NAPSNET Week in Review 16 February, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 16 February, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 16, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-16-february-2001/

Korea


1. ROK-US Coordination in DPRK Policy

ROK President Kim Dae-jung’s office announced on Thursday that Kim will meet US President George W. Bush in Washington on March 7 for talks focusing on the DPRK.
“ROK-US Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, US)
“ROK-US Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, ROK)
“ROK-US Summit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 12, PRC)

ROK analysts said that the current framework of the three-way alliance between the ROK, the US and Japan in dealing with the DPRK is expected to change as the Bush administration favors bilateral consultations. A top ROK foreign policymaker said the ROK and the US will begin diplomatic consultations at senior levels early next month to fine-tune in earnest their policies toward the DPRK.
“Policy towards DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, ROK)
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 12, PRC)


2. US DPRK Policy

Zhao Huji, a DPRK expert with the PRC State Council Developmental Research Center, said on Monday that the PRC views closer ties between the US and the DPRK as key to peace on the Korean Peninsula, but is alarmed at perceived US unwillingness to improve ties.
“PRC View of US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 12, US)

CIA Director George J. Tenet told a Senate hearing on Wednesday that “the North Korean military appears for now to have halted its near-decade-long slide in military capabilities” and is expanding its short- and medium-range missile arsenal.
“DPRK Military Posture” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 12, US)


3. Light-Water Reactor Project

US-based General Electric (GE), which was supposed to deal with the core technology of the light-water reactors being built by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), decided on February 10 to leave the project. GE will be replaced by two Japanese firms, Hitachi and Toshiba.
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, Japan)


4. ROK-DPRK Relations

High-ranking ROK officials ruled out the possibility that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il may visit the ROK as early as this month or March.
“Kim Jong Il’s Visit to ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, ROK)

At the fifth round of military talks on February 8, the DPRK demanded that the ROK drop the concept of a main enemy from its defense white paper as a pre-condition to the next round of ministerial level meetings.
“Inter-Korean Meetings” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 12, PRC)


5. Inter-Korean Railway

DPRK authorities announced that due to “administrative reasons” they postponed the work to de-mine a border area between DPRK and ROK in order to restore railway to connect the two countries, thus unilaterally breaching the relevant agreement concluded a week ago. Officials of the DPRK and ROK met in two separate rounds of talks, hoping to wrap up deals to build a cross-border railway and ease the DPRK’s energy shortages.
“Inter-Korean Railway” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, RF)
“ROK-DPRK DMZ Accord” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, ROK)
“DPRK-ROK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)
“Inter-Korean Railway” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 12, US)

Russia is anticipating railway talks with the two Koreas to discuss the restoration of severed inter-Korean railways, after Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Seoul late this month.
“Inter-Korean Railway Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, ROK)


6. DPRK Humanitarian Issues

DPRK diplomats, operating through the Red Cross, reached an arrangement with the ROK to make possible a meeting of divided families and exchange of letters between them.
“Reunions of Separated Families” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, RF)

In its first report to the world body’s Human Rights Committee in 16 years, the DPRK said that it believed it was meeting the requirements of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which it signed in 1981.
“DPRK Human Rights” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, US)
“DPRK Human Rights Report” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, ROK)

The World Food Program (WFP) reported that it will provide 810,000 tons of food and US$93 million in aid to the DPRK this year.
“WFP Aid to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, ROK)


7. Kim Jong Il’s Birthday

One of the biggest holidays celebrated by the DPRK, the 59th birthday of DPRK’s National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il, is just a few days away. In preparation for the event, various “celebration committees” have sprung up, both in the DPRK and abroad.
“Kim Jong Il’s Birthday” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, ROK)


8. DPRK Foreign Relations: PRC, Russia

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il met with a PRC delegation led by Wang Jiarui, Deputy Minister of the PRC Central International Liaison Department (CILD). They exchanged sincere greetings from and to PRC leaders.
“PRC-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)

In a banquet celebrating the anniversary of the conclusion of the “DPRK-Russian Good Neighbor Cooperation Treaty,” the Chairman Choi of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly said that the DPRK wishes to develop all-around relations with Russia in the new century.
“DPRK-Russian Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)


China


1. India-PRC Strategic Relations

Vijay Sakhuja, Research Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, states that the PRC is developing a maritime infrastructure as part of transitioning from a continental power to a maritime power.
“India-PRC Strategic Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


2. PRC-Vietnam Army Relations

Vietnamese Defense Minister Pham Van Tra said that his country will strengthen its military ties with the PRC.
“PRC-Vietnam Army Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)


3. PRC-US Relations

Three senior US experts from the PRC are in Washington this week to meet with lawmakers, journalists, and aides of US President George W. Bush. PRC Embassy spokesman Zhang Yuanyuan called the trip a “private visit.”
“US-PRC Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, US)


Japan


1. US Security Relations

Japanese Premier Yoshiro Mori’s political position may suffer due to the recent incident when a US Los Angeles class submarine sank a Japanese vessel. Japanese mass media stress the fact that Mori upon receiving the news continued to play golf and returned to Tokyo only two hours later.
“Japanese Premier’s Position” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, RF)

US ambassador to Japan Thomas Foley said Friday that the military alliance between the US and Japan would survive the furor over the sinking of a Japanese fishing vessel by a US Navy submarine.
“US-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, US)

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and new US President George W. Bush might meet in Washington on March 3 or March 4. Mori and Bush are expected to discuss strengthening security policy coordination and the recent submarine accident.
“Japanese-US Summit Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, Japan)

US Ambassador Thomas Foley, who has been US ambassador to Tokyo under the former Clinton Administration and is now leaving for the US, reflected on his perspective of Japan-US security relations.
“US View on Japanese-US Security Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, Japan)


2. Japan-Russia Territory Dispute

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed over the phone on February 14 to meet in the Russian city of Irkutsk on March 25 for peace treaty talks. Japan decided to accept Russia’s proposal to postpone talks from late February in order to maintain the momentum of negotiations regarding a territorial dispute over four islands off Hokkaido.
“Japanese-Russian Summit Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, Japan)


3. Korean Credit Unions

The ROK government decided to provide up to 36 billion yen to support bankrupt pro-ROK credit unions in Japan on condition that the unions cope with their bad loans.
“ROK Credit Unions in Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, Japan)


Russia


1. Arms Exports

Russia exported nearly US$4 billion worth of weapons last year, 52.6 percent to the PRC and 18.2 percent to India.
“Russian Arms Sales to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, US)

The ROK will buy US$500 million worth of armaments from the RF, planning to obtain transport and training planes, helicopters and hovercraft ships.
“RF Arms for ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, RF)


South Asia


1. India Nuclear Program

Manpreet Sethi, Research Officer at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, argues that the Kargil incident proved that the dangers from nuclear and other mass destruction weapons is not significantly greater than in other regions.
“India Nuclear Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


2. India Military Hardware

The UK Director General of Defense Exports Anthony Pawson reported that India was likely to finalize the deal to buy 66 of the Hawk advanced jet trainer (AJT) by the end of March. The Indian Navy completed a deal to acquire Israel’s Barak missile defense system for nearly US$300 million. The system protects warships and has a range of 60 km.
“India-UK Military Hardware Deal” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)
“Military Hardware” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


3. India-Russia Military Relations

Russian Air Force Chief General Anatoly M. Kornukov stated that Russia was interested in helping India develop its Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and was willing to hold joint exercises for the two countries’ air forces. Kota Harinarayana, Director of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) program, stated that the LCA will be just as good as European-built jet fighters, but will cost half as much.
“India-Russia Military Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)

The Times of India reported that, contrary to US preferences, Russian Air Force Chief General Anatoly M. Kornukov said that Russia will lease India four Tu-22M3 Backfire long-range bombers and will equip them with KH-22 cruise missiles.
“India-Russia Military Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


4. India-PRC Strategic Relations

Security talks between India’s C.A. Rangachari and PRC Assistant Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded, with both sides exchanging perspectives on regional and international issues.
“India-PRC Strategic Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


5. Kashmir Ceasefire

Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes reported that forces in Jammu and Kashmir have requested that the ceasefire there not be extended past February 26. Ashwani Talwar writes in the Times of India that recent incidents of violence may cause the Indian government to lose its patience and decide not to extend the ceasefire.
“Kashmir Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)

Harish Khare writes in The Hindu that it is a reflection of the current government’s fragility and its lack of conceptual boldness that it is unable to face the political risk associated with the real pursuit of a peace dialogue.
“Kashmir” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


Nuclear Weapons


1. India Nuclear Weapons

Gurmeet Kanwal, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, writes that India’s “minimum credible nuclear deterrence” and “no first use” policy is based on the concept of deterrence by denial, where India would have to pay a high price to retaliate against an adversary’s first strike. India seeks to simultaneously deter an opponent from attacking while reassuring its own people of its preparation for attack, and all within India’s commitment to global disarmament.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)

Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes stated that the Agni II intermediate range ballistic missile, with a 2,200 km range and one-ton warhead, is ready for induction into India’s defense arsenal.
“India Nuclear Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #7)


Security


1. US NMD Statements and Responses

US Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld spoke at the Munich Conference on European Security Policy and attempted create a perception that the US-proposed NMD system was inevitable, in order to stop the issue from dividing NATO and to block Russian attempts to increase European anxiety. Rumsfeld’s statements came despite a division among Republicans over which specific missile defense plan to pursue and despite the absence in President George W. Bush’s budget of the funding needed to really put NMD on the fast-track for development.
“Rumsfeld at Munich Conference” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)
“US NMD Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)
“US Domestic Debate on NMD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)

Michael Gordon reports that Analysts reported that European ministers did not rush to support NMD, but neither did they strongly criticize the plan. NATO Secretary-General George Robertson stated that Rumsfeld’s statements forced Europe to accept NMD’s inevitability and instead focus on how it can protect US allies and when it will be deployed. Russian Defense Minister Igor D. Sergeyev, former commander of Russian strategic rocket forces, said that Russia would respond to NMD with the development of “asymmetrical” technologies that would penetrate any missile shield, in order to ensure that its deterrent force is not undermined. Military analysts and politicians in Japan said that the national missile defense system advocated by the US administration is pushing Japan toward a stronger military stance. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on Thursday that the PRC was prepared to engage in dialogue over US plans to build a National Missile Defense (NMD) system. PRC newspaper China Daily wrote that US plans to build a missile defense system would set off an arms race in space.
“European Reactions to Rumsfeld Statement” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)
“Other Reactions to Rumsfeld Statement” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)
“Analysis of NMD Debate” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)
“PRC View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, US)
“PRC View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, US)
“PRC Position on NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)

US President George W. Bush promised to engage Russia and the PRC with “patience, principle and consistency” but said the US would set its own foreign policy priorities. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called Russia “an active proliferator” of missile technology and said that Russia had no valid reason to challenge US plans to build a missile shield defense.
“US Policy toward Russia, PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 16, US)


2. US Nuclear Policy

US President George W. Bush issued three directives ordering the US Defense Department to conduct a full review of the US nuclear weapons policy and to propose how to proceed with missile defense given technological and diplomatic hurdles. These directives did not indicate an intention to withdraw the US from the 1972 ABM Treaty. An analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace states that while there are likely to be reductions to the US nuclear arms stockpile under President George W. Bush, the perspectives of many of Bush’s advisors, especially on missile defense and the 1972 ABM Treaty, indicate that there will be a net increase in the threats faced by the US from a degradation of international arms control and nonproliferation regimes under the Bush administration.
“US Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)
“US NMD Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 13, PRC)
“US Arms Control Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)


3. NATO Nuclear Policy

Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs van Aartsen promised that NATO will be more transparent about its nuclear policy in the future, and comments that the Dutch government has made no secret of its nuclear role and the fact that two Dutch F-16 squadrons based at Volkel Air Base have a nuclear strike mission.
“NATO Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #6)


Arms Control


1. Space-based Arms Race

U.S. ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament (CD) Robert Grey reaffirmed that the US was not ready to agree to launch full negotiations aimed at preventing an arms race in outer space. He reiterated that the US top priority was to launch global negotiations aimed at halting production of nuclear bomb-making fissile material.
“Arms Race in Space” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 15, US)

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