NAPSNET Week in Review 2 February, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 2 February, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 02, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-2-february-2001/

Korea


1. Kim Jong-il’s PRC Visit

According to Nodong News, DPRK leader Kim Jong-il stressed the need to renew perception and change working style during his recent visit to the PRC. ROK Unification Ministry spokesman Chung Kang-kyu said, “Kim Jong-il’s tour in China in January would have a great impact on North Korea’s economic policies, directly and indirectly. That perception underscored our report on North Korea.” PRC-DPRK diplomatic sources stated that Kim told PRC President Jiang Zemin that Kim intends to construct a high-tech city in the DPRK modeled on Shanghai.
“Kim Jong-il’s Inspection Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, PRC)
“DPRK Economy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, US)
“Kim Jong-il’s Visit to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, Japan)

ROK Ambassador to the PRC Hong Soon-young cast doubt over whether the DPRK will promote a PRC-style economic reform to revive its economy. Hong said, “North Korea will go their own way in pursuing reform and openness.”
“ROK View on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, ROK)

ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Lee Joung-binn said that the DPRK is sending a “strong” message to the global community that it will promote reform and openness.
“Prospect of DPRK Opening” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, ROK)


2. Kim Jong-il’s Foreign Visits: Russia, ROK

Russian foreign ministry sources denied Japanese media reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin and DPRK leader Kim Jong-il would hold a February 25-26 summit in the Siberian city of Irkutsk. ROK Ambassador to Russia Lee Jai-chun said that summit talks between the ROK and Russia will precede the planned visit by Kim to Russia.
“Russia-DPRK Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, US)
“Kim Jong Il’s Visit to Moscow” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, ROK)
“Russia-DPRK Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, ROK)

ROK Vice Minister of Unification Yang Young-shik said that the ROK expects that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il will visit Seoul in late March or early April.
“Kim Jong-il’s Visit to ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, ROK)


3. DPRK-Belgium Relations

Belgium and the DPRK signed an agreement on January 23 to establish diplomatic relations at an Ambassadorial level. Belgium is the ninth EU member to set up relations with the DPRK.
“DPRK-Belgium Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, PRC)


4. DPRK Weapons Programs

The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, which has Deputy Secretary of Defense-designate Paul Wolfowitz on its board of advisers, has raised questions whether the two light-water reactors that the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization is building for the DPRK are capable of producing plutonium for weapons.
“DPRK Nuclear Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, ROK)

The ROK state Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said that the US has imposed economic sanctions against the DPRK firm Changgwang Sinyong Corporation for exporting missile technology to Iran. It is the first US action on a DPRK business since the US eased sanctions against the country in June 2000.
“Alleged DPRK Missile Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, US)


5. DPRK-US Relations

The DPRK accused the US of seeking to establish “political and military domination” of East Asia. The criticism in editorials was the second in four days in all of the main-state controlled newspapers. The Asian Wall Street Journal published an editorial that said that the DPRK’s reactions to remarks made by US Secretary of State Colin Powell reflect its defensiveness toward the tougher stance the DPRK is now likely to encounter from the US. President Kim Dae-jung said that the DPRK now views the US as a vital means of guaranteeing its own survival and that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il wants to boost ties with the US to bolster his country’s national security and help restore its economy.
“DPRK Policy toward US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, US)
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, US)
“US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, US)

US ambassador to the ROK Stephen Bosworth said that the administration of US President George W. Bush will support ROK President Kim Dae-jung’s “sunshine policy” of engagement with the DPRK. Bush has initiated action to establish a new DPRK policy and is re-examining that of the former Clinton Administration. The US Council on Foreign Relations announced that it will summon its DPRK Task Force Team to begin the compilation of information for a Policy Report that will be submitted to the Bush Administration.
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, US)
“US Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, ROK)
“US Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, ROK)
“US New Administration’s DPRK Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, PRC)

During talks between US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono, the US Bush administration indicated that it is willing to pursue rapprochement with the DPRK if it moves toward a formal agreement on limiting sales and export of its long-range missiles. Ri Hyong-chol, the DPRK ambassador to the United Nations, and Charles Kartman, special US envoy for the Korean peace process, met on January 18 in New York to discuss the DPRK missile question.
“US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, US)
“DPRK-US Missile Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, ROK)

Lawmakers of ROK’s ruling and opposition parties who returned from trips to the US are showing conflicting views over the Bush administration’s attitude toward the DPRK.
“ROK on US Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, ROK)

Three DPRK heart doctors will receive training at hospitals in the northeastern US for six weeks beginning March 7.
“DPRK Doctors Visits US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, ROK)


6. Suit against Kim Jong Il

The families of the victims of Korean Airlines (KAL) flight 858, destroyed by DPRK agents in 1987, announced that they will file a lawsuit in the Seoul District Prosecutors’ Office against Kim Jong-il for ordering the bombing. They said that Kim Hyon-hee, one of the perpetrators, had admitted that Kim Jong-il had personally ordered in his own writing the planting of a bomb on the plane, which killed 115 people.
“Suit against Kim Jong Il” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, ROK)


7. Inter-Korean Relations

The ROK and the DPRK tentatively reached an agreement during the fourth round of working-level military talks on a package of joint regulations that will be applied to military personnel in the Demilitarized Zone.
“Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, ROK)

The Korean National Red Cross (KNRC) and its DPRK counterpart issued a six point tentative agreement at the conclusion of their third meeting. They agreed in principle to expand displaced family member contacts and letter exchanges, after the test period had been analyzed. They could not reach an agreement on the location of a permanent reunion center. The DPRK accepted an ROK proposal to hold another round of reunions for 100 separated family members from each side in late February.
“Inter-Korean Red Cross Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, ROK)
“Red Cross Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, ROK)
“ROK-DPRK Family Reunions” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, RF)
“Reunion of Separated Families” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, US)
“Inter-Korean Red Cross Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, ROK)
“Reunion of Separated Families” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, US)
“Inter-Korean Red Cross Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, ROK)

ROK Minister of Unification Park Jae-kyu announced at the “2001 Conference for the Heads of Diplomatic Establishments Abroad” that he will establish a pan-governmental organization to successfully open the second ROK-DPRK Summit.
“Inter-Korean Summit Preparation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, ROK)


8. Inter-Korean Trade Relations

The two Koreas are set to open talks in Pyongyang to discuss ways for the ROK to provide 500,000 kilowatts of electricity to the DPRK, though the DPRK delayed the talks.
“Inter-Korean Electricity Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, ROK)
“Second Inter-Korean Working Level Talks Delayed” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, ROK)

ROK officials said that the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is negotiating with the DPRK to allow the entry of some ROK officials to the DPRK in order for them to take part in a UNDP project to preserve the environment around the Tumen River. Carolyn McAskie, head of the emergency unit of the UN office for humanitarian affairs, said that the situation in the DPRK is “slightly in flux” because the country is preparing to open up following its leader’s visit to the PRC.
“Inter-Korean River Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, ROK)
“DPRK Future” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 29, US)


9. US-ROK Security Consultation

A ranking ROK Defense Ministry official said that the ROK and the US have agreed to meet more frequently starting next month to discuss security issues. The meetings have been held on an irregular basis until now.
“US-ROK Security Consultation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, ROK)


10. ROK Satellite Launches

The ROK Ministry of Science and Technology said Tuesday that it will build a satellite launching station on an island off the southern coast by 2005.
“ROK Satellite Launches” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, US)


China


1. South China Sea Dispute

The Philippine Foreign Secretary Lauro Baja said that its navy boarded four Chinese fishing vessels near a disputed South China Sea shoal and ordered the fishermen to leave the area. The Chinese boats were ordered to leave Scarborough Shoal, but no arrests were made.
“South China Sea Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, US)
“South China Seas Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, US)


2. PRC Military Hardware

The Russian military news agency AVN quoted Russian arms sales chiefs as saying that Russia is to deliver to the PRC 100 jet engines for the SU-27 fighter planes that the PRC is building under a five-year joint venture deal.
“Russian Military Sales to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, US)


3. PRC Domestic Dissent

Five followers of the “Falun Gong” religious sect that was officially banned in 1999 attempted a collective self-immolation in Tianganmen Square in Beijing. One of those died, the others got burns of various severity.
“PRC Domestic Dissent” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, RF)


4. PRC-US Relations

US Secretary of State Colin Powell received the departing PRC Ambassador to the US, Li Zhaoxing, and Powell indicated that the Bush Administration attaches importance to its relations with PRC. Powell said that the US would continue to stick to the “one China” policy and observe principles embodied in the three communiques between the two countries.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, PRC)

In Contemporary International Relations, Fu Mengzi wrote that George W. Bush’s attitude toward the PRC was rather tough during the presidential election when he viewed PRC as a rival. Fu argued that Bush’s statements reveal an intention to “encircle China.”
“US PRC Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 30, PRC)


5. Cross-Strait Relations

Wu Hailong, the PRC Foreign Ministry’s top official in charge of APEC, said that Taiwan will enjoy full participation in this year’s meetings of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
“Taiwanese Participation in APEC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, US)


Japan


1. US-Japan Relations

Yasuhisa Kawamura, the director of the international press division at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the administration’s decision to make Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono the first foreign minister to visit the new State Department “signifies the Bush administration’s decision to place priority on Japan-US relations. Mr. [Secretary of State Colin] Powell said the alliance with Japan is the cornerstone of US-East Asian policy, and this is really substantiated.”
“US-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 31, US)
“Japanese-US Base Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, Japan)


2. DPRK Relations

Japanese Ambassador to the ROK Terusuke Terada said that, given the George W. Bush administration’s cautious approach to the DPRK, continued close cooperation among the US, the ROK and Japan is important for stability on the Korean Peninsula.
“Japanese View on US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, Japan)

US National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice told Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono that the US also recognizes the abduction issue between Japan and the DPRK and that the US would bring up the issue in future US-DPRK talks.
“Japanese-US Talks on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, Japan)


Russia


1. Russia-Japan Relations

Russia’s Segodnya reported that Japan decided “to postpone for the time being” the summit between RF President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Yoshiro Mori in Irkutsk due to discords concerning the South Kurils issue. Russia’s Zavtra made a half-page commentary to “a voluminous book” titled “The Landmarks on the Road toward Conclusion of a Peace Treaty between Japan and Russia: 88 questions from Russia’ citizens.”
“RF-Japan Summit Postponed” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, RF)
“RF Media on South Kurils” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, RF)


2. Russia-US Fishing Agreement

Nils Iogansen of Russia’s Izvestia reported that that negotiations within the framework of the RF-US Commission on Fish Resources in the Bering Sea was a success. The US agreed to grant RF fishermen a free-of-charge quota to catch a large amount of pollock in the US coastal area.
“RF-US Fishing Agreement” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 1, RF)


South Asia


1. Gujarat Earthquake

More than 20,000 are believed dead, with estimates that number may rise tens of thousands more, after a 7.9 (Richter scale) earthquake struck Gujarat in India’s northeast on Republic Day, January 26. An aftershock measuring 5.9 on the Richter scale hit on January 28.
“Gujarat Earthquake” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


2. Indian Unilateral Ceasefire

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee stated that India had decided at a formal meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) to extend for an additional month the unilateral ceasefire in Jammu and Kashmir. The Hindustan Times reported that, despite divisions over the ceasefire within the ruling coalition and outside, the decision to extend the ceasefire was made because the Indian Army thought the ceasefire was conducive to peace.
“Indian Unilateral Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)

The US welcomed India’s extension of the unilateral ceasefire, and US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher stated that Pakistan should use its influence over Kashmiri militants to stop the violence. Pakistan responded to the extension by India of its unilateral ceasefire in a statement by the Foreign Office which urged India to end repression in Kashmir and to sit down to three-way talks. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah expressed his disapproval that the central government’s decision to extend the ceasefire in Kashmir.
“Pakistan-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)
“Pakistan-India Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)
“Indian Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


3. US Sanctions Against India

Indian Ambassador to the US Naresh Chandra stated that, as a result of a better understanding of conditions in South Asia by the US, the US is likely to lift its remaining sanctions against India.
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


4. LTTE Ceasefire

As the Sri Lankan government launched an offensive against them, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) announced that it would extend its unilateral ceasefire by another month. Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga stated that the Norwegian peace settlement was on track, but that there would be no ceasefire by the government.
“LTTE Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)
“Peace Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


Nuclear Weapons


1. Pakistan Nuclear Policy

An ordinance issued by Pakistan President Rafiq Tarar creates the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority, which will be responsible for licensing and inspecting nuclear facilities. Pakistani Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Abdul Aziz Mirza stated that Pakistan did not need to match India militarily but should focus instead on a selective deterrent. He stated that Pakistan could deploy nuclear weapons on its submarines.
“Pakistan Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)

V.R. Raghavan states that during the meetings between the Islamabad Policy Research Institute and the Delhi Policy Group, some Pakistani participants made it clear that Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons is linked to advancement of policy goals in relation to jehad and to achieving Indian concessions on Jammu and Kashmir.
“Pakistan Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


2. Pakistan Missile Program

A Pakistani official was reported in Pakistan’s The News as having stated that the medium-range Shaheen I and intermediate-range Shaheen II ballistic missiles were in production and had been inducted into the Army. The Hindu, which reported on The News report, stated that the Shaheen II has not been tested.
“Pakistan Missile Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


3. India Missile Program

V.K. Atre, scientific advisor to the Indian Defense Minister, stated that the Agni II intermediate-range ballistic missile was ready for induction into the missile forces “sometime this year” after its successful test last week. Jane’s Defense Weekly reported that the second flight test by India of the Agni II, a nuclear capable ballistic missile with a range of about 2,500 km, will enable India to develop a credible nuclear deterrent against China and Pakistan and that even longer-range Indian missiles are being developed.
“India Missile Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)
“India Missile Test” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)
“South Asia Arms Race” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)

At this year’s annual Republic Day parade, India decided not to showcase the Agni II missile, and instead focused attention on the Prithvi, which can carry a one-ton warhead 300 km. The Hindu argued that this was to send a signal to the PRC that its nuclear forces were not targeted at the PRC but at Pakistan. The Hindu stated that the Agni and the TU-22 bomber are the most likely delivery vehicles for India’s nuclear weapons, and not the Prithvi.
“India Nuclear Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #5)


4. US Nuclear Weapons

Greece’s Athens News reported that the fewer than a dozen B61 US nuclear bombs stored at the Araxos Air Base have been removed. It is unclear whether the bombs were to be returned to the US or moved to more central storage in another European country. The Los Angeles Times reported that, under pressure from retired US Air Force pilot Derek Duke, the US Air Force will investigate whether it is worthwhile to find and recover a nuclear bomb jettisoned by a B-47 bomber in 1958 near Wassaw Sound, 12 miles off the coast of Savannah, Georgia.
“US Nuclear Weapons” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)


5. Nuclear Balance

The Center for Strategic and International Studies released an updated “The Military Balance,” which includes “The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis,” a detailed description of the nuclear balance, trends in nuclear forces, and their impact on arms control.
“Nuclear Balance” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)


Missile Defense


1. Missile Defense Tests

The Los Angeles Times reported that the U.S. Air Force, Lockheed Martin Corp., TRW Inc. and Boeing Co. announced a successful test of optical systems that a space-based laser would use to shoot down ballistic missiles. U.S. Navy Aegis Cruiser USS Lake Erie test-launched a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) as a component of the Navy Theater Wide (NTW) anti-ballistic missile system, and reported that the SM-3 successfully completed an Aegis LEAP Intercept test. ATK (Alliant Techsystems) Aerospace Propulsion Company reported that it successfully completed a static test firing of a solid propulsion rocket motor for the ground-based interceptor missile element of the National Missile Defense (NMD) program.
“Missile Defense Testing” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)


2. NMD and US Relations: PRC, Russia

Inside China reports that, under new President George W. Bush, the US and its allies could find itself in an arms race with the PRC because the incoming administration is perceived as being more aggressive on defense and committed to pursuing National Missile Defense (NMD). People’s Daily reported that US President George W. Bush will deploy the National Missile Defense (NMD) system, and unilaterally cut the number of US nuclear weapons. People’s Daily also reported that US Vice President Dick Cheney said that, in spite of opposition from the PRC and Russia, the US will continue to develop and deploy the NMD system.
“PRC and NMD Issue” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)
“US NMD Deployment

There were numerous articles in the media presenting foreign perspectives on President George W. Bush’s proposed NMD. Included in these reports is a statement by Russian military analysts that indicates that Russia has postponed implementing reforms of the military until it can gauge future US policy.
“Russia and NMD Issue” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)
“Russian Military Reform” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)
“Canada and NMD Issue” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)


Arms Control


1. NMD and Arms Control Regimes

Peter Malone argues, in an op-ed in the Boston Globe, that the surest route to both missile defense deployment and deep reductions may lie in a new arms-control construct that envisages strategic defense and strategic offense as interchangeable elements of national power. In a speech to the U.N. Conference on Disarmament, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Inamul Haq warned that the proposed US national missile defense program could heighten tensions between major powers and lead to an arms race.
“NMD and Arms Control Regimes” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)


2. Russian Nuclear Forces

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said Russia is doing everything it can to prevent the proliferation of nuclear arms, but sees no need to set exact deadlines for the destruction of its nuclear stockpile.
“Russian Nuclear Forces” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)


3. PRC Proliferation

Yao Yi, president of the Beijing-based Lion Photonics, Inc., admitted in US District Court that he violated the Arms Export Control Act by attempting to arrange for sophisticated US-made fiber optic gyroscopes to be shipped to the PRC. US Government prosecutors told the court that the gyroscopes are used in missiles, so-called “smart bombs,” and aircraft guidance systems.
“Illegal Missile Parts Sales to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 2, US)


4. South Asia

Nicholas Berry, Senior Analyst at the Center for Defense Information, states that India and Pakistan, like the US and USSR before them, are discovering that nuclear weapons have little rational military utility and, as a result, are beginning to explore arms control agreements to at least preserve the political utility of nuclear weapons.
“South Asia” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #4)

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