Korea
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1. US View of DPRK ThreatThe head of the UN Command in Korea, General Thomas Schwarz, said in an article released Thursday that the DPRK’s insistence on devoting nearly all its resources to its army makes it “the major security threat in northeast Asia.” Schwarz wrote, “The problem is that the ‘military first’ policy provides the only conceivable means by which the regime can survive.” Admiral Dennis Blair, commander of US Pacific forces, said in an interview that he thinks that a US presence should remain key to the balance of power in Asia. Blair pointed to the DPRK as the biggest threat to the US. He noted that forward- stationed forces with homeports and home stations in Japan and the ROK will stay fairly constant, even if dramatic developments such as a Korean reconciliation occur.
“US View of DPRK Threat” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, US)
“US Troops in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, US) |
2. DPRK Missile ProgramUS Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz on July 12 reported that the DPRK currently possesses hundreds of conventional ballistic missiles that would pose immense threats to the US and the ROK if the war breaks out in the Korean Peninsula.
“DPRK Missile Capabilities” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, ROK)
US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told reporters that he did not believe the DPRK had infringed its offer of a self-declared moratorium until 2003 on testing missiles and that there was “nothing in itself wrong” with the DPRK testing missile engines.
“DPRK Missile Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, US)
“DPRK Missile Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, ROK) |
3. DPRK Diplomacy at ARFThe DPRK’s titular head of state, Kim Yong-Nam, arrived in Vietnam Wednesday on the first such visit in four decades. Vietnam has pledged to use its position as host of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) later this month to promote contacts between the DPRK and all “concerned countries.
“DPRK Visit to Vietnam” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, US)
The DPRK and the European Union will hold foreign ministers’ talks in Hanoi later this month on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), slated for July 25. The Chosun Ilbo reports that chances appear high for a high-level meeting between US Secretary of State Colin Powell and DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun at ARF.
“DPRK-EU Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, ROK)
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, ROK) |
4. DPRK-US TalksA senior US official said that the DPRK has not yet responded to a US invitation to resume talks on missiles, conventional forces and the 1994 Agreed Framework. The official DPRK newspaper Rodong Sinmun rejected US President George Bush’s offer on June 6 to hold talks with an emphasis on verification. The paper said that the DPRK “has no intention to respond to the U.S. proposal for the resumption of dialogue while allowing its sovereignty to be infringed upon.” US State Department spokesman Richard Baucher, referring to the Rodong Sinmun’s report, said that US tries not to be carried away by specific DPRK media reports and is still awaiting a proper response from the DPRK. Joseph Bermudez, a military intelligence expert who writes for Jane’s defense publications, posited that the DPRK had stockpiled enough material for up to 12 nuclear weapons and aimed to build 30 bombs by 2015.
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, US)
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, ROK)
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, US)
US National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice said that the ball is in the DPRK’s court now that the US has completed its review policy and has already proposed a wide-ranging agenda for negotiation.
“DPRK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, ROK) |
5. US-ROK Collaboration on DPRKUS Secretary of State Colin Powell will visit the ROK July 27- 28, ROK and US officials said over the weekend. Powell will discuss the DPRK with President Kim Dae-jung, Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo, and other ROK leaders.
“Powell’s ROK Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, ROK) |
6. DPRK-ROK RelationsROK President Kim Dae-jung said Wednesday that his “sunshine” policy toward the DPRK is the only means in which peace can be achieved on the Korean Peninsula. Kim earlier said that the ROK and the DPRK will resume official talks in the near future and conditions are right for an improvement in ties with the DPRK.
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, ROK)
“DPRK-ROK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, PRC) |
7. DPRK Role in VietnamThe DPRK’s state-run Radio Pyongyang and Korean Central Television Station confirmed for the first time that the DPRK sent fighter jet pilots to combat US forces during the Vietnam War.
“DPRK Participation in Vietnam War” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, ROK) |
8. DPRK-PRC RelationsPRC President Jiang Zemin received a delegation from the DPRK in Beijing. He expressed the PRC’s high regard toward its relations with the DPRK and that it is willing to consistently pursue traditional close ties with the DPRK.
“DPRK-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, ROK) |
9. DPRK DefectorsA spokesperson for Good Friends, an ROK missionary group supporting DPRK defectors, reported that the DPRK is reportedly training teenage boys and girls, who were forcefully returned after escaping to the PRC, for special duty as spies and is sending them to find other DPRK defectors.
“DPRK Policy Against Defectors” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, ROK)
The ROK government is studying a plan to allow high-ranking DPRK defector, Hwang Jang-yop to visit the US at the invitation of the US Congress during October according to a government source Wednesday. The DPRK on Saturday criticized Republican Representatives Henry J. Hyde and Christopher Cox for inviting Hwang to testify.
“DPRK Defector’s Visit to US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, ROK)
“DPRK View of Hwang’s US Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, ROK) |
10. DPRK Food AidWorld Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director Catherine Bertini criticized a report by the UN’s special rapporteur for food rights Jean Ziegler alleging that most foreign food aid sent to the DPRK was not reaching its intended recipients. Bertini stated, “Our gravest concern is that this erroneous information will undermine the political will of our donors. This will is essential to feed the over eight million hungry women, children and men in DPRK.”
“Food Aid for DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, US) |
China
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1. Beijing OlympicsThe International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the PRC the 2008 Olympics on Friday.
“Beijing Olympics” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, US) |
2. Evaluations of PRC MilitaryInternational Outlook magazine, associated with Wang Daohan, the PRC official who oversees relations with Taiwan, depicts various elements of the PRC military working together on an integrated battle plan in large-scale exercises for the first time. Until now, major exercises had been carried out concurrently but not under a joint command. The magazine quoted an unidentified senior military officer as saying that the war games were meant to “plainly tell the Taiwan public that the stable outlook between the two sides of the strait… simply does not exist.”
“PRC Military Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, US)
A senior US official said Tuesday that the US does not view the PRC as a military threat at present but is concerned about its military buildup. The official said, “This administration has been extremely clear that we would take our responsibility under the Taiwan Relations Act seriously but not support an independent Taiwan.”
“US View of PRC Military” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, US)
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that the PRC poses no threat to the US in the foreseeable future and it would be wrong for the US to openly advocate a confrontational strategy towards the country.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, PRC) |
3. Japan Defense AnalysisThe PRC’s Global Times reported that the Japanese Defense Agency’s 2001 Defense White Paper has three features: it propagates a military threat from the PRC, is stresses the development of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) as Japan ought to have the right of self-defense, and it emphasizes the importance of continuing cooperation with the US and carrying out joint research on the missile defense system.
“Japanese 2001 Defense White Paper” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, PRC)
The PRC expressed “regret and dissatisfaction” at Japan’s criticism of the PRC military build-up in a recent Japanese white paper on defense. Japan had criticized the PRC’s growing military strength as surpassing its defensive needs but also noted that the PRC military capabilities were well below those of Taiwan despite the growing strength of its navy and air force.
“PRC Reaction to Japanese White Paper” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, US) |
4. PRC-US RelationsIn prepared testimony July 10 before the US House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade, assistant US Trade Representative (USTR) Jeffrey Bader presented the administration’s case for renewing Normal Trade Relations status with the PRC for another year. Bader told the panel that granting NTR status “is in the broad US national interest,” affecting many issues.
“PRC-US Trade Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, US)
PRC President Jiang Zemin said Tuesday that ties between the PRC and the US are improving and that he is “optimistic about the future of Chinese-US relations.”
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, US) |
5. Cross-Straits ProposalsThe PRC rejected a July 7 proposal by Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) party to unite the island with the PRC in a confederation prior to eventual reunification. The PRC foreign ministry said that it maintained its proposal of reunification under the “one country, two systems” formula that has already been applied to Hong Kong and Macau.
“Cross-Straits Proposals” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, US)
“Cross-Straits Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, US)
The PRC’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan’s New Party agreed at a “historic” meeting on July 11 in Beijing to engage in occasional talks and exchanges in the future. The meeting sets a precedent for future party-to-party contacts. During the meeting, the PRC reportedly made a new seven-point offer to Taiwan to reunify under the “one country, two systems” policy. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian rejected the new offer. Chen said, “The so-called ‘one country, two systems’ offer on Beijing’s terms means our systems, our freedom and our human rights can exist only after approval of the Chinese communists.”
“Cross-Straits Political Dialogue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, US)
“Cross-Straits Unification Proposal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, US) |
6. PRC-Russian RelationsPRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said at a press conference on July 5 that the PRC will sign a treaty of friendly cooperation when PRC President Jiang Zemin pays a visit to Russia on July 15.
“PRC-Russian Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, PRC) |
Japan
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1. US-Japan Status of Forces AgreementThe Foreign Affairs Committee of Japan’s lower House of Representatives unanimously adopted a resolution calling for a review of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement. The vote followed the arrest last week of US Air Force Staff Sergeant Timothy Woodland in connection with the alleged rape of a Japanese woman near a US base on Okinawa.
“US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 10, US)
“US Forces in Japan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, US) |
2. Japanese Textbook ControversyThe ROK on Thursday adopted sanctions over Japanese history textbooks accused of whitewashing wartime atrocities. ROK President Kim Dae-jung urged Japan to learn from Germany in dealing with its past as the government froze military exchanges and blocked new imports of Japanese music and culture. ROK President Kim Dae-jung refused to meet a high-level Japanese delegation Monday, which bore a letter from Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi pledging his country’s continued efforts to develop ties with the ROK. Analysts said the ROK may not be able to force Japan to change its history books but it is determined to exact revenge by shaming Japan on the international stage.
“Japanese Textbook Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 12, US)
“Japanese Textbook Controversy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 9, US)
“Japanese Textbook Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, US) |
Russia
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1. PRC-Russian TalksPRC President Jiang Zemin is due in Moscow on July 15 for talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The two leaders will sign a broad cooperation declaration replacing an outdated Soviet-era version. However, Russian diplomats admit that Russia and the PRC have increasingly divergent foreign policy views. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said, “A strategic partnership with China is not a union–neither a civilian, nor a military one. Russia and China are very firmly following a ‘free-hands’ principle, and this includes international affairs.”
“PRC-Russian Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 13, US) |
2. Russian NavyVice Admiral Gennadiy Suchkov, presently the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, RF Navy, would become the new Commander of the Pacific Fleet.
“RF Pacific Fleet Will Get Its New Commander” (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 11, RF) |
South Asia
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1. India-Pakistan SummitIndian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee told opposition parties on Monday that Kashmir will not become the sole issue at the summit with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf hinted at the possible steps that he and Vajpayee could take at their forthcoming summit meeting to begin addressing the Kashmir issue.
“Indian View of Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28)
“Pakistan View of Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28)
“Settlement of Kashmir Issue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28)
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf wrote to All-Party Hurriyat Conference chairman Abdul Gani Bhat expressing his desire to meet the Kashmiri leader during his stay in India. The APHC said that opposition to its request for a meeting with leaders of Pakistan and India indicated that both the countries were interested only in possession of certain territory and not the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
“Role of Kashmiri Groups” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28) |
2. India-Pakistan RelationsIndian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee sent the director general of military operations (DGMO), Lieutenant General G S Sihota, to Pakistan in the hope of extending recent agreements along the Line of Control to the Siachen region.
“India-Pakistan Security Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28)
Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani suggested the formation of a Confederation of South Asian states, including India and Pakistan.
“South Asian Confederation” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28) |
3. Pakistan Domestic PoliticsPakistan President Pervez Musharraf reconstituted the National Security Council, with him as chairman, to aid and advise him on matters relating to Islamic ideology, national security, sovereignty, integrity and solidarity of Pakistan.
“National Security Council” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28) |
4. India Domestic PoliticsOpposition parties in Sri Lanka for the first time joined together in calling for an early date to debate a no-confidence motion against the government.
“Political Situation” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #28) |
Nuclear Weapons
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1. US Nuclear OversightThe Air Force has provided the first evidence that the bomb did not carry a nuclear capsule more than 40 years after a nuclear bomb was reportedly jettisoned on February 5, 1958 from a US Air Force bomber off the US East Coast and fell into the waters off Savannah, Georgia.
“US Loose Warheads” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27)
Bruce Blair of the Center for Defense Information states that there is a critical deficiency in the US system for tracking its own bomb-grade nuclear materials and that to reconstruct a reliably accurate accounting record, the US may need to inspect all of its nuclear materials, which could cost more than $1 billion.
“US Nuclear Oversight” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27) |
2. Rogue StatesWar games held at the US National Defense University since the mid-1990s have consistently assumed that leaders of so-called “rogue” states such as North Korea, Iraq, or Iran would resort to the use of weapons of mass destruction early in a war with the US.
“US Nuclear Forces” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27) |
Missile Defense
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1. US Missile Defense TestThe US Defense Department announced that a missile defense flight test will be conducted over the Pacific on July 14, 2001. The flight test, which is conducted by the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, will involve the launch of a modified Minuteman II ICBM from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
“US Test Facilities” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27) |
2. US PollA recent poll conducted for the Council for a Livable World shows that Americans are not paying close attention to the controversial missile defense issue.
“US Poll” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27) |
3. ABM TreatyReports that the Bush Administration plans to abrogate the 1972 ABM Treaty “within months, not years” is the clearest signal to date that the administration is trying to resolve apparent contradictions in earlier pronouncements by various officials. Vladimir Rushailo, the head of the Russian Security Council, warned that a unilateral US withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty would spark a news arms race. Testifying before the US Senate Armed Services Committee, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz blamed the ABM treaty for why the US is defenseless against missile attacks.
“Treaty Conflicts” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27) |
Security
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1. US Nuclear StrategyA declassified deterrence study from US Strategic Command stands in “sharp contrast” to President George Bush’s vision of a new deterrence concept, according to an article in the Washington Post on July 5, 2001. The study investigates the nature of nuclear deterrence and the refinements to US nuclear policy that might be required for nuclear deterrence in the post-Cold War era.
“US Strategic Command Report” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27)
The commander-in-chief of US Strategic Command (STRATCOM), Admiral Richard Mies, urged the US Congress to maintain a robust arsenal of modern, flexible, and highly survivable nuclear weapons and command and control facilities. As the Bush Administration completes its nuclear posture review, the aging of those weapons and hurdles to keeping them operationally viable are emerging as key issues that will need to be addressed.
“US Nuclear Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #27)
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