NAPSNET Week in Review 25 May, 2001

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Korea


1. DPRK Agreed Framework

The DPRK threatened to pull out of a 1994 nuclear deal with the US, saying the US has failed to uphold terms of the Agreed Framework in which the DPRK agreed to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for two nuclear reactors to be built by a US-led consortium. James Rubin, former Assistant Secretary of State under President Clinton and teacher of American foreign policy at the London School of Economics, argues that the DPRK is one of the most foremost ballistic missile threats and one that could easily be solved diplomatically. Han Yong-sup, a professor at the ROK National Defense University, who has done extensive research on the topic, said that he thought that the DPRK had accumulated 7 to 10 kilograms (15 to 22 pounds) of plutonium through past activities that they had not reported to the atomic energy agency.
“DPRK Agreed Framework” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)
“DPRK Nuclear” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, ROK)

The ROK is unconvinced of the US idea of rewriting the 1994 Agreed Framework, but might consider the idea if the Bush administration pushes its revision under particular circumstances. As officials in the ROK and the US have indicated, the possible revision of the Agreed Framework will assume a significant portion of consultations during the upcoming Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) meeting.
“ROK on Agreed Framework” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, ROK)


2. DPRK Nuclear Inspections

A high-level team from the International Atomic Energy Agency has opened negotiations in Pyongyang for access to the nuclear weapons project that the DPRK agreed to abandon seven years ago. ROK experts said that at the heart of the demands is pressure to verify that the DPRK has fully complied with the Geneva agreement of 1994.
“DPRK Nuclear Inspections” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, US)


3. DPRK View of US Policy

The DPRK’s observer at the Asia Regional Forum (ARF) held in Vietnam, Lee Yong-ho, stated in a report delivered on May 17 that US hard line policy was damaging to reconciliation talks in Northeast Asia, diplomatic sources said Monday. The DPRK representative to the United Nations, Lee Hyung-chul, said that if the antagonism between the DPRK and the US continues, it could have a negative impact in the reconciliation process between the two Koreas.
“DPRK View of US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, ROK)
“DPRK on Missile Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, ROK)


4. DPRK Leader’s Son’s Travel

DPRK leader Kim Jong Il’s eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, reportedly made a secret visit to the US last June, according to a report in Japan’s Asahi Shimbun Sunday. The newspaper quoted diplomatic sources as saying that right after the inter-Korean Summit talks, the younger Kim visited the US for a week with a forged passport from Grenada to attract foreign investment into the DPRK.
“DPRK Leader’s Son May have Visited US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, ROK)

The forged passport used by the suspected eldest son of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il indicates that the passport’s owner visited Japan three times last year. Reportedly, the man’s forged Dominican Republic passport contained records of entry into Japan, once in October and twice in December last year, and the man arrived in Japan by way of Beijing on two occasions and via a Southeast Asian nation in the other instance.
“Kim Jong-Nam’s Entry into Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, Japan)


5. Kim Jong-il Visit to PRC

Unnamed diplomatic sources reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il was in the PRC. The sources said that Kim may have arrived there for a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Irkutsk.
“Kim Jong-Il’s Rumored PRC Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)


6. Inter-Korean Relations

The ROK government said that it has abandoned plans for a joint celebration with the DPRK of the first anniversary of the inter-Korea summit. Lee Bong-jo of the ROK Unification Ministry said that the ROK had planned to discuss joint anniversary programs with the DPRK during a Cabinet-level meeting that was originally scheduled for March, but the DPRK abruptly canceled the meeting. ROK President Kim Dae-jung asked the DPRK to mark the anniversary by committing to a follow-up meeting.
“Anniversary of First Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 24, US)
“Second Inter-Korean Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 24, US)
“Inter-Korean Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, ROK)

ROK officials said Friday that the ROK and DPRK foreign ministers will likely meet on the sidelines of an Asian regional forum to be held in Hanoi in July. The ROK expressed its desire to reopen talks during the senior officials’ meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) in Vietnam.
“Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, ROK)

Hyundai officials said Monday that Hyundai Asan President Kim Yoon-kyu would visit the DPRK for four-days beginning Tuesday to discuss ways to salvage the Mt. Kumgang tourism project.
“Mt. Kumgang Tourism Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)


7. PRC-ROK Talks

Li Peng, chairman of the PRC parliament, arrived in Seoul on Wednesday for talks with ROK officials, including ROK President Kim Dae-jung. Analysts said the two were likely to discuss US-PRC ties as well as Kim’s rapprochement with the DPRK. However, the PRC Foreign Affairs Ministry said that the exact agenda is unknown.
“PRC-ROK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)


8. ROK-US Policy towards DPRK

US President George W. Bush administration, while retaining the key factors of engagement policy, nevertheless decided that the DPRK’s nuclear missile issue is the most urgent matter to be tackled. The decision was made during the latest US deputy-secretarial level meeting attended by vice secretary of State Richard Armitage, vice-secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, and other officials in diplomatic and security departments.
“ROK-US Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, ROK)

US President George Bush officially nominated Thomas C. Hubbard as a new US ambassador to the ROK on Wednesday. Hubbard, served as one of the key members involved in establishing the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework as a Deputy Assistant Secretary of Asian affairs during the mid-90s.
“New US Ambassador to ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, ROK)

Robert Manning, a former US State Department adviser for policy from 1989-1993 and currently director of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s skillful use of the recent European Union mission to Pyongyang offers the latest piece in a growing body of evidence to suggest that Kim is a tactical genius and a strategic fool, qualities that may be a major obstacle to progress in both the ROK and US relations with the DPRK.
“US View of Kim Jong-il’s Diplomacy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, Japan)

Nick Eberstadt and Richard J. Ellings argued in an op-ed that the US President George W. Bush administration’s review of US policy toward the Korean peninsula comes at an opportune moment because the security environment in Northeast Asia is in the midst of profound change and developments in the Korean peninsula may soon present the US with great new dangers or new opportunities. They stressed the need for the US to cooperate with Japan, the PRC, and Russia in dealing with the Korean Peninsula.
“Future of Korean Peninsula” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

The Japan Times carried an essay by Scott Snyder, the Asia Foundation representative in the ROK, arguing that while the process of engaging the DPRK may be frustrating, it has yielded tangible benefits to both sides and is the only way to make progress toward peaceful coexistence.
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, Japan)


9. DPRK Domestic Conditions

A source well versed in the DPRK’s economy said on Monday that the DPRK’s economy has risen by 6.2 percent in 1999 and some more in 2000. The source stated that agriculture did not grow. Chosun Ilbo reported that the DPRK is believed to be adopting PRC’s land management policy.
“DPRK Economic Growth” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, ROK)
“DPRK Adopts PRC’s Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, ROK)

ROK officials said Sunday that the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Caritas International, a network of 154 Catholic relief groups under the Vatican’s control, will launch a joint reforestation project worth US$190,000 in the DPRK.
“Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, ROK)


China


1. PRC Nuclear Weapons

The Washington Times reported that according to US intelligence officials, the PRC is preparing an underground test at its Lop Nor nuclear weapons testing facility that could be carried out in the next several days.
“PRC Nuclear Test” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)

Former nuclear weapons scientist and intelligence analyst Danny B. Stillman, who worked for 28 years at Los Alamos National Laboratory before retiring in late 1993, is seeking to publish a 500-page memoir detailing his and other little-known contacts between US and PRC nuclear scientists during the 1990s.
“PRC Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)

US government officials have allegedly uncovered illegal PRC purchases of thousands of US radiation-protected computer chips for use in PRC missiles and satellites. The program was revealed in court papers released in Orlando, Florida, earlier this month after a raid on a PRC company, Means Come Enterprises Incorporated.
“Alleged PRC Technology Transfer” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 24, US)


2. US Spy Plane in PRC

The US and the PRC continue to disagree about the fate of the US navy surveillance plane stranded in Hainan Island. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao announced that it had accepted a US proposal to dismantle the plane and return it, but the US Defense Department denied that an agreement had been reached. James Kelly, US assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, said it was unlikely the plane would be returned by the time the US House of Representatives votes on normal trade relations with the PRC.
“US Spy Plane in PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 24, US)
“US Spy Plane in the PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, US)


3. Chen Shui-bian’s US Stopover

The Xinhua news agency reported that the PRC on Wednesday summoned Michael W. Marine, acting head of the US embassy in Beijing, to protest the US decision to allow Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian to stop over in the US en route to Latin America.
“Chen Shui-bian’s US Stopover” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao on Tuesday accused the US of breaking its promises by allowing a visit by Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian and warned of further damage to already frayed ties. A senior US Bush administration official said Tuesday that relations between the US and the PRC are “stable” and US President George W. Bush is confident the downed US spy plane will be returned.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)


4. PRC on PRC-US Relations

Zhong Weiping writes on new crises that have occurred after the PRC-US plane collision. The article said that crises between the two countries have never disappeared, and “new” means fresh problems that occurred following the mid-air collision accident on the basis of old crises. The writer concluded that PRC-US military relations are fragile and a military crisis is likely to occur due to some accident.
“PRC on PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, PRC)

Fu Mengzi, Director of the American Department in the China Institute of Contemporary Relations, writes that the fact should be fully recognized that although “strategic competitor” is not mentioned any more, its key spirit will continue to influence the US’s China policy.
“PRC Scholar on US’s PRC Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, PRC)


5. PRC-US Relations

US analysts said that US relations with Taiwan are changing at the expense of Sino-US relations. They said that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s transit through the US this week and next is merely a well-orchestrated charade masking the warmest welcome the Bush administration can offer without openly inviting trouble. Experts also said that although Taiwan has been promised greater attention as part of US Republican political campaigns in the past, this time an administration is following through and the island’s leaders and envoys are clearly pleased.
“US Policy toward Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

Russian daily Noviye izvestia reported that, against the negative background of US-PRC fights over US spy plane, US arms to Taiwan and US entry visa to Li Tenghui of Taiwan, there was at least the end of “the hackers’ war” between the two countries.
“PRC-US Hacker War” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, RF)


6. Regional Implications of US-PRC Relations

According to “The Impact of China and the US on Stability in Asia,” a report put out by the Political Economic and Risk Consultancy (PERC), it will become increasingly difficult for Asian governments to remain neutral between the US and the PRC because of the huge economic and military influence wielded by the two countries. The report said that while regional governments would prefer to see the US and the PRC as stabilizing forces, recent events have made this increasingly unlikely.
“Regional Implications of US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) meets this week in Beijing, but the US is not invited. The agenda facing the group is broad and varied, but David Zweig, a political scientist at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said, “This could be an opportunity for commiserating with each other about how difficult it is to cope in a world where there is such a high degree of American unilateralism.”
“Asia-Europe Meeting” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)


7. Taiwan Military

Taiwan Defense Minister Wu Shi-wen confirmed on May 19 that Patriot anti-missile weaponry would be test-fired next month in the first such exercise conducted outside the US. Wu said that the test-firing would be a routine part of military training programs.
“Taiwan Patriot Missile Test” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

The London Times published a story about Taiwan’s sensitive defense installation, Jiashan airbase, where more than 120 fighter jets are hidden inside a mountain to foil PRC attackers. Military planners assume that after a strike by the PRC, Taiwan’s fighter jets would still be able to take off unharmed after a PRC attack.
“Taiwan Air Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)


8. PRC-Philippines South China Sea Disputes

A Philippines embassy official said that PRC and Philippine officials on Thursday agreed to resolve their territorial dispute in the South China Sea in a peaceful manner. Philippines Vice President and Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teofisto Guingnona, Jr., and PRC Vice President Hu Jintao met for a half hour ahead of a ministers’ gathering for the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), scheduled for Friday.
“PRC-Philippines South China Sea Disputes” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 24, US)


Japan


1. Military Issues

Japanese Ambassador to Washington Ryuji Yanai told reporters on May 22 that within the US President George W. Bush administration, expectation is mounting that Japan will change its constitutional interpretation on exercising its collective self-defense right.

“US View of Japan’s Collective Self-Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, Japan)

The Japanese newspaper Yomiuri reported on May 21 that for the first time, a Japanese government survey found that more Okinawans support keeping the US military on the southern islands of Japan than oppose it.
“US Military on Okinawa” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)


2. Japanese Textbook Issue

Four ROK lawmakers mounted a last-ditch attempt to stop the use of a controversial Japanese history textbook on Wednesday by applying to a Japanese court for an injunction against the distribution of the textbook.
“Japanese Textbook Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi rejected on May 17 the PRC’s demand to revise a junior high school history textbook, but said that he will work to improve ties with the PRC. Koizumi said, “We cannot carry out revisions. But we will take the criticism in a serious manner and try to improve Japan-China relations by thinking of ways to understand and respect each other’s positions.” Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka won assurances during bilateral talks with PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan that the PRC will not make “unreasonable demands” in disagreements over trade or war history.
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, Japan)
“Japanese History Textbook Controversy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, RF)
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, US)
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, Japan)


3. Comfort Women Issue

Two members of the ROK legislature criticized the US State Department on Friday for seeking dismissal of a class action lawsuit brought against Japan by “comfort women” who were forced to serve as sex slaves for the Japanese military during World War II. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Monday that the US government contends that the US federal court does not have jurisdiction and thus may not hear the case.
“Comfort Women Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)


4. Prime Minister’s Visit to Yasukuni Shrine

PRC Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Japanese Ambassador to the PRC that Japan’s new prime minister’s plan to pray at the Yasukuni Shrine is dangerous and urged the Japanese Government to abide by relevant commitments it has made.
“PRC on Japanese History Textbook Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, PRC)
“Prime Minister’s Visit to Yasukuni Shrine” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, Japan)


5. Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, in his first letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressed Japan’s position on the northern territorial issue, emphasizing the need to clarify the return of the four northern islands upon the conclusion of a bilateral peace treaty.

“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, Japan)

Ex-Premier of Japan Yoshiro Mori said that during his last weeks in power he allegedly agreed with RF leaders on “qualitative change” of the formula for the South Kurils’ return to Japan, that is a return of two smaller isles with Kunashir and Iturup to be left to RF for a time being.
“RF-Japan Territorial Issues” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, RF)

Anonymous economists from RF State Committee on Fisheries, commenting on the implications of a possible transfer of two South Kuril isles from the RF to Japan, said that obtaining the South Kurils from the RF would let the Japanese totally provide themselves with fish and stop being dependent on RF in that respect.
“Kuril Transfer Economic Implications” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, RF)


6. Lee Teng-Hui’s Visa

Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka told her PRC counterpart on May 7 that Japan would not issue another visa to former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, government sources said on May 19.
“Lee Teng-Hui’s Visa” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 25, Japan)


South Asia


1. US Sanctions

Christine Rocca, the Bush administration’s nominee for US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, stated that US sanctions intended to punish Pakistan and India had outlived their usefulness and should be lifted.

“US Nonproliferation Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


2. Indian Military

India’s Directorate of Defense Policy released a 120-page report calling for the improvement of the Indian Army’s rapid reaction capabilities and for a regional defense umbrella.
“Overview” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


3. India-Pakistan Relations

The Indian government interlocutor for talks with Kashmir, K.C. Pant, stated in a letter to Shabbir Shah of the Jammu Kashmir Democratic Freedom (JKDF) Party that India was not opposed to Pakistani participation in a “graduated peace process” in settlement of the Kashmir issue. At the Colombo, Sri Lanka, meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries are expected to meet for the first time in two years.
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)
“India-Pakistan Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


4. Kashmir Dialogue

Home Minister L.K. Advani, a member of the hawkish rightwing faction of the BJP, and External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, a moderate, will visit Kashmir to evaluate the impact of the ceasefire. The Indian government Cabinet Committee on Security is due to meet after this visit to determine the fate of the ceasefire. Chinmaya R. Gharekhan argues in The Hindu that the best solution to the Kashmir issue involves converting the Line of Control into a more permanent and formal line between India and Pakistan.
“Kashmir Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)

Indian government interlocutor K.C. Pant responded to queries by Jammu Kashmir Democratic Freedom (JKDF) Party leader Shabir Shah, and Shah stated that he welcomed a visit to Kashmir by Pant to start talks. In a statement critical of the APHC, Shah stated he was not in favor of obstructing or putting preconditions on talks with the Indian government.
“India-Kashmir Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


5. Pakistan-PRC Relations

Two PRC North Sea Fleet ships arrived in Pakistan under the command of PRC Rear Admiral Zhang Yan as part of the celebration of fifty years of relations between the PRC and Pakistan. Pakistan Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz announced that the PRC will provide Pakistan with $1 billion in assistance for various projects.
“Pakistan-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


Russia


1. Russian Early Warning Satellites

Russian military officials said last week that they had lost control of four military satellites when fire ravaged an important ground relay station. US experts have recently warned that failures like these could lead to a false alarm resulting in a Russian launch of nuclear missiles.
“Russian Early Warning Satellites” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)


2. RF-PRC Border Situation

Most RF experts were sure that a mass emigration of Chinese to RF Far East was not only possible, but inevitable. While there are just 5 persons per 1 square kilometer in the RF Far east, there were 130 in the adjacent PRC territories. a PRC citizen was shot dead near the Blagoveshchensk border guard regiment in the RF Far East. RF border guards found two PRC poachers illegally fishing on the RF river coast and ordered them to stop.
“RF Far East and PRC Crime Expansion” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, RF)
“RF-PRC Border Situation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, RF)


Nuclear Weapons


1. US Security Guarantee

Indian columnist V.R. Raghavan argues that if the US proceeds with radical nuclear cuts, cuts to the nuclear umbrella that extends a security guarantee to US allies in Europe and Asia, it raises questions about the US as a credible security guarantor.
“US Missile Defense Proposal” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


2. Deterrence in South Asia

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released a report which described the India-Pakistan relationship as a “rapidly evolving test-bed for nuclear deterrence theory.” IISS reports that India may have fissile material stockpiles sufficient for 65 nuclear weapons and Pakistan for 39.
“South Asia Nuclear Issue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


3. Pakistan Nuclear Program

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf stated that Pakistan’s strategy was to maintain a minimum credible deterrent force, and that it expected the PRC to play a balancing role in regional stability by aiding Pakistan maintain its deterrent.
“Pakistan-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


Missile Defense


1. US Consultations on Missile Defense

The US delegation conducting consultations with US allies in Europe and later with Russia was met with skepticism by foreign leaders in Germany, France, Denmark, Turkey, Russia and other countries. US Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral Craig Quigley stated that following this round of consultations with foreign governments on Bush’s proposal, there would be congressional hearings in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate.
“Reaction to Consultations: Europe” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)
“US Consultations on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)

Former US ambassador to the UN Richard Holbrooke has been working to rally Europe against the Bush administration’s plan for missile defense.
“Reaction to Consultations: Europe” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)


2. Foreign Reaction to Consultations

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said after talks that the US delegation led by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz “failed to present adequate reasons to convince us that they have a clear vision of how to resolve issues of international security without relying on the disarmament accords that have stood for 30 years. Just before his visit to the US, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov emphasized his country’s openness to discussions on the missile defense issues.
“Reaction to Consultations: Russia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)
“Russian View of Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)
“Russian View on Defense Shields” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, PRC)

The Daily Yomiuri reported that the Japanese Defense Agency (JDA) is finding it hard to grasp the difference between the US previous two-pillar missile defense plan and the recent proposal revealed by US President George W. Bush on May 1. A senior JDA official said, “Although the US says that it does not differentiate between TMD and NMD, there is clearly a difference in technologies between long-range missiles and short-range missiles…. All Japan can do at this point is continue the joint research.”
“Japanese View of NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, Japan)

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi told a news conference in advance of a visit by US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly that, “We are opposed to the National Missile Defense because it destroys the global strategic balance and upsets international stability.” The Los Angeles Times states that the PRC views missile defense as an assertion of US global dominance that will thwart the PRC’s emergence as a major power in Asia while empowering Japan to remilitarization and Taiwan to independence.
“Reaction to Consultations: PRC” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)
“PRC View on Defense Shields” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, PRC)

Two members of the ROK legislature warned that US President George W. Bush’s plan to build a national missile defense will cause an arms race throughout Asia. The ROK government and the US Bush administration are reportedly looking to push ahead with exchange visits of defense ministers, in order to negotiate on Missile Defense plan and other issues of mutual interest.
“ROK Views of US Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 22, US)
“Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 21, ROK)

PRC Ambassador to India Zhou Gang reiterated that the PRC is opposed to the US missile defense plan and he relayed a warning to India that it may have too hastily expressed support for the US National Missile Defense (NMD) program without first analyzing it. Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh and PRC politburo member Li Changchun held talks on the US missile defense proposal, with both stating afterwards that there were more commonalities than differences.
“India-PRC Relations: Missile Defense” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)
“Reaction to Consultations: South Asia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)
“PRC Response to Indian View of NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 23, US)

Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar stated that Pakistan supported the 1972 ABM Treaty and that is was opposed to the US National Missile Defense (NMD) proposal because it could trigger a new arms race.
“Pakistan Statements on Missile Defense” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #21)


3. Commentary on Missile Defense

Thomas L. Friedman states there is a logic gap in the Bush administration’s argument for missile defense, which says that rogue states are so crazy that they would risk certain destruction by launching a missile at us, while also saying that if the US deploys a less-than-perfect missile shield, these rogue states are so rational that they would never launch one of their missiles against it, because they would realize it might not penetrate.
“Commentary on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)


Security


1. Militarization of Space

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, argues that because the US military relies heavily on satellites for communications and reconnaissance purposes, it would be a mistake for US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to seek to militarize space when doing so would not increase US military capabilities appreciably.
“Militarization of Space” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #20)

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