NAPSNET Week in Review 11 May, 2001

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Korea


1. DPRK Nuclear Program

William J. Perry, former US Defense Secretary, said that, “It is likely that the North has one or two nuclear weapons at most, although it is uncertain at the moment.” The former defense secretary said in an exclusive interview with Chosun Ilbo that, “If it were not for the Geneva Agreement in 1994, the North would have dozens of nuclear weapons by now.”
“DPRK Nuclear Warheads” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


2. DPRK Missile Program

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il told European officials on Thursday that the DPRK will launch no ballistic missiles until at least 2003. Javier Solana, the European Union security affairs chief, said however, that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has not renounced the right to export missile technology. ROK President Kim Dae-jung said Sunday that the DPRK’s decision to maintain its moratorium on missile tests will help ease tension between the DPRK and the US.
“DPRK Ballistic Missiles” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)
“DPRK Position on Missile Test and US Response” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)
“ROK View of DPRK Missile Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, ROK)


3. DPRK-US Talks

US Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage said that he expected that the US and DPRK could have talks “in the near future,” after the US had completed a review of policy on DPRK “in a few weeks.” ROK President Kim Dae-jung called for an early resumption of talks between the US and the DPRK. Victor Cha, assistant professor at Georgetown University’s Department of Government and School of Foreign Service, said the administration could use adherence to the 1994 Agreed Framework as an “important window on North Korean intentions” before moving on other issues. Officials and analysts said Thursday that the US plan to resume dialogue with the DPRK is improving prospects for positive relations between the ROK and the DPRK and their second summit talks.
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, US)
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, US)
“ROK Position on Peninsula Reconciliation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, ROK)
“DPRK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)

Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson stated that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il is pointing to the US policy toward the DPRK as the biggest obstacle to a second inter-Korean summit.
“DPRK View of US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, ROK)

DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan is likely to visit Washington in June to discuss the resumption of missile negotiations with the US, following an invitation from a US think tank.
“DPRK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, ROK)

Leon V. Sigal, director of the Northeast Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council, said that the focus on military power in the foreign policy of the US President George W. Bush administration is preventing the engagement of the DPRK.
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, US)


4. Light-Water Reactor Project

Despite ROK officials’ repeated denials, the ROK media is reporting that the US is indicating that the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) should provide the DPRK with thermal plants instead of nuclear reactors which they fear may be diverted to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
“US View of DPRK Missiles” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, ROK)
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, US)
“Light-Water Reactor Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, ROK)


5. DPRK-European Relations

France has decided to recognize the DPRK government, ROK and French sources in Seoul said Tuesday, and will announce it most likely ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers slated for early next week in Brussels. France on Thursday denied a recent news report on its normalization of diplomatic ties with the DPRK.
“France-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, ROK)
“DPRK-France Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il met last week with the visiting European Union (EU) delegation led by Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson, after which Persson said that they had a “lively, open discussion” in the first of three scheduled meetings with DPRK leader Kim Jong-il.
“DPRK-European Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)

EU officials met senior officials of the US State Department and the National Security Council about their trip to the DPRK to “compare notes” and received a “clear expression of appreciation” from them. Danielsson repeated that the European Union could not and did not intend to interfere with the diplomatic efforts of the US.
“EU Visit to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, US)

Dutch Ambassador to the ROK Henry de Vries arrived in Pyongyang on Monday, marking the first time that a top foreign envoy assigned to both Koreas has visited the DPRK capital.
“Dutch Envoy Visit’s to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


6. Inter-Korean Relations

A group of ROK citizens plan to visit the DPRK May 31-June 2 aboard a Trans-Siberian Railway train, in commemoration of the first anniversary of the inter-Korean summit last June and to help resume the dialogue between the two sides, said Representative Kim Seong-ho of the ruling Millennium Democratic Party (MDP).
“ROK Lawmakers to Visit DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, ROK)

ROK officials said Thursday that the DPRK recently withdrew the workforce and construction equipment from where it had been preparing for the reconnection of severed inter-Korean rail line, dashing hopes that the railway would be completed by September.
“Inter-Korean Railway Project” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


7. DPRK Leader’s Son

The ROK JoongAng Ilbo daily published an unconfirmed report Thursday that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has canceled a secret visit to the PRC because of the incident allegedly involving his son who was deported from Japan to the PRC last week. Kim Jong-nam, his son, returned to Pyongyang on a Koryo Airlines flight, according to a source in the PRC capital.
“Kim Jong-il’s PRC Trip” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, US)
“DPRK Leader’s Son” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, ROK)
“Whereabouts of Kim Jong Il’s Son” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, ROK)
“Kim Jong Il’s Son” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, ROK)

According to officials on May 4, the Japanese government’s decision to deport a man believed to be the eldest son of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il reflected its desire to prevent the case from adversely affecting Japan’s relations with that country. The man’s detention became public knowledge, compelling the government to settle the case before any delay could generate public opposition to deportation.
“Kim Jong-nam’s Deportation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


China


1. US Reconnaissance Flights

PRC Deputy Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing, explaining the PRC decision not to allow the US to fly home its plane stranded on Hainan island, said that such a move would arouse “strong indignation and opposition in the Chinese population.” PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi expressed that the US side should adopt a pragmatic and constructive attitude to properly solve the US EP-3 spy plane issue.
“US Spy Plane” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, US)
“PRC Position on EP-3 Plane” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)
“US Spy Plane” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, US)

A US defense official said that a US Air Force plane on Monday flew the first US reconnaissance flight off the PRC coast since the April 1 collision between a Navy spy plane and a PRC fighter jet. The PRC on Tuesday protested the resumption of US surveillance flights near its coastal waters.
“US Reconnaissance Flights off PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, US)
“US Reconnaissance Flights” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, US)


2. PRC-US Relations

A US editorial said that now that the US President George W. Bush Administration has raised the issue of military-to-military contacts with the PRC, it might be a good time to think about what the US goals are for such exchanges.
“US-PRC Official Exchanges” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, US)

At a meeting with former US President Bill Clinton on Wednesday, PRC President Jiang Zemin affirmed his commitment to work on Sino-US relations.
“Jiang-Clinton Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, US)

The PRC promised Wednesday that despite deteriorating ties with the US, the PRC said it would not violate its commitments on military cooperation with Pakistan.
“PRC-Pakistan Military Cooperation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, US)


3. Alleged PRC Nuclear Test

According to US intelligence officials, the PRC is stepping up preparations for an underground test at its Lop Nor nuclear weapons testing facility that could be carried out in the next several days. The officials said that they did not know if the RC-135 Rivet Joint flight on May 7 was looking for electronic signals in eastern PRC that may be related to the test.
“Alleged PRC Nuclear Test” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, US)


4. PRC Missile Deployment

According to an unnamed defense source, the PRC has built two fixed missile launch sites in its southeastern provinces and is planning to build more. The source said that the fixed missile launch site construction project, named the “Long Wall Project,” is aimed at the US, not Taiwan.
“PRC Missile Deployment” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, US)


5. India-PRC Relations

The Hindu reports that the PRC and Russia will sign a treaty of friendship, their first since the last such treaty collapsed in 1979, driven in part by their similar strategic adversities. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhang Qiyue ruled out a strategic triangle between the PRC, India and Russia.
“India-PRC Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


6. Cross-Straits Military Balance

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian commissioned a batch of French-made Mirage fighter jets but ruled out an arms race with the PRC and urged it to renounce its threat of invasion.
“Cross-Straits Military Balance” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, US)


7. Taiwan-US Relations

Lawmakers and defense specialists in Taiwan are questioning the need and price of the arms sales that the US has agreed to sell Taiwan.
“US Arms Sales to Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, US)

Taiwanese President Chen Shui Bian on May 8, Chen said that the US Bush administration places importance on the security of the Taiwan Strait.
“Taiwanese View on US Policy Toward Cross-Strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


Japan


1. US-Japan Relations

US Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage on May 8 referred to Japan as the US’s “most important alliance in Asia.” Armitage said, “As a lot more of U.S. thinking turns toward Asia, I’d like to see a relationship with Japan that is like that of the relationship with Great Britain.”
“US-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, US)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi plans to visit the US in June to hold his first summit with US President George W. Bush, according to government sources. Koizumi chose the US as his first foreign port of call as prime minister because he believes the Japan-US relationship is the nation’s most important foreign partnership, they said.
“Japanese-US Summit Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


2. Japan-US Security Alliance

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Japanese Defense Agency Director General Gen Nakatani may meet in Washington on May 25 to confirm the importance of promoting technical interchanges between the two countries in military equipment, especially that related to information technology, such as communications systems for command control and prevention of cyber attacks.
“Japanese-US Defense Talk” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)

Keiichi Inamine, governor of Japan’s Okinawa prefecture, will visit the US next week to ask for a reduction of its forces on the southern island.
“US Troops on Okinawa” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, US)


3. ROK-Japan Joint Naval Exercise

The ROK defense ministry said on Tuesday that a joint naval exercise with Japan that was set for June would be postponed indefinitely unless Japan made an effort to rectify the school books that ROK officials believe justify Japanese colonization of Korea.
“ROK-Japan Joint Naval Exercise” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 8, US)


4. Japanese History Textbook

The ROK government’s official request on May 8 for revisions to an authorized Japanese middle school history textbooks put the Japanese government in a difficult position. While the government apparently is determined to reject the ROK request it has been at pains to work out a way to prevent the already strained relations from further deteriorating.
“Japanese History Textbook” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)

In a phone conversation with PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, Japanese new Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka stressed that the Japanese Government will take China’s stance on the issue of the history textbook seriously, and will continue to adhere to the one-China principle, not supporting Taiwan’s “independence.”
“PRC-Japanese Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)
“PRC-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, US)


5. PRC-Japan Relations

The Japanese Foreign Ministry said on Friday that Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka will likely visit the PRC at the end of this month as her first trip after taking office.
“PRC-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, US)


6. Japan-Russia Relations

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 7 discussed over the phone a peace treaty between Japan and Russia and other issues.
“Japanese-Russian Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)


South Asia


1. India-Russia Talks

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov arrived in India for discussions with Indian officials on security and other topics of mutual interest. Ivanov is expected to explore what developing India-US ties means for Russia.
“India-Russia Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


2. India-Pakistan Military Issues

Pakistani military spokesman Major General Rashid Qureshi denied reports that he had accused India of creating a war-like situation in conducting large military exercises near the border. Indian Army spokesman Colonel Shruti Kant stated that the exercises were India’s largest in thirteen years, involved 60,000 troops, and were organized around the theme of tactical maneuvers in a nuclear conflict.
“Military Exercises” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)

Retired Pakistani Air Marshal Asghar Khan, also head of the Tehrik-e-Istaqlal party, stated that India never posed a threat to Pakistan and that it was Pakistan that started the wars in 1965 and 1971.
“Pakistan-India Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


3. Pakistan-US Relations

High-level contacts between the US and Pakistan continue to develop with the invitation by US President George Bush to Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf to visit the US for five days in July.
“Pakistan-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


4. India-Kashmir Dialogue

Jammu and Kashmir Democratic Freedom party representatives Maulana Mohammad Abdullah Tari and Salim Gilani stated to the media that the participation of Pakistan in the talks was not a precondition to participation by the JKDF.
“India-Kashmir Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


5. LTTE Statement

In a three-page statement, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) criticized the Sri Lankan government for unleashing a major military offensive at the end of the LTTE’s four-month unilateral ceasefire. It accused the government of attempting to scuttle the two-year peace effort. Official sources stated that the Sri Lankan government indicated to Norwegian negotiators that it is prepared to enter into an agreement with the LTTE to reduce hostilities in order to move the peace process forward.
“LTTE Statement” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)
“Peace Process” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


Russia


1. Russian Submarine

A Russian Victor-III class nuclear submarine was reportedly towed to port after an apparently minor incident in the Barents Sea on April 14, 2001. The Russian Northern Fleet vice-chief Igor Dygalo said that it was “sudden naval exercises” to train towing the submarine in emergency situation.
“Russian Submarine” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)


Nuclear Weapons


1. US Nuclear Force Posture Review

Options under considerations by the Bush Administration for changing the US nuclear posture includes taking most B-52 and B-2 bombers out of the nuclear force, and shifting some targets from Russia to China, according to US officials and an article in the Washington Post. The National Security Archive published declassified documents, released under the US Freedom of Information Act, provide new information about development of the so-called launch-on-warning doctrine, which continues to dominate US nuclear planning in the 21st century.
“US Nuclear Force Posture Review” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)

The Council for a Livable World published an Issue Brief that argues that the nuclear force posture review, being conducted by the US Defense Department, “should result in the removal of all nuclear weapons from hair-trigger alert.” William Arkin writes in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that President Bush’ promises to take US nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert and make unilateral reductions in the arsenal are unlikely to be kept.
“De-Alerting of US Nuclear Weapons” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)


2. Nuclear Theory

Michael Kinsley states in the Washington Post that despite US President George Bush’s assurances that deterrence is an anachronistic concept, Mutually-Assured Destruction (MAD) continues to function and complicates the case for strategic defense as long as the US lacks an infallible missile shield.
“Nuclear Theory” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)


3. India Missile Program

The US-based Defense News reported that sources within India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) stated that India was preparing to test launch the Surya or Agni IV with a range of 5,000 km, its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh denied that India intended to test an ICBM.
“India Missile Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)


Missile Defense


1. US Missile Defense Diplomacy

In a speech delivered at the US National Defense University on May 1, President George W. Bush said that the US and its allies should move beyond the constraints of the ABM Treaty towards a new concept of deterrence that relies on both offensive and defensive forces, including a national missile defense system. Bush stated the US intention to “move beyond the constraints of the 30-year-old ABM treaty” in the pursuit of “a new framework that allows us to build missile defenses to counter the different threats of today’s world,” proliferation threats initiated by “some of the world’s least responsible states.”
“Bush Speech at NDU” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)

Prior to his speech, US President George Bush made a series of short calls to Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, French President Jacques Chirac, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and NATO Secretary General George Robertson “to begin the consultation process.” The conversations lasted about ten minutes each, according to a senior US official.
“US MD Diplomacy” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)


2. Commentary on Bush Speech

An editorial in the New York Times states, “The impulse behind Mr. Bush’s plan is reasonable,” but that the “strategic architecture” envisioned by Bush cannot be realized if the US rashly moves ahead on its own to build a missile shield and abrogates the ABM treaty. President Bush’s speech includes a pledge to “move quickly to reduce nuclear forces,” and it is expected that specific numbers will be announced later this year.
“Bush Speech: Nuclear Issues” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)

Michael R. Gordon writes in the New York Times that US President George Bush outlined his vision but did not outline how this vision would be achieved. Kurt Gottfried, chairman of the Union of Concerned Scientists, argues that there is no reason to quickly abrogate the 1972 ABM Treaty as it will some time until we can determine if missile defense is viable and worth the security costs of breaking out of the ABM Treaty. Steven Mufson and Walter Pincus write in the Washington Post that significant advancements in the technology of missile defense are needed before an effective missile shield could be deployed. The Lehrer NewsHour hosted a debate by experts on missile defense.
“US Commentary on Speech” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)


3. Western Reactions to Bush Plan

Media reported many comments by government leaders of countries allied with the US and others. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said, “We believe that in such a delicate area as security we cannot make any unthought-out steps and we cannot destroy what is already working well in the interests of international stability and security without guarantees that other proposals may work better.” Russia remained unconvinced about US anti-missile defense plans after initial talks Friday, but both sides pledged to keep talking. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz held two hours of talks at the Russian Foreign Ministry and also met Russia’s chief of the General Staff before leaving Moscow.
“Reactions to Speech: Russia” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)
“Russian Views of Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, US)

US allies in Europe responded positively to Bush statements regarding nuclear arms reductions and his intention to closely consult with US allies, but did openly support US plans to pursue missile defense.
“Reactions to Speech: Europe” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)
“Reactions to Speech: Australia, New Zealand” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)
“US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, US)

US presidential envoy James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, met with Australian opposition Labour Party leader Kim Beazley in Melbourne on Friday to explain US President George W. Bush’s decision to deploy a missile shield. The conservative coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard has been among the new Bush administration’s most vocal supporters, while the Labour opposition opposes plans to develop the missile system.
“Australian Views of Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, US)


4. Asian Reactions to Bush Plan

PRC state-run Xinhua News Agency quoted unidentified analysts as saying the decision will “spark a new arms race and create a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.” PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said on Thursday that the PRC remains “firmly opposed” to President Bush’s plans to develop a missile defense system but is ready to discuss the issue with a US mission led by Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly on May 14 and 15.
“Reactions to Speech: PRC” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #18)
“PRC View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 10, US)
“US NMD Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)
“PRC Position on US NMD Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, PRC)

ROK presidential spokesman Park Joon-Young said, “The president expressed an understanding of the US seeking a missile defense for new security threats in the post-Cold War era. The president expected the US government to push the plan through close consultation with its allies and other nations concerned in a way that promotes world peace and security.” Senior ROK officials expressed their “understanding” of the US missile shield plan Thursday, but avoided offering a clear position on the issue, fearing they could further complicate inter-Korean relations.
“ROK View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 9, US)
“ROK Views of US Missile Defense Plan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 11, ROK)

The DPRK’s Pyongyang Broadcasting Company cited the exact words of President Bush regarding the ABM Treaty, but did not mention his official recognition of the need for Missile Defense. “This is the very proof of U.S. warmongers’ desire to heat up the arms race, bring in the fiery clouds of nuclear war and induce new wind of Cold War,” the broadcast stated.
“DPRK View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, May 7, ROK)


5. Indian Reactions to Bush Plan

C. Raja Mohan writes in The Hindu that both India and Russia have “responded positively” to the proposed US missile defense system. Chairman of the Congress party’s external affairs department, Natwar Singh, criticized the Indian government for its haste in endorsing the proposed nuclear doctrine of US President George Bush. Leftist parties also were critical.
“US Missile Defense Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)

Editorial in Indian media argue that the Indian government’s quick and positive response to Bush’s speech is a mistake, and many point to the PRC’s potential responses to missile defense as being negative for India. After receiving a call from US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice last week, Manoj Joshi argues, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh appeared to ignore the substance of US President Bush’s announcement and focus only on Bush’s promise to pursue nuclear arms cuts. Indian officials stated that US officials have offered the prospect of enhanced US-India military cooperation as the payoff for Indian support for President Bush’s missile defense, though the specific gains are not clear.
“Commentary on India and Missile Defense” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)
“India-US Military Cooperation” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #19)

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