
Pakistan’s Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR) bureau released a statement that announced a unilateral cut in troops along the Line of Control. The statement also said that the withdrawal had already begun. Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes and Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah independently stated that Pakistan has not begun to withdraw its troops from along the Line of Control, contradicting Pakistani claims otherwise.
“Troop Withdrawal” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1) |
4. Indian Military Hardware
India and Russia signed a deal worth more than US$3 billion for the production of 140 Sukhoi Su-30MKI multi-role jets in India. Israel has suspended negotiations with India over the sale of the Phalcon radar system because of the change of the US presidency. India announced that its Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), an indigenously developed multi-role fighter plane, is ready for test flights.
“Military Hardware” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1) |
5. Pakistan Local Elections
Eighteen districts held local elections in Pakistan for seats in municipal and district councils, and elections in the rest of the 106 districts will be staggered over the next several months.
“Local Elections” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1) |
6. Sri Lankan Ceasefires
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam official website stated that the LTTE had ordered its troops to observe a one-month unilateral ceasefire beginning December 24, 2000 at midnight. The Sri Lankan government has rejected the ceasefire. The Sri Lankan Army renewed its offensive in Jaffna, with 76 reported dead within hours of the LTTE’s announced ceasefire. The Sri Lankan Army announced a one-day ceasefire for Christmas, purportedly unrelated to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) unilateral ceasefire. Sri Lankan troops retook the Navatkuli bridge, a key link between Jaffna and Chavakachcheri.
“LTTE Ceasefire Offer” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“Military Actions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #49)
“Government Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1)
“Military Actions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #1)
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