PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said on April 19 that after two days of negotiations regarding the ramming and destruction a Chinese fighter jet by a US reconnaissance plane, the two sides have agreed to keep in contact and resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. US State Department spokesman Charles Hunter said that the US on Friday gave the PRC its proposals for a special meeting on how to avoid conflict between PRC fighters and US surveillance planes.
“PRC-US Talks on Plane Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, PRC)
“US-PRC Surveillance Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
The US-PRC spy plane controversy has bolstered the position of US policymakers advocating a tougher stance toward the PRC, but who fear that US President George Bush will acquiesce to business groups and moderate advisers from his father’s administration.
“US Policy toward PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
US reconnaissance aircraft maintain a Cold War-high tempo of operations, argues military analyst William Arkin in the Washington Post.
“US Surveillance Issues” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
US government sources said on Wednesday that the crew of the US EP-3 surveillance plane that made an emergency landing in the PRC had not been able to destroy as much of the secret materials on board as originally believed, and some of it could be exploited by the PRC.
“Secrets on US Spy Plane” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, US)
US military analysts said that PRC fighter jets are equipped with weapons rooted in US technology and sent to the PRC via Israel. US weapons specialists said that a study of PRC air-and land-based missiles reveal that their missile capabilities could not have reached full potential without US know-how.
“Alleged Israeli Arms Transfers to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
3. US Protection of Taiwan
Sino-US tensions over Taiwan rose again on Wednesday when, in a series of interviews with news organizations to mark his 100th day in office, US President George W. Bush declared that the US would do “whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself” and said the deployment of US troops is “certainly an option” if the PRC were to invade the island. Bush quickly sought to correct any impression that the remarks constitute a departure from long-standing US policy to be deliberately vague on how the US would help Taiwan.
“US Protection of Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 25, US)
“Reaction to Bush Remarks on Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, US)
4. US Arms Sales to Taiwan
US President George W. Bush has deferred selling Taiwan destroyers equipped with the Aegis combat-radar system but will offer four Kidd-class destroyers. The Kidd-class destroyers would be outfitted with an upgraded fleet-defense radar system and the cost of the entire arms sale package could amount to more than US$4 billion. US President George W. Bush said on Tuesday that he will stop the annual review of arms sales to Taiwan, ending a policy used by the US since 1982. The PRC and Taiwan reacted largely as expected Tuesday to the news of US arms sales to Taiwan. Analysts said that in fact, the arms offer is certain to bring Taiwan and the US militaries closer together, in order to integrate the relatively advanced weapons into the island’s outdated force structure. For example, if Taiwan does choose to buy the eight diesel submarines included in the US offer, it will need to build an entire submarine warfare force and a base to hold it from almost scratch. Taiwanese military officers acknowledge that Taiwan’s armed forces not only need weapons, they also need top-to-bottom reform.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“US Annual Taiwan Sales Review” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 25, US)
“Taiwan Military Reform” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 25, US)
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
European and US officials and experts said Thursday that the US failure to consult in advance with Germany or the Netherlands on its offer to sell Taiwan submarines using those countries’ technology has irritated the two governments.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
5. Responses to US Arms Sales: Taiwan, PRC
Taiwanese authorities adopted a low-profile response Tuesday to the reported arms sale approval. Foreign defense experts said that Taiwan already enjoys a net strategic advantage over the PRC, even though the PRC is trying to make up for it by pointing an increasing number of missiles at the island. Experts noted that the PRC’s strongest card is its nuclear capability, but that advantage is mainly theoretical.
“Taiwan Response to US Arms Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“Taiwan-PRC Military Balance” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 25, US)
US State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said that PRC ambassador to the US Yang Jiechi on Tuesday lodged a formal diplomatic protest at US President George W. Bush’s plans to sell arms to Taiwan. An editorial in the People’s Liberation Army Daily, the PRC armed forces’ mouthpiece, said, “Arms purchases can only make the Taiwan Straits situation more turbulent, increase the threat to regional peace and stability, and backfire.” PRC analysts disagreed on whether US President George W. Bush’s remarks on Taiwan represented a shift in US policy. Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai, stated, “At this moment, it’s very difficult to argue that there’s still a high prospect for a peaceful solution of the Taiwan issue. I think Bush’s remark and the decision on arms sales sends a signal to the PLA.” Wu said, “I don’t think individual incidents will cause a new cold war. In the larger picture of U.S.-China relations, the basic interests have not changed.”
“PRC Response to US Arms Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“PRC Reaction to US Arms Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 25, US)
“US Policy toward Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
6. Commentary on US Arms Sales
US defense official said Thursday that the US could fight the PRC in defense of Taiwan using currently available military forces. The official said, “We don’t train with the Taiwanese, and so there would be an issue there with types of standard operating procedures — tactics, techniques and procedures, as we call it. But that’s not to say we could not operate together.”
“US Defense of Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, said, “It’s the most significant weapons package in a decade. And it will give cause to yet another crisis in Sino-US relations.” Kenneth Lieberthal, Asia director of former President Bill Clinton’s National Security Council, argued, “This is one of those things you can walk back partway but never completely, because it’s part of the mind-set.
“Analyses of US Arms Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“US Policy toward Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
7. Lee Teng-hui’s Japan Visit
After Japan decided to issue a visa for Lee Teng-hui, PRC Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Yi urgently met with Japanese Ambassador to the PRC Koreshige Anami and lodged protest with the Japan. Lee Teng-hui returned to Taiwan on April 26 after undergoing medical tests and treatment during a five-day private visit to Japan.
“Lee Teng-hui’s Japan Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, PRC)
“PRC-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, US)
“Lee Teng-hui’s Visit to Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, Japan)
PRC Parliament Chief Li Peng cancelled his trip to Japan next month in protest against former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to Japan. In response to the PRC government’s decision on April 25 to postpone Li Peng’s visit to Japan, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said to reporters, “It is a regret that he cannot come to Japan. I hope he will be able to visit as soon as possible. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhu Bangzao criticized the US for granting permission for Lee Teng-hui to visit.
“PRC-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“Postponement of Li Peng’s Visit to Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, Japan)
“Lee Teng-hui’s US Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, PRC)
PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said that an anti-China vote, concocted by the US, was foiled once again as a China-tabled “no-action” motion was passed at the 57th session of the UN Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR).
“PRC-US Human Rights Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, PRC)
Bill Gertz reports in the Washington Times that US intelligence officials stated that a spy satellite photographed missile components as they were being loaded aboard an Iranian Il-76 transport jet at a DPRK airfield.
“DPRK Missile Proliferation” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
According to a military source, the DPRK has acquired several Tupolev DR-3 REYS unmanned aerial vehicles, used for reconnaissance, from a military partner in the Middle East.
“DPRK Military Purchases” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, ROK)
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov signed an agreement with DPRK Defense Minister Kim Il-chol on Friday to upgrade weapons supplied during the Soviet era.
“DPRK-Russia Military Deal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
“DPRK-Russia Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
The PRC’s Wenhui Daily stated that the Bush administration shelved the US engagement policy toward DPRK soon after assuming power. ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo and Defense Minister Kim Dong-shin met Thursday with Evans Revere, charge d’affaires at the US Embassy in Seoul, and US Forces Korea Commander General Thomas Schwartz to ask the US to reopen dialogue with the DPRK. Representative Jang Sung-min of the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) said in the letter “President George W. Bush’s North Korea policy should be formulated in a way that will re-engage the North and resume stalled negotiations.”
“US Policy on Korean Peninsula” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, PRC)
“ROK Encourages US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, US)
“US-ROK Security Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“DPRK Criticize Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
The Wall Street Journal carried an analytical article that said that frustration is mounting inside ROK President Kim Dae-jung’s government that US President George W. Bush’s Asia policies are undercutting ties between the DPRK and the ROK. A number of Kim’s aides fear time is running out as Bush’s advisers say they are still reviewing the merits of engaging the DPRK and Kim’s term ends next year. ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo on Thursday expressed his wish to the US for it to speed up its review of DPRK policy to clear up uncertainties hanging over inter-Korean relations.
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, ROK)
A reliable source in Washington disclosing President Bush’s intention to attend the upcoming APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Forum) meeting slated for October 20-21 said the Bush will come to Seoul prior to his visit to the PRC.
“Bush to Visit ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, ROK)
The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee (FRC) is to hold a public hearing on the DPRK next month and is expected to provide a debating ground on DPRK policy, with Republicans refusing to budge its hard stance and Democrats urging to resume the dialogue and engagement policy.
“US Hearing on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
An ROK foreign ministry official said Thursday that the ROK, the US and Japan will hold a meeting of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) on their DPRK policies in May as was agreed during their meeting in late March.
“3-Way-Talk on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, ROK)
Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson said Thursday that he and top European Union (EU) officials intend to express the international community’s support for warmer ties between the two Koreas during their visit to the peninsula May 2-4. Persson added that they will also discuss the DPRK’s missile program, economic reforms, human rights and foreign aid. The DPRK decided to allow a record contingent of 75 foreign journalists to enter into the country, a total of eight ROK reporters will cover the news on Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson’s trip to Pyongyang next week.
“EU-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
“Swedish P.M.’s Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, ROK)
The DPRK on Saturday accused Japan of delaying diplomatic normalization talks in what the DPRK sees as an attempt to avoid demands for financial compensation for Japan’s colonization of Korea.
“DPRK Criticize Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, ROK)
The DPRK denounced the ROK for staging a joint military exercise with the US, accusing the ROK of betraying the inter-Korean declaration. With the past five weeks of its anti-US campaigns contributing little to resuming dialogue with the US, the DPRK intensified its rhetoric against the US this week.
“DPRK View of US-ROK Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
“DPRK on US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
The DPRK has yet to start mine clearance in its section of the demilitarized zone (DMZ), despite the ROK’s completion of work in its section. However, Koh Dong-choon, head of the Korea National Railroad’s project team, said that there were no mines in the civil control area north of the DMZ and that the DPRK would complete their construction faster than the ROK. ROK Unification Minister Lim Dong-won told a committee at the National Assembly on Friday that it would be hard to relink a railway between the DPRK and the ROK this year.
“DPRK Mine Clearing” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Railway” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
Inter-Korean processing trade for the first quarter of the year was US$24.34 million or 31.8 percent of the total trade, a 23.1 percent increase from last year. According to the ROK Unification Ministry, once non-transactional affairs like humanitarian aid and construction of light water reactor are excluded, the actual trade volume is US$43.48 million, a 22 percent reduction from last year.
“Inter-Korean Trade” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
The ROK decided on Thursday to donate 200,000 tons of fertilizer to the DPRK, worth US$52 million, with the first fertilizer shipment scheduled for May 2.
“ROK Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
“Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, ROK)
A DPRK official, pointing out the importance of Kaesong Complex, said the DPRK is currently working on drawing out special laws for the project with the help from dozens of local experts.
“DPRK’s New Laws” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, ROK)
Admiral Thomas Fargo, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, concluded that the collision between the US nuclear submarine Greenville and the Japanese trawler Ehime Maru was the result of unprofessional conduct by Commander Scott Waddle, captain of the USS Greenville. Japanese expressed anger that Waddle was allowed to resign, avoid any further punishment, and be granted an honorable discharge with a pension.
“US Submarine Accident” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
“US-Japan Submarine Collision” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 25, US)
Japanese Prime Minister candidate Junichiro Koizumi defeated former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto 293-155 to win the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency Tuesday.
“Japanese Prime Minister’s Election” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 24, US)
“Japanese Prime Minister” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 23, US)
Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi announced that Makiko Tanaka would become the country’s first female foreign minister. Tanaka said on April 26 that Japan should avoid actions that could lead to deterioration in ties between Taiwan and the PRC, an apparent reference to Japan’s approval of a visit by former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui. Tanaka also said that Japan should continue seeking the return of all four disputed islands off Hokkaido in bilateral territorial talks with Russia.
“New Japanese Administration” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 26, US)
“Japanese Policy Toward PRC-Taiwan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, Japan)
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, Japan)
Newly appointed Defense Agency Director General Gen Nakatani said on April 26 that he would proceed with examining the introduction of emergency defense legislation to ensure public safety during wartime.
“Contingency Legislation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, Japan)
LDP President Junichiro Koizumi said during a press conference held at party headquarters in Tokyo on April 24 that the war- renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution “should be revised in the future.” Koizumi also said, “An article whereby the existence of the nation’s Self-Defense Forces can be interpreted as running counter to the Constitution is absurd.”
“New Prime Minister’s Position on Constitution” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, Japan)
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Friday called ROK President Kim Dae-jung government and promised to work closely to solve the controversy over the new Japanese history textbook. Koizumi said that he acknowledged the ROK’s severe public sentiment.
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
India conducted a successful test launch of its satellite rocket Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV-D1) and put an experimental satellite payload of 3,000 pounds into orbit. Defense experts say India’s space program could also serve as a platform to test a wide range of military technologies, including missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Russia’s state-owned Space Scientific Production Center stated that it would provide India with five 12KRB blocks for use in their GLSV carrier rockets.
“India Satellite Launch” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
“Russia-India Trade” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
“India Missile Test” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
Sixteen Indian troops and two Bangladeshi soldier were killed near their shared border along India’s border district of Kurigram. Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) border guard head Major General Fazlul Rahman said about 300 Indian Border Security Forces “attacked suddenly and also used mortars… but our troops retaliated. The Deccan Herald reported that this followed a weekend incident in which 20 Indian troops were taken hostage when Bangladesh seized a frontier outpost in the village of Pyrdiwah from India. An essay in The Hindu stated that the incident should serve as a reminder against complacency in bilateral relations among neighbors.
“India-Bangladesh Border Skirmish” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
“Commentary on Border Skirmish” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
The Hindu reports that Kashmiris have voiced little enthusiasm for the appointment of K.C. Pant as the Indian government’s interlocutor for talks with Kashmiris. The seven-member executive council of the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference, which met to discuss a response to the offer of talks by Indian interlocutor K.C. Pant, decided to further discuss the offer at a working committee meeting and then at a general council meeting next Monday.
“India-Kashmiri Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
“All-Parties Hurriyat Conference” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
During what was described as a private trip to Pakistan, pro-Pakistan All-Parties Hurriyat Conference executive council member Shaikh Abdul Aziz met with Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar.
“APHC Leader in Pakistan” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar stated that Pakistan intended to bolster efforts to increase trade with the PRC, which totaled US$1.2 billion in bilateral trade last year. Pakistani daily Jang cited reliable sources as stating that Pakistan and the PRC would postpone cooperation in the design and manufacture of their Super-7 multi-purpose fighter plane.
“Pakistan-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
The Sri Lankan Navy reported that it destroyed four boats off Chalai and five supply boats off Mullaithivu belonging to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The LTTE said it would not extend the ceasefire further, stating that it had become a futile effort without its reciprocation by Sri Lanka. Top LTTE mediator Anton Balasingham indicated that the LTTE may not participate in talks unless the government accepts certain preconditions.
“Military Operations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
“LTTE Unilateral Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
“Peace Process” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
In a speech given at a conference at Texas A&M University, Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin stated that the DPRK probably has one or two nuclear bombs and may also have biological and chemical weapons.
“DPRK Nuclear Weapons” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
“DPRK Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
According to government sources, the US Defense Department is studying whether to develop a low-yield nuclear weapon with an earth-penetrating nose cone that could knock out hardened or deeply buried targets. According to an analysis by the Federation of American Scientists conducted by Princeton University physicist Robert Nelson, low-yield earth-penetrating nuclear weapons, intended to threaten deep bunkers without killing the surrounding population, would release dangerous fallout.
“US Tactical Nuclear Weapons” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
Sources in Pakistan’s Finance Ministry reported that it intends to cut the budget of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission by 25 percent, 10 percent of which is from the classified budget that funds the nuclear and missile research programs.
“Pakistan Nuclear Commission” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #17)
Russian first deputy head of the general staff, Colonel-General Valery Manilov, stated that Russia’s proposed system could be deployed in various theaters all over the world, where any threat was thought to exist. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said, “The new U.S. administration needs to define its approach” to missile defense, adding that the current US proposal remained unclear. In a report for the Russian National Press Institute on the proposed US National Missile Defense (NMD) program, Mikhail Pogorely states that the US had been behind the Soviet Union, and now Russia, in developing strategic defenses, but that Russia also regards ballistic missile defense firstly from a political and then from a military and strategic point of view.
“Russian MD Proposal” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
“Russian Reaction to US MD Proposal” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
The Stanley Foundation and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies released a joint report following a series of consultations on ballistic missile defenses and Northeast Asian security held in late 2000 between government officials and non-government experts in the US, the PRC, and Japan.
“Asian Perspectives on US MD Proposal” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
In the current issue of Disarmament Diplomacy, Jürgen Scheffran criticizes the US rationale for missile defense and explores alternatives to missile defence. Ultimately, the goal would include complete elimination of ballistic missiles through agreements that include reasonable verification measures.
“Commentary on MD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
(NAPSNet Daily Report, April 27, US)
Mike McFaul, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment, argues in a CEIP Issue Brief that the $100 million cut in current cooperative non-proliferation programs with Russia laid out in the Bush administration’s proposed budget is a reduction the US cannot afford. The New York Times quoted a senior Bush administration official as saying, “This is about enabling the progress we have made to continue and making non-proliferation programs even more effective.”
“US Nonproliferation Programs in Russia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov, speaking at a Russian-organized conference on peaceful cooperation in space, called for intensive multilateral talks on banning space-based weapons.
“Space-Based Weapons Ban” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)
Fan Jishe writes in the current issue of Disarmament Diplomacy that the international arms control regime has suffered setbacks in recent years and that the policies of the Bush administration are likely to generate more instability and uncertainty in the arms control regime than those of President Clinton.
“US Arms Control Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #16)