NAPSNET Week in Review 12 January, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 12 January, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, January 12, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-12-january-2001/

Korean Peninsula


1. US-DPRK Relations

US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on January 5 that she was sorry to end four years in office without making a deal with the DPRK, but said there was still a chance for the US to come to terms with DPRK.
“US-DPRK Relations” (Daily Report, January 8, US)

The DPRK reiterated its position that it should be negotiating with the US, not the ROK, to replace the armistice with a peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula.
“Korean War Peace Treaty” (Daily Report, January 8, ROK)


2. US Policy on Korea

ROK President Kim Dae-jung told the International Herald Tribune in an interview on Friday that he plans to visit the US soon after the inauguration of George W. Bush to persuade Bush to continue US President Bill Clinton’s support for his “sunshine” policy towards the DPRK. A top Swedish envoy said that the European Union (EU) will continue to support the dialogue process on the Korean Peninsula and fully back the engagement policy pursued by ROK president Kim Dae-jung.
“Kim Dae-jung’s US Visit” (Daily Report, January 8, US)
“EU on Inter-Korean Relations” (Daily Report, January 10, ROK)

US President Bill Clinton made a statement expressing regret for the wartime massacre at No Gun Ri. Clinton’s statement will be accompanied by the release of a report from the US Army’s inspector general that formally concludes, for the first time, that US troops shot Korean civilians during the incident.
“US Statement on No Gun Ri” (Daily Report, January 11, US)


3. KEDO Project

Japan’s Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that US President-elect George W. Bush’s administration is looking to overhaul the 1994 Geneva Agreement signed with the DPRK in order to solve suspicions regarding the DPRK’s nuclear missile project. The Bush administration is reportedly considering changing the previous plan of constructing two light-water reactors in the DPRK to that of building six oil fired power stations. Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono and ROK Foreign Minister Lee Jong-binn agreed that Japan, the ROK and the US should continue close ties in dealing with the DPRK despite the change in US administration.
“US Policy towards DPRK” (Daily Report, January 8, ROK)
“Japanese-ROK Policy Toward DPRK” (Daily Report, January 11, Japan)

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) has selected a Japanese joint team of Hitachi and Toshiba to supply turbine generators for the planned light-water reactors in the DPRK, replacing US-based General Electric.
“DPRK Nuclear Reactor Project” (Daily Report, January 10, ROK)


4. DPRK Economy

The Economist Intelligence Unit reported that the outlook for inter-Korean relations in 2001-02 is broadly good. The report also commented on the DPRK’s and ROK’s domestic political and economic conditions.
“DPRK Economic Outlook” (Daily Report, January 8, US)

The Korean “Rural Development Administration” reported that the DPRK’s grain crop fell to 3.59 million tons in 2000, down 15 percent from a year earlier. A BBC report cited Doctor Norbert Vollersten, a German doctor, and said that people in the DPRK are literally starving to death with nearly all adults being afflicted with chronic depression and being addicted to alcohol.
“DPRK Production of Grain Crop” (Daily Report, January 11, ROK)
“DPRK Food Situation” (Daily Report, January 11, ROK)

The Chinese-language Global Times carried an article on political changes in the DPRK in the new century as exemplified in the mass media.
“DPRK’s Economic Reform” (Daily Report, January 8, PRC)


5. DPRK Defectors

The ROK intelligence agency said that ten DPRK Nationals, including two infants, defected to the ROK. They were the first this year to defect.
“DPRK Defectors” (Daily Report, January 9, US)
“DPRK Defectors” (Daily Report, January 10, ROK)

According to a US Justice Department report, 27 DPRK nationals applied for political asylum in the US between 1997 and 1999, but none were approved.
“DPRK Defectors to US” (Daily Report, January 10, ROK)


6. Inter-Korean Transportation

A senior ROK Unification Ministry official said that the ROK will propose to sign a marine transportation accord this year to prevent problems in inter-Korean maritime trade.
“Inter-Korean Shipping Agreement” (Daily Report, January 11, ROK)

The ROK delivered a draft agreement on a number of key issues to the DPRK, which covered the provision of electricity, measures to prevent flooding along the Imjin River, joint-efforts to construct rail and road links as well as an industrial complex in Kaesong.
“Inter-Korean Talks” (Daily Report, January 10, ROK)

In a report on the inter-Korean railway project, Park Hong-kyu, a research fellow of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), stated the need for the ROK’s early inducement of foreign capital for the project.
“Inter-Korean Railway Project” (Daily Report, January 8, ROK)

Li Je- chung, ROK Ambassador in Moscow, spoke about the benefits to be created by the proposed restoration of ROK-DPRK railway transportation because all inter-Korean trade is currently carried across the sea. Li also said bilateral talks are being held about selling RF-made Su-35 and Ka-52 “Black Shark” helicopters.
“ROK Ambassador to RF on ROK-DPRK-RF Relations” (Daily Report, January 11, RF)


7. Inter-Korean Relations

Cho Hyun-jung, the president of the Internet solutions company Bitcomputer, a domestic Internet company, is promoting a plan to have ROK computer specialists provide information technology training to DPRK citizens.
“ROK Aid to DPRK” (Daily Report, January 11, ROK)

The ROK’s Red Cross chief said that Red Cross talks between the two Koreas will resume in March to discuss building permanent meeting places for separated families. Professor Lee Byung-woong of Hanseo University has been appointed to represent the ROK in the Red Cross talks on family reunions. The DPRK proposed holding a third round of Red Cross talks with the ROK in January to discuss humanitarian issues, including family reunions. Suh Young-hoon, the head of the ROK Red Cross proposed to the DPRK that the third reunion of families be held February 26-28.
“Red Cross Talks” (Daily Report, January 8, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Talks” (Daily Report, January 11, US)
“Red Cross Talks” (Daily Report, January 11, ROK)
“Family Reunion” (Daily Report, January 11, ROK)


8. DPRK Cultural Exports

DPRK opera singers will visit the US for performances next month in major US cities, hosted by a pro-DPRK Korean-American group.
“DPRK Singer to Perform in US” (Daily Report, January 8, ROK)


China


1. United Nations

Shen Guofang, PRC deputy permanent representative to the UN, said that the PRC hopes that the UN will be able to play a more powerful and fairer role in preventing regional conflicts in the new century. He said, “The Chinese Government is concerned about how to increase the number of developing countries represented at the UN.”
“PRC Position on Role of UN” (Daily Report, January 8, PRC)


2. PRC-Taiwan Trade Links

China Daily reported that two ships, loaded with almost 200 local government officials, tourists and reporters, were the first ships to sail from Taiwan to the mainland in 51 years. They arrived at a port in Xiamen on January 2. The opening is largely symbolic, as there has been traffic and other contact between the Taiwanese islands and Xiamen for years, although contact is banned under Taiwanese law.
“Mini-Three Links” (Daily Report, January 8, PRC)

PRC Vice Premier Qian Qichen told representatives of Taiwan’s two main opposition parties who were visiting the PRC that the three direct trade, transport and postal links between the PRC and Taiwan could be established as an “internal affair within one country.” Such statements, if true, appeared to be a softening in the PRC’s previous demand that Taiwan must first accept the “One China” principle before talks on the three links could begin. Some analysts believe the PRC is merely playing to the incoming US administration and has not altered its uncompromising stance on reunification. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s top PRC policy adviser on policy towards the PRC, Lee Yuan-tseh, urged the PRC on Thursday to deal directly with Chen’s government instead of wooing the island’s opposition parties.
“Cross-Straits Relations” (Daily Report, January 8, US)
“Cross-Strait Relations” (Daily Report, January 10, US)
“Cross-strait Relations” (Daily Report, January 11, US)

Delegations from the Kuomintang Party and the New Party from Taiwan met officials of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation on Saturday to discuss how to push ahead with three direct links across the Taiwan Straits. Xu Shiquan, Director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argued that the so-called “mini-three links” proposal is “an utterly inadequate measure” for boosting cross-Straits economic and trade ties.
“Mini-Three Links” (Daily Report, January 8, PRC)


3. US Arms Sales to Taiwan

Taiwan has signaled that it may ask the US Bush administration to sell it four Kidd-class guided-missile destroyers to counter the PRC’s recently purchased Russian-made destroyers. The request would likely to be made before the US and Taiwan hold annual talks on arms sales in April. US Defense Department spokesman Kenneth W. Bacon said that by mutual agreement, neither the US nor Taiwan comments on arms sale requests.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (Daily Report, January 8, US)


4. US Policy on PRC

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhu Bangzao condemned the US over its decision to pass an amendment concerning human rights on Macao.
“PRC-US Disputes on Macao” (Daily Report, January 8, PRC)

The Washington Times released an opinion editorial by powerful US Senator Jesse Helms that said that perhaps the most sensitive issue for President-elect George W. Bush will be the confrontation with the PRC over Taiwan.
“US Role in Cross-strait Relations” (Daily Report, January 9, US)

US Pacific Command chief Admiral Dennis Blair said, after meetings with Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and other ministers, that US policy on the PRC/Taiwan issue would be unchanged when George W. Bush becomes president.
“US-China Policy” (Daily Report, January 11, US)

The PRC rejected a US Defense Department report entitled “Proliferation: Threat and Response” which accused PRC “entities” of selling ballistic missile or nuclear technology in defiance of non-proliferation agreements. The report that said around a dozen countries were pursuing offensive biological and chemical weapons programs, mainly with help emanating from Russia and the PRC.
“PRC Missile Sales” (Daily Report, January 11, US)


5. PRC Foreign Policy

PRC People’s Liberation Army Deputy Chief of Staff Xiong Gwang Kai said during meetings with Japanese Social Democratic Party Chairperson Takako Doi, that the prospect for tension reduction on the Korean Peninsula “would take a winding road, not a straight one, but would eventually evolve.” Xiong was also supportive of the idea of establishing a non-nuclear zone in Northeast Asia.
“PRC View on Tension Reduction on Korean Peninsula” (Daily Report, January 11, Japan)
“PRC View on Denuclearization of Northeast Asia” (Daily Report, January 11, Japan)


6. Military Hardware

Ten Russian-made Su-30MMK fighters were delivered to the PRC Air Force, he first of the delivery of 40 (according to other sources, 45) modern aircraft as stipulated by a contract signed in 1999.
“RF Delivered Fighters to PRC” (Daily Report, January 11, RF)


Japan


1. Japan-US Security Cooperation

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori has decided to create a security policy consultation group that will likely discuss lifting restrictions on exercising the right of collective self-defense and full participation in United Nations peacekeeping operations. These steps were recently requested by a group of US experts.
“Japanese-US Security Cooperation” (Daily Report, January 11, Japan)


2. Japan-Russia Summit

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to hold summit talks in Irkutsk, Siberia, on February 17 and 18. During the talks, the Japanese and Russian governments are expected to announce a joint statement that has been tentatively dubbed the “Irkutsk Declaration.”

“Prime Minister’s Visit to Russia” (Daily Report, January 11, Japan)


Russia


1. Military Readiness

Russian Air Force Commander-in-Chief Anatoly Kornukov presented a report to a college meeting of RF Defense Ministry that concluded that the state of combat readiness was approaching a level at which the Air Force might lose the ability to perform its tasks.
“RF Air Force Readiness Doubted” (Daily Report, January 11, RF)

Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Vladimir Kuroyedov stated that he believed that, as a result of “institutional approach” of the recent years, inadequate financing and neglect of the Navy on the part of the authorities the Navy had been gradually losing the ability to perform its tasks.
“RF Navy Endangered” (Daily Report, January 11, RF)


Nuclear Issues


1. Pakistan Missile Test

Pakistan announced that it will test its indigenously developed Haider-1 ballistic missile in March. The Haider-1 is reported to have a range of 300 km and be nuclear capable.
“Pakistan Missile Test” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)


2. Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces

Russia’s third missile regiment armed with “Topol-M” Inter-continental Ballistic Missiles (ICMB) entered into active duty in the Red Banner Taman Division of RF Strategic Nuclear Forces. The regiment’s three missiles are combat-ready, while the fourth is undergoing final technological operations.
“RF Strategic Nuclear Forces Development” (Daily Report, January 11, RF)

The Russian RIA-Novosti news agency quoted a senior Russian General Staff official as saying that reports that Russia was redeploying short-range nuclear weapons was false and a provocation. Analysts reported that the reported deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad puts the issue of NATO enlargement into the three Baltic states back on the front burner and strengthens their case for membership.
“Russian Tactical Nuke Deployment” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)
“NATO Enlargement” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


3. US Nuclear Troops

The US Defense Department announced the reversal of a prohibition that has prevented members of the National Guard and the Reserves from serving in the elite strategic nuclear forces.
“US Nuclear Troops” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


Missile Defense


1. US Politics

President-elect George W. Bush began forming concrete policy out of his campaign promise to implement a national missile defense system and reduce troop deployments. Secretary of Defense-designate Donald Rumsfeld said that refashioning the US military to meet new challenges will mean building a missile defense system, improving force readiness and strengthening intelligence and space capabilities.
“Bush Administration on NMD” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)

An editorial in the New York Times argues that because of the great number of uncertainties surrounding the National Missile Defense system, it is difficult to understand why the Bush administration would push for rapid deployment.
“NMD Commentary” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


2. PRC Commentary

The PRC criticized the incoming George W. Bush administration, saying the US missile defense proposals will have “formidable, adverse global impacts.” Sha Zukang, the PRC Foreign Ministry’s top arms control official, wrote that the PRC would focus on the US National Missile Defense (NMD) in 2001. He said, “We expect that the new U.S. government will weigh the pros and cons carefully and make a sensible judgment.”
“PRC Criticizes US Security Policy” (Daily Report, January 9, US)
“PRC on NMD” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


Nonproliferation Efforts


1. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John Shalikashvili, released his report this week on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The report, commissioned by US President Bill Clinton, stated that the US must ratify the CTBT if there is to be an effective campaign against the spread of nuclear weapons. Colin L. Powell, the secretary of state-designate, backed the treaty after he retired as chairman of the Joint Chiefs in 1993, while President-elect George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld, the defense secretary-designate, have opposed the treaty. Several organizations released statements welcoming the CTBT report.
“Shalikashvili Report on CTBT” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)
“Responses to Shalikashvili Report” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


2. Proliferation Threats

The US Secretary of Defense released a comprehensive study of the status of proliferation and US strategies to counter it. The report, which is entitled “Proliferation: Threat and Response,” presents the Defense Department’s public analysis of countries that have or may be developing weapons of mass destruction. Bill Gertz wrote that the US Defense Department reported that Russia has increased its reliance on battlefield nuclear arms and hidden stocks of germs and poison gas to compensate for its declining army, veritably lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
“US Defense Department Report” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)
“Russian Nuclear Policy” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)

A bipartisan panel, led by Lloyd N. Cutler, a former White House counsel in the Clinton administration, and former Senator Howard H. Baker Jr., a Republican, and established by Energy Secretary Bill Richardson to review US Department of Energy programs designed to safeguard Russian nuclear material, released its report. They called for spending up to $30 billion in the next eight to 10 years to expand and improve American programs to safeguard Russian nuclear materials.
“US Energy Department Report” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


3. Nuclear Threat Initiative

Former US Senator Sam Nunn and CNN founder Ted Turner announced the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a private foundation dedicated to the worldwide elimination of weapons of mass destruction.

“Nuclear Threat Initiative” (NPP Weekly Flash, V.3 #2)


South Asia


1. Displaced Persons

Mahendra P. Lama and Sumbul Rizvi Khan spoke on the refugee management process in South Asia, the participation of refugees in terrorism and other illegal activities, Indian policy on refugees, and the role of the UNHCR in coping with the problem.
“Displaced Persons” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)


2. Indian Military

India’s indigenously developed Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) underwent a successful testing, but analysts do not expect it to be ready for combat until 2007 or 2012. Jasjit Singh argues that unless planning takes into account the delayed production, a large fighter gap of 10-12 squadrons will emerge relative to the PRC’s fighter force.
“Military Aircraft” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)


3. India-Pakistan Relations

Amitabh Mattoo argues in an editorial in the Times of India that, in this time of potential entente between India and Pakistan, India needs to develop a coherent policy on Pakistan to prevent dialogue from being held captive by those on both ends of the political spectrum in India.
“Security Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)


4. Ceasefire

Praveen Swami, writing in Frontline Magazine, argues that conflicting interests in Jammu and Kashmir and in Pakistan seem determined to disrupt the ceasefire agreement and the larger peace process.
“Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)

Sources within the Indian Border Security Forces reported that Pakistani troops fired “heavily” upon Indian positions along the Line of Control in Jammu, breaking a month-long lull in cross-border violence. Pakistani Major General Rashid Qureshi denied the firings and also reported that the withdrawal of troops from along the Line of Control had been completed.
“Military Actions” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee offered to meet with Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf under certain conditions. Mansoor Ijaz argues that the question is not whether India can trust Musharraf, because the Pakistani Army is the only institution in Pakistan that can make a peace agreement stick, but whether Musharraf can arrange a summit within the constraints of militant groups.
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)

The All-Parties Hurriyat Conference reported that their executive council decided Abdul Gani Bhatt would be empowered select the team to visit Pakistan. Bhatt decided not to appoint the team until India released passports for all seven members.
“APHC Visit to Pakistan” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)


5. Li Peng’s India Visit

The Times of India reported that an upcoming visit to India by Li Peng, chairman of the PRC’s National People’s Congress, is evidence that the PRC and India are investing more in their bilateral relationship. His trip is expected to pave the way for a visit by PRC Premier Zhu Rongji later this year. Chandra B. Khanduri argues that the PRC is interested in settling its border dispute with India so that it gains control of the Aksai Chin-Xinjiang road. Zhang Mingsong, director of the PRC’s apex trade body, expressed concern over the anti-dumping measures put into place by India against some PRC-produced goods.
“Foreign Relations: PRC” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)
“PRC-India Relations” (Daily Report, January 9, US)

Li Peng, chairman of the PRC’s National People’s Congress, started off talks with Indian politicians by saying the world’s two most populous countries had to work together for global peace. Li also said that there had been no nuclear assistance to Pakistan. Indian parliamentary speaker G.M Balayogi told Li that India was not engaged in “an arms race” and her nuclear tests in 1998 were “not directed against any country” but aimed at building a nuclear deterrent.
“Sino-Indian Relations” (Daily Report, January 11, US)


6. Shanghai Five Group

Pakistan submitted an application for membership to the Shanghai Five group. While the PRC had been non-committal in its response, a Russian official stated Pakistan would not join the group.
“Shanghai-Five Bid” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)


7. LTTE Ceasefire

There has been growing pressure upon the Sri Lankan government to respond to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam unilateral ceasefire.
“LTTE Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #2)

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