Korean Peninsula
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1. US-DPRK Diplomacy
US officials are reviewing the results of the latest talks with the DPRK to decide whether or not President Clinton will make a trip to the DPRK to seal any potential deals to terminate the DPRK’s missile program. Jake Siewert, spokesman for US President Bill Clinton, said Tuesday that Clinton would decide this week whether to visit the DPRK before his term ends in January. Ari Fleischer, transition spokesman for US President-elect George W. Bush, said that Bush would not oppose a Clinton trip to the DPRK. However, Republican congressman are opposed to a deal that transfers missile technology to the DPRK.
“Clinton Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 22, US)
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 22, ROK)
“DPRK Missile Program” (Daily Report, December 21, US) “Clinton’s Trip to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 21, US)
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 21, ROK)
“DPRK Nuclear Proliferation” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42)
“US President’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 20, ROK)
“Clinton’s Trip to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 19, US)
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, December 18, US)
The US Defense Department said on Monday that US and DPRK negotiators agreed to expand joint searches next year for the remains of US troops missing in action (MIA) since the Korean War.
“Remains of US Soldiers from Korean War” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
2. DPRK Nuclear Program
Nucleonics Week reported that potential members of President-elect George W. Bush’s foreign policy team are highly critical of the 1994 Agreed Framework. The Carnegie Endowment published a new report, “Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle, which details the problems around implementing the Agreed Framework. Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center, in a letter to Desaix Anderson, Executive Director of The Korean Energy Development Organization, warned that the Agreed Framework does not remove the DPRK’s nuclear capabilities.
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (Daily Report, December 21, US)
“DPRK Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, v. 2, n. 43)
“Sokolski Letter to Anderson” (Special Report) |
3. DPRK Jet Collision
The ROK Dong-A Ilbo and JoongAng Ilbo newspapers cited an unidentified ROK government official as saying that two DPRK fighter jets collided during a nighttime training exercise last week. He said that the DPRK suspended such flights, but it was not immediately known if the training had resumed.
“DPRK Jet Collision” (Daily Report, December 19, US) |
4. DPRK-UK Normalization
The Russian daily Nezavisimaya gazeta and the ROK daily Korea Herald reported that the United Kingdom and the DPRK established diplomatic relations.
“DPRK-UK Normalization” (Daily Report, December 20, RF)
“DPRK-UK Relations” (Daily Report, December 19, ROK) |
5. ROK-DPRK Talks
During last week’s ROK-DPRK inter-ministerial talks, the DPRK asked Seoul to send surplus electricity instead of building a new power plant or sending fuel. The DPRK asked the ROK to send 500,000 kilowatts of electricity immediately; the ROK refused, but they agreed to discuss the issue at the inaugural meeting of their joint economic panel in Pyongyang on December 26. DPRK delegates at the talks refused to take receipt of a copy of a ROK National Assembly resolution seeking from the DPRK the repatriation of prisoners of war and the return of abducted citizens. Talks resumed this week on clearing mines for the inter-Korean railway project.
“ROK-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, December 22, US)
“ROK-DPRK Energy Cooperation” (Daily Report, December 21, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Railway Project” (Daily Report, December 21, US)
“Inter-Korean Military Talks” (Daily Report, December 21, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Ministerial Talks” (Daily Report, December 19, ROK)
“DPRK-ROK Relations” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC)
“ROK-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
6. ROK-Vietnam Military Relations
ROK Defense Minister Cho Sung-tae held talks Monday with his Vietnamese counterpart, Pham Van Tra. The Vietnam News Agency reported that the two countries agreed to increase bilateral cooperation through exchanges on military education and the defense industry.
“ROK-Vietnam Military Relations” (Daily Report, December 19, US) |
7. Nogunri Incident
US officials said that the US has decided not to issue a formal apology to the ROK for the US Army’s role in the shooting of civilians at Nogunri, nor will it offer financial compensation to the survivors or families of the victims.
“Nongunri Incident” (Daily Report, December 22, US) |
China
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1. Military Acquisitions
Russia will sell 28 Su-27UBK jet fighter training planes to the PRC over the next three years.
“Russian Military Sales to PRC” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
2. Missile Test
US Defense Department spokesman Kenneth Bacon reported that the PRC conducted a test flight of a DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile last month while the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Henry H Shelton, was on an official visit to Beijing. Richard Fisher, a PRC military specialist with the Jamestown Foundation, added that the latest DF-31 test is part of a propaganda campaign aimed at influencing US policymakers against deploying a missile defense.
“PRC Missile Test” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
3. International Weapons Regimes
In Arms Control Today, J. Peter Scoblic analyzes the PRC’s decision to not export ballistic missile components and technology restricted by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
“PRC Non-Proliferation Pledge” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42)
Sha Zukang, a senior PRC disarmament official said at an international conference that the PRC supports the international treaty that bans and restricts the use of inhumane conventional weapons and is encouraging more countries to accept it.
“PRC View of Conventional Weapons Ban” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC) |
4. PRC View of Refugees
PRC Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Zhang Yesui stated that the PRC will continue to strengthen close ties with the UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) and make its best efforts to help settle the world’s refugees. An ROK civil group submitted a refugee status application to the UNHCR on behalf of DPRK refugees in the PRC.
“PRC Role in the UN” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC)
“DPRK Refugees in PRC” (Daily Report, December 21, ROK) |
5. PRC-US Relations
Long Yongtu, the chief representative for trade negotiations of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, said that he expects the PRC to secure formal US approval for its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) by or before US President-elect George W. Bush’s inauguration on January 20.
“PRC Accession to WTO” (Daily Report, December 19, US) |
6. US Policy on Taiwan
The US Defense Department conceded in a declassified summary of a report to Congress that the existence of several “gaps” in its understanding of Taiwan’s and the PRC’s military capacities and needs, which could affect the ability of the US to comply with the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). The report also stated, “As long as Taiwan has a capable defense, the environment will be more conducive to peaceful dialogue, and thus the whole region will be more stable.”
“US Policy toward Taiwan” (Daily Report, December 20, US)
“US Military Sales to Taiwan” (Daily Report, December 19, US) |
7. Taiwan Alleged WMD Program
Taiwan Vice Minister of National Defense Sun Tao-yu denied an analysis report released recently by Canada’s national security and intelligence bureau that included Taiwan among some 10 nations suspected of developing chemical or biological weapons.
“Alleged Taiwan WMD Program” (Daily Report, December 18, US)
Robyn Lim, professor of international relations at Nanzan University in Japan, wrote in the International Herald Tribune that the US should increase its support to Taiwan and provide theater missile defense for its troops in Japan to counter a growing threat from the PRC.
“Theater Missile Defense” (Daily Report, December 21, US) |
8. PRC-Vietnam Border Agreement
PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said Tuesday that Vietnam and the PRC will sign agreements affirming relations and setting their sea border in the Tonkin Gulf when Vietnamese President Tran Duc Luong visits Beijing December 25-29.
“PRC-Vietnam Border Agreement” (Daily Report, December 19, US) |
Japan
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1. Nuclear Weapons in Japan
The Asahi Shimbun reported that newly declassified papers showed that former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone “agreed during a September 1970 meeting with US officials that Japan would allow nuclear weapons in times of emergency.”
“Alleged US-Japan Nuclear Agreement” (Daily Report, December 20, US)
“Japan-US Nuclear Cooperation” (NPP Flash, v.2 N. 43) |
2. Japanese Defense Policy
The Japanese government’s Security Council on December 15 approved a new five-year procurement plan for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) totaling 25.16 trillion yen, an increase of 930 billion yen over the current five-year program, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7 percent.
“Japanese Defense Policy” (Daily Report, December 22, Japan) |
3. Development Aid to PRC
Japan lent 27 billion yen (US$250 million) to Chongqing, the PRC’s largest municipality, to improve its transport system. A Japanese Foreign Ministry advisory panel recommended that Japan start providing official development assistance to the PRC on a project basis and terminate its habit of multiyear disbursement programs.
“Japanese Development Aid to PRC” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC)
“Japanese Development Aid to PRC” (Daily Report, December 22, Japan) |
4. Japan-PRC Relations
Hatoyama Yukio, visiting head of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), when meeting PRC President Jiang Zemin, said Japan should think long and hard about China’s War of Resistance against Japan (1937-1945).
“PRC-Japanese Relations” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC) |
5. Japanese-Russian Relations
Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono announced that the Japanese government has given up hope of concluding a peace treaty with Russia before the end of the year, as many issues, including the territorial dispute, remain unresolved.
“Japanese-Russian Relations” (Daily Report, December 22, Japan) |
6. Japanese Red Army
Yoshimi Tanaka, a former member of the Japanese Red Army, pleaded guilty Friday to hijacking charges in the opening session of his trial at Tokyo District Court. Tanaka hijacked a Japan Airlines Boeing 727 with 129 people aboard on March 31, 1970.
“Japanese Red Army” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
Russia
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1. Russia-Japanese Fishing Agreement
A session of the Russia-Japan joint commission on fisheries ended with a number of intergovernmental agreements, including on quotas of fish catch and marine food amounting approximately to 100,000 tons in the respective economic zones. On December 18-19 the delegations were to have talks to arrange joint fishing activities in the South Kurils area.
“RF-Japanese Fishing Agreement” (Daily Report, December 20, RF) |
2. Russia View of NMD
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien issued a joint statement calling on the US to clarify its plans for a missile defense system and to adhere to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Pavel Podvig argues that a reported Russian proposal to build a joint US-Russian missile defense was never serious, but that the Russian political leadership does not seem to be ready to sever its relationship with the US over the missile defense issue.
“Russian Reaction to US NMD” (NPP Flash, v. 2, N. 43) |
US President-Elect
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1. Missile Defense Program
The US Navy Area Wide missile defense system is behind schedule according to US Defense Department reports, and the Defense Department also proposed delaying launches of Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)-High satellites, which are designed to detect enemy missile launches and track those missiles as part of the US NMD system. Editorialists and analysts evaluated the new administration’s commitment to missile defense
“Theater Missile Defense Programs” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42)
“Bush Administration’s NMD Policy” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 N.43) |
2. Russia
Joseph Fitchett argues that under president-elect George W. Bush the US is likely to rely more on power and unilateral action, and less on international cooperation enshrined in arms control agreements. The Carnegie Endowment for issued a report arguing that we are in a period of change that facilitates a fresh understanding and fresh approach to US-Russian Relations.
“Future US Security Policy” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42)
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he was optimistic about future US-Russian ties under President-elect George W. Bush. Putin stated, “Currently we have no special grounds to worry about the fate of Russian-American relations.”
“Russian View of New US President” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
3. PRC
Taiwanese and PRC analysts differed in their views of the likely policy of a new George W. Bush administration. Taiwanese military expert Chung Chien said that Colin Powell’s experience will help him handle the cross-Straits issue. However, Yan Xuetong, an international security expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing, warned, “There are too many people with a military background” in the Bush administration for it to forgo deploying a missile defense system. PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan commented that the PRC believes that US policy towards the PRC under George W. Bush will be the same as that of previous US administrations.
“George W. Bush’s China Policy” (Daily Report, December 19, US)
“PRC-US Relations” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC)
“PRC View of New US President” (Daily Report, December 19, PRC)
“Foreign Policy of Bush Administration” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2, N.43)
Officials and scholars in the PRC foreign policy establishment have expressed concern recently whether US President-elect George W. Bush might try to rally conservatives with provocative shows of support for Taiwan to make up for his slim electoral victory and a divided Congress. The Washington Times reported that US Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell said that the new US administration’s approach to the PRC and Russia will be to treat them “not as potential enemies or adversaries, but not yet as strategic partners.” A Beijing Review commentary said, “the most dangerous aspect of Bush Jr.’s position on U.S.-China policy lies in its destructive role in the tense relations between Taiwan and the mainland,” adding that “war would be inevitable” if the US defends Taiwan.
“US Policy toward PRC” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
4. Japan
Japanese officials said Sunday that they expected the Republican administration of George W. Bush to strengthen the US alliance with Japan. Masashi Nishihara, president of the National Defense Academy of Japan, stated, “To balance China, we need a stronger alliance with Washington.”
“Japanese View of US Asia Policy” (Daily Report, December 18, US) |
5. Korea
Yoon Dong-min, an analyst at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security, an ROK Foreign Ministry think- tank, warned that a tougher stance on the DPRK by the new US administration might slow reconciliation with the ROK. ROK officials and analysts said Monday that, despite a pledge by US Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell to review US military deployments in foreign countries, the US is expected to maintain the current number of troops in the ROK. ROK President Kim Dae-jung’s aides said Sunday that Kim will visit the US as early as next March to discuss policies on the DPRK with US President-elect George W. Bush.
“New US President’s Korea Policy” (Daily Report, December 18, US)
“US Troops in ROK” (Daily Report, December 19, ROK)
“Kim Dae-jung’s US Visit” (Daily Report, December 21, US)
“Kim Dae-jung’s US Visit” (Daily Report, December 18, ROK) |
6. South Asia
An opinion article in the Times of India argues that US President-elect George W. Bush’s appointments so far will be good for India and possibly bad for Pakistan and the PRC. Robert Hathaway argues that under President-elect George W. Bush and his appointed officials, US policy in South Asia will not focus on non-proliferation and the CTBT.
“US Election” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
“US Policy toward South Asia” (NPP Weekly Flash, v.2, N.43) |
Nuclear Issues
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1. Global Stockpiles
Arms Control Today published current estimates of the US and Russian inventory of nuclear weapons delivery systems, comparing these numbers to estimates made in September, 1990, before START I went into effect.
“Worldwide Nuclear Forces” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
2. START-I Agreements
Arms control negotiators from the US, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed agreements that provide for the phased elimination under the START I Treaty of the last SS-24 ICBMs remaining on Ukrainian soil. The US and Russia signed an agreement to end inspections of missile assembly plants, begun under the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty 13 years ago.
“START I Agreements” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42)
“US-Russia INF Treaty” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
3. US Arms Control Prospects
Editorials and analyses pointed to the need for the US to take advantage of the opportunity to negotiate further arms control agreements.
“Arms Control Prospects” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
4. US-Russia Launch Notification Agreement
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov signed an agreement expanding advance notice of ballistic missile launches in an effort to reduce the risk of an accidental nuclear launch. Nineteen retired US admirals and generals protested the proposed agreement.
“US-Russian Early Warning Center” (NPP Weekly Flash, v.2, N.43)
“US-Russian Launch Notification Agreement” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
5. Russian Nuclear Forces
Russian Air Force chief General Anatoly Kornukov stated that the nuclear-capable Tu-95 “Bear” bombers deployed to Russia’s far east were not probing US defenses while on training, but he did not to rule out such flights. The Russian Strategic Rocket forces announced that a new regiment of Topol-M ballistic missile systems will be put into active duty later this month. Russian Nuclear Energy Minister Yevgeny Adamov reported that the Russian Navy decommissioned 18 nuclear submarines this year.
“Russian Nuclear Forces” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42)
“RF Air Force Training in Far East” (Daily Report, December 20, RF)
“Russian Nuclear Submarines” (NPP Weekly Flash, v.2, n.43)
Nikolai Sokov of the Monterey Institute of International Studies argues that there will be a gradual reduction of the Russian nuclear arsenal though there may be a greater role for sub-strategic nuclear weapons.
“Russian Security Policy” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
6. PRC Nuclear Force Modernization
The Carnegie Endowment published a nonproliferation analysis that argues that the design and deployment of PRC nuclear forces is shaped by two key concerns: the survival of a second-strike capability and the potential deployment of missile defense systems.
“PRC Nuclear Force Modernization” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
Proliferation Issues
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1. Proliferation Challenges
The US National Intelligence Council released “Global Trends 2015” on Monday. The report said that the US will remain the world’s dominant military power over the next 15 years, while the PRC is likely to expand its influence, and Russia is headed for further decline. The report added that one strategy used by state and non-state actors against the US would be a threat to use weapons of mass destruction against US targets, and another would be attacks on US computer networks.
“US Security Challenges” (Daily Report, December 18, US)
“US Strategic Assessment” (NPP Weekly Flash, v.2, n.43)
The 2000 Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference: “New Challenges in Asia and America” took place on March 16-17, 2000, in Washington, DC. Carnegie published the full conference proceedings.
“CEIP Non-Proliferation Conference” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.2 #42) |
2. Russian Proliferation
Russian Atomic Energy Minister Yevgeny Adamov stated that he could not rule out that Russia would leave the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) to expand nuclear cooperation with India.
“India-Russia Nuclear Trade” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
“Russian-Indian Nuclear Cooperation” (NPP Weekly Flash, v.2, n.43)
A US-Russia working meeting on arms trade opened in Moscow with the US represented by John Barker, US Deputy State Secretary responsible for non- proliferation. The consultations had been initiated by the US following Russia’s decision to withdraw from the 1985 “Gore-Chernomyrdin” memorandum on arms sales to Iran.
“RF-US Consultations on Arms Trade” (Daily Report, December 20, RF) |
South Asia
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1. Indian Ceasefire
Indian Army chief General S. Padmanabhan stated that firing along the Line of Control was almost nil under the ceasefire, adding that the Pakistani army was sticking to its pledge to exercise maximum restraint along the border. Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani indicated that the Parliament was likely to consider an extension of the ceasefire and stated that while there has been a marked reduction in infiltration and terrorism in the region, but ruled out tripartite talks with Pakistan.
“Ceasefire Overview” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
“Ceasefire in Kashmir” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee stated that there was “some peace” along the Line of Control, and that India was ready for talks with Pakistan, but that violence in Jammu and Kashmir must first end. Commentary on the ceasefire pointed to obstacles to proceeding with talks.
“Potential for India-Pakistan Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
“Commentary on Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
The All-Parties Hurriyat Conference, at the conclusion of the executive meeting, released a statement supporting India’s unilateral ceasefire. Media sources reported on physical clashes between APHC members and stated that this indicates a complete division between the pro-Pakistani and pro-independence elements of the umbrella organization.
“All-Parties Hurriyat Conference” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48) |
2. Pakistan Military Government
The Times of India cited a report that stated that Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf would take over as President of Pakistan and introduce a presidential form of government. Jasaarat, a daily run by the Jamaat-e-Islami, reported that half the generals of the Pakistani military command have “turned against” Musharraf.
“Military Government” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48) |
3. Sharif Exile
A Saudi Arabia government official stated that deposed Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif’s status as a guest of Saudi Arabia means that Sharif will not participate in any political activities. Opinion essays argued that both former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the government of Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf lost moral ground as a result of the pardon.
“Sharif Exile” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48) |
4. Sri Lankan Peace Talks
Sri Lanka Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar offered the government’s acceptance of talks with the Liberation Tigers Tamil Eelam (LTTE), but stated that the war would continue in the eventuality talks begin. The LTTE rejected the government’s offer of immediate peace talks because “peace talks without a stable cease-fire do not succeed.”
“Government-LTTE Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48) |
5. Taliban Sanctions
The UN Security Council resolution to increase sanctions against Afghanistan, proposed by the US and Russia, has met opposition by the PRC and Malaysia. The US and Russia are seeking to force Afghanistan to comply with UN Resolution 1267, which asked Afghanistan to hand over suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden for trial. Pakistan has stated that despite its opposition to UN sanctions against Afghanistan, it will abide by the resolution.
“Sanctions Regime” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #48)
“PRC-Taliban Rapprochement” (Daily Report, December 20, RF)
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