NAPSNET Week in Review 27 October, 2000

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 27 October, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, October 27, 2000, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-27-october-2000/

Korean Peninsula


1. Albright’s Visit to DPRK

US Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright said on October 24 that “important progress” had been made in her talks with DPRK leader Kim Jong-il toward persuading the DPRK to “restrain missile development and testing, as well as missile exports.” Albright said that it is “absolutely essential” for the DPRK to disclose details of its nuclear weapons capabilities if its relations with the US are to reach their potential. A hotline was being constructed between the US and DPRK for Albright’s trip and a possible visit by US President Bill Clinton next month, but the hotline may remain afterwards. For extensive coverage of Albright’s visit, please see the links below.
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 25, US)
“DPRK Nuclear Program” (Daily Report, October 25, US)
“US-DPRK Hotline” (Daily Report, October 23, US)
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 25, ROK)
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 25, RF)
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 24, US)
“US Impressions of DPRK” (Daily Report, October 24, US)
“DPRK-US Talks” (Daily Report, October 24, ROK)
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)
“ROK Response to Albright’s Visit” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 23, US)
“US Congressional View of Albright Visit” (Daily Report, October 23, US)
“Albright’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 23, ROK)
“US View of Albright’s Visit” (Daily Report, October 27, US)

Douglas Broderick, DPRK country director for the World Food Program, said that US food aid played an important part in the moves toward rapprochement between the US and the DPRK. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright stressed the importance of the work that the World Food Program (WFP) is doing in the DPRK while at a WFP distribution site in the DPRK.
“Food Aid for DPRK” (Daily Report, October 24, US)
“DPRK Famine” (Daily Report, October 23, US)


2. Potential Clinton Visit to DPRK

ROK President Kim Dae-jung on Wednesday urged US President Bill Clinton to visit the DPRK. Chong Wa Dae spokesman Park Joon-young said, “President Kim said the US president’s visit to the DPRK will help establish stability and peace not only on the Korean Peninsula but also in East Asia and the whole world.”
“ROK Views on DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 26, ROK)
“ROK View on DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, ROK)

It is widely believed in the ROK that Clinton will visit the DPRK immediately after his participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for next month in Brunei. A senior official of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said that US President Bill Clinton is likely to visit the DPRK on November 11.
“ROK Views on DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 26, ROK)
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 24, US)


3. DPRK-US Relations

A senior US official said that the US will press DPRK officials hard next week to clarify a vague outline hinted at by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il to US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright for abandoning missile launches and exports. An ROK diplomatic source said that Albright conveyed to the DPRK that the US was preparing a comprehensive negotiating package with the DPRK.
“DPRK Missile Program” (Daily Report, October 24, US)
“US-DPRK Missile Talks” (Daily Report, October 26, US)
“DPRK Missile Program” (Daily Report, October 26, ROK)
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 27, ROK)

A senior aide to US Vice President Al Gore said that the Clinton administration considered using force to shut down the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program during the 1994 nuclear crisis.
“1994 DPRK Nuclear Crisis” (Daily Report, October 27, US)


4. ROK, Japanese Views of US-DPRK Talks

There have been signs of concern in both the ROK and Japan that US rapprochement with the DPRK could upset the ROK’s own diplomacy with the DPRK, and render even more remote the possibility that Japan will obtain satisfaction regarding its grievances. Each of the allies is eager for the DPRK cease to be a threat to regional stability, but for reasons of domestic politics and priorities, the US, the ROK, and Japan might like to see events unfold in a slightly different sequence. An editorial in the Christian Science Monitor said that Clinton has done well to “engage rather than enrage” the DPRK during years of careful diplomacy, but “American presidents should be cautious in how they bestow their presence.
“ROK, Japanese Views of US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 27, US)
“DPRK Missile Issue” (Daily Report, October 27, Japan)
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 25, US)


5. US Troops in ROK

Two US military aircraft inadvertently crossed the border into the DPRK air space but were safely brought back by emergency radio calls to the pilots.
“US Jets Crossing DMZ” (Daily Report, October 27, US)

The DPRK accused the US and the ROK militaries Thursday of hurting thawing relations by holding the 10-day Foal Eagle exercise. Conducted annually since 1961, it is one of the biggest of several joint training maneuvers and tests rear-area protection operations and major command, control, and communications systems.
“DPRK View of US-ROK Military Exercise” (Daily Report, October 26, US)
“ROK-US Joint Military Exercise” (Daily Report, October 25, ROK)

Military analysts, including Asian affairs analyst Alan Romberg at The Henry L. Stimson Center, said that the US will keep its troops in the ROK for the foreseeable future, even if a formal peace treaty replaces the current Korean War Armistice Agreement.
“US Troops in ROK” (Daily Report, October 25, US)

ROK Representative Kim Won-wung of the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) on Monday claimed that more than 1,500 civilians were attacked and killed by US troops during the Korean War.
“Korean War Massacres” (Daily Report, October 24, ROK)


6. ROK Military

The ROK Defense Ministry has canceled a plan to accept three Russian submarines as partial payment for Russia’s US$1.75 billion debt.
“ROK-Russian Arms Trade” (Daily Report, October 24, US)


7. Inter-Korean Relations

Park Jae-kyu, the ROK unification minister, said that all exchanges between the ROK and the DPRK will be delayed by one or two months because the DPRK concentrated its resources on preparing for the visit by US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. The scant movement by the DPRK on issues like regular visits between separated families, military and economic cooperation and a return visit of the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-il, has become an embarrassment for ROK President Kim Dae-jung. The DPRK has refused to accept a letter from ROK Unification Minister Park Jae-kyu expressing regrets at delays in dialogue between the two nations, forcing the ROK instead to present the letter through the Panmunjom liaison office. Officials said that the DPRK has yet to respond to the letter.
“Reunion of Separated Families” (Daily Report, October 26, US)
“US-ROK-Japan Policy Coordination” (Daily Report, October 25, US)
“DPRK-ROK Relations” (Daily Report, October 25, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Exchanges” (Daily Report, October 23, ROK)

After a two-week delay, the DPRK on Friday proposed, and the ROK agreed, that the November 2-4 family reunion be rescheduled for November 30-December 2 and the October 18-21 economic talks for November 8-11. A top ROK unification policymaker said that the DPRK has sent a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to the ROK, proposing that they slow down the pace of inter-Korean rapprochement.
“Reunion of Separated Families” (Daily Report, October 27, US)
“Inter-Korean Relations” (Daily Report, October 27, ROK)

ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that it was too early for the ROK to press the DPRK to improve its human rights conditions, “as it could be detrimental to building trust.” Human rights activists in France established an ad hoc committee to warn those in the West who might be too active in their attempts to become close with the DPRK.
“ROK Policy toward DPRK” (Daily Report, October 25, ROK)
“Human Rights Activists on Relations with DPRK” (Daily Report, October 27, ROK)


8. DPRK Domestic Industries

The DPRK’s Ahnbyon Chongyon (Kumgang Mountain) hydro-electric power station, which was completed on October 20, has the secondary military purpose of technically being able to flood the ROK.
“DPRK Dam Construction” (Daily Report, October 23, ROK)

The Korea Herald reported that there are a total of 2.7 million television sets in the DPRK, or 1.15 sets per 10 persons, and most are black and white.
“DPRK Communications Sector” (Daily Report, October 23, ROK)


9. ROK-US-Japan Policy Coordination

The foreign ministers of the ROK, the US and Japan, meeting as the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG), agreed to reinforce their three-way cooperation in dealing with the DPRK. They also agreed to work closely to improve the DPRK’s human rights record and to urge the DPRK to respond to international calls for easing military tensions. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was also scheduled to pay a courtesy call on ROK President Kim Dae-jung.
“ROK-US-Japan Policy Coordination” (Daily Report, October 26, ROK)
“US-ROK-Japan Policy Coordination” (Daily Report, October 25, US)
“ROK-US-Japan Talks on DPRK” (Daily Report, October 25, ROK)
“ROK-US Talks” (Daily Report, October 25, ROK)
“US-ROK-Japan Policy Coordination” (Daily Report, October 24, US)


10. DPRK-PRC Relations

Analysts said that the PRC was unnerved by the welcome given to US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and that the PRC concerned that it may lose influence over the DPRK. The PRC has been supportive of the DPRK’s detente with the US, but analysts pointed to the fact that PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian arrived just before Albright and met DPRK leader Kim after her departure. The DPRK’s state media said that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il vowed to maintain close military and political ties with the PRC despite the warming of ties with the US.
“PRC View of US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 26, US)
“DPRK-PRC Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, ROK)
“DPRK-PRC Defense Talks” (Daily Report, October 23, US)
“PRC-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)
“PRC View of DPRK-ROK Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)
“PRC View of US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 27, Japan)


11. RF-DPRK Economic Relations

The Russian Federation (RF) governmental commission on RF-DPRK economic cooperation returned back to Moscow after a week spent in the DPRK, where they signed a bilateral cooperation protocol. The two countries agreed to precisely calculate the amount of DPRK debt owed to the RF. Some RF delegation participants stated that an obstacle is the DPRK’s wish to build relations on “the Soviet economic basis.”
“RF-DPRK Economic Relations” (Daily Report, October 25, RF)


12. DPRK-Japan Relations

The Japanese government is considering extending financial assistance worth US$9 billion to the DPRK. The newspaper said that of the US$9 billion, about US$5 billion will be granted in aid while the remainder will be in the form of loans.
“Japanese Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 26, US)
“Japanese Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 27, ROK)

The DPRK state media criticized Japan for what it called moves to rewrite its constitution so its armed forces can play a greater international role. Masao Okonogi, a professor of Korean affairs at Tokyo’s Keio University, said, “If Japan sticks to the pending issues too much, it will be eventually isolated just like North Korea used to be in the past.” The Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) said that the DPRK Thursday demanded that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori apologize for his remarks asserting sovereignty over the Tokto group of islets in the East Sea.
“DPRK-Japan Relations” (Daily Report, October 23, US)
“DPRK View of ROK-Japan Territorial Dispute” (Daily Report, October 27, ROK)

The DPRK desire to establish diplomatic ties with the US has left Japan with little hope of progress in upcoming talks with the DPRK on normalizing relations. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright revealed that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il expressed interest in seeing progress on the long-standing issue of 10 Japanese that Japan believes were abducted by DPRK agents in the 1970s and 1980s.
“DPRK-Japan Relations” (Daily Report, October 27, US)
“DPRK Abduction Issue” (Daily Report, October 27, Japan)


13. DPRK-European Relations

British Foreign Minister Robin Cook said that Britain will react positively toward the DPRK’s proposal to establish foreign relations. An editorial in The Guardian said that the decision to establish diplomatic ties is another blow to the US policy of containment of so-called “rogue states.” The decision, the report said, “stems from the sensible belief that dialogue with problematic regimes, where possible, is preferable to isolation, sanctions and military threats.”
“DPRK-Europe Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)
“US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 25, US)

The DPRK has highly commended the unprecedented diplomatic overtures by European nations to improve relations with Pyongyang, saying that the moves “conform with the international trend.”
“DPRK-EU Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, ROK)
“DPRK-EU Relations” (Daily Report, October 23, US)
“DPRK Relations with EU” (Daily Report, October 23, ROK)


China


1. Arms Control Regimes

Monte Bullard, Senior Fellow at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, argues that, just as the US linked Most-Favored Nation status to PRC human rights behavior, the PRC has begun to implicitly link its arms control and nonproliferation commitments to US security support to Taiwan.
“Linkages to Arms Control” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


2. PRC Defense White Paper

The PRC’s Information Office of the State Council published a defense white paper, titled “China’s National Defense in 2000.” The white paper stressed that the PRC pursues a national defense policy that is defensive in nature. The US State Department was critical of comments on Taiwan in the white paper. David Shambaugh of George Washington University said that the white paper is a significant step toward greater openness of PRC armed forces.
“PRC Defense White Paper” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)
“PRC Defense White Paper” (Daily Report, October 24, US)


3. PRC Military Deployments

The Chinese-language daily The Sun said that the PRC has deployed specialist air-defense guided missile forces in Shenzhen and the surrounding islands to guard against attacks from Taiwan.
“PRC Missile Deployment” (Daily Report, October 23, US)

The PRC state media said that the military displays at four land and sea sites in northern PRC earlier this month proved new capabilities to attack stealth warplanes and cruise missiles. PRC generals are also reportedly also planning against expected US military intervention should PRC leaders order the People’s Liberation Army to recover Taiwan.
“PRC Military Preparedness” (Daily Report, October 23, US)


4. PRC-US Military Exchanges

The US Defense Department announced that PRC General Yu Yongbo, director of the People’s Liberation Army’s General Political Department, will begin an 11-day day visit to US military bases. Yu is scheduled to meet with US Defense Secretary William Cohen. Yu will be the highest-ranking PLA official to visit the US this year.
“PRC-US Military Exchanges” (Daily Report, October 24, US)


5. Russian Arms Sales

The PRC’s People’s Liberation Army conducted Russian-supervised tests of the Russian-made Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile system. Russia has delivered 27 Tor-M1 systems to PRC.
“RF-PRC Military Cooperation” (Daily Report, October 25, RF)


6. Cross-Straits Economic Relations

Despite the decline in cross-Straits political relations, two-way trade across the Taiwan Straits increased by 20 percent during the first five months of the year.
“Cross-Straits Economic Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, US)


7. PRC View of PRC-ROK Relations

PRC Premier Zhu Rongji said that the joint decision by PRC President Jiang Zemin and ROK President Kim Dae-jung in 1998 to set up a Sino-Korean partnership for the 21st century was a milestone in bilateral ties.
“PRC View of PRC-ROK Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)


8. India-PRC Relations

Indian experts reported that despite PRC military modernization efforts, the PRC is not perceived to be a direct threat. Rather, some experts argued it was PRC proliferation of missile and nuclear technology to Pakistan that was a threat, and others argues the PRC was not a threat due to its domestic focus.
“India-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)


Japan


1. Japan-DPRK Relations

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori faced an opposition demand for his immediate resignation following his statement that he told the DPRK in 1997 that it could avoid taking responsibility for the alleged kidnapping of Japanese nationals by pretending they had just been found outside the country.
“Japan-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 25, US)
“Mori’s Statement on Abduction Issue” (Daily Report, October 27, Japan)

Hisahiko Okazaki, former Japanese ambassador to Thailand and Saudi Arabia, argued that Japan would be the last nation to develop diplomatic ties with the DPRK, but that Japan should not be misguided by the “irresponsible” opinion that Japan would be the only country that has missed the bus.
“Commentary on Japanese-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 27, Japan)


2. Japanese-Russian Relations

During consultations between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Losyukov and his Japanese counterpart, Russia admitted for the first time that it was impossible to sign a peace treaty without first determining who owns the South Kurils. They reached consensus on the upcoming summit talks between the two leaders in Brunei in mid November.
“RF-Japan Deputy Foreign Minister Contacts” (Daily Report, October 25, RF)
“Japanese-Russian Relations” (Daily Report, October 24, PRC)


3. US-Japan Relations

US Congressman Bill Delahunt has introduced a congressional resolution seeking to block Japan from securing a permanent seat on the UN Security Council because of its whale hunting activities.
“Japanese Seat in UNSC” (Daily Report, October 24, US)

The US Department of State released a statement on the second meeting of the U.S.-Japan Commission on Arms Control, Disarmament, Non-Proliferation, and Verification.
“US-Japan Arms Control Meeting” (Daily Report, October 23, US)


4. Japanese Military

The Japanese Defense Agency (JDA) began to study developing experimental computer viruses and computer hacking technology to build a computer system to cope with so-called cyberattacks by computer viruses and hackers, but the project is raising the question of its constitutionality.
“Japanese Cyber Defense Policy” (Daily Report, October 27, Japan)


Proliferations Issues


1. Russian Proliferation

Russia has been criticized for providing weapons systems and technology to Iran. Sergei Ivanov, head of the Russian Security Council, said that the Russian government is determined to expand its relations with Iran. Robert J. Einhorn, Assistant US Secretary of State for Nonproliferation, testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Iran’s efforts in these areas.
“Russian Proliferation: Iran” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)
“Iranian WMD Systems” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)

Russian Security Council official Raisa Vdovichenko reported that Taliban agents have sought to recruit at least one Russian expert on nuclear weapons.
“Afghani Nuclear Weapons Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


2. MIIS Report

The Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies published a report edited by Michael Barletta on non-proliferation politics.
“Future US Views on Non-proliferation” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


Nuclear Weapons


1. US Nuclear Program

Legislation contained in the final 2001 defense authorization bill due to be approved by the US Congress this week contains a provision to authorize research on low-yield nuclear devices, known as “mini-nukes” and designed to be used against “hardened” and deeply buried targets.
“US “Mini-Nukes”” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


2. US-Russia Arms Control

Arms control talks between the US and Russia concluded on 18 October. The Russia Foreign Ministry released a statement after the talks concluded which insisted that talks on the START-III treaty begin as soon as possible.
“START-III Talks” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)

Russia and the US unveiled the US-funded facility in the town of Severodvinsk that will help Russia to tackle the problem of low-level radioactive waste extracted from nuclear submarines scrapped under START strategic disarmament agreements with the US.
“Russian Nuclear Waste” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


Missile Defense


1. Missile Defense Tests

The Israeli Defense Forces declared that Israel’s anti-missile shield based on the Arrow-2 rocket is finally operational. Israel is the first country to have a functioning defense against surface-to-surface missiles. The US Department of Defense’s Ballistic Missile Defense Organization and the US Army reported that the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile intercepted and destroyed a target missile.
“Missile Defense Tests” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


2. Missile Defense Commentary

The Center for Defense Information has produced an in-depth online report with information on the national missile defense program. Michael R Gordon, in an article in the New York Times, argues that the real weapons of choice for enemies of the US are harbor boats and truck bombs, not intercontinental-range missiles. Jack Spencer and Michael Scardaville, both of the Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation, argue that deployment of NMD will not lead to a new arms race. Rodney W Jones assessed the cost of building and deploying a global sea-based NMD system against long-range missiles, as well as recent proposals for boost-phase missile defenses.
“Missile Defense Commentary” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)
“Alternative NMD Systems” (NPP Flash, V.2 #35)


South Asia


1. South Asian Nuclear Conditions

David Albright, at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), updates estimates made in 1998 and reports that Pakistan has a greater stock of weapons-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium than India and is likely to have turned more of its material into weapons.
“South Asian Nuclear Conditions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)


2. India Nuclear Policy

Recent statements by the Indian Army Chief have led to speculation as to whether there has been a shift in Indian nuclear policy, raising further questions about who is responsible for determining Indian security policy.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)


3. South Asia Security Policy

During the Indian military leadership met at the Combined Commanders’ Conference of the Armed Forces, various members of the military suggested that India could be better served by coordinated military planning, coordinated intelligence services, and the prevention of cross-border terrorism.
“Indian Military Cohesiveness” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)
“Indian Security Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)

Pakistani military commanders discussed regional and geopolitical security issues and internal law and order at a two-day conference. The Pakistani Army is training regular soldiers and militants in mountaineering and high-altitude warfare to emphasize snow survival.
“Pakistan Military” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)


4. Pakistan Troop Movements

The Pakistani Army began moving nine Army divisions towards the India-Pakistan “International Border,” the Indian Army said that there was no danger because the troops and the exercises were spread over such a large area.
“Pakistani Military Activities” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)


5. Sri Lanka Election Results

Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga did not have a cabinet prior to the first meeting of the Parliament and was still attempting to formalize a coalition. Please see the link below for additional election news.
“Election Results” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #40)

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