NAPSNET Week in Review 10 August, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 10 August, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, August 10, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-10-august-2001/

Korea


1. Kim Jong-il’s Russian Trip

After a nine-day journey from the DPRK border to Moscow, a stay in the capital and a two-day tour of Saint Petersburg, DPRK leader Kim Jong-il met with Russian President Vladimir Putin before leaving Moscow on August 7 and headed back to the DPRK. Kim reportedly told Putin that “certain conditions” should be met before he visits Seoul for a second inter-Korean summit, including positive developments in DPRK-US relations and the DPRK’s request to the ROK to provide economic aid and including electricity. Russia’s press said on Monday that Russia was “putting up” with an extended visit by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il in a bid to persuade the US to drop its national missile defense plan.
“Kim Jong-il’s Russian Trip” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 9, US)
“DPRK on Inter-Korean Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8, ROK)
“DPRK-Russian Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, PRC)
“DPRK Leader’s RF Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, RF)
“DPRK-Russian Joint Declaration” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, US)

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il repeated a promise on August 4 to suspend ballistic missile launchings until 2003. In an eight-point “Moscow Declaration” issued after a summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kim said that his nation’s missile program “does not present a threat to nations respecting North Korea’s sovereignty.” Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told Kim that Russia would be receptive to supplying satellite-launch rockets to the DPRK but would insist on payment, either from the DPRK or through assistance from another nation.
“DPRK-Russian Joint Declaration” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, US)
“DPRK Space Launches” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, US)


2. Statements on Kim’s Russian Trip

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher expressed that the US was pleased that Russian President Vladimir Putin urged DPRK leader Kim Jong-il to visit the ROK.
“Kim Jong-il’s Seoul Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, US)
“DPRK-Russia Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, ROK)

The US National Public Radio’s Weekend All Things Considered interviewed Peter Hayes on the talks between the DPRK’s Kim Jong-il and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Hayes Interviewed on National Public Radio” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8)


3. US-DPRK Talks

The DPRK has vowed not to resume dialogue with the US unless it withdraws the items it has proposed be put on the agenda for future talks. A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry said on August 8, “We can never accept the agenda items unilaterally raised by the United States that are part of its intention to disarm and stifle the North.” A DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman told the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), that the US attitude and agenda for the talks were unacceptable and that the US was the cause of the impasse in their relations.
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 10, ROK)
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8, US)

ROK President Kim Dae-jung met with former US President Carter and stressed that the US and the DPRK should trust and engage with each other. Kim said that the DPRK wishes to improve relations with the US in order to acquire a security guarantee and develop its economy. Carter announced on Monday his readiness to facilitate the resumption of DPRK-ROK talks.
“ROK View of DPRK-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, PRC)
“DPRK-ROK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, RF)


4. US Troops in ROK

Analysts believe DPRK leader Kim Jong-il had called for withdrawal of the troops during his Moscow visit in order to mollify hardliners in the DPRK. US President Jimmy Carter said that during his meeting with DPRK leader Kim Il-sung in June 1994, Kim recognized the need for the US forces in the ROK for regional security, and pointed out the necessity of a mutual armed forces reduction. The US Department of Defense (DOD) made it clear that the issue of US troop withdrawal is strictly between the ROK and the US and is not be determined by outside demands. Kim Euy-taek, an ROK Foreign Ministry spokesman, called the presence of US troops in the ROK “a bilateral issue between the United States and the Republic of Korea.” ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that the DPRK’s latest call for withdrawal of US troops comes from its desire to hold dialogue with the US.
“US Troops in ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, US)
“US Troops in ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 9, ROK)
“DPRK’s Troop Withdrawal Demand” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, ROK)
“DPRK-Russia Pact” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, ROK)


5. Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

The first-ever inter-Korean IT complex is likely to be completed by late this year in Pyongyang by Ntrack Co. The upcoming IT complex will be constructed at a site as large as 85,800 square meters with a total floor space of 17,820 square meters.
“Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 9, ROK)


China


1. Alleged PRC Missile Sales

The Washington Times reported that the China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation has sent a dozen shipments of missile components to Pakistan. In a meeting with four US senators, PRC President Jiang Zemin acknowledged his nation’s legal shortcomings, emphasized his advocacy of a market economy and denied reports that the PRC sold missile technology to Pakistan. US Senator Joseph Biden stated, “We want to know that China is willing to abide by whatever agreements that they make, not only to the letter of the law but in the spirit of the agreement. There is little disagreement among us as to whether an agreement was made to refrain from such activity that appears to have been broken.”

“Alleged PRC Missile Sales to Pakistan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, US)
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 9, US)
“Alleged PRC Missile Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8, US)
“Alleged PRC Missile Sales” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, US)


2. PRC Statements on US Diplomacy

Jiefang Daily carried a news story summarizing Shanghai experts’ views on US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s visit to China. They had four main points on this visit.
“PRC on Powell’s Beijing Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, PRC)

PRC President Jiang Zemin, asked whether he was concerned about anti-PRC sentiment within the US Bush administration said that it is not a new problem. He added that the PRC response to US deployment of a national missile defense would be to “increase our defense capability in keeping with the development of the international situation, and we would do this for the sole purpose of self-defense. As to when and how we are going to do this.”
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 10, US)


3. US Policy on the PRC

John F. Corbett, Junior, the senior country director for the PRC in the US Defense Department, has resigned because of what colleagues describe as “dismay” at the attitude towards the PRC adopted by the new administration of US President George W. Bush. Corbett believed that the PRC military’s modernization efforts were part of a normal professionalization process, not a threat to Asia’s security.
“US Policy toward PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 10, US)

Joseph Biden, Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and three senior colleagues met for more than 90 minutes on August 6 with Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian. The delegation praised Chen for his efforts to improve relations across the Taiwan Strait.
“US Policy toward Taiwan” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, US)


4. PRC Military

Senior Colonel Su Zhirong stated that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is speeding up its technological modernization and he hailed the remarkable achievements of the army. According to Su, the PLA has made many breakthroughs in fields such as missile technology, astronautics and information technology. “The Chinese army will never take part in any arms race, nor will it seek hegemony or external expansion,” Su said.
“PRC Military Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, PRC)


5. PRC Operations Against Taiwan

The China News Service said that maneuvers involving the various branches of the PRC military in simulated attacks on an island across from Taiwan entered a decisive phase on August 3. The official PRC news agency Xinhua said that the maneuvers are a test of new strategies involving precision attacks using electronic control systems and modern intelligence gathering.
“PRC Military Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, US)
“PRC Military Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 10, US)

Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation said on Friday that the PRC state-run Voice of the Straits has jammed the broadcasts of at least two Taiwanese radio stations by using the same frequencies.
“PRC Jamming of Taiwan Radio” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 10, US)


6. Cross-Straits Relations

Taiwan General Tang Yao-ming, chief of the General Staff, cautioned on August 7 against the PRC’s “two-pronged” strategy in dealing with the island. On the one hand, he said, the PRC was wooing Taiwan businesses to the mainland while amassing a major war chest to buy more arms that could be used against the island.
“Cross-Straits Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8, US)

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian on Friday pledged his support for the “one China” principle outlined by his predecessors, clarifying his views on cross-Straits relations with the PRC.
“Cross-Straits Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 10, US)


Japan


1. Australia-US-Japan Security Talks

The US has backed an Australian plan for three-way talks to encourage Japan to do more to maintain security in the Asia Pacific. Australian media reported that Japan broadly endorsed the plan for three-way talks. The US and Australia revealed that they were looking to extend the network of military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to include four-way talks on regional security with Japan and the ROK. The Australian commented that the Australian-US alliance is undergoing a period of transition in which new expectations will be levied on Australia.
“Australia-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8)
“PRC, Japanese Reactions to Security Proposal” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8)
“Commentary on US-Australia Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 8)


2. PRC View of US-Australian Security Talks

PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said that the PRC is concerned about the proposed regular multilateral security talks among the US, Japan and Australia.
“PRC View of US-Australian Security Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 6, US)


Russia


1. RF-PRC Relations

Aleksandr Lukin on RF-PRC relations stated that extremist assessments of the RF-PRC Treaty on Good-Neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation signed this mid-July in Moscow are wrong. In Lukin’s opinion, the treaty is a full-fledged program to preserve the postwar system of international law threatened by certain acts of the US and NATO.
“RF-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, RF)

Joint exercises of RF border guards and a crew of a border patrol boat and PRC border guards were held at the Blagoveshchensk part of the RF-PRC border to improve interaction in apprehension of border violators.
“Joint RF-PRC Border Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, RF)


2. RF-Japan Border Cooperation

RF border guards in Vladivostok were for the first time to host “Tsugaru” and “Esana,” ships of the Japanese Maritime Security Agency. They were to rehearse joint efforts to provide for functionality of a vessel and life rescue at sea, as well as to apprehend border violators.
“RF-Japan Border Cooperation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, RF)


South Asia


1. US Sanctions

C. Raja Mohan writes that the Bush administration has sharpened the debate in the US between those willing to aid Indian and Pakistani command and control of their nuclear arsenals in the name of security while others object under the principle of nonproliferation. US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christina Rocca said the US was reviewing nuclear-related sanctions against India and Pakistan, but that the democracy-related sanctions against Pakistan would remain in place until democracy was fully restored. The Hindu argues that the US wants to reorganize its relations with all the states of South Asia on a stand-alone manner, independent from its relations with other regional states.
“US Sanctions and Nonproliferation Concerns” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


2. Pakistani Domestic Politics

On August 14, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is expected to announce a new local government system, including a package devolving financial and political powers to local bodies. Provincial and district governments will be barred from making new appointments until the completion of the transition period on June 30, 2002.
“Domestic Politics” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf gave approval for an offensive to begin against terrorists in Pakistan, directing that Rangers and paramilitary troops be used to aid police in a clamp down on militant groups.
“Domestic Terrorism Measures” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)

Mohammad Anwar Khan, a former Major General who retired to become a candidate, has been elected by the electoral college as President of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
“Kashmir” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


3. Indian Domestic Politics

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee offered to resign his post amid criticism in the aftermath of the Agra summit. Reports attributed Vajpayee’s offer to resign as an attempt to distract the government from a probe into the possible role of the Prime Minister’s Office in the growing UTI scam. Vajpayee withdrew his offer to resign. Ranjit Bhushan writes that while Vajpayee has survived this political storm, the voices within the BJP and NDA are growing increasingly critical of him.
“Domestic Politics” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


4. Indian Military

The Dawn reports that a US journal has quoted Indian defense ministry officials as stating that India was near buying its first ballistic missile defense system from Russia.
“Russian BMD Systems” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)

The Hindu reports that with the failure at the Agra summit to move forward, India’s armed forces perceive the need to reduce violence in Kashmir to contribute to a political solution. The Indian Army is deploying 3,000 Rashtriya Rifles troops to Kashmir to combat militants; they will relieve border duties from regular troops. The All-Parties Hurriyat Conference expressed its willingness to enter into talks with India’s designated interlocutor between the government and Kashmir, K.C. Pant.
“Kashmir Issues” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


5. India-PRC Relations

At the conclusion of the India-China Joint Working Group on the boundary issue, The Hindu reports that there is no indication that progress was made towards resolving their differences.

“India-PRC Border Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


6. Regional Politics

C. Raja Mohan writes that recent high-level contact between the US, Russia and the PRC introduce a greater degree of uncertainty for India’s security environment, though the current domestic preoccupation with Pakistan has overshadowed these developments. Suhanshu Ranade writes that the US believes that “for the next five years, developments in Pakistan are likely to have a greater impact on [US] interests than those in India.”
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


Security


1. Great Power Diplomacy

Constantine Menges, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, argues in the Washington Post that the US should be concerned about the dual-track diplomacy that Russia and the PRC use with the US and between themselves because they seek from the West vitally needed economic benefits while using political and covert means to oppose the US on security issues and to divide America from its allies.
“Russia-PRC-US Triangular Relations” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)


2. US Space Policy

Former Chief of Staff of US Air Force Michael Ryan declared that the US is likely to deploy offensive and defensive weapons in outer space to protect its interests there.
“Weapons Deployment in Outer Space” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, PRC)


Nuclear Weapons


1. Alleged Russian Missile Test

The Washington Times reported that a road-mobile Russian SS-25 long-range missile with a new jet-powered last stage was launched from central Russia two weeks ago and reached its target on the Russian Far East peninsula of Kamchatka.
“Alleged Russian Missile Test” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)


2. South Asia Nuclear Issues

M.R. Srinivasan writes in The Hindu that there is no nuclear parity between India and Pakistan because while there will be extensive damage and death from a nuclear exchange, Pakistan has few targets and so “India will survive and come out the winner.”
“India-Pakistan Nuclear Parity” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)

The US-based India Abroad reported that a recent report by RAND’s Ashley Tellis states that India does not intend to build a ready nuclear arsenal, but neither will it rollback its nuclear program. Instead, India prefers to keep its weapons components stored separately under strict command and control.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


3. Proliferation Issues

A German firm has been accused of exporting to India components used in the construction of a launcher for the Agni medium-range missile. Abu Siddique, a London-based exporter, has been accused of exporting to Pakistan several items that could be used to make weapons of mass destruction.
“Weapons Exports to South Asia” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #32)


Ballistic Missile Defense


1. US BMD Program

The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization confirmed that a test warhead was destroyed by an anti-missile weapon in the recent missile defense system test partly because a beacon on the target signaled its location during much of the flight.

“US BMD Test” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)

The US House Armed Services subcommittee approved missile defense spending for fiscal 2002 that will total $8.16 billion for research and development. The total is $135 million less than what US President George W. Bush had requested, one area trimmed was a $28 million increase sought for space-based laser development.
“US BMD Program” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)


2. US Statements on BMD

US Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral Craig Quigley reported that work on missile defense may conflict with an arms control treaty as early as this winter, though he was not specific about the timing or type of missile defense work that could violate the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty. US House of Representatives minority leader Democrat Richard Gephardt accused the Bush administration of an obsession with missile defense and of pursuing a unilateralist approach to world affairs that risks antagonizing Russia and undermining relations with Europe.
“US Statements on BMD” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)


3. US Joint Research on TMD

The US is cooperating closely with at least six of its allies including Germany, Japan, Italy and Israel to conduct joint research and development of a theatre missile defense system (TMD). These research programs will play an important role in the US’s comprehensive, multi-layer missile defense system.
“US Joint Research on TMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 7, PRC)


4. US-Russia Talks

US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice stated that she had presented to Russian President Vladimir Putin the US blueprint for moving forward on cutting their nuclear weapons arsenals and for the deployment of limited missile defenses. Rice said that she was optimistic that the US and Russia could reach an agreement regarding the US deployment of missile defenses. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said, “The Russian President has reaffirmed our position in support of the ABM Treaty as an inalienable component of strategic stability in the world in his talks with George Bush in Genoa. We did not hear from Mrs. Rice any new arguments to cause us to review our fundamental approach to the 1972 Treaty.”
“US-Russia Talks on ABM” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)
“US-Russia Talks” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)

Robert E. Hunter writes Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently realized that as long as the US was incapable of deploying a missile defense system that would affect the Russian arsenal within ten years, there was no point in blocking the US from beginning its work on the system.
“Commentary” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)


5. US-PRC Talks

US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell met separately with PRC President Jiang Zemin and Prime Minister Zhu Rongji in the Bush administration’s highest-level talks yet, but was unable to make headway on the PRC’s opposition to even a limited missile defense. Regardless of Powell’s statements, writes Michael O’Hanlon, the current US Defense Department budget indicates the US is seeking to ultimately deploy at least 1,000 defensive interceptors capable of shooting down long-range missile warheads and recent statements by President George Bush and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice indicate a desire to abandon the 1972 ABM Treaty and other arms control regimes.
“US-PRC Talks” (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #30)

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