NAPSNET Week in Review 17 November 2000

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 17 November 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, November 17, 2000, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-17-november-2000/

Korean Peninsula


1. Four-Party Peace Talks

ROK officials said that when DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun met a visiting PRC delegation, he revealed that the DPRK is considering resuming the four-way Korean peace talks that have been stalled for more than a year.
“Four-Party Peace Talks” (Daily Report, November 13, ROK)


2. IAEA Inspections of DPRK

Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the U.N. General Assembly that he was hopeful that recent positive developments would soon spur the DPRK to allow inspection of its nuclear program to verify that it is not developing atomic bombs.
“IAEA Inspections of DPRK” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)


3. DPRK Military

Quoting internal military sources, the DPRK’s official Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that four ROK navy ships, along with some fishing vessels, intruded into DPRK waters. The DPRK accused the ROK of committing a “serious military provocation” by sending ships into its waters this week. The KCNA warned that its army was “highly alerted” and that “South Korean military authorities will be wholly responsible for the consequences to be entailed by the military provocations in the Yellow Sea.”
“DPRK-ROK Naval Incident” (Daily Report, November 16, ROK)
“ROK-DPRK Naval Incident” (Daily Report, November 15, US)
“ROK-DPRK Naval Incident” (Daily Report, November 17, US)

The DPRK and the UN Command (UNC) met at Panmunjom and the UNC expressed its intention to hand over administration of one area in the southern section to ROK forces. The DPRK insisted that the UNC give ROK forces complete jurisdiction as well as negotiating and administrative rights over the area. The UNC and the DPRK on November 16 tentatively agreed to transfer the administrative rights over a section of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) to the ROK military for the planned inter-Korean railway and highway projects.
“DPRK-UNC Talks” (Daily Report, November 15, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Railway” (Daily Report, November 17, US)

The ROK Defense Minister proposed to the DPRK Defense Chief that they hold ROK-DPRK military contacts to arrange the time and place of the second defense chiefs talks. The DPRK reportedly expressed that it will reply as soon as possible.
“DPRK-ROK Relations” (Daily Report, November 13, PRC)


4. Policy Coordination on the DPRK

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and ROK President Kim Dae-jung agreed during talks on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Brunei that the leaders of Japan and the ROK agreed that the US, Japan, and the ROK should coordinate their policies on the DPRK to ensure peace and stability in the region. Mori had stated, “The respective relations between Japan and North Korea, the United States and North Korea, and North and South Korea have to develop while keeping the balance between the pairs.”
“ROK-Japan Policy Coordination” (Daily Report, November 15, US)
“Japanese-ROK Talks” (Daily Report, November 17, Japan)
“Japanese Rice Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, November 17, Japan)
“Japanese-US Talks” (Daily Report, November 17, Japan)

The ROK government is seeking support for inter-Korean dialogue at the upcoming “ASEAN plus Three” summit talks, which will include leaders from the 10-member ASEAN and the ROK, the PRC and Japan.
“ASEAN Meeting” (Daily Report, November 16, ROK)


5. DPRK Food Aid

The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program said in a joint report that the DPRK will face a seventh straight year of food shortages and will need to import 1.8 million tons of cereals in 2000-2001.
“DPRK Food Shortage” (Daily Report, November 16, US)

The DPRK allowed ROK officials for the first time to inspect some of its food storehouses near Pyongyang and Kaesong to prove that it was not diverting outside aid to its military.
“Inspection of DPRK Food Aid” (Daily Report, November 13, US)


6. ROK-DPRK Relations

Jeong Il-young, a former parliamentarian of the United Liberal Democrats (ULD), citing an informant who had visited the Russian Far East, said that at least 50 prisoners of war (POWs) and other ROK citizens abducted by DPRK agents are now living in the Kamchatka Peninsula, Chukotka Autonomous Region, and the Koryakia area.
“ROK POWs in DPRK” (Daily Report, November 16, ROK)

The ROK’s Korea National Red Cross (KNRC) on Monday finalized the list of 100 separated family members who will visit Pyongyang for the second round of inter-Korean family reunions from November 30-December 2.
“Reunion of Separated Families” (Daily Report, November 14, ROK)

The ROK and the DPRK signed treaties on November 11 to reduce the risk and cost for ROK firms opening businesses in the DPRK. Both governments agreed to guarantee each other’s corporate investments, avert double-taxation, designate local banks to allow direct financial transactions, and establish a bilateral body to settle potential trade disputes.
“ROK-DPRK Trade Agreement” (Daily Report, November 13, US)
“ROK-DPRK Trade Agreement” (Daily Report, November 13, ROK)

The ROK national assembly has been suspended as politicians clashed over the government’s rapprochement policy towards the DPRK. Many in the ROK are criticizing the extent of the government’s economic aid to the DPRK, which is expected to reach approximately US$560 million this year.
“Internal ROK Politics” (Daily Report, November 14, US)


7. DPRK-US Talks

The Russian daily Nezavisimaya gazeta reported that DPRK-US talks on the DPRK missile program had resumed in Kuala Lumpur.
“DPRK-US Talks in Kuala Lumpur” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)


8. DPRK-US Diplomacy

The Washington Post, citing statements by former directors of Asian affairs at the US National Security Council Michel Oksenberg, now teaching at Stanford University, and Kenneth Lieberthal, reported that enthusiasm for a trip by US President Bill Clinton to the DPRK has waned.
“Clinton’s Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, November 14, US)

Susan Shirk, Professor at the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) at the University of California in San Diego and chairperson of the semi-official Northeast Asia Security Dialogue, revealed her plan during the 10th Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD) to visit the DPRK along with scholars of the member states.
“Inter-Korean Exchange” (Daily Report, November 14, ROK)

US Forces Japan spokeswoman Master Sergeant Eudith Rodney said that remains believed to be those of 15 soldiers missing in action since the Korean War were flown to Japan and handed over to the US military in a ceremony on November 11.
“Remains of US Soldiers from Korean War” (Daily Report, November 13, US)


9. DPRK-EU Relations

A group of European Union (EU) representatives will make their first official visit to the DPRK on November 25 to attend the third EU-DPRK political dialogue and establish diplomatic ties.
“DPRK-EU Relations” (Daily Report, November 14, ROK)
“DPRK Foreign Relations” (Daily Report, November 13, ROK)


China


1. US-PRC Missile Talks

US President Bill Clinton and PRC President Jiang Zemin made progress toward curtailing PRC missile exports and resuming talks on human rights on the sidelines of the APEC meeting. Stanley Roth, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, characterized the conversation as “an agreement in principle rather than a specific agreement that the dialogue was going to be resumed at a specific date.”
“US-PRC Missile Talks” (Daily Report, November 16, US)
“US-PRC Nonproliferation Talks” (Daily Report, November 17, US)


2. US-PRC Relations

The Washington Post reported that a negative shift in the PRC view of the US was seen in PRC’s most recent white paper on defense. Analysts of the PRC indicate that this demonstrates that there is an increasingly united view of the US as a possible adversary, though the PRC leadership does not appear united on how to deal with the challenge.
“PRC Views of US” (Daily Report, November 15, US)

PRC Ambassador to the ROK Wu Dawei called on the US on November 16 to reconsider its policy on military presence in the ROK when the Korean Peninsula establishes a peace regime.
“PRC View of US Troops in ROK” (Daily Report, November 17, ROK)

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhu Bangzao and the leader of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the PRC’s National People’s Congress (NPC) both noted that the Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs Appropriation Act of 2001 contained a number of anti-PRC provisions, interferes in PRC internal affairs and undermines PRC interests by focusing on the issues of Taiwan, human rights and Tibet.
“PRC-US Relations” (Daily Report, November 13, PRC)

US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright assured PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Brunei that the US would continue recognizing the PRC rather than Taiwan.
“PRC-US Talks” (Daily Report, November 15, US)


3. PRC at ASEAN

PRC Premier Zhu Rongji will visit Singapore from November 24-25 to attend the summit meeting of members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the PRC, Japan and ROK, and another summit between the ASEAN member states and the PRC later this month.
“PRC Premier’s Visit to Singapore” (Daily Report, November 13, PRC)


4. Cross-Strait Relations

Taiwanese officials said that 16 local council councilors and government officials will visit the PRC late this month to help pave way for direct trade and shipping links. Chang Yung-shan, head of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), said, “Beijing is not anticipated to respond to the opening before Taiwan unveils details of the implementation measures in mid-December.”
“Cross-Straits Talks” (Daily Report, November 15, US)

Shen Fu-hsiung, a member of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said on Monday that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s advisory group on the PRC is expected to come up with a concrete proposal on the thorny “one China” issue in a month.
“Taiwan Policy toward PRC” (Daily Report, November 13, US)


Russia


1. Diplomacy in Asia-Pacific

The Russian government adopted a federal program for socio-economic development of the Kuril Islands for 2001-2005. According to Russian Premier Mikhail Kasyanov, development was necessary in order get the local population there rid of a feeling that they were “underprivileged as compared with the population of the whole of Russia.”
“RF Development of Kuril Islands” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)

President Vladimir Putin wrote an article in the Russian Nezavisimaya gazeta on the eve of his participation in the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit promoting Russia as a partner to East Asia. Putin described the raw material resources of Siberia and some examples of Russian cooperation with East Asian countries in their development and use, as well as industrial and technology cooperation. Writing in Singapore’s Straits Times newspaper, Putin said that Russia will continue to tilt its foreign policy towards Asia and is examining practical projects aimed at turning the region into a common home.
“RF-Asian Relations” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)
“Russia’s View on Asia-Pacific” (Daily Report, November 13, PRC)


2. Japan-Russia Relations

Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono went to Moscow on a two-day visit. Yasuhita Kawamura, a Department Director of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, said that Kono would discuss issues concerning bilateral peace treaty negotiations, Russia-Japan economic relations and the two countries’ regional and strategic cooperation.
“RF-Japan Relations” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)

Japanese Prime Minister and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at a hotel in Bandar Seri Begawan on November 16 and agreed that Mori would visit Russia this year to settle the territorial issue between Japan and Russia.
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Talks” (Daily Report, November 17, Japan)

Japan and Russia will resume defense exchanges on November 28 after a tentative stoppage due to a spy incident between the two countries.
“Japanese-Russian Defense Exchange” (Daily Report, November 17, Japan)


3. Russia-PRC Military Trade

Russia’s Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye reported that Russian-made Il-76 planes could help the PRC Air Force to dominate the skies in the Straits of Taiwan in case of a possible armed conflict there, “even if US aircraft-carriers are sent to help Taiwanese separatists.” The PRC military also displayed interest in a number of other Russian-made weapons systems. Below is also Russian coverage of Russian Premier Mikhail Kasyanov’s official visit to the PRC on November 3-4, in which Russia and the PRC concluded numerous bilateral agreements.
“RF-PRC Relations” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)


4. Nuclear Program

Russian Nuclear Power Ministry spokesman Yury Bespalko reported that Russia conducted two underground subcritical nuclear tests, on October 20 and 27, at the Novaya Zemlya test site.
“Russian Sub-Critical Tests” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)

Sergey Ivanov, RF Security Council Secretary, said that the question of a possible change of the status of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces was to be considered only after 2006. The Russian Strategic Rocket Forces made a successful launch of the SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The launch will allow Russia to make a decision on whether to prolong the service of that type of ICBM for another year.
“RF Missile Force Developments” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)

Russia’s Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye reported that according to a recent poll by Russia’s ROMIR independent research center, 22.7 percent of respondents believed that countries with nuclear weapons had the right to use them to protect their interests, while 71.8 percent disagreed. 45.7 percent thought that nuclear weapons should be banned and 47.5 percent believed they should be kept as a deterrent.
“RF Public Opinion Polls on Military and Strategic Matters” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)


5. Military Reform

A November 9 session of Russian Security Council discussed a reduction of the Armed Forces. A decision was made to reduce the Russian Armed Forces by 365,000 by 2005 and to eliminate 240,000 officer-level positions. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Ivanov said that the number of servicemen will be reduced in all eleven of the Russian armed forces.
“RF Armed Forces” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)
“Russian Military Reform” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)


6. Military Operations

Two RF reconnaissance planes were reported by the Russian daily Izvestia to have detected the USS “Kitty Hawk” aircraft carrier in the Sea of Japan, and managed to avoid US radar to fly directly over the aircraft carrier. The author argued that while such reconnaissance was justified during the Cold War, now “there was no practical sense,” as the planes could have been simply shot down.
“RF Air Force Reconnaissance” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)


Nuclear Weapons


1. US Nuclear Posture Review

The 2001 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by US President Bill Clinton, requires the next US president to complete a formal nuclear posture review (NPR) by December 2001 and also mandates research on how to defeat hardened targets. Janne E. Nolan, director of international programs at the Century Foundation, argues that one reason for the absence of post-Cold War change in the nuclear force posture has been the failure of the president to challenge the assumptions driving nuclear planning, a sphere that has traditionally eluded presidential attention.
“US Nuclear Posture Review” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)


2. Russian START-III Proposals

The Russia Media Monitoring Agency (WPS) wrote that Russia does not see any political or military reasons why Russia and the US shouldn’t each reduce their nuclear arsenals to 1,500 warheads. While it is pushing for START III, the Russian Foreign Ministry again insisted that preparations are only possible “if the ABM Treaty of 1972 is preserved.”
“START III Talks” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)


3. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

The Independent Commission on the Verifiability of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty released their final report, which indicates that when the CTBT is fully in place, resources will be available for verifying compliance with the CTBT.
“Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)

B Muralidhar Reddy, writing in The Hindu, reported that Pakistan is getting closer to signing the CTBT.
“Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)


4. Indian Fissile Materials

Indian police in Hyderabad reported seizing twenty-six kilograms of low-grade uranium, and arrested six men who were trying to sell it.
“South Asia” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)


5. Iraqi Nuclear Program

Khidhir Hamza, formerly Iraq’s chief nuclear weapons scientist, has provided new information on the Iraqi nuclear program. He said Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein probably possesses a crude, two- to three-kiloton atomic bomb.
“Iraqi Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)


Missile Defense


1. Russian-PRC Perspectives on US NMD

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Colonel-General Valeriy Manilov, is in Beijing discussing with PRC officials the US plans to build up national and regional antimissile defense systems and their effect on the security of the two countries.
“Russia-PRC Missile Defense Talks” (Daily Report, November 15, US)

PRC foreign ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi expressed support on Tuesday for a proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin to cut Russian and US nuclear stockpiles, but indicated opposition to Putin’s overture to discuss the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with the US. Sun said, “As far as the US National Missile Defense is concerned, if we are to protect stability of the global strategic balance, then this system shouldn’t be built.”
“PRC View of US-Russia Nuclear Relations” (Daily Report, November 14, US)

Russia’s Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye reported that according to a recent poll, 44.4 percent of Russians thought that the creation of a US national missile defense system will increase the global arms race, 14.8 percent thought that the world would return to the Cold War, and 14.8 percent said that arms reduction and elimination treaties will be nullified.
“RF Public Opinion Polls on Military and Strategic Matters” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)

Bruce Blair, President of the Center for Defense Information, argues that the Russian nuclear force has become so debilitated by budgetary and other problems that there are circumstances under which the limited NMD system proposed by the US would obviate the Russian deterrent force.
“Russian Nuclear Strategy” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)


Australia


1. US-Australian Relations

US Pacific commander-in-chief Admiral Dennis C. Blair spoke to the Asia Society in Melbourne and said that the US-Australia alliance is one of the most important factors in a peaceful and secure Asia-Pacific region. Blair also advocated steps between regional actors to build “habits of cooperation, and to confine and manage points of contention in the region.”
“US-Australian Relations” (Daily Report, November 16, US)


2. DPRK-Australian Relations

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer arrived in Pyongyang on November 14 and held talks with the DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun. The two sides signed an agriculture cooperation accord. Downer said on Friday that Australia has offered to provide training and technical assistance on nuclear safeguards to the DPRK as part of a bid to reduce security tensions in the region.
“Australian Foreign Minister’s DPRK Visit” (Daily Report, November 15, US)
“Australian Foreign Minister’s DPRK Visit” (Daily Report, November 13, US)
“Australia Foreign Minister’s DPRK Visit” (Daily Report, November 17, US)


South Asia


1. India-PRC Border Talks

India and the PRC have concluded the eighth round of Expert Group (EG) talks after the two countries agreed to accelerate the talks on the clarification of their disputed border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Both sides exchanged maps of the middle sector of the disputed border. VR Raghavan, writing in The Hindu, argues that PRC patrols and civilians visit the border as a tactic to later justify a claim upon the territory.
“PRC-India Border Talks” (Daily Report, November 14, US)
“India-PRC Border Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)


2. India Participation in ARF

Indian President KR Narayanan thanked Singapore for supporting India for membership in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and as a full dialogue member of ASEAN.
“Southeast Asia” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)


3. South Asian Nuclear Issues

Achin Vanaik, journalist and author on nuclear issues, writes in Disarmament Diplomacy there are still opportunities for South Asia if the formally recognized nuclear-weapon states accept responsibility for their own policies, prioritizing disarmament and non-proliferation over other considerations.
“South Asia” (NPP Flash, V.2 #38)

An anti-nuclear convention took place in New Delhi, with participation by approximately 500 delegates, including fifty from Pakistan. The convention is being sponsored by 110 trade unions and NGOs.
“Indian Anti-Nuclear Convention” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)


4. India Nuclear Policy

K Subrahmanyam, convener of India’s National Security Advisory Board, said that India should have about 150 missile- and bomber-deliverable nuclear weapons in order to have an effective deterrent force against Pakistan and the PRC.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)

Sushil Kumar, Commander-in-Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf of the Indian Navy, said that India had the capacity to create its own nuclear submarine fleet in the first official admission of the existence since 1976 of an Indian national program to create its own missile-carrying nuclear-propelled submarine.
“Indian Nuclear Submarines” (Daily Report, November 14, Russia)


5. Afghanistan

Ahmed Shah Massod, the Afghani commander fighting the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, said in an interview in the New York Times that the Taliban has made open use of Pakistani regular troops. After 30,000 Afghan refugees came into Pakistan in the last month, bringing the total number of Afghan refugees to 1.8-2.1 million persons, Pakistan was reported by the Indian media as closing the border with Afghanistan to refugees.
“Afghanistan” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #43)

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