NAPSNET Week in Review 3 November, 2000

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 3 November, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, November 03, 2000, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-3-november-2000/

Korean Peninsula


1. US-DPRK Missile Talks

A senior administration official said that US President Clinton would want to know “the specifics” of the DPRK’s missile offer before committing to a state visit to the DPRK. The DPRK has indicated that it would expect to be compensated for halting exports to countries such as Iran and Pakistan, but US officials argue that missile exports might bring as little as US$300 million. Officials said these losses could be offset by increased trade and tourism with the ROK, and reconciliation with Japan could result in reparations for colonization. After the US and the DPRK ended three days of talks without resolution, Robert Einhorn, US Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation, said in a statement, “The delegations further clarified their respective positions on the full range of missile issues and continued to expand areas of common ground, although significant issues remain to be explored and resolved.”
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, November 1, US)
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 30, US)
“DPRK-US Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 30, ROK)
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, November 3, US)
“DPRK-US Talks” (Daily Report, November 3, ROK)

A commentary by Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington, argued that a US trade of satellite launches for a DPRK moratorium on missile tests is “almost certain” to lead to a transfer of missile technology to the DPRK.
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 30, US)
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


2. DPRK-US Relations

Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta published commentary that argued that the most difficult stage of US State Secretary Madeleine Albright’s Korean visit began when she was to discuss the results of her trip to DPRK with ROK officials. There were fears in the ROK that the US would conclude a separate agreement with the DPRK as a result of election pressures. The New York Times reported that the visit to the DPRK was merely the latest instance in a gradually accelerating transformation of the DPRK’s relations with the outside world that has been under way for at least a year. A People’s Daily article pointed out that there is still a long way to go for the normalization of DPRK-US relations.
“Albright’s DPRK Visit” (Daily Report, November 1, RF)
“US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 31, US)
“DPRK Diplomacy” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)
“PRC View of DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 31, PRC)
“US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, November 3, US)

Editorials in the mass media have questioned both the goals and utility of a hypothetical visit to the DPRK by US President Bill Clinton.
“US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 31, US)
“Clinton’s Visit to the DPRK” (Daily Report, November 3, US)

ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that the US would not shift to a neutral position in its policy toward the ROK and the DPRK, even after the US and the DPRK open diplomatic relations.
“US Policy toward ROK” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)


3. DPRK-US Military Relations

A DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said that the ROK-US joint military exercises undermined the process of seeking improved relations with the DPRK. The DPRK offered to restart economic talks with the ROK despite what it called a deliberate and premeditated invasion into its airspace by US military aircraft. The US-led UN Command (UNC) apologized for a brief accidental incursion of two US military jets into the DPRK’s airspace.
“DPRK’s View of ROK-US Military Exercises” (Daily Report, October 31, PRC)
“UNC Incursion into DPRK Airspace” (Daily Report, October 30, US)
“UNC Incursion into DPRK Airspace” (Daily Report, October 30, ROK)

The UN Command Headquarters proposed to the DPRK that they establish a “hot-line” between high-level military personnel to prevent accidental military confrontations at the de-militarized zone (DMZ).
“UNC-DPRK Hotline” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)


4. ROK-US Military Relations

Differences between US and ROK defense officials on the role of US troops in Korea emerged at a conference attended by ROK defense minister Cho Seong-tae and US Forces in Korea Commander General Thomas Schwartz. Cho reportedly alarmed US military officials with a soft-line approach that jibed with the policy of reconciliation espoused by ROK president Kim Dae-jung.
“US Troops in ROK” (Daily Report, October 30, US)

The ROK Defense Ministry said that ROK and US military officials would meet in Washington on Friday and Monday to exchange opinions on their interim probes into the alleged massacre of civilians by US troops during the Korean War. The US and ROK military officials are also discussing changes to the ROK’s missile program proposed by the ROK.
“Korean War Massacre” (Daily Report, November 3, ROK)
“US-ROK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 30, ROK)


5. ROK-DPRK UN Resolution

The DPRK joined the ROK in cosponsoring their first joint resolution to the UN. The resolution praises the June inter-Korean summit and encourages both to implement an agreement to reunite divided families and work toward eventual reunification.
“UN Resolution on Korea” (Daily Report, November 1, US)


6. Inter-Korean Relations

A senior ROK Unification Ministry official the cast doubt on a Red Cross proposal that both Koreas stick to a proposed December date for the third reunion of divided families because of delays. The ROK government and National Red Cross (KNRC) has confirmed the whereabouts of 161 separated displaced family members on a list of 200 sent by the DPRK Red Cross for the second round of exchange visits.
“Reunion of Separated Families” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)
“Reunion of Separated Families” (Daily Report, October 30, ROK)

ROK officials said that although the DPRK has agreed to resume family reunions and working-level economic talks, it has been shunning dialogue with the ROK since the third round of inter-Korean talks held last month. Analysts pointed out that the DPRK has been cooperating with the ROK only on projects it regards as beneficial, while neglecting those desired by the ROK.
“Inter-Korean Talks” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)

Two ROK umbrella labor groups, the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU) and the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), proposed that they and the DPRK’s General Federation of Korean Trade Unions jointly hold a symposium on national reunification in Beijing late next month.
“Inter-Korean Workers’ Seminar” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)


7. DPRK Economy

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il maintained that he would carry out reform of the country’s economy without the introduction of foreign capital, according to the DPRK’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
“DPRK Economic Reform” (Daily Report, October 30, ROK)

The ROK government is expected to spend a total of 2.83 billion won (US$2.5 million) from its inter-Korean cooperation fund to subsidize projects to invite DPRK artists to perform this year.
“ROK DPRK-Cooperation Fund” (Daily Report, November 3, ROK)

An ROK report said Wednesday that the DPRK is expected to suffer from a food shortage of 3.8 million tons until next year’s harvest season due to its underdeveloped agricultural sector.
“DPRK Food Shortage” (Daily Report, November 3, ROK)


8. DPRK-Japan Normalization Talks

DPRK chief negotiator Jong Tae-hwa and his Japanese counterpart, Kojiro Takano, concluded two days of talks in Beijing on normalizing their relations without reaching an agreement. The Japanese government expressed disappointment in the DPRK’s refusal to accept Japan’s offer of an economic cooperation formula as a measure to settle the past. A Japanese foreign ministry official said, “The central element in the negotiations” was how to deal with the Japanese colonization of the Korean Peninsula.” The Korea Herald reported that the Japanese government decided to apologize to the DPRK for the 35-year-long colonial rule on the Korean peninsula.
“DPRK-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, November 3, ROK)
“Japan-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 31, US)
“DPRK-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, October 31, ROK)
“Japan-DPRK Normalization Talks” (Daily Report, October 30, US)
“DPRK-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, October 31, PRC)
“DPRK-Japan Relations” (Daily Report, October 30, ROK)
“Japanese-DPRK Normalization Talks” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


9. DPRK-Russia Friendship Treaty

A protocol on exchange of certificates of ratification for the RF-DPRK Treaty on friendship, good-neighborliness and cooperation was signed Monday in Moscow.
“RF-DPRK Treaty” (Daily Report, November 1, RF)


Japan


1. DPRK Abduction Issue

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori told reporters that he would not exclude his proposal of the DPRK pretending to have found missing Japanese in a third country from options for solving the abduction issue between Japan and the DPRK. Mori has been criticized domestically for this proposal.
“Mori’s Statement on DPRK Abduction Issue” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


2. Japan-ROK Relations

Officials of the pro-DPRK General Association of Korean Residents in Japan said that they had agreed to take association members to the ROK on a six-day tour of the ROK, the second such group to visit. The visit precedes a second-phase plan by the governments of the two Koreas to allow a limited number of pro-DPRK residents to visit their relatives in the ROK.

“Pro-DPRK Korean-Japanese Visit to ROK” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


3. Northern Territories Issue

Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to hold summit talks with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori on the sidelines of a two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to discuss the territorial issue between the two countries.
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


4. Japanese-PRC Naval Visits

The PRC’s People’s Liberation Army Deputy Chief of the General Staff Xiong Guangkai, Japanese Administrative Vice Defense Minister Ken Sato and Japanese Defense Agency Director General Kazuo agreed to begin exchanges of naval ship visits next year.
“Japanese-PRC Naval Visits” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


5. Japanese-US Military Exercises

Japan and the US launched large-scale military maneuvers in and around Japan, involving 21,000 Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and US soldiers, 20 warships, and some 310 military aircraft. The exercise is staged under new Japanese legislation on US-Japan military cooperation.

“Japanese-US Military Exercises” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


6. Comfort Women Issue

Newly-appointed Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda announced that Japanese Cabinet ministers will make “voluntary based” 100,000 yen contributions each to a semipublic fund set up to pay compensation to wartime “comfort women” from other parts of Asia.
“Comfort Women Issue” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


China


1. PRC-US Diplomacy

US Department of Defense officials said that General Henry H Shelton, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, will visit the PRC and observe PLA military exercises near Nanjing. It will be the first time a senior US general has been permitted to view a large-scale war game.
“US-PRC Military Talks” (Daily Report, November 1, US)

The PRC and the US concluded a vice-ministerial-level political consultation, with both sides vowing to further improve relations between the two countries. Vice Minister of the PRC Foreign Ministry Yang Jiechi met with US National Security Advisor Samuel R. Berger and other US officials.
“PRC-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 31, PRC)


2. Russia-PRC Relations: Arms, Diplomacy

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov prepared for a trip to the PRC, dominated by Russia’s plans to sell nearly US$1 billion dollar of military hardware to the PRC. The PRC was most likely seeking to purchase a high-tech military surveillance system it had earlier sought to secure from Israel. Each unit is estimated to cost US$200 million.
“Russian Arms Sales to PRC” (Daily Report, November 1, US)


3. Cross-Straits Relations

A senior Western diplomat said that PRC leaders have indicated a slight relaxation in their stance on Taiwan. He added that in meetings with US officials, PRC leaders had shown more flexibility in the PRC’s definition of its “one China” policy and clarified earlier declarations on the use of force against Taiwan.
“Cross-Straits Relations” (Daily Report, October 30, US)

The PRC’s Foreign Affairs Committee of the PRC National People’s Congress (NPC) issued a statement expressing indignation and opposition to a resolution by the US Congress supporting “Taiwan’s participation in the UN and other international organizations.”
“Cross-Straits Relations” (Daily Report, October 31, PRC)


4. Cross-Straits Military Balance

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye published a full-page article on the PRC-Taiwan naval balance. Both navies have limited range, few anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, and a large number of obsolete weapons and communications systems.
“RF View of PRC-Taiwan Naval Balance” (Daily Report, November 1, RF)


5. Taiwan Domestic Politics

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party (KMT) on Monday began a push to impeach Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian after his government cancelled construction of a US$5.6 billion nuclear power plant.
“Taiwan Impeachment Move” (Daily Report, October 30, US)


Nuclear Weapons


1. Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

The UN Committee of Disarmament and International Security adopted a Japanese draft resolution that sets 2003 as the deadline for ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
“Japanese Nuclear Disarmament Policy” (Daily Report, November 3, US)


2. US Nuclear Policy

Stephen M. Younger, the associate director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and head of its nuclear weapons work, suggested that precision-guided conventional explosives could replace nuclear warheads on most, but not all, US strategic missiles.
“US Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)

RANSAC published an excerpt of a statement by National Security Advisor Samuel R. Berger on the dangers of nuclear proliferation and the need for the next US president to pressure the US Senate to ratify the CTBT.
“Non-Proliferation Challenges” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)


3. India Nuclear Program

India completed upgrades of the Russian-made Bramhos supersonic missile, which has a range of 300 km, can be launched from ships and aircraft, and made to carry a nuclear warhead.
“Indian Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)

Indian Atomic Energy Commission chairman R Chidambaram stated that the Pokhran nuclear tests in 1998 provided India with the “capability to design and fabricate nuclear weapons of low-yields up to 200 kilotons. K Subrahmanyam, convener of the Indian national security advisory board and author of the Kargil committee report, stated that India must also project a credible deterrence by working out contingency plans, targeting, and command and control systems.
“India Nuclear Weapons” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #41)
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #41)


Proliferations Issues


1. US-Russia Arms Control Talks

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov and US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Holum reaffirmed “the importance of clear implementation of the agreed-upon plans of cooperation in the field of strategic stability.”
“US-Russia Arms Control Talks” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)


2. Russian Fissile Materials

The Group of Eight countries will begin full-scale talks on an international financing scheme for Russia’s disposal of weapons-grade plutonium in an effort to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
“Fissile Materials” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)


3. DPRK Proliferation Issues

Daniel A. Pinkston argued that, while the Agreed Framework between the US and the DPRK has frozen the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development program, there are several hurdles that must still be cleared to complete the Agreed Framework and to verify that the DPRK has abandoned its nuclear weapons development program. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said that the DPRK must remove lingering uncertainty about its nuclear weapons activities if efforts at accommodation with the United States are to succeed. Mohamed El Baradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Thursday that the DPRK’s compliance with IAEA safeguards will help to further facilitate its rapprochement with the ROK.
“DPRK Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)
“DPRK Compliance with IAEA” (Daily Report, November 3, ROK)


Missile Defense


1. US NMD Program

The National Security Archive at George Washington University released a report containing declassified documents regarding the history of the debate over missile defense.
“US NMD Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)


2. Iranian Missile Threat

Iran’s regular army and the elite Revolutionary Guards began tests of a modified version of the PRC-made C-802 Silkworm anti-ship missile in war games.
“Iran Missile Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)

The Japanese Foreign Ministry said that Iran dismissed concerns by Japan on October 31 that it was developing missiles with technology provided by the DPRK.
“Alleged DPRK-Iran Missile Cooperation” (Daily Report, November 1, US)

Eleven former high-level US officials from previous presidential administrations issued a statement saying that Gore and then-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin agreed in 1995 that the US would acquiesce to the sale by Russia to Iran of “highly threatening military equipment such as modern submarines, fighter planes and wake-homing torpedoes” and that Gore did not inform Congress fully about the deal.
“Gore-Russia Nuclear Deal” (NPP Flash, V.2 #36)

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