NAPSNET Week in Review 30 March, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 30 March, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, March 30, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-30-march-2001/

Korea


1. US Policy toward DPRK

The Los Angeles Times published an opinion piece by Michael Parks and Gregory F. Treverton, fellows at the Pacific Council on International Policy. The article said that the summit meeting between US President George W. Bush and ROK President Kim Dae-jung this month was “a diplomatic train wreck” and “should never have happened.” ROK analysts are describing the summit as an end to the most active phase of Kim’s sunshine policy, but an unnamed Western official who participated in the talks argued that agreement on Kim’s four main objectives had been “achieved before he even stepped off the plane.”
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, US)
“ROK View of US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Friday that the US was in no particular hurry to embrace the DPRK and would set its own timeframe for improving relations.
“US Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, ROK)

US Senator John F. Kerry stated that the US has no hope of reducing the DPRK’s missile threat unless it constructively engages the DPRK. Kerry argued, “…Delay — and Secretary Powell’s lukewarm endorsement of the agreed framework — could send a negative signal about the nature and direction of our policy.”
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, US)


2. Agreed Framework

Despite mounting calls among US Republicans for the replacing nuclear power plants to be provided to the DPRK with thermal stations, Chang Sun-sup, head of the Office of Planning for Light Water Reactor project, dismissed such a scheme as “unrealistic.”
“Agreed Framework” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, ROK)

The Washington Post reported that 207 construction workers have been brought to the DPRK from Uzbekistan to replace striking DPRK workers at the light-water reactor construction site. Several analysts commented on the future of the KEDO light-water reactor project.
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)


3. ROK Cabinet Reshuffle

ROK President Kim Dae-jung replaced nine out of 22 ministers on Monday. The ROK’s new security and foreign policy team of Defense Minister Kim Dong-shin and Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo said closer ties with the US administration is its policy priority. ROK aides said that President Kim’s decision to overhaul his foreign policy and security team is designed to keep the recent diplomatic controversies with the US from damaging his efforts to induce the DPRK to improve relations with both the ROK and the US.
“ROK Cabinet Reshuffle” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)
“ROK Cabinet Reshuffle” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, US)
“ROK Cabinet Reshuffle” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, ROK)


4. ROK-US Relations

Thomas C. Hubbard, the acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, has been selected as the new US ambassador to the ROK.
“New US Ambassador to ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, ROK)

The ROK Defense Ministry said Friday that the US and the ROK ended two days of talks Friday without agreement on sharing the cost of US troops stationed in the ROK.
“US Troops in ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, US)
“US Troops in ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, ROK)


5. US View of DPRK Threat

The DPRK’s Korean Central Broadcasting Station criticized the US for conducting a joint military exercise with the ROK, but refrained from criticizing the ROK. The KCNA also continued to accuse the US administration under President George W. Bush of attempting to block the reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
“ROK-US Joint Military Exercise” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, ROK)
“DPRK-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, ROK)

US General Thomas Schwartz, commander of the US forces in the ROK, told a congressional committee on March 27 that over the past year the military threat from the DPRK had increased, despite the continuing famine there.
“US View of DPRK Threat” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, US)
“US on DPRK Threat” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, ROK)

The DPRK’s ruling Workers Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun criticized the Bush administration on Tuesday for accusing the DPRK of posing a threat to the region.
“DPRK View of US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, US)


6. DPRK-EU Relations

The New York Times reported that the DPRK has sped up its diplomacy with a wide variety of countries in the recent weeks. Swedish Prime Minister Goeran Persson will lead a delegation to Seoul and Pyongyang for talks with the leaders of the DPRK and the ROK. Foreign Minister Anna Lindh stated, “It’s becoming clear that the new U.S. administration wants to take a more hard-line approach toward North Korea. That means that Europe must step in to help reduce tension between the two Koreas, not least because the outside world is so worried about North Korean missiles.” EU officials said Friday that the European Commission is preparing the possible establishment of diplomatic relations between the European Union (EU) and the DPRK.
“EU-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, US)
“DPRK-EU Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)
“DPRK-EU Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, US)

ROK foreign minister Han Seung-soo insisted Wednesday that the ROK had not asked the European Union to launch a Korean peninsula peace initiative, but added that the ROK still supports the move. The ROK government will file a protest with the Washington Post over its recent report that President Kim Dae-jung asked the European Union to make up for the US hesitation in improving relations with the DPRK.
“EU Role on Korean Peninsula” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, US)
“Role of EU on Korean Peninsula” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, ROK)


7. Trilateral Coordination Committee

Officials from Japan, the ROK, and the US reiterated their strong support for continued engagement with the DPRK at a March 26 meeting of the ROK-US-Japan Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) in Seoul. They reaffirmed their commitment to continue the 1994 Agreed Framework, while urging the DPRK to join them for successful implementation of the agreement.
“Trilateral Coordination Committee” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, US)
“Trilateral Coordination Committee” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, ROK)
“DPRK Policy Coordination” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)
“Three-Way Talks on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, ROK)


8. ROK Adherence to MTCR

The ROK’s entry to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) was approved at a meeting of the global organization in Paris on Monday.
“Missile Control Technology Regime” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)
“ROK Adherence to MTCR” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, ROK)
“ROK Adherence to MTCR” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, US)


9. DPRK Foreign Relations: UK, New Zealand, PRC

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said that Britain will open its first embassy in the DPRK “in the near future.”
“DPRK-UK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, ROK)

New Zealand officials said Sunday that New Zealand would establish diplomatic relations with the DPRK on Monday.
“DPRK-New Zealand Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il met with Zeng Qinghong, alternate member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, and briefed each other on their respective domestic situations and exchanged views on the further development of friendly relations between the two parties and the two countries.
“PRC-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, PRC)


10. DPRK-Russia Railway Talks

A Russian delegation headed by Russian Railways Minister Nicholi Akshonenko visited Pyongyang in order to discuss the railway-matters with the DPRK. Their aim is to restore the Traversing Korea Railways that stretches from Hasan to the border of the ROK.
“DPRK-Russia Railway Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, ROK)


11. DPRK Abductees

The Korea Herald reported that a group of Korean and Japanese activists with family members who were kidnapped and sent to the DPRK will visit a UN human rights body early next month to appeal for international support for repatriation, organizers said Tuesday.
“DPRK Abductees” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, ROK)


12. ROK-DPRK Relations

ROK National Assembly Speaker Lee Man-sup will discuss parliamentary exchanges with a DPRK parliament secretary-general at a meeting in Havana, Cuba, next week, which will be held on the sidelines of the annual conference of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).
“Inter-Korean Parliamentary Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, ROK)

Kim Hyong-sup, a spokesman for the ROK Red Cross indicated that ROK officials were doubtful Friday about whether the DPRK would respond soon to their proposal to hold Red Cross talks in Seoul next week.
“ROK-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, US)

The DPRK and the ROK carried out the first ever mail exchange in 50 years. Each side transferred to its counterpart about 300 letters from relatives to addressees living across the border.
“DPRK-ROK Mail Exchange” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)

The DPRK notified an ROK civic group alliance Thursday that it has accepted the group’s proposal to hold working-level talks in preparation for celebrations to mark the first anniversary of the inter-Korean declaration of peace and reconciliation signed at the June 15 summit.
“DPRK Talks with ROK Activists” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, ROK)

The DPRK informed the ROK that it would not join the proposed inter-Korean team for the 46th World Table Tennis Championships in Osaka, Japan April 23-May 5, dashing hopes for the first unified sports team in 10 years.
“Inter-Korean Sports Exchange” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, ROK)


13. DPRK in UN Committee

A diplomatic source said the DPRK has notified the United Nation Disarmament Center (UNDC) that it will decline its turn to lead the alternating chairmanship of the center’s secretariat.
“DPRK Rejects UN Chairmanship” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, ROK)


China


1. US Military Threat Assessments

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld informed US President George Bush on Department of Defense plans to change US defense priorities. Rumsfeld believes that the main threat to US originates not from Russia, but from Asia Pacific (that is the PRC and the DPRK).
“USA Threat Assessment” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)
“US Military Policy Review” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)

US Air Force General Ralph Eberhart said that the PRC is developing cyberwarfare capabilities that could put at risk the US military computer networks that it relies on for its operations.
“PRC Cyberwarfare Capabilities” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, US)

The Russian daily Izvestia reported on March 12 that the PRC announced an almost 18 percent rise in its defense spending in 2001. It reported on March 16 that the PRC for the first time expressed its willingness to talk with the US on US National Missile Defense (NMD) plans.
“PRC Defense Effort” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)
“PRC Stance on US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)


2. US-PRC Relations

General Henry Shelton, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the US needs to pursue cooperation with the PRC.
“US Policy toward PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)

On March 20, US President George W. Bush reaffirmed that the new US Government continues to adhere to its one-China policy, regard the PRC as its trading partner, and welcome the PRC’s entry into the WTO as early as possible.
“US Position on US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, PRC)


3. US Arms Sales to Taiwan

A New York Times editorial said that Vice-Premier Qian Qichen’s visit to the US has rendered for US President Bush an opportunity to set a constructive course with China. The editorial warned that sales of advanced weapons to Taiwan could severely hurt US-PRC relations.
“US Position on US Arms Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, PRC)

George W. Bush held talks with PRC Vice-Premier Qian Qichen in which the main topic was expected to be Taiwan. They are also expected to have discussed US plans for missile defense. Qian Qichen stated at the Asian Society that the Taiwan question is the most important and sensitive issue in PRC-US relations and one that must be taken seriously and handled properly.
“US-PRC Talks on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)
“PRC Position on PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, PRC)

PRC President Jiang Zemin told visiting former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that the PRC and the US should concentrate on the common interests of the two nations and push forward PRC-US relations in the 21st century. In an interview, PRC President Jiang Zemin said that the reason why Taiwan question has remained unresolved for so long is largely due to the US. He also urged the US not to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan
“PRC Position on PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, PRC)
“PRC Position on Taiwan Question” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, PRC)
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)

According to a source with links to former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, retired Admiral Thomas Moorer, US President George W. Bush decided late last week to not to sell Aegis-class guided missile destroyers to Taiwan. Robert Karniol, Asia Pacific editor of Jane’s Defense Weekly, reported that Taiwan’s interested in Aegis-class destroyers demonstrates that Taiwan’s greatest fear from the PRC is no longer invasion, but rather missile attack.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, US)
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)


4. PRC-Taiwan Strategic Balance

Admiral Dennis Blair, commander-in-chief of the US Pacific Command, told the US Senate armed services committee that the military balance of power between the PRC and Taiwan had remained unchanged over the past year and remains stable.
“Cross-Straits Military Balance” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, US)

Jane’s Defence Weekly reported that according to the Taipei Times newspaper, Taiwan has made advances in its development of the Tien Chi (Sky Spear) surface-to-surface ballistic missile (SSBM), a short-range SSBM capable of striking targets in the PRC.
“Taiwan Missile Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, US)


5. PRC-India Strategic Balance

An essay by Satish Kumar, a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, highlights the threat facing India as the PRC has nuclearized Tibet.
“India-PRC Nuclear Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)

PRC Premier Zhu Rongji will skip India on an upcoming your of South Asia. An official stated that there was too short a time to accomplish anything substantial between Zhu’s visit and Li Peng’s recent visit.
“India-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)


6. South China Seas Dispute

Philippine National Security Adviser Roilo Golez said Wednesday that the Philippines sent a gunboat to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea to ward off any attempt by the PRC to erect structures on the rock. Golez said that the Philippines was concerned over the pattern of PRC maritime activity around the shoal.
“South China Seas Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, US)


Japan


1. Japan-US Relations

US President George W. Bush on Monday named former Senator Howard Baker to be ambassador to Japan.
“US Ambassador to Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)


2. Japan-Russia Relations

RF President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Yoshiro Mori after their meeting in Irkutsk said that they still hoped to conclude a peace treaty. Putin called that “a priority in Russia’s policy toward Japan,” while Mori expressed satisfaction with the “sincerity and enthusiasm” of Putin, who wanted “to resolve the long-standing problems in Russo-Japanese relations while retaining honor and dignity of both parties.” Economic cooperation was discussed in addition to the issues of South Kurils and peace treaty.

“RF-Japanese Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)

A Japanese Consulate General was opened in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, and thus Japan became the first foreign country to have three consulates general in the RF Far East.
“RF-Japanese Consular Relation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)


3. Historical Wartime Issues

A best-selling Japanese book of cartoons by Yoshinori Kobayashi called “On War” celebrates Japan’s actions during World War II as the liberation of Asians from Western imperialism, and denies atrocities such as the Nanjing massacre, sexual enslavement, and biological warfare experiments.
“Japanese View of World War II” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)

A Japanese court on Monday rejected demands for compensation by a group of ROK former sex slaves and soldiers forced into service by Japan’s army during World War II. Also, the Hiroshima High Court on Thursday overturned a 1998 district court ruling that ordered the government to pay a total of US$7,260 to three women who were forced to provide sex to Japanese soldiers during World War II.
“Comfort Women Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 26, US)
“Comfort Women Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 30, US)


Russia


1. Northeast Pacific Border Cooperation

On March 14, a meeting of experts on border patrol cooperation in the Northeast part of the Pacific Ocean opened in Vladivostok, with RF, US, Japan and ROK delegations participating, headed by the respective heads of national border guard services.
“Northeast Pacific Border Cooperation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)

Russian President Vladimir Putin was interviewed by the four leading newspapers in Russia and Putin summarized the results of his first year in power, including Russia’s relations with the DPRK.
“RF Relations with DPRK, ROK, US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)


2. Security Policy

Russian Rear Admiral Vladislav Ilyin, First Deputy Chief of the Navy Headquarters, said altogether 12-15 nuclear submarines of the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet were permanently on combat duty or patrolling at sea.
“RF Submarines” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)


South Asia


1. South Asian Nuclear Issues

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf stated that Pakistan would maintain a minimum deterrence, which he said is quantifiable relative to an enemy’s strength and should be followed by the ability to threaten an enemy’s vulnerable targets beyond their tolerance threshold.
“Pakistani Nuclear Deterrence” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)

The Hindu stated that Jane’s Intelligence Review reported that India has moved more slowly than Pakistan towards implementing a nuclear strategy, and that Pakistan has also moved more quickly towards implementing systems to ready a “more modest nuclear arsenal.”
“Report on Nuclear Strategy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)

Shaun Gregory, a lecturer at the Department of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford in the UK, discusses command and control systems for nuclear program in South Asia in a report funded by the United States Institute for Peace (USIP).
“South Asian Nuclear Programs” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


2. Unilateral Ceasefire

Bishwashwar Mishra reports in the Times of India that the defense scandal which forced George Fernandes to retire as Defense Minister will likely mean that, with impending elections, Kashmir will cease to be a major issue of concern.

“Unilateral Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)
“India-Pakistan Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)


3. Pan-Islamism

Russian daily Nezavisimaya gazeta reported that servicemen of Armed Forces of India recently shot 4 armed insurgents in Kashmir. Before dying, two of those confessed they were Uighur Muslims originated form Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (SUAR) of the PRC, a matter of deep concern for both India and the PRC.
“PRC-India-Central Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 28, RF)


4. Pakistan-India Dialogue

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf received a message from Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee in honor of Pakistan Day, saying, “India remains committed to the establishment of good neighborly relations.” Musharraf stated that while India would say no to participation in the India-Pakistan conflict as mediators by the UN or the US, they should become involved anyway.
“Pakistan-India Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)


5. Sri Lanka

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) stated that it may resume attacks outside Jaffna, including upon Colombo, if the army maintains its offensive against the LTTE.
“LTTE Ceasefire Conditions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)


Security


1. US Military Strategy in Asia

An analytical article argued that the US Defense Department’s Quadrennial Defense Review is signaling a major shift in emphasis from Europe to Asia. The casualties of this strategy may be the requirement to be able to fight two major theater wars simultaneously and the belief that Russia still poses a threat.
“US Military Strategy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, US)

The Japanese media stated that US policy changes that would put Asia at the center of US security strategy present Japan with both opportunities and pitfalls, but Japan’s domestic problems could hinder its ability to respond.
“Japanese View of US Asia Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 27, US)


Proliferation


1. Nuclear Sanctions

Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs John Manley announced that Canada had decided to lift sanctions imposed on India after the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests.
“Nuclear Sanctions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)
“Nuclear Sanctions” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


2. Russian Nonproliferation Programs

Rose E. Gottemoeller, former director of nonproliferation and national security at the Energy Department, stated that the $1.2 billion proposed by the Clinton administration for Russian programs to reduce and safeguard its nuclear weapons and materials had been reduced by President Bush’s Office of Management and Budget to $800 million, or 12 percent below the current year’s figure.
“Russian Nonproliferation Programs” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


Arms Control


1. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Sources reported that commanders of the Pakistani Army had recently met and given their unanimous approval to Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty once a consensus is developed among the political parties. Mariana Baabar writes in Outlook India that the shift on the CTBT is related to Musharraf’s need to overcome the debt repayment crisis, but will likely cause a backlash as discontent with his regime grows.
“Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #13)


2. NATO and NPT

Sean Howard, editor of Disarmament Diplomacy and Adjunct Professor at the University College of Cape Breton in Canada, stated that a major political and practical disjunction exists between the NATO and NPT views of disarmament, a divide that the Alliance’s review underscores but does nothing to bridge.
“NATO Arms Control Review” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


3. ABM Treaty

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov said, “We believe that the ABM Treaty of 1972 provides enough possibilities for solving existing problems and overcoming the threats, of which sometimes our Western partners speak today, and in particular those stemming from missile technologies.”
“Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


Missile Defense


1. US Missile Defense Debate

Tomas Valasek, Senior Analyst at the Center for Defense Information, writes in an essay that National MissileDefense (NMD) is harder for the US to sell to its allies than a Theater Missile Defense (TMD), because they fear NMD will isolate the US from Europe, weaken US military commitments abroad, and cause new arms races. James Lindsay and Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellows at the Brookings Institution, argue in a Los Angeles Times editorial that the increasing ballistic missile threat facing the US justifies the development of missile defense as long as it works against an adversary trying to defeat it, is affordable given the competing demands on the Pentagon budget, and it must protect the allies of the US.

“Missile Defense Commentary” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


2. Israeli Role in Missile Defense

In an op-ed column in the New York Times, William Safire stated that Israel’s Arrow anti-missile missile may be coupled with the US Aegis phased-array radar missile-tracking systems aboard US naval vessels to counter threats from weapons of mass destruction now being built in Iraq and Iran.
“Israeli Role in Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, arguing that Iran and Iraq are building up missile arsenals that endanger Israel and the rest of the region, appealed for a bigger role in US missile defense planning.
“Middle East Proliferation Threats” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #12)


3. DPRK View of Missile Defense

The DPRK’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on March 28 accused the US and Japan of provoking military confrontation through their boosting joint development of the proposed US anti-missile defense system.
“DPRK View of Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, March 29, US)

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