NAPSNET Week in Review 13 October, 2000

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 13 October, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, October 13, 2000, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-13-october-2000/

Korean Peninsula


1. Kim Dae-Jung Wins Nobel Peace Prize

ROK President Kim Dae-jung was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for devoting his administration to reconciliation between the ROK and DPRK.
“Kim Dae-Jung Wins Nobel Peace Prize” (Daily Report, October 13, US)


2. DPRK-US Talks

US President Bill Clinton met with Jo Myong Rok, first vice chairman of DPRK’s National Defense Commission and the second-ranking member of the DPRK government. Jo reportedly proposed a plan for the DPRK to abandon its long-range Taepodong missile project if international society provides with the financial assistance needed to launch satellites. Jo met with US Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen and discussed similar issues.
“US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 11, US)
“US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 9, US)
“DPRK-US Talks” (Daily Report, October 11, ROK)
“DPRK Envoy’s Visit to U.S.” (Daily Report, October 11, PRC)
“US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 10, US)

Jo Myong Rok met with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. He outlined his concerns about the DPRK’s security and extended an invitation to visit the DPRK. Albright will travel to the DPRK, possibly by the end of October, to prepare an unprecedented meeting between US President Bill Clinton and DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. ROK President Kim Dae-jung expects Albright to announce upon her return from the DPRK the opening of relations between the US and the DPRK, establishing liaison offices in the two capital cities, and the removal of the DPRK from the US list of sponsors of terrorism.
“US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 11, US)
“Albright To Visit the DPRK” (Daily Report, October 12, US)
“US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 10, US)
“Albright To Visit DPRK” (Daily Report, October 10, US)

Government officials, analysts, and the mass media in the ROK have generally been quite supportive of recent developments in US-DPRK relations. Many said a Clinton trip to the DPRK could only benefit the peace process. While some have drawn parallels to the historic 1972 visit to the PRC by former US President Richard Nixon, others have voiced pessimism that resumption of ties may take two years to implement. Quoting unnamed sources in the US, some ROK newspapers reported that the DPRK and the US had agreed to open liaison offices at both capitals early next year as a step toward establishing ambassadorial-level relations. ROK President Kim Dae-jung said on October 12 that it is “a matter of time” before the DPRK establishes diplomatic relations with both the US and Japan.
“ROK View of US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 12, US)
“Possible Clinton Visit to DPRK” (Daily Report, October 13, US)
“DPRK-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 13, ROK)

PRC foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao welcomed the talks between the US and the DPRK, and expressed hope that they would help to foster stability in the region.
“PRC View of US-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 12, US)

The Nihonkeizai (Nikkei) Shimbun reported that despite the improving relations between the US and the DPRK, reflected by their recent joint statement, policy coordination among the US, the ROK, and Japan has become more difficult.
“Japanese Reaction to US-DPRK Joint Statement” (Daily Report, October 13, Japan)


3. Removal of DPRK from US Terrorism List

Analysts in the ROK said the chances of the US removing the DPRK from the list of terrorism-sponsoring countries increased as the two sides have all but agreed on the deportation of Japanese Red Army hijackers. US State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher said that the US and the DPRK will work to resolve “outstanding issues” regarding terrorism. According to a joint US-DPRK statement on international terrorism, if the DPRK lives up to its word, and the requirements of US law, the US would remove the DPRK from the list of states that sponsor terrorism. There was no condition imposed by the DPRK that it be removed from the US list of terrorism sponsoring states before US Secretary of State Madeline K Albright visits.
“Removal of DPRK from US Terrorism List” (Daily Report, October 10, US)
“Japanese Criticize DPRK Hold on Terrorists” (Daily Report, October 10, US)
“US List of Terrorism Supporting States” (Daily Report, October 9, US)
“Albright To Visit the DPRK” (Daily Report, October 12, US)


4. DPRK-ROK Relations

The DPRK invited leaders of ROK political parties, organizations and individual personages to Pyongyang for the 55th anniversary of the founding of its Worker’s Party on October 10. The ROK government decided not to ratify any applications to attend the anniversary. Despite domestic criticism, forty representatives of religious, labor, arts and civic groups and scholars left to attend.
“DPRK Invitation To Attend Party Celebration” (Daily Report, October 11, PRC)
“DPRK’s 50th Workers Party Anniversary” (Daily Report, October 9, US)

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has invited Cheju Governor Woo Keun-min and the island province’s people to visit the DPRK next spring because the island provided 4,300 tons of citrus fruit to the DPRK.
“DPRK Head Invited Cheju Governor” (Daily Report, October 11, ROK)

The ROK government welcomed the DPRK removing one of the biggest stumbling blocks surrounding the unification formulas by stipulating the lower stage of federation as a situation in which the two Koreas coordinate inter-Korean relationship while retaining their respective authorities and functions.
“ROK-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, October 10, ROK)


5. DPRK Military

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has ordered a military shake-up, promoting 44 generals ahead of the 50th anniversary of the Worker’s Party. Experts in the ROK said the second military reshuffle in two years was part of a generational change with older officers being eased out.
“DPRK Military Shake-up” (Daily Report, October 9, US)

Days after the ROK announced its defense budget bill for 2001 and its mid-term defense plan (2001- 2005), the DPRK threatened that its armed forces would take corresponding self-defense steps if the ROK continues to boost its military strength despite DPRK’s repeated warnings.
“DPRK Against ROK Arms Purchase” (Daily Report, October 10, ROK)
“DPRK Criticizes ROK Arms Buildup” (Daily Report, October 9, US)


6. DPRK Proliferation

The International Atomic Energy Agency reiterated its “concern” over the DPRK’s nuclear program, saying that the IAEA cannot conclude whether the DPRK is diverting nuclear materials.
“WMD & Nuclear Proliferation” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)

The London Sunday Telegraph reported that Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi has taken delivery of North Korean No-Dong surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and launchers.
“Missile Proliferation” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


7. DPRK-Japan Talks

Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori reportedly sent a personal letter to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il asking for Japanese-DPRK summit talks. Opposition is mounting among Japan’s ruling parties and the government toward Mori’s letter to DPRK leader Kim.
“Mori’s Letter to Kim Jong-il” (Daily Report, October 10, Japan)

Japan and the DPRK have agreed to hold their third round of talks in Beijing on October 30 to discuss normalizing bilateral ties.
“DPRK-Japan Talks” (Daily Report, October 13, US)
“Japan-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 12, US)
“Japanese-DPRK Talks” (Daily Report, October 13, Japan)


8. DPRK-European Relations

European Union ministers advised their member countries to make a speedy dispatch of high-level special envoys from EU chair-country, France, and other countries to the DPRK and to expedite political dialogue and human exchanges with the DPRK. ROK Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn said that the ROK will seek support for its rapprochement with the DPRK at the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) on October 20-21.
“DPRK-EU Relations” (Daily Report, October 11, ROK)
“Asia-Europe Meeting Addresses Inter-Korean Peace” (Daily Report, October 10, US)


9. DPRK Defectors

An ROK researcher said that the number of DPRK defectors stood at 1,265 as of the end of September, with 1,048 living in the ROK.
“DPRK Defectors” (Daily Report, October 11, ROK)


China


1. Clinton Signs PNTR

US President Bill Clinton signed into law a bill granting permanent normal trade relations to the PRC and dispatched his top trade negotiator for urgent talks with PRC Premier Zhu Rongji in hopes of settling disputes that threaten the PRC’s entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
“Clinton Signs PNTR” (Daily Report, October 11, US)


2. PRC Military Threat

US Senator Daniel Akaka discussed a Congressional Research Service report that said the PRC has been busily acquiring high-tech upgrades for its military, though it still trails US forces in capability. The report asserted that a full-scale attack on and invasion of Taiwan by the PRC military could require considerable joint operation and integration of its forces to have “some” chance of success, but that exercises have not demonstrated this degree of integration.
“PRC Military Threat” (Daily Report, October 12, US)
“PRC Weapons Upgrades” (Daily Report, October 11, US)

Contemporary International Relations published an article on PRC-US relations in which Yuan Peng criticized the currently popular definitions on PRC-US relations.
“PRC View on PRC-US Relations” (Daily Report, October 11, PRC)

PR Chari, Director of the New Delhi Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, reviews the arguments, and the official Indian government position, on the threat the PRC poses to India. Chari argues that the only threat India faces from the PRC is that of nuclear and missile technology transfer by the PRC to Pakistan.
“PRC Security Threat” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)

The PRC’s official Xinhua News Agency and China Central Television (CCTV) reported that the PRC Peoples’ Liberation Army ground forces, missile corps and naval units mobilized 10,000 soldiers Friday for their biggest display of weapons and skills since 1964.
“PRC Military Exercises” (Daily Report, October 13, US)


3. Taiwan Military

Taiwan’s air force demonstrated its “new generation” of planes designed to ward off any military threat from the PRC with the fly-by of five aircraft over some 6,600 people at Taiwan’s central Chingchuankang air base as part of Taiwan’s “Double Ten” National Day celebrations.
“Taiwan Military Exercise” (Daily Report, October 11, US)


4. ASEAN

Diplomats from the PRC and the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) failed to reach an agreement Wednesday on a proposed code of conduct for territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
“ASEAN Fails to Create Spratly Code of Conduct” (Daily Report, October 11, US)

George Sioris, president of the Center for Japanese and Asian Studies in Athens, said that the recent emergence of the new acronym “APT,” or “Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three” (Japan, the PRC and the ROK), is encouraging as the ten ASEAN countries are now joining hands with the PRC, the ROK, and Japan.
“ASEAN Plus Three” (Daily Report, October 10, Japan)


Japan


1. Japan-PRC Relations

Analysts said Japan will ask the PRC to help further open the DPRK during talks between Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and PRC Premier Zhu Rongji. It will be difficult for Zhu to avoid discussing the issues of Taiwan and Japan’s plans for a Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system during his visit to Japan, which will continue to overshadow any improvements that Zhu’s visit might bring. Zhu and Mori agreed the rapid warming of DPRK’s ties with the West and the ROK was welcome, and also agreed to speed up efforts to work out a promised mutual notification system for maritime activities in waters between Japan and the PRC.
“Japan Solicits DPRK Help from PRC” (Daily Report, October 11, US)
“Sino-Japanese Talks” (Daily Report, October 10, US)
“Sino-Japanese Talks” (Daily Report, October 13, US)

Tanino Sakutaro, Japan’s Ambassador to the PRC, said that keeping friendly relations between Japan and the PRC benefits the Asia-Pacific areas and the rest of the world. PRC Premier Zhu Rongji told reporters that for the first time the PRC would not bring up the issue of wartime history, but he did when he met with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.
“PRC Premier’s Visit to Japan” (Daily Report, October 11, PRC)
“Japanese-PRC Issue of History” (Daily Report, October 10, Japan)
“Sino-Japanese Talks” (Daily Report, October 13, US)

Japan and the PRC opened a hotline on October 13 to coincide with an upcoming visit to Japan by PRC Premier Zhu Rongji. The hotline will facilitate dialogue between Japanese and PRC leaders in case of emergency.
“Sino-Japanese Hotline” (Daily Report, October 11, US)

PRC Prime Minister Zhu Rongji vowed to reduce the number of PRC research activities in seas around Japan to promote mutual understanding and confidence.
“PRC Naval Activities” (Daily Report, October 10, Japan)


2. Humanitarian Aid

The Japanese Foreign Ministry announced that it would provide Pakistan with $4.5 million in emergency grants to aid recovery from a prolonged drought.
“Japanese Humanitarian Aid” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)


3. Japan-Russia Territorial Issue

The Japanese government closer to accepting a two-stage accord with Russia over the disputed Northern Territories in which Russia would hand over two of the islands to Japan with assurances that the remaining two will also eventually be returned.
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (Daily Report, October 10, Japan)


4. US-Japan Defense Relationship

A report by the National Defense University has concluded that the US-Japan relationship is losing its prominence in the US, with potentially harmful consequences for US economic and security interests in the Asia-Pacific region. The report also said that the US should reconsider stationing 100,000 military personnel in the Asia-Pacific region, including those in Japan, while reviewing force and deployment structure in response to the evolving military technology and the changing situation on the Korean Peninsula .
“US-Japan Defense Relationship” (Daily Report, October 13, US)
“US Military Presence in Asia” (Daily Report, October 13, Japan)


Russia


1. Securing Russian Military Materiel

Russian President Vladimir Putin appealed for international financial support to convert its nuclear weapons sites and dispose of excessive weapons-usable plutonium, without which Russia would be unable to implement its disarmament and nonproliferation commitments. Graham T. Allison wrote that the risk of “loose nukes” is the only reason Russia remains important to the United States.
“Russian Nuclear Materials Disposition” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)
“Securing Russian Military Materiel” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)

Russian law enforcement officials reportedly have found 240 missile warheads in a private company’s scrap metal storage area in Russia’s Pacific port of Khabarovsk.
“Securing Russian Military Materiel” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


2. Russian Military Reform

Russian President Vladimir Putin delayed plans to cut the armed forces by a third. He said, “There will be no wholesale, massive reductions of the Russian armed forces.”
“Russia Military Reform” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


Missile Issues


1. US National Missile Defense

The Council for a Livable World Education Fund released a report that shows 58% of the public supported the US President Bill Clinton’s decision to not deploy National Missile Defense (NMD). Russian ambassador Vasily Sidorov and China’s envoy Hu Xiaodi denounced the proposed US missile shield system.
“Commentary on US NMD/TMD” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)

TY Wang concludes that the Clinton administration’s ambiguous policy represents an unbalanced approach to cross-Strait relations and could inadvertently precipitate a dangerous crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
“TMD Deployment Issues” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


2. NMD/TMD System Tests

The Jerusalem Post reported that the radar from the Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile system succeeded in detecting Syria’s launch of a longer-range Scud D.
“TMD/NMD System Tests” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


Nuclear Weapons


1. India Nuclear Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Indian government should sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, but also endorsed India’s current stance. Indian delegate to the UN Saleem Shervani said there was a need to tackle nuclear disarmament and missile proliferation through multilateralism.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)
“Indian Testing Moratorium” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)

Defense analyst Sanjay Bardi-Maharaj states that most of India’s nuclear reactors and other facilities are out of reach of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said that India must maintain an effective deterrent using both nuclear and conventional capabilities to dissuade any potential aggressors. Chief of the Indian Air Force’s Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Anil Yashwant Tipnis, said the Indian Air Force had decided on a second-strike strategy for responding to a nuclear attack.
“India Nuclear Strategy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)
“Military Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)


2. Iranian Proliferation

Deputy Director of the Department of Central Intelligence’s Nonproliferation Center A Norman Schindler said that no matter who is in power in Iran, it will continue to develop and expand its WMD and ballistic missile programs.
“WMD & Nuclear Proliferation” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


3. US Nuclear Program

The Department of Energy’s inspector general reported that deferred maintenance at US weapons plants have delayed reliability tests, repairs of major nuclear weapons, and set back the schedule for disassembling some older warheads.
“US Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


4. Russian Nuclear Policy

A study by the Russian Center for Policy Studies (PIR) argues that it is no longer necessary for Russia to maintain parity in nuclear weapons with the US and that Russian security can be provided with fewer means.
“Russian Nuclear Program” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


5. NATO Nuclear Policy

Karel Koster from PENN writes in Disarmament Diplomacy that despite the commitments made by all the NATO states at the NPT Review Conference, it is developments in US and Russian nuclear policy that will determine the future of NATO nuclear policy.
“Nuclear Policy in NATO” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


Arms Control


1. Weaponization of Space

The Federation of American Scientists reported that disagreements over nuclear disarmament and the prevention of an arms race in outer space blocked the Conference on Disarmament from adopting a work program during its 2000 session.
“Conference on Disarmament” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)

Hu Xiaodi, the PRC Ambassador on disarmament, voiced strong opposition to an arms race in outer space.
“PRC’s View on Arms Race in Outer Space” (Daily Report, October 11, PRC)


2. NPT Review Conference

Michael Tkacik argues that multilateral arms control may strengthen the nonproliferation regime, but that retaining the option to respond with nuclear weapons to biological weapons does not hinder nonproliferation efforts.
“NPT Review Conference” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


South Asia


1. Russian President Visit to India

India and Russia concluded agreements in trade, science, and culture, though there was particular emphasis on cooperation in the areas of nuclear energy, defense, and fighting terrorism. The links below provide access to information and commentary on the visit.
“Russian President Visit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)
“India-Russia Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)
“Russian Diplomacy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the governments of Russia and India is likely to be kept secret by the two countries, but is believed to include a Russian commitment to contribute to India’s nuclear energy industry.
“India-Russia Nuclear Deals” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)


2. India-Pakistan Confidence-Building

Sarah J. Diel-Hunt argues that policymakers should focus on identifying the conditions that will enable a shift away from deterrence in order to determine the preconditions for confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) adoption and implementation.
“India-Pakistan” (NPP Flash, V.2 #33)


3. Sri Lankan Election

Elections have concluded in Sri Lanka and are expected to result in a “hung” parliament, with the two leading parties receiving fairly equal numbers of seats and attempting to each cobble together a coalition with smaller parties. The LTTE launched a military offensive in the days preceding the election.
“Elections” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)
“LTTE Offensive” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)
“Recent Violence” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.1 #37)

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