NAPSNET Week in Review 30 June, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 30 June, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, June 30, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-30-june-2001/

Korea


1. IAEA Inspections of DPRK

The DPRK’s official KCNA news agency reported that the DPRK will not allow UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitors to inspect its nuclear program until the US speeds up construction of two nuclear reactors promised under the 1994 Agreed Framework. The IAEA has said verification may take two to three years and that its experts must start work immediately so that construction of the nuclear reactors can proceed.
“IAEA Inspections of DPRK” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


2. DPRK Defectors in PRC

UNHCR regional representative Colin Mitchell said that seven DPRK Nationals who spent three days at the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Beijing left the PRC on Friday for a third country.
“DPRK Refugees in PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 29, US)
“DPRK Defectors in PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 29, ROK)
“DPRK Defectors in PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, ROK)


3. Inter-Korean Talks

Yang Sung-chul, ROK Ambassador to the US, said that time is the major variable in negotiating with the DPRK and that it is crucial for the ROK and the US not to miss the chance. Yang said that the sooner the DPRK responds to US proposal for resumption of dialogue the better things will turn out for both sides. He also pointed out that the DPRK is feeling threatened as much as it is outwardly threatening neighboring nations, then stressed the need to practice patience so as to prevent the DPRK from falling back into its old isolated state.
“ROK on Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, ROK)

ROK Unification Minister Lim Dong-won expressed hopes for a turnaround of stalled ties between the DPRK and the ROK. Lim said that big inter-Korean projects such as connecting of the Kyongui inter-Korean railway would be at the top of the agenda. He added that by the time the second inter-Korean meeting takes place in Seoul, the two leaders would be discussing easing tensions, building military confidence and other procedures for the peace process.
“ROK Hopes to Resume Inter-Korean Dialogue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, ROK)


4. Australian-DPRK Relations

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told reporters after meeting with his DPRK counterpart, Paek Num-sun, that talks between the two countries were vital to regional security. He also urged the DPRK to resume dialogue with the US to help build stability in Asia. Downer and Paek announced plans to further the diplomatic rapprochement between Australia and the DPRK by establishing reciprocal foreign missions.
“Australia-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, US)
“Australia-DPRK Relations” NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, US)


5. US-ROK Talks

ROK Defense Minister Kim Dong-shin returned to the ROK on June 24 after winding up his weeklong trip to the US. Kim’s trip was seen by many in the ROK as paving the way for an agreement between the ROK and the US in resolving the issue of the DPRK’s conventional weapons. During talks with US Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Kim explained the importance of the ROK initiative in resolving the matter as the Basic Agreement suggests a step-by-step approach, ranging from the building of military confidence to arms reduction and the establishment of a peace regime.
“US-ROK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 25, US)
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 25, ROK)


6. Commemoration of Korean War

ROK President Kim Dae-jung said on June 25 at a luncheon marking the 51st anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War that his country and the DPRK should sign a peace treaty to formally end the conflict. The DPRK’s official news agency, KCNA, reported on June 25 that thousands of citizens in the DPRK held an anti-US rally in Pyongyang. KCNA also reported that DPRK soldiers also held an anti-US speech contest on June 24 in Shinchon, 35 miles southwest of Pyongyang.
“ROK Commemoration of Korean War” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 26, US)
“ROK Commemoration of Korean War” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 26, ROK)
“DPRK Commemoration of Korean War” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 26, PRC)


7. ROK-DPRK Naval Incident

The ROK government said that two ROK navy gunboats fired nine warning shots at a DPRK fishing vessel that briefly violated the ROK’s western sea border early June 24. The episode was the most serious since skirmishes in the same area two years ago that culminated in the ROK Navy sinking a DPRK Navy torpedo boat.
“ROK-DPRK Naval Incident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 25, US)


China


1. Sino-US Relations

PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and US Secretary of State Colin Powell on Thursday agreed by telephone to work to improve Sino-US ties after “recent difficulties.” The PRC state radio quoted Tang as telling Powell, “We are ready to make common efforts with the United States to strengthen dialogue and cooperation, and to enhance understanding and trust.” The report said that the efforts would be part of the build-up to a planned meeting between PRC President Jiang Zemin and US President George W. Bush in Shanghai in October.
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, US)

The nominee for US Ambassador to the PRC, Clark Randt, said at his confirmation hearing on June 27 that he would approach differences between the two governments “with a spirit of respect.” He said that the Bush administration would “engage and cooperate with China where we can, and compete with or oppose China where we must.” Randt also reiterated US insistence on a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, and that the US does not support a declaration of independence by Taiwan.
“US Policy toward PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, US)

Global Times carried an article on PRC-US relations in the new century which said that since the end of the Cold War, the US has adopted a dual policy of trying to contain China by pressuring it eternally while hoping to facilitate an internal change of China that accords with US expectations by means of engagement. The article enumerates the domestic and international reasons for the new US administration’s harder attitudes toward China, but argued that this should not lead to the conclusion that the Bush Government takes China as its enemy and that China and the US will definitely confront each other.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 26, PRC)


2. Taiwanese Missile Development

Taiwanese United Daily News said that Taiwan is secretly developing a cruise missile that could be used to strike most of the PRC’s military establishments. The report said that the missile has demonstrated a range of hundreds of kilometers in flight tests, and the researchers hope to develop a weapon with a range up to 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). The military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology denied the report.
“Taiwanese Missile Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 26, US)


3. Spratly Islands Dispute

Philippine Vice-President Teofisto Guingona said Thursday that PRC warships have been seen in the disputed Spratly islands chain in the South China Sea but away from the Philippines-claimed area. He said that the crew of a Philippine navy ship saw the PRC ship when it went to the Spratlys to investigate US newspaper reports that PRC destroyers had been sighted in the area. Guingona did not state what kind of warships were there, how many or what action he would take.
“Spratly Islands Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 28, US)


Japan


1. US Forces in Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said at a ceremony honoring troops who died in the 1945 Battle of Okinawa that he wants to “lighten the burden” on residents of Okinawa who resent the heavy US military presence on the island. Koizumi said, “My Cabinet views this as a major issue. We are doing our utmost to find ways to lighten the burden on the people of Okinawa.”
“US Troops in Okinawa” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 29, US)


2. US-Japan Talks

Senior officials from Japan and the US will discuss diplomatic and security issues at two separate meetings. The format and schedule of the proposed talks will be decided upon at the June 30 summit meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and US President George W. Bush. Sources said that US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Japanese Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Ryozo Kato will be the central figures at the proposed meeting on diplomatic issues. Meanwhile, a separate meeting on security and defense cooperation will be held between the vice ministers and bureau chiefs of the Japanese Foreign Ministry and Defense Agency and the US State Department and Defense Department.
“US-Japan Security Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 25, US)


South Asia


1. India-Pakistan Summit

Pakistan Information Secretary Anwar Mahmood and military government spokesman Rashid Qureshi stated that the upcoming summit would have no fixed agenda. They indicated that Pakistan would focus on the Kashmir dispute.
“India-Pakistan Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)
“India-Pakistan Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)
“India-Pakistan Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)

The Times of India reports that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has invited twenty-four political parties for consultations ahead of the summit in a bid to secure political legitimacy. Musharraf has also planned similar meetings with religious leaders and media members. Several political parties, including former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and deposed Premier Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML), have decided to boycott the meetings.
“Pakistan Preparations for Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee stated his confidence that the upcoming summit would yield positive results and added that he would convene an all-party meeting prior to the summit to review India-Pakistan ties and to discuss the path of their future relations. Kashmiri leaders, including those of the All- Parties Hurriyat Conference and the Democratic Freedom Party, expressed disappointment in Vajpayee’s statement on Kashmir. Meanwhile, in an interview with CNN, Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar stated that Pakistan is interested in the US playing a role in the permanent and just settlement of the Kashmir issue.
“Summit Statements” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)

Pakistan’s The News reports that the topics expected to be discussed during the summit include the Iran-India gas pipeline that will transit Pakistani territory and a facility for the transit of trade goods exported from India to the Central Asian republics. They will discuss the possibility of Pakistan importing a range of goods from India and the need for cultural exchanges.
“Summit Agenda” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)


2. Pakistan Military Government

The Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman initially refused to comment on the decision by Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf to assume the title of President. Shortly after Musharraf was sworn in as president, Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee called Musharraf for a brief talk. An Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman also announced, “General Musharraf will be accorded a reception befitting a head of state when he arrives in New Delhi.” External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh said, “It is their arrangement and we have to deal with the government of the day.”
“Pakistan Military Government” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)


3. Pakistan-US Relations

Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar argued that US sanctions are responsible for Pakistan’s reliance on nuclear weapons and for the rising religious extremism in Pakistan. Sattar’s arguments were affirmed by several US politicians. US Senator Sam Brownback said, “The more we isolate Pakistan, the more they become a difficulty.” During his visit to the US, Sattar met with US Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice.
“Pakistan-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)


4. India-US Relations

Torkel Patterson, with the US National Security Council, stated that US President George Bush was planning a trip to India for early next year. The Times of India also reported that this was confirmed by US Undersecretary of Defense Dov Zakheim.
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)

Indian Minister of External Affairs and of Defense Jaswant Singh stated that increased military-to-military cooperation was one component of increased US- India relations. He said, “Access to bases is moving too fast, yet, let these things evolve over time.”
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)


5. Pakistan Nuclear Policy

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf reiterated that Pakistan would not compromise its minimum nuclear deterrent. He states, “Pakistan believes in maintaining a minimum credible deterrence and does not want to direct its available resources towards the race of weapons of mass destruction.”
“Pakistan Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)


Nuclear Weapons


1. Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia

Michael Krepon, president emeritus of the US-based Henry L. Stimson Center, writes in Outlook India that the challenges of nuclear risk reduction are likely to be greater in South Asia than it was for the US and the Soviet Union because of the Stability-Instability Paradox. Krepon argues that strategic stability is not assured with nuclear weapons because of the high demands of a nuclear weapons program that is safe, secure and survivable. He also argues that many nuclear adversaries become more vulnerable, especially with a limited arsenal, and that there is an increased incidence of provocative actions. Krepon argues that the leadership of Pakistan and India have a responsibility to reduce nuclear dangers in the region
“Stimson Center Report” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #26)


2. Threat Assessments

Thomas W. Graham, speaking at the Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference, argues based on his research and analysis that chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) proliferation threats are not growing but are changing; that three to seven proliferation threats require unique solutions; and that the twin issues of non-state actors and the probability of use against the US homeland are linked by assumptions that need to be thoroughly examined, probed, and debated so we do not stimulate the very threat we want to deter or to defend against.
“Threat Assessments” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

US Senator Richard Lugar, senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is the single greatest threat to U.S. national security. He said, “More so than at any other time in the past, the spread of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery constitutes a profound and urgent threat at home and abroad.” Lugar said that the US must rethink “strategies and the continuing utility of the traditional tools available to counter the threats” facing the US and its allies. Lugar made these remarks at the 2001 Carnegie International Non- Proliferation Conference.
“Threat Assessments” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


3. French Nuclear Forces

France is modernizing its nuclear weapons delivery systems despite a small reduction in its nuclear arsenal, according to a report published in the July-August 2001 issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
“French Nuclear Forces” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


4. Former Soviet Union

The recently released sixth update of the joint Monterey Institute-Carnegie Endowment “Nuclear Status Report” includes information on Russia’s nuclear arsenal and stockpile, the status of fissile material at other sites in the former Soviet Union, and the progress of US nonproliferation assistance programs.
“Former Soviet Union” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


Missile Defense


1. Bush Administration on NMD

US Secretary of State Colin Powell testified before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee that mutual assured destruction would be indispensable even if the US builds a missile defense. While Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that Russia could respond to US missile defense plans by putting multiple nuclear warheads on some of its missiles, banned by existing arms control agreements with the US (see below), Powell testified that he doubted Russia would proceed if they saw that the deployed US missile defense was a limited system.
“Bush Administration Statements on Missile Defense”(NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was questioned by Democrats in the US Senate Armed Services Committee about the cost and effectiveness of a national missile defense system, and they raised deep concerns about the administration’s threats to withdraw from the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty if Russia refused to amend it. Rumsfeld said that the task is to prepare now and not wait until the threats fully emerge. Rumsfeld also said that the Defense Department did not have a formula for deciding when the effectiveness of a new weapons system justified its high cost. The unified skepticism from liberal and centrist Democrats on missile defense indicates that US President George Bush is likely to face difficulties when he tries to sell the plan to Congress later this year.
“Bush Administration Statements on Missile Defense”(NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

Senior US officials have recently indicated that the US Defense Department can continue development of the National Missile Defense shield for at least another two years before running into restrictions created by the 1972 ABM Treaty. The officials are stressing that they do not want an ABM Treaty disagreement to damage diplomatic relations or prevent an understanding with Russia on missile defense.
“Bush Administration Statements on Missile Defense”(NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


2. US Congress on Missile Defense

Mary McGrory writes in the Washington Post that US Representative John Tierney advocates, but has been losing to the US Defense Department, public distribution of the unclassified report on the history of missile defense test failures by Phil Coyle, a former chief tester for the Pentagon’s Office of Operational Test and Evaluation and who is now with the Center for Defense Information. The Defense Department wants the report restricted to congressional readers. Christopher Shays, Chairman of the House Government Reform Subcommittee that Coyle testified before last year, is a missile defense proponent, but favors release of the Coyle report.
“US Congress on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

Senator Max Cleland said, “National missile defense is an uncertain trumpet at this point and we ought not to blow it before we test it and fully make sure it is deployable. It doesn’t make sense to deploy this system without that guarantee.”
“US Congress on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


3. Russians on US Missile Defense

Anatol Lieven argues in the New York Times that Russia should use the missile defense argument to increase the growing divide between the US and Europe, but also to force the US to support Russian technology research and Russian export industries. Lieven concludes by arguing that there is a great need for a public debate in the US, which requires the Bush administration to be clear about the system’s goals and the price it is willing to pay with Russia and others to get it.
“Responses to Missile Defense: Russian” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

Speaking in response to comments made by US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice that the US would proceed on missile defense with or without Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would not obstruct US deployment of missile defenses, but would reintroduce multiple warheads to its nuclear forces without regard to treaties that now require their elimination. He added that Russia “will reinforce our capability” by “mounting multiple warheads on our missiles” and “that will cost us a meager sum.” Putin did not state that Russia has made a commitment to the PRC on missile defense, but said, “There is a commitment to preserve the balance of security that we have now in the world as a whole and in this sense, China is an important element, and not only China.”
“Responses to Missile Defense: Russian” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


4. French and German Response to US Missile Defense

The heads of France and Germany contradicted US President George Bush’s declaration that there was a “new receptivity” to his plan for a missile defense shield during his visit to Europe. French President Jacques Chirac said after a NATO meeting that a missile shield is a “fantastic incentive to proliferate” weapons because terrorists or hostile states would build more arms in an attempt to trump the new defenses. Chirac expressed a willingness to talk about missile defense, but that he felt “the need to preserve strategic balances, of which the ABM treaty is a pillar.” The German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said, “We still see a host of issues that need to be clarified and therefore we must and indeed will be continuing intensive discussions on this subject.”
Responses to Missile Defense: France and Germany (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)


Arms Control


1. CTBT

The New York Times reports that while the US Senate rejected the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, construction is underway of the global network of sensors meant to listen for clandestine nuclear blasts. Also known as the International Monitoring System, the network of 100 out of 321 planned stations is already helping scientists detect violent winds, volcanic eruptions and the crash of meteoroids from outer space. While the debate in the US continues over the treaty, the US is paying for 25 percent of the total costs of the verification system, which, if completed, will increase the likelihood of the treaty’s ratification. Frank J. Gaffney Jr., a former US Defense Department official who opposes the pact, said that the monitoring is “a backdoor way to get us” into the treaty.
“Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar, meeting in Washington with US Secretary of State Colin Powell to appeal for an end or easing of US economic sanctions, reiterated that Pakistan will not be the first to resume nuclear testing in South Asia. Sanctions, said Sattar, retard efforts to relieve poverty, “which breeds hopelessness and desperation, and fosters extremism that needs to be opposed.” There have been strong signals that the Bush administration is preparing to ease or lift the sanctions on India, but not so for Pakistan because of its continuing support for the Taliban in Afghanistan and the failure to return to democracy.
“Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #25)

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