NAPSNET Week in Review 31 August, 2001

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Korea


1. DPRK-PRC Talks

The PRC and the DPRK announced on August 27 that PRC President Jiang Zemin will pay an “official goodwill visit” to the DPRK from September 3-5 at the invitation of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. No agenda details were provided. Diplomatic sources said, however, that the two leaders are likely to focus on cementing bilateral ties, their cooperation in countering the US missile defense plan and issues regarding security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. DPRK leader Kim Jong-il will inform his preparations for an ROK visit during his summit meeting with PRC President Jiang Zemin next week.
“DPRK-PRC Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, ROK)
“DPRK-PRC Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, ROK)
“Jiang Zemin’s DPRK Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)
“Jiang Zemin’s DPRK Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, ROK)


2. DPRK Famine and Food Aid

Catherine Bertini, executive director of the UN World Food Program said the present situation in the DPRK was improving. Asked whether the argument that all food aid should be stopped because it is enabling DPRK leader Kim Jong Il’s regime and preventing the kind of change that will ultimately be necessary to fix the DPRK, Bertini said, “People would starve to death because we don’t like the government? That’s an immoral position.” She noted that there was an immense difference in terms of the health of the children especially since 1997.
“DPRK Famine and Food Aid ” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 30, US)

The DPRK’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Wednesday that UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director- General Jacques Diouf met with Kim Yong-nam, president of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly, and vice foreign minister Choe Su-hon on August 27. KCNA gave no details of Diouf’s talks.
“DPRK Famine” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, ROK)

The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) and Children’s Fund (UNICEF) will conduct a joint nationwide nutrition survey of DPRK children next year. Catherine Bertini, the head of the WFP, said that she reached an agreement with senior DPRK officials on the survey plan during her visit to the DPRK August 18- 21. She said the aim of the survey is to assess the health of the children in the DPRK and to improve their monitoring system of food distribution.
“UN Nutrition Survey in DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 28, ROK)


3. Inter-Korean Relations

The Headquarters for the Promotion of the 2001 Joint Events of the Nation for Implementing the ROK-DPRK Joint Declaration based in the ROK suggested the dates September 12-14 for holding inter-Korean working level talks. The Headquarters said an appropriate location will be chosen later.
“ROK -DPRK Civic Group Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, ROK)

The DPRK Korea Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation (KCRC) proposed holding the inter-Korean working-level talks initially agreed upon at the controversial August 15 joint festival held in Pyongyang. KCRC said in a statement released on August 28 that it acknowledged the importance of holding succeeding inter-Korean talks and “the sooner the better.”
“Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 30, ROK)

The DPRK’s use of a major tributary of the Han River for hydroelectric power affects the amount of water available to the ROK. Kim Chang-ho, an ROK engineer at a hydroelectric plant near Hwachon Dam, said that the DPRK “shut and open their dam according to their own convenience.” According to the ROK Ministry of Construction and Transportation, the amount of water flowing annually into Hwachon Dam has dropped by 12 percent to 2.6-billion tons since 1996. However, the ministry said that the loss has not affected electricity and drinking-water supplies to areas as far south as Seoul.
“ROK-DPRK Water Rights” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)


4. US-DPRK Relations

Georgi Toloraya, Deputy Director-General of the First Asian Department in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on August 28 that in order to see progress in the stalemate between the DPRK and the US, the US must first guarantee the safety of the DPRK. Toloraya said in an international seminar on the DPRK economy, “North Korea wants to hold dialogue with the US in equal terms. The change the North went through for past few years was more than that was made for last five decades but it is the U.S. that holds a key to which direction the North will choose. Chairman Kim wants to improve relations with the international society including the US”
“Russian View on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 30, ROK)

Experts at a two-day conference on “North Korea in the World Economy” that ended on August 27 argued that the US should do more to restart talks with the DPRK. Former US Ambassador to the ROK Donald Gregg said that this was an extraordinary juncture in Northeast Asia” because of the shared regional concern over developments in the DPRK. He argued that the US President George W. Bush administration should separate its DPRK policy from its interest in pursuing a national missile defense (NMD). He also suggested dropping the term “rogue state” and ending the practice of lumping the DPRK in with Iraq. Deputy Director-General of the first Asian department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Georgi Toloraya said that he believed the DPRK had changed more in the past two years than it had over the past half-century. Toloraya, who traveled with Kim Jong-il on his recent train journey around Russia, said that he was convinced Kim wanted dialogue and cooperation as an equal.
“US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, US)

The DPRK Central Television News said on August 26 that clearing away the hostility and opening diplomatic relations not only suit the interest of the DPRK and the US, but is also needed for establishing the peace and stability of the world. It said, “If the U.S. acknowledges our sovereign rights and show goodwill we would start developing relations with Washington under the term of fairness and reciprocity. If the US is truly seeking for peace and stability of Korean Peninsula and wish to improve ties with our nation it would first have to give up its overall scheme to isolate and crush down our nation as well as being a threat with its troops.” It added that the US is causing the situation to deteriorate with its talk about DPRK missile threats, US-ROK military cooperation, and branding the DPRK as the main enemy.
“DPRK Relations with US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 28, ROK)


5. US Policy toward DPRK

Despite retracting his statements on resumption of US dialogue with the DPRK during ROK President Kim Dae-jung’s visit to Washington, US Secretary of State olin Powell’s position is now the official one of the US government. An unnamed State Department official stated, “Though he didn’t initially prevail, he didn’t give up…. We had an opportunity to voice our views and — voila, we’re at the point where our opinion is the accepted viewpoint.” The article said that US Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage built momentum for a resumption of dialogue during a visit to Seoul in early May, and James A. Kelly Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, further promoted that view as head of a Korea policy review committee.
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)


6. Trilateral Coordination Meeting

The Japanese foreign ministry said on August 31 that senior US officials from Japan, the ROK, and the US will meet September 6 in Tokyo to discuss its policy toward the Korean peninsula. A visit to Russia by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il earlier this month will also be among the topics likely to be discussed.
“Trilateral Coordination Meeting” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, US)


7. US-ROK Military Exercises

Ten thousand US troops are taking part in the annual “Ulchi Focus Lens” joint exercise with the ROK, which ends August 31. The exercises involve computer simulation such as moving supplies northward and fighting off a DPRK invasion. Computer operators at Camp Casey simulate an invasion using a battle plan that is partly independent from that of the defenders.
“US-ROK Military Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)


8. ROK-Japan Relations

The Kyodo News said that the Japanese government announced August 28 that Japan and the ROK will conduct a large-scale occupational and cultural exchange program in Seoul September 10 to help improve bilateral relations. Tadahiro Matsushita, a senior vice minister in the Cabinet Office, said that about 4,000 private-sector people from the two countries will participate in the exchange program. ROK President Kim Dae-jung will address the audience during the program.
“ROK-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, ROK)


9. ROK Fighter Program

ROK defense experts said on August 26 that the ROK government is likely to further delay its announcement of the winning bidder and model for its next- generation fighter project. An anonymous expert stated, “Given the tight schedule for the selection of the successful bidder and model, it seems inevitable that the Seoul government will postpone the announcement of the winning bidder for another two months until November.” He added, “The military evaluation team is known to have just completed its final price negotiations with all the foreign bidders last week and is expected to reach its final conclusion on the matter around early or mid- September. Based on the negotiation results, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) then has to produce a cost-to-effect analysis report, which is expected to take at least six weeks. Then the National Security Council will review the result, which will go to President Kim Dae-jung for final approval around November, at the earliest.”
“ROK Fighter Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, ROK)


China


1. PRC Missile Deployment

Singapore Straits Times (“CHINESE SUBS SCORE 3 MISSILE HITS IN WAR GAMES,” Hong Kong, 8/29/01) reported that the PRC scored three successful hits recently with its submarine-launched Julang-21A missiles fired at targets 5,000 kilometers away. The missiles were fired simultaneously from PRC submarines as part of the recent war games centered at Dongshan Island, off Fujian province. According to the Defence Weekly, navy vessels involved in the exercises also test-fired for the first time the Hongniao-2 cruise missiles, which can reach 1,000 km in range. Meanwhile, advanced airborne warning and control system aircraft and airborne refuelling planes were also deployed during the exercise. The maneuvers were the largest the PLA has ever conducted in terms of scale, duration, numbers of personnel and advanced weaponry deployed in recent decades. [Ed. note: This article appeared in the US Department of Defense’s Early Bird news service for August 31, 2001.]
“PRC Missile Tests” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, US)

The PRC has stepped up deployments of short range missiles opposite Taiwan and now has more than 350 rockets within range of the island. The article quoted unnamed US intelligence and military officials as saying that new missile deployments were discovered by US intelligence agencies at Yongan, in Fujian province, and at Jiangshan. An unnamed senior Defense Department official stated, “They are on track with adding 50 new missiles a year.” US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said that the missile buildup is destabilizing. A senior White House official said that the PRC military will deploy a total of around 600 missiles by 2005.
“PRC Missile Deployment” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 28, US)


2. Cross-Strait Relations

Reuters (“CHINA FIRM ON CONDITIONS FOR TAIWAN TRADE LINKS,” Beijing, 8/29/01) reported that in response to a proposal by a Taiwan government urging talks on opening direct commercial ties, the PRC ruled out direct trade links with Taiwan on August 29 unless the island embraced its “one China” principle. The PRC’s official Xinhua news agency said the “one China” principle was not negotiable.
“Cross-Strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, US)

Raymond Burghardt, Director of the American Institute on Taiwan (AIT), told the American Chamber of Commerce on August 27 that he backed Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s views on the so-called “92 consensus.” Burghardt said that before the 1992 talks began, each side exchanged faxes, which had common language in some areas and differing views in others. Philip Yang, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said that Burghardt’s outspokenness was unusual for an AIT director, and would help Chen resist pressure from the opposition. Yang added, “It might also help him to get Washington to advise Beijing to separate economics and politics.”
“US-Taiwan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 28, US)

Liao Tsang-lung, a section chief at Taiwan’s state-run Chinese Petroleum Corporation, said on August 27 that Taiwan and the PRC may be close to signing a contract for joint oil exploration in the Taiwan Strait. Liao said that the company is expected to finalize a feasibility study on the exploration project soon and submit it to the Cabinet for approval. Xiao Weidong, a spokesman for China National Offshore Oil Company, the PRC’s third- largest oil producer, also confirmed that a deal was being discussed. Xiao said that Taiwan was supposed to pay for the exploration, since the potential reserves of oil and gas were owned by the PRC.
“Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 28, US)

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian on August 26 accepted the advice of a panel of economic advisers to boost economic ties with the PRC. The group urged Chen to relax limits on how much Taiwanese can invest in the PRC, to let Taiwanese banks set up branches in the PRC, and to ease restrictions on PRC investments in Taiwan. Chen said that his government would spend the next two weeks figuring out how to implement the suggestions. Taiwan’s top PRC policy-maker, Tsai Ing- wen, said that the policy was “a significant step forward” toward trying to improve relations with the PRC.
“Cross-Straits Economic Relations ” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)


3. PRC-Japan Relations

PRC ambassador to Japan Wu Dawei said Friday that Japan’s relations with the PRC are at their worst in 30 years. Wu said both sides must create an atmosphere for fostering better ties, but urged Japan to take the initiative. Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Shinichi Iida said, “Under present circumstances, the ‘proper environment’, as the Chinese call it, has not been achieved yet.”
“PRC-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, US)


4. Sino-US Relations

US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in an interview with the Washington Times that the PRC is “almost certain” to become a superpower this century and could emerge as a threat to the US. He said that the question is whether the emerging PRC will live at peace with its neighbors “or will it go the way of traditional power diplomacy, which I think in this era with these weapons would be tragic mistake for everybody.” Wolfowitz said he did not think the PRC has to be a threat, but felt the US should also not be complacent. Regarding Taiwan, Wolfowitz noted that US President George W. Bush and US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld have been “very clear” that the US will defend Taiwan from PRC attack and the people of the US are behind this as well.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, US)

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on August 24 that the bilateral consultations on nonproliferation between the US and the PRC on August 23 was beneficial and constructive. Zhu said the counter-proliferation experts from the US and PRC exchanged views on the issues of counter-proliferation and space launching cooperation and made necessary declarations on issues of common concern. The PRC side stressed that the PRC Government has always adopted the serious and responsible positions on nonproliferation issues, and has strictly abided by relevant policies. He said, that the PRC Government urged the US to implement the policy it declared on November of last year and take actions as soon as possible to facilitate the space-launching cooperation between the US and PRC.
“PRC-US Counter-proliferation Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 28, US)

US and PRC military officials will meet September 13 and 14 on Guam to discuss ways to avoid maritime incidents. The US delegation to the talks will be led by Rear Admiral Stephen Smith, chief of operations for the US Pacific Command. US Defense Department spokesman Navy Lieutenant Commander Jeff Davis said Friday, “We view this meeting as an important step in working past the EP-3 incident. It will provide a proper forum for both sides to discuss the important issue of future incidents.”
“US-PRC Maritime Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)


5. PRC-Russia Relations

The “Namakon” Analytical Center released an article entitled “The Other Side of the Chinese Card” which claims that there are “hawks” and “doves” in the US. The hawks (represented for example, by Thomas Graham, recently promoted to a high position in US State Department) insist on confrontation with the PRC and turn the RF into a junior ally. The doves (represented for example, by Henry Kissinger) who urges the US to carry out a “soft” division of the world into spheres of influence and to actually restore a bipolar world order with the US and the PRC as its poles. In the authors’ opinion, “China today is both a promising partner and a potential adversary to Russia. China is important for Russia economically, however Russia should not see the PRC as a market capable of absorbing products that are non-competitive in Europe and the US. The authors concluded that the PRC “does not need alliances and by no means will agree with Moscow’s leadership. Most probably Russia will not enjoy super- favorable conditions in the Russia-China-US triangle. China will play on US-RF contradictions.”
“RF-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, US)


Japan


1. Japanese Prime Minister’s Tour of Asia

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is planning a four- nation tour of Southeast Asia in September in an effort to repair relations strained by his visit to a Japanese war shrine. Another initiative by Koizumi to meet leaders of the PRC and the ROK, ahead of a larger Pacific nations summit in October, received a cool response. ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo told the Parliament that Japan must agree to reiterate a 1998 apology for its wartime behavior before Koizumi could meet ROK President Kim Dae-jung.
“Japanese Prime Minister’s Tour of Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 30, US)


2. Japanese Rocket Launch

Japan successfully launched its first H2- A rocket on Wednesday. The National Space Development Agency launched the rocket three hours later than scheduled because of a malfunction in a device designed to indicate whether a pipe to the rocket’s fuel tank was connected properly. The rocket is designed to carry a 4- ton satellite, but during the test only carried a 3-ton sphere and equipment to monitor and record the rocket’s flight systems. Japanese space officials said that it rivals rockets built in Europe and the US, and are working on a special rocket booster that would allow the H2-A to carry a 7.5-ton payload into orbit within two years.
“Japanese Rocket Launch” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 29, US)


3. ROK, PRC Relations with Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s spokesman Tsutomu Himeno said on August 27 that Koizumi hopes to meet with ROK and PRC leaders to ease anger over his visit earlier this month to the Yakusuni Shrine. However, foreign and Japanese diplomats said that the leaders of the PRC and the ROK have turned down requests for meetings with Koizumi. An unnamed top Japanese Foreign Ministry official stated, “My sense is that this is really a very, very bad situation. Usually your diplomats will scramble to try to find some way to get things back on track. This time they’re at a loss.”
“ROK, PRC Relations with Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 27, US)


South Asia


1. India Security Policies

Ambassador Dev Mukherji, speaking in Nepal, said India will help Nepal monitor Maoist insurgents, while Nepal will not be a base for Pakistan’s “terrorist” activities. Meanwhile, Palestine President Yasser Arafat met with Indian Prime Minister A B Vajpayee in New Delhi and reportedly sought India’s support for resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.
“India Security Policies” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #35)


2. Pakistan-India Relations

An editorial in The Organizer discusses the positive international reaction India has received following the Vajpayee government’s “fresh peace initiative” in inviting Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf for talks. “Editorial: Courageous move”
“Pakistan-India Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #35)


3. India Arms Acquisitions

India reportedly has carried out a successful test of the first indigenously upgraded MiG-21-93 fighter aircraft. The News reported that Indian MPs have urged Prime Minister Vajpayee not to allow further delay of plans to buy military jet trainers.
“India Arms Acquisitions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #35)


4. India-Pakistan Relations

Pakistan reportedly has conveyed President Pervez Musharraf’s desire to meet with Indian Prime Minister A B Vajpayee on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York next month. Meanwhile, Pakistan Commerce Minister Abdul Razzak Dawood reportedly stated that trade between India and Pakistan is unlikely to grow significantly until political relations improve.
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #35)


5. US-Pakistan Relations

The Dawn quoted Peter Rodman, US assistant secretary of defense for international affairs, as stating that the United States will not “lose sight” of its “valuable” relationship with Pakistan. “Pakistan has been an ally over many decades,” Rodman stated, adding that “India is not going to become an ally of the United States.” Shireen M Mazari, Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, writes that the emerging “US-Israel-India relationship” challenges prospects for US-Pakistan relations. US goals, Mazari writes, are to circumscribe Pakistan’s nuclear capability and to “discredit Pakistan internationally so as to make it easier for the US to get its new ally India accepted as a major global power.”
“US-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #35)


6. Kashmir Diplomacy

US Senator Robert G. Torricelli, a ranking member of US Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee, has stated that India should accept “international assistance in resolving the Kashmir problem.” United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan reportedly would prefer to see the Kashmir problem solved through bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan. The Azad Jammu & Kashmir Council, presided over by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, rejected Indian efforts to initiate a “political process” in Kashmir. ” The All Parties Hurriyat Conference said it will seek to involve itself in negotiations over Kashmir if Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and Pakistan President Musharraf meet and make progress in New York.
“Diplomacy”(SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #35)


Security


1. Global Military Spending

Jayantha Dhanapala, UN Under-Secretary General for disarmament, said in a speech in Sydney, Australia, that global weapons purchases are rising again. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, global military spending last year reached US$800 billion. He said the biggest increases in spending were by developing nations and “Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia are two major sub regions of concern.” He also noted that the US alone was responsible for half of last year’s arms trades.

“Global Military Spending” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 30, US)


2. US Military Deployments in Asia

US Army Secretary Thomas E. White, Junior, said on August 30 that although no final decisions have been made, US troops might be redeployed from Europe to Asia to serve as a hedge against potential conflicts there, and weapons and combat equipment have already been shifted. Officials said military equipment have already been moved from several European sites, including in Germany and Italy, to depots in Asia that have been short of some weapons and gear, but the amount shifted was not disclosed. Derek Mitchell, an Asia specialist at the US Defense Department during the Clinton administration, said that, while US allies in the region rely on US military support, they would be made uneasy by any sign of a sizable US military buildup. White acknowledged that any repositioning of US forces would be a sensitive issue abroad and said the US would try hard to ease allies’ doubts. He said that if the US Bush administration does adopt a strategy more focused on Asia, “we’ll have to very deliberately engage NATO, obviously, and our alliance partners, both [in Europe] and in the Pacific.” White said he will not recommend moving any of the four brigades of combat troops – which number about 20,000 – now stationed in Europe to the Asian theater.

Officials and analysts in Hawaii, Guam and Taiwan said Friday that the US Army plan to move some combat weaponry and equipment from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region was welcomed. Japan and the ROK did not immediately react. Park Seon- sup, a researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analysis in the ROK, said the US shift in its global military strategy has been expected since the danger of a war in Europe has diminished, but a large-scale deployment of more US military equipment in the ROK could set back inter-Korean relations. Yang Chih-heng, a military expert with the private Taiwan Research Institute, said Taiwan would welcome any US move that would place the island under its shield of protection.
“US Military Deployments in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, US)


Ballistic Missile Defense


1. UN Views on US Missile Defense

UN Under-Secretary General Jayantha Dhanapala said on August 30 that the United Nations urged US President George W. Bush to keep his plans for a missile shield down on earth and to preserve outer space for peace. Dhanapala said a commission chartered by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had endorsed a view that the US should seek total domination of space, indicating that could be a future direction of US policy. Dhanapala also expressed more general reservations about Bush’s missile defense plans and his intention to withdraw from the ABM treaty. While UN member states had the freedom to decide on their own security arrangements, he said any abrogation of the treaty or multilateral push to build a missile shield could carry an “enormous cost.” He said the PRC has made it clear to him that that process would be accelerated its military modernization if the US went ahead. He also said he had taken note of a suggestion by Bush that the US would be willing to unilaterally slash its nuclear warheads as part of a missile shield plan, however, Dhanapala said the UN preferred multilateral treaties to unilateral promises for the simple reason that they were irreversible, and could be verified and legally enforced.
“UN Views on US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 31, US)

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