NAPSNET Week in Review 19 January, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 19 January, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, January 19, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-19-january-2001/

Korea


1. Kim Jong-il Visit to PRC

An official at Shanghai’s foreign ministry confirmed that DPRK leader Kim Jong-Il visited Shanghai this week in his second secret trip to the PRC within 12 months. A Shanghai hotel confirmed that Kim had checked in, but the PRC Foreign Ministry, the DPRK Embassy in Beijing, and the Foreign Affairs Bureau of Shanghai all said that they knew nothing of a visit by Kim. The Kyodo news agency in Japan quoted a government source in the ROK as having said Kim was discussing with PRC leaders relations with the ROK and the US under the Bush administration.
“Kim Jong-il Visit to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, US)
“Kim Jong-il’ s Visit to PRC Suspected” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, ROK)
“Kim Jong-il Visit to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, US) “Kim Jong-il Visit to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, ROK)

ROK Yonhap News Agency quoted presidential spokesman Park Joon-young as confirming that Kim was in the PRC and said the visit indicated the DPRK was seeking changes. ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that Kim’s second visit to the PRC in about seven months proves that the country is following PRC’s path on reforming and opening its economy. Kim Dae-jung added, “This shows that North Korea is deeply interested in the Chinese-style reform and open-door policy and that it is trying to become a second China.”

“Kim Jong-il Visit to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, ROK)
“ROK Policy DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, ROK)


2. DPRK at APEC

The PRC said it would support any request by the DPRK to attend this year’s Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, hosted by the PRC in Shanghai.
“DPRK in APEC Forum” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, US)


3. ROK Military Hardware

The ROK declared that, under a new agreement with the US, it would develop new missiles capable of hitting targets in most of the DPRK. The new policy would allow the ROK to develop short-range missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and a payload of 500 kilograms.
“ROK Missile Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, US)
“US Reaction to ROK Missile Guidelines” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, US)


4. ROK-US SOFA

The ROK and the US signed a revised Status Of Forces Agreement (SOFA) after several years of difficult negotiations. ROK Foreign Minister Lee Joung-Binn signed the accord with senior US Embassy Counselor Evans Revere who stood in for Ambassador Stephen Bosworth.
“US-ROK Sign SOFA” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, US)


5. DPRK Defectors

Amnesty International Korea will drastically increase pressure on the PRC in seeking an improvement in the protection of human rights of DPRK defectors and asylum-seekers staying in the PRC.
“DPRK Defectors in the PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, ROK)

ROK officials said that the ROK’s National Intelligence Service will reverse their policy and make public the arrival of DPRK defectors to the ROK.
“ROK Policy on DPRK defectors” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, ROK)


6. Inter-Korean Relations

ROK officials said that the DPRK, which has markedly stepped up inter-Korean rapprochement efforts in the New Year, proposed on January 13 an enhancement of cooperation in the fisheries industry. The ROK proposed that the two Koreas hold economic talks on January 27 in Kaeseong.
“Inter-Korean Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Economic Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, ROK)

Gregor Gysi, 52, the last chairman of East Germany’s former ruling Socialist Unity Party (SED), said that in their pursuit of national reunification, ROK leaders should not exclude DPRK elite groups but embrace them, noting that West Germans failed to do so.
“Unification Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, ROK)


China


1. PRC-US Relations

PRC analysts said the PRC could end up in an arms race with the US and its allies Japan and Taiwan as incoming US President George W. Bush starts pushing a more aggressive defense agenda. PRC think tanks admit the missile defense plans have the potential to seriously disturb Sino-US relations in the years ahead, although some doubt the system can be implemented. US Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell said that the PRC is not a US enemy but is a potential rival rather than a partner. Powell also pledged to stand firm in support of Taiwan and laid out the benchmarks of his approach to the PRC.
“Sino-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, US)


2. Space Program

The PRC’s second unmanned spaceship, Shenzhou II, returned to earth safely on January 16 in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region after circumnavigating the earth 108 times in less than a week. A manned flight with 3- 4 persons on board is expected in late 2002 or early 2003, but some experts think it might take place a year earlier.
“PRC Space Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, PRC)
“PRC Spaceship Flight” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, RF)


3. Armed Forces

The Russian Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniey published an article by Evgeniy Dezhin on the history and the present state of psychological and information warfare in PRC, starting from the 5th century BC.
“PRC Armed Forces and Psychological Operations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, RF)


4. Cross-strait Relations

The Taiwan-based China Times quoted a military source as saying that a US military mission concluded that Taiwan is ill-prepared for a military first strike by the PRC because of outdated communications and command systems and because of modernization by PRC forces.
“Cross-strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, US)


5. Military Issues

The Hong Kong newspaper the Oriental Daily News cited PRC intelligence information saying that the PRC is building a base for advanced ground-to-air missiles in the coastal Fujian province, which faces Taiwan. The paper said the long-range missile base in Zhangzhou city will be used as a permanent deployment center for Russian-made S-300 PMU2 missiles which have a minimum range of 90 km and which could severely weaken Taipei’s defense of the Taiwan Strait.
“Cross-Strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, US)


Russia


1. RF-Japanese Territorial Dispute

Japanese Foreign Minister Iohei Kono and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov held talks in Moscow concerning a bilateral peace treaty and the territorial issue, but failed to agree on the date of the summit. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Losyukov “made it become known to the Japanese that ‘for us the border is established: the four island are our territory, and the fact is stipulated by our Constitution.'”
“RF-Japanese Territorial Dispute” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, RF)

Russia’s Sovetskaya Rossiya published a letter signed by more then twenty well-known academicians and retired ambassadors which expressed opposition to a return to Japan of the Kurils.
“RF Public Opposition to Return of South Kurils” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, RF)

Professor Akihiro Ivasita, of the University of Yamaguti Prefecture in Japan, claimed that, “in principle the territorial issue between our countries is not an insurmountable obstacle on the path of development of international relations”. His argument was that territorial disputes between Japan, China and ROK did not hinder the relevant relations.
“Japan-RF Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, RF)


Security


1. PRC-Russia Friendship Treaty

The PRC and Russia are working on a treaty proclaiming friendship, reflecting the intensity of their concerns about US global power and especially about the proposal for a national missile defense. However, Chinese and Western scholars and diplomats said there is no sign that the PRC and Russia plan to enter a genuine alliance. David Shambaugh, a political expert at George Washington University and the Brookings Institution in Washington, said the treaty under negotiation is likely to be “hollow rhetoric.” The Russian-daily Nezavisimaya gazeta reported that treaty is a defense treaty and that one of its goals “will be to oppose US influence and to counter Pentagon’s plans to create an anti-missile shield in America and a part of Asia.”
“PRC-Russian Treaty” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, US)
“RF and PRC to Sign a Defense Treaty” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, RF)


South Asia


1. India-PRC Relations

Li Peng, chairman of the PRC National People’s Congress, arrived in India for a state visit. Li stated that India and the PRC did not pose a threat to each other and could cooperate in a multipolar world, but analysts expect that the visit will not lead to any breakthroughs in India-PRC relations. The Hindu published an interview conducted with Li Peng. An essay stated that, because of their similar concerns for terrorism and religious extremism, Afghanistan was expected to be an important dialogue topic for Li and Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee.
“Li Peng Visit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)
“India-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)

Manoj Joshi argues that the recent visit by Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee to Vietnam and Indonesia is part of an effort to strengthen ties with regional countries that are wary of future relations with the PRC.
“Foreign Relations: Southeast Asia, Australia” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)

PRC foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said that the PRC would work with the international community to prevent an arms race in South Asia and that it had taken note of India’s test-firing of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile.
“PRC-India Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, US)


2. India Military Hardware

The much-touted deal to purchase the UK-made Hawk advanced jet trainer for the Indian Air Force (IAF) has been canceled after Hawk decided to cut production of the plane. Russia has announced that it will send two warships to participate in India’s International Fleet Review in February.
“Military” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


3. Pakistan Military Hardware

Pakistan intends to spend US$630 million to acquire a modern PRC warship and build another three under technology transfer.
“Military Hardware” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


4. Situation in Kashmir

The first village-level elections are underway in Kashmir, and will be staggered to permit security forces to protect against terrorist attacks.
“Overview” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)

Despite an attempt on the life of Jammu and Kashmir State Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, there are calls in India for another extension of the unilateral ceasefire. Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh stated that he could not rule out a visit to Pakistan this year if Pakistan stopped its support of cross-border terrorism and ended hostile anti-India propaganda. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Monika Mohta stated that the Indian government denied reports that an invitation to visit India had been sent to Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf.
“Indian Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)
“Musharraf Visit to India” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


5. India-Pakistan Relations

Government officials in both India and Pakistan have remarked that there appears to be a warming in India-Pakistan relations. The leadership of the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) is awaiting the approval of travel documents by the Indian government for a trip to Pakistan to meet with Pakistani government officials and representatives of Pakistan-based militant groups to discuss the unilateral Indian ceasefire, which is set to expire January 26, and options for settlement of the Kashmir issue. The APHC selected a five-member team from its seven-member executive council, but three members lack passports. The APHC may be worried that its role as a mediator or participant in trilateral talks is being eliminated by strengthening bilateral ties. Indian National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra stated that the decision on whether or not to approve the passport requests by the APHC would be made after Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee returned to New Delhi on January 14.
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)
“All-Parties Hurriyat Conference” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


6. Sri Lanka

Norwegian envoy Erik Solheim arrived in Sri Lanka to resume negotiations with the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE, but returned to Norway after failing to break the deadlock.
“Norwegian Peace Envoy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


Nuclear Weapons


1. India-Pakistan Track II Diplomacy

Pakistan’s Islamabad Policy Research Institute will host a six-member Indian team from the Delhi Policy Group composed of former government and military officials for meetings to discuss nuclear risk reduction and related issues. The Indian team may meet with high-level officials of the Pakistani government.
“Track II Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


2. Pakistan Nuclear Program

An admiral in the Pakistani Navy reported that Pakistan was developing a nuclear delivery system for the Navy, but would not specify the nature of the weapon system.
“Pakistan Nuclear Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)


3. PRC-US Relations

Two US researchers with the National Security Archive said that findings from dozens of declassified US government documents obtained showed that the US and Taiwan considered military action against suspected nuclear facilities in the PRC in the early 1960s in order to prevent the PRC from becoming a nuclear power. Jeffrey Richelson and William Burr published their findings in the winter 2000/2001 issue of International Security.
“Sino-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, US)


Proliferation


1. US Defense Department Report

A US Defense Department report on proliferation in South Asia states that both India and Pakistan are likely to conduct further nuclear and missile tests in the near future, and both are expected to become potential suppliers of WMD technology to other countries. The report, titled “Proliferation: Threat and Response,” also states that India should make an effort to distance itself from an advisory group report which stated that India should pursue a policy of developing a credible minimal deterrent force.
“Proliferation Threats” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)
“India Nuclear Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #3)

The PRC condemned the US Defense Department report and PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said, “The accusations in the report are groundless and highly irresponsible.”
“Pentagon Report” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 17, PRC)


2. ROK in MCTR

The ROK will join the global Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in March. Joining the MCTR will enable the ROK to gain access to missile technology but prevent it from exporting certain technologies.
“ROK Joins Missile Control” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 16, ROK)


Missile Defense


1. PRC Commentary on US NMD

Boston Globe published an opinion article by Hui Zhang that said President-elect George W. Bush will have to consider whether other nations’ reactions should affect his decision on a national missile defense (NMD). Zhang noted that the PRC, in particular, sees the system as a major challenge to its security, and is likely to respond in ways that threaten US interests.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, January 18, US)

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